I predict CW will start after the battle of Tukayyid. That’s right; I predict we won’t see CW until the timeline matches May 22, 3052. Whether we have another ~2 years or if they’ll advance the timeline, I don’t know. This also means we’ll effectively miss both Clan invasion waves.
I have several reasons for thinking this.
- The first and second waves are supposed to be blitzkriegs. With our current experience and knowledge of the clans this is impossible. Where we to be involved in the invasion, IS could battle the Clans to an early stalemate or at least slow them down significantly. This would cause a de-sync with the timeline and lore (something PGI does NOT have creative license over).
- How would we feel if we were allowed to battle the Clans from day 1, win, yet still expected to fall back because some storyline blueblood keeps losing? We players successfully defend every planet except for the battles we are not allowed to interfere with and those single losses cause the whole line to fall back. It does happen IRL, but how long would be satisfied with that?
- Not everyone fighting for the IS are lore fanatics and will accept to constantly get our butts kicked. IS pilots will be defecting in droves to the winning side because that’s human nature. For every one person who toughs it out because that’s how it’s supposed to be you’ll have possibly a hundred players leaving the IS side.
- Specifically with wave 2, we’re missing 3 Clans. This is relatively easy for PGI to add though and technically, we’ll need them after Tukayyid as well.
- Marik and Liao weren’t militarily involved in the Clan Invasion. I doubt those pilots would like to trade their battlemechs for assembly lines either. Post Tukayyid allows a sort of return to the “Status Quo” for the Inner Sphere. Once the Clan threat is neutralized, they are free to go back to their in-fighting again. This means everyone can go back to battling everyone else (except maybe Steiner and Davion, though those pesky Skye rebels can be bothersome). This will also work for the Clans; technically the Tukayyid truce line is a horizontal line @ Tukayyid. Nothing really stops the Clans from continuing their expansion above that line further into Steiner and Kurita space.
It is for these reasons I believe we’ll see CW after the battle of Tukayyid.