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Yay For Statistical Probability


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#1 Suko

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 09:21 AM

I got the feeling I had played a LOT of Terra Therma since the stat reset...I guess I wasn't wrong. Just look at that distribution. Terra and Crimson are almost double the next most common map and almost 4x more common than most of the other maps.

They don't still have these maps seeded more heavily than the others, do they!?

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#2 Lord Perversor

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 09:26 AM

16 HPG Manifold
17 Caustic Valley
19 Canyon network.

Terra therma and Crimson strait at 12-13 the same number as tourmaline River city and Forest colony.

Just play a bit more and they will eventually balance i hope.

P.S: But yes i do noticed the MM seems to love to launch players in a streak of the same map/maps each day.

#3 Charons Little Helper

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 09:28 AM

Law of Large Numbers - it'll even out eventually, you just don't have enough numbers yet. Likely it just seems to launch you on the same map in streaks, because you notice when that happens.

#4 Sug

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 12:46 PM

View PostCharons Little Helper, on 02 April 2014 - 09:28 AM, said:

Law of Large Numbers - it'll even out eventually, you just don't have enough numbers yet. Likely it just seems to launch you on the same map in streaks, because you notice when that happens.


Herp derp archived stats show I landed on Tera Therma almost twice as much as some of the other maps.

TT = 406 times

Other maps = 230 - 280 times.

Canyon = 369.

If I remember correctly when a new map comes out it used to be "weighted" in the rotation so it could be tested more.

Edited by Sug, 02 April 2014 - 12:48 PM.


#5 WVAnonymous

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 01:00 PM

Posted Image

Edited for fixing link...

Edited by WVAnonymous, 02 April 2014 - 01:05 PM.


#6 Veranova

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 05:18 PM

View PostSug, on 02 April 2014 - 12:46 PM, said:


Herp derp archived stats show I landed on Tera Therma almost twice as much as some of the other maps.

TT = 406 times

Other maps = 230 - 280 times.

Canyon = 369.

If I remember correctly when a new map comes out it used to be "weighted" in the rotation so it could be tested more.

Archived stats are really bad though, as they didn't start tracking those stats until well in to Open Beta, AND there were long periods of weighting toward maps like Terra, so they're skewed. Weighting is a practice PGI hasn't done in a while, presumably due to a growing player-base meaning they don't need to weight it to get the numbers.

My map drops are now quite even since reset, although I've only got about double the games of ShadowVFX myself.
It will balance out over time.

#7 CycKath

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 05:25 PM

I was all prepared to agree but when I checked my post-reset stats, yes Mordor was most frequent, but rest are much more even. That said, still getting instances of like 4-5 matches in a literal row in Terra Therma, which is as always galling.

Forest Colony 56
Frozen City 51
Caustic Valley 79
River City 59
Forest Colony Snow 45
Frozen City Night 64
River City Night 54
Alpine Peaks 73
Tourmaline Desert 86
Canyon Network 84
Terra Therma 97
Crimson Strait 78
HPG Manifold 51

#8 Zerberus

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 06:20 PM

Map Name Matches Forest Colony 16
Frozen City 3
Caustic Valley 19
River City 12
Forest Colony Snow 17
Frozen City Night 14
River City Night 14
Alpine Peaks 30
Tourmaline Desert 20
Canyon Network 14
Terra Therma 27
Crimson Strait 32
HPG Manifold 28


Haven`t gotten much playtime in since the reset, but It would appear from teh difference in overall stats that it is in fact more luck of the draw than anything else.... Thougt I agree that streaks seem somewhat common..

Edited by Zerberus, 02 April 2014 - 06:24 PM.


#9 CheeseThief

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 06:22 PM

Don't forget to add the 'alternate lighting' versions of the maps together together.

Forest Colony and Forest Colony Snow are effectively the same map and are weighted as such, because of how much whining there was about getting endless amounts of River City maps when it was the only map with two versions.

CycKath for example has 51+45=96 games on Forest Colony and 97 on Terra therma, which is about right.

Edited by CheeseThief, 02 April 2014 - 06:22 PM.


#10 Water Bear

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 06:51 PM

It has already been said, but the law of large numbers probably applies here since I assume map selection is based on an RNG using the same distribution each time, which I assume to be the uniform distribution.

It is also true that, with a uniform distribution, the outcome you listed is no more likely than getting nothing but forest colony each time.

#11 Bilbo

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Posted 03 April 2014 - 06:19 AM

Forest Colony 21
Frozen City 16
Caustic Valley 46
River City 21
Forest Colony Snow 16
Frozen City Night 23
River City Night 17
Alpine Peaks 38
Tourmaline Desert 43
Canyon Network 43
Terra Therma 35
Crimson Strait 46
HPG Manifold 36

#12 WVAnonymous

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Posted 03 April 2014 - 08:48 AM

I am clearly not getting enough time in since the stats reset...

#13 CycKath

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Posted 03 April 2014 - 02:26 PM

View PostWVAnonymous, on 03 April 2014 - 08:48 AM, said:

I am clearly not getting enough time in since the stats reset...


LOL, aside from volume, I'm really not the best example for anything, with a post K/D of 0.47 (vs my archived total of 0.48) but presently I average 10-15 matches a night, maybe more on the weekends even ignoring the recent challenges. I have a very short window each night after getting my kids to sleep, I have a lot of 'Mechs left to master, my Phoenix premium time is counting down and I quit a match as soon I die to start try and avoid any slack time though.

#14 80sGlamRockSensation David Bowie

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Posted 03 April 2014 - 04:39 PM

Forest Colony - 2
River City - 1
Frozen City Night - 2
Alpine - 1
HPG Manifold - 1


Those are my statistics, anyway.

#15 Col Jaime Wolf

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Posted 03 April 2014 - 04:57 PM

seems like im gettin mordor alot will have to check my stats but i just got it 5 times in a row over different game types.......

****** hate that map

#16 Widowmaker1981

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 03:26 AM

Map Name Matches Wins Losses Ratio Time
Forest Colony 8 6 2 3.00 00:48:02
Frozen City 12 7 5 1.40 00:55:18
Caustic Valley 11 8 3 2.67 00:55:58
River City 12 5 7 0.71 01:01:52
Forest Colony Snow 6 0 6 0.00 00:32:46
Frozen City Night 7 4 3 1.33 00:37:42
River City Night 7 4 3 1.33 00:39:35
Alpine Peaks 25 14 11 1.27 03:08:56
Tourmaline Desert 23 14 9 1.56 02:26:10
Canyon Network 13 5 7 0.71 01:19:14
Terra Therma 11 5 6 0.83 00:52:53
Crimson Strait 11 5 6 0.83 01:06:08
HPG Manifold 24 13 11 1.18 02:08:08


defo not getting terra therma much.. which i would massively prefer to getting alpine (worst.map.ever) and HPG (good, but terrible invisible terrain) all the damn time

Edited by Widowmaker1981, 04 April 2014 - 03:27 AM.


#17 TexAce

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 05:13 AM

There is something else I noticed, Frozen City is one of the least played maps of all, for all players here, including me. Thats more weird.

Forest Colony 6
Frozen City 2
Caustic Valley 8
River City 3
Forest Colony Snow 4
Frozen City Night 3
River City Night 5
Alpine Peaks 7
Tourmaline Desert 10
Canyon Network 12
Terra Therma 15
Crimson Strait 12
HPG Manifold 5


However I hate having mordor 7 times more than frozen city

Edited by TexAss, 04 April 2014 - 05:17 AM.






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