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My Community Warfare Prediction

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#1 CDLord HHGD

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 04:43 AM

I don’t normally do this and I can be considered a PGI White Knight. This isn’t a slight or rant or complaint against PGI either. This is just my prediction on what we can expect for CW. Here goes…

I predict CW will start after the battle of Tukayyid. That’s right; I predict we won’t see CW until the timeline matches May 22, 3052. Whether we have another ~2 years or if they’ll advance the timeline, I don’t know. This also means we’ll effectively miss both Clan invasion waves.

I have several reasons for thinking this.
  • The first and second waves are supposed to be blitzkriegs. With our current experience and knowledge of the clans this is impossible. Where we to be involved in the invasion, IS could battle the Clans to an early stalemate or at least slow them down significantly. This would cause a de-sync with the timeline and lore (something PGI does NOT have creative license over).
  • How would we feel if we were allowed to battle the Clans from day 1, win, yet still expected to fall back because some storyline blueblood keeps losing? We players successfully defend every planet except for the battles we are not allowed to interfere with and those single losses cause the whole line to fall back. It does happen IRL, but how long would be satisfied with that?
  • Not everyone fighting for the IS are lore fanatics and will accept to constantly get our butts kicked. IS pilots will be defecting in droves to the winning side because that’s human nature. For every one person who toughs it out because that’s how it’s supposed to be you’ll have possibly a hundred players leaving the IS side.
  • Specifically with wave 2, we’re missing 3 Clans. This is relatively easy for PGI to add though and technically, we’ll need them after Tukayyid as well.
  • Marik and Liao weren’t militarily involved in the Clan Invasion. I doubt those pilots would like to trade their battlemechs for assembly lines either. Post Tukayyid allows a sort of return to the “Status Quo” for the Inner Sphere. Once the Clan threat is neutralized, they are free to go back to their in-fighting again. This means everyone can go back to battling everyone else (except maybe Steiner and Davion, though those pesky Skye rebels can be bothersome). This will also work for the Clans; technically the Tukayyid truce line is a horizontal line @ Tukayyid. Nothing really stops the Clans from continuing their expansion above that line further into Steiner and Kurita space.

It is for these reasons I believe we’ll see CW after the battle of Tukayyid.

#2 Appogee

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 04:45 AM

Interesting theory.

#3 CDLord HHGD

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 06:43 AM

View PostAppogee, on 02 September 2014 - 04:45 AM, said:

Interesting theory.

True, and I do want to state that this is just a theory extrapolated from the evidence I see and know from Lore.

#4 Cord78

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 08:52 AM

Did they not already state in a post that when CW launches they will be resetting the timeline?

Ah yes found the post from Paul shortly before the Clan release date in June

http://mwomercs.com/...urning-to-3049/

Quote

We will be rolling back the timeline to 3049 for a few reasons, with the biggest of them being Community Warfare. If we stay at our current timeline of 3051: We end up well beyond the Third Wave of the Clan invasion the Free Rasalhague Republic is in dire straits, and later this year would see the completion of the Fourth Wave. This is not the essence of Community Warfare as we intended to have had when the Clan vs Inner Sphere fighting broke out in MWO.

Edited by Cord78, 02 September 2014 - 08:52 AM.


#5 LauLiao

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 08:55 AM

View PostCord78, on 02 September 2014 - 08:52 AM, said:

Did they not already state in a post that when CW launches they will be resetting the timeline?

Ah yes found the post from Paul shortly before the Clan release date in June

http://mwomercs.com/...urning-to-3049/


Good find. I also seem to remember something in a recent post mentioning the possibility of players "altering the outcome" of the clan invasion, but I could be mis-remembering something.

#6 DEMAX51

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 09:01 AM

I think, for the sake of CW and the way battles play out - they're likely to decide to say "screw lore" and let the fights for planets play out however they may. That makes all of the conjecture in the OP irrelevant and solves a lot of problems that could be caused by strictly adhering to lore (though, it will make the lore-buffs' jimmies a little rustled).

#7 Alex Warden Wolf

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 09:02 AM

View PostLauLiao, on 02 September 2014 - 08:55 AM, said:


Good find. I also seem to remember something in a recent post mentioning the possibility of players "altering the outcome" of the clan invasion, but I could be mis-remembering something.


no you´re right... one of the posts about CW , after the one above i think, stated exactly that: IS could be able to stop the invasion, if they are playing well...

Edited by Alex Warden Wolf, 02 September 2014 - 09:03 AM.


#8 Blakkstar

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 09:10 AM

The last Command Chair update pretty clearly states that the Clan Invasion will be rolling out at the beginning of CW. It would be a pretty major change in strategy for them to just bypass the invasion, as they have to have some sort of plan in mind for how the progression of CW is going to happen (I do give them that much credit).

The real question is how it's all going to work. Will players be deciding the invasion paths and outcomes, or will it be tied to the Battletech timeline? How much opportunity will factions not in the invasion corridor have to participate? What if the numbers of players per faction end up wildly unbalanced (would Liao be able to roll Marik if there's a shortage of FWL players)? How fast will planets change hands? What if the map gets really screwed up or a faction is in danger of getting wiped out?

Those are some mighty big questions, and we're supposed to get the answers Soontm.

#9 Sandpit

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 09:49 AM

I don't see there being ANY lore based timeline in CW. It's going to be an "alternate universe" type situation. I'm sure it will have a timeline, it's just not going to adhere to the original lore.

#10 Joseph Mallan

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 09:53 AM

View PostSandpit, on 02 September 2014 - 09:49 AM, said:

I don't see there being ANY lore based timeline in CW. It's going to be an "alternate universe" type situation. I'm sure it will have a timeline, it's just not going to adhere to the original lore.

It could easily adhere to the timeline of the Invasion. The main battles taking place with the prescribed units.

#11 CDLord HHGD

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 09:53 AM

Quote

MWO does not meet the current criteria for canon for the BattleTech universe. When asked, BattleTech Line Developer Herbert A. Beas II expressly confirmed in an official chat that the game would not be canonical per se[1], i.e. it would not be in a position to add events, characters or other content to the canon of the BattleTech universe.
As an official product with a valid license, MWO can be regarded as apocryphal.


Source

So no, PGi does not have the ability to change the story.

EDIT: So I misread that. PGI can change the story, but they cannot write that story into the lore books...

How many of us Loremasters would accept this though?

Edited by cdlord, 02 September 2014 - 09:54 AM.


#12 Bishop Steiner

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 09:54 AM

View Postcdlord, on 02 September 2014 - 09:53 AM, said:


Source

So no, PGi does not have the ability to change the story.

um, actually, by PGI being apocryphal, it means our action have no impact on the CANON story...so technically, they have carte blanche on changing stuff, since MWO is NOT Canon.

essentially, we are the Battletech equivalent of http://en.wikipedia....What_If_(comics)

Edited by Bishop Steiner, 02 September 2014 - 09:56 AM.


#13 CDLord HHGD

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 09:56 AM

View PostBishop Steiner, on 02 September 2014 - 09:54 AM, said:

um, actually, by PGI being apocryphal, it means our action have no impact on the CANON story...so technically, they have carte blanche on changing stuff, since MWO is NOT Canon.

Yeah, I edited my post above. ;)

#14 Bishop Steiner

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 09:59 AM

View Postcdlord, on 02 September 2014 - 09:53 AM, said:



EDIT: So I misread that. PGI can change the story, but they cannot write that story into the lore books...

How many of us Loremasters would accept this though?

it's a game.... just as mechanics have to change for fun factor, so does story. About the only guy who is a bigger lore nut than me Is Strum Wealh, and TBH, as long as it doesn't stray too far, I don't care.

At least in the past, PGI kinda always mentioned us as fighting the dozens of undocumented, battles that occurred around the Clan Invasion...just that we would not be at Wolcott, Luthien, Tukayyid, etc. I have a feeling, that will still be the case, so the actual "Universe Changing" aspects probably are beyond our grasp, anyhow.

#15 Xyroc

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 09:59 AM

View Postcdlord, on 02 September 2014 - 04:43 AM, said:

This would cause a de-sync with the timeline and lore (something PGI does NOT have creative license over).



Well not that I have read their license agreement or anything but they said in early closed beta that "the community would create their own story in essence it would be a unique timeline / universe in BT ... kind of like Spiderman vs Amazing Spiderman its the same except a little different.

Edited by Beliall, 02 September 2014 - 10:00 AM.


#16 Garandos

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 09:59 AM

Given that no PC game was or ever will be considered canon, everything can happen.

From Sarna:

Canonicity

Computer games are explicitly excluded from the list of products that contribute straight Canon to the BattleTech universe while at the same time it was stated that the IP owners are "not in total denial about these sources either"; it has also been stated that fluff from certain official, licensed products (namely certain computer games including those produced by FASA) can be assumed to be part of the shared universe as long as it is not directly contradicted, and makes sense.

So, i dont see any restrictions here.

#17 Sandpit

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 10:01 AM

View PostJoseph Mallan, on 02 September 2014 - 09:53 AM, said:

It could easily adhere to the timeline of the Invasion. The main battles taking place with the prescribed units.

Can't happen, it's already been "tainted" meaning it's no longer canon. once it's been modified from the original you can't have an exact replication.

#18 Johnny Z

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 10:15 AM

I have a question. Who is to say what is canon and what isnt? Seriously. Star wars canon had some direction from Lucas, and now some corporation if what i heard is true, but what about Mechwarrior and Battletech?

Also the OP may like lore but no game of any sort has the battles and strategy map predetermined so he is just trying to troll this game and make it as hard as possible for them to make a great strategy map from what i can tell.

Edited by Johnny Z, 02 September 2014 - 10:15 AM.


#19 CDLord HHGD

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 10:20 AM

View PostJohnny Z, on 02 September 2014 - 10:15 AM, said:

I have a question. Who is to say what is canon and what isnt? Seriously. Star wars canon had some direction from Lucas, and now some corporation if what i heard is true, but what about Mechwarrior and Battletech?

Also the OP may like lore but no game of any sort has the battles and strategy map predetermined so he is just trying to troll this game and make it as hard as possible for them to make a great strategy map from what i can tell.

I am no troll sir. I was making a prediction and some people have already pointed out counters to it so until you came in, it was a successful discussion.

The owner of the IP decides what is canon. So all those star wars novels that didn't reflect specifically what happened in the 3 then 6 movies is all non-canon. Disney gets to decide what comes next.

"Also the OP may like lore but no game of any sort has the battles and strategy map predetermined"
Except MWO where the official timeline has already bypassed the time period of the game. As some state, this can be an alternate universe or as I state, we fight, but our fights mean nothing in the grande scheme.

I provided evidence to support my prediction and you call me a troll. I ask, Who is the real troll here?

#20 Bhael Fire

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Posted 02 September 2014 - 10:27 AM

Pretty sure we'll just be locked in some quasi-timeline set loosely around the time of the Clan invasion.

Basically, the game will be permanently set in the year 3050 with a constant "see-saw" struggle between factions....at least until at some point they announce that time has progressed to 3051, then 3052, etc. There will not be a 1:1 match in the progression of time; i.e. it won't be real time. For example, it might take two years to progress one year in the game.





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