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Do Ghost Wins Happen During Peak Hours?


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#41 Prophetic

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Posted 31 December 2014 - 08:01 PM

Well here you go 20 mins to ceasefire and it's 39 v 4. So don't tell me Davion doesn't zerg cap planets on a daily basis.

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#42 StillRadioactive

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 01:40 AM

Defend your planets and zerg capping becomes impossible... which was the entire purpose of this thread. To get people to see that ghost wins don't happen when defenders are on the planet.

Hence the emphasis on peak hours.

#43 Abivard

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 02:37 AM

View PostDavers, on 31 December 2014 - 06:45 PM, said:

4% now considered 'much larger'. You must work in advertising. :D


You must have not done well in math..

Kurita has 10.73%
Davion has 14.43%
The differences is close enough to 4 percent.

Maybe if they were in dollars you could understand better,
Kurita has $10.73
Davion has $14.43
Davion has $3.70 more than Kurita, which is close to 35% more money that kurita.

But those numbers are old.

Davion is the zerg faction, plain and simple.

Edited by Abivard, 01 January 2015 - 02:38 AM.


#44 Abivard

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 02:41 AM

View PostStillRadioactive, on 01 January 2015 - 01:40 AM, said:

Defend your planets and zerg capping becomes impossible... which was the entire purpose of this thread. To get people to see that ghost wins don't happen when defenders are on the planet.

Hence the emphasis on peak hours.


Ghost capping can not occur if both defender and Attacker have the same number of 12 mans, but when one side attains a 12 man that has no matching 12 man a ghost drop will occur, Unless their are over 156 players on each side, then a ghost drop can never occur.

#45 Prophetic

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 02:50 AM

View PostStillRadioactive, on 01 January 2015 - 01:40 AM, said:

Defend your planets and zerg capping becomes impossible... which was the entire purpose of this thread. To get people to see that ghost wins don't happen when defenders are on the planet.

Hence the emphasis on peak hours.

Oh we did and u tried.

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Edited by Prophetic, 01 January 2015 - 02:51 AM.


#46 Ridir Semii

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 02:58 AM

I dunno, I am Pacific Time and during our peak hours we have to deal with a cease-fire on a daily basis.... Whose "peak hours" are you referring to this happening... I have not seen 1 single ghost drop since the initial hotfix of CW at all

#47 Driftwoood

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 03:03 AM

Well, Liao lost another planet due purely to ghost drops tonight during peak hours... forgot to save the screen cap, was busy drinking... Happy New Year! :)

Edited by Driftwoood, 01 January 2015 - 03:07 AM.


#48 Khanahar

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 03:24 AM

As a long-time Starcraft player, I'd like to complain about the negative associations assigned to the Zerg here. It's really not fair to the wonderful little brave creepy-crawlies.

:-P

#49 Dauphni

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 05:56 AM

View PostStillRadioactive, on 01 January 2015 - 01:40 AM, said:

Defend your planets and zerg capping becomes impossible...

which is exactly what you can't do as a smaller force, because you are overwhelmed by larger numbers.

#50 LightTreason

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 07:38 AM

Not a coincidence that it's Davion players who are insistent on saying ghost drops don't affect the game. You guys are the masters of this. Yesterday morning we had Salidabari (sp?) at 86 percent attacker wins, all contested battles except for the first one which was a ghost drop.. I watched progress throughout the day, and Davion had 12 defenders up against 0 attackers several times and gradually chipped the planet back to their control by ceasefire time. We keep winning the real matches, then magically the planets never turn in our favor. Maybe the number was 3 percent (I doubt it) but it's probably increased due to increased efficiency at abusing uncontested drops.

How many propaganda threads do you guys need?

Edited by LightTreason, 01 January 2015 - 07:39 AM.


#51 Alexander Steel

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 09:14 AM

If you won't defend what you take it's not the fault of the Davion Faction. It's not like you get to flip a planet to 86% and go "NO TAKE BACKS!!!!!" and suddenly the Davion's can't do anything. Oh and the phrase "abusing uncontested drops" is just stupid. Uncontested drops are a valid part of the game put in by the game dev. It's like watching a noob cry about somebody abusing torso twisting which makes them harder to kill.

View PostUite Dauphni, on 01 January 2015 - 05:56 AM, said:


which is exactly what you can't do as a smaller force, because you are overwhelmed by larger numbers.


While zerging has been a valid tactic in every war, even the Draconis Combine has more than 12 pilots they can toss at the border. When I see planets flip hard it's because factions send *0* or under 12 at best players to defend the world. Guess how fast a planet flips when NOBODY goes to defend it. Hint: Fast.

Edited by Alexander Steel, 01 January 2015 - 09:16 AM.


#52 StillRadioactive

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 02:30 PM

View PostAbivard, on 01 January 2015 - 02:41 AM, said:


Ghost capping can not occur if both defender and Attacker have the same number of 12 mans, but when one side attains a 12 man that has no matching 12 man a ghost drop will occur, Unless their are over 156 players on each side, then a ghost drop can never occur.


Incorrect, as has already been demonstrated multiple times in this thread.

You have a hard-on for Davion for no apparent reason, and you show it in every thread you enter.

Obvious troll is obvious, now GTFO.

#53 StillRadioactive

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 02:41 PM

View PostAlexander Steel, on 01 January 2015 - 09:14 AM, said:

If you won't defend what you take it's not the fault of the Davion Faction. It's not like you get to flip a planet to 86% and go "NO TAKE BACKS!!!!!" and suddenly the Davion's can't do anything. Oh and the phrase "abusing uncontested drops" is just stupid. Uncontested drops are a valid part of the game put in by the game dev. It's like watching a noob cry about somebody abusing torso twisting which makes them harder to kill.



While zerging has been a valid tactic in every war, even the Draconis Combine has more than 12 pilots they can toss at the border. When I see planets flip hard it's because factions send *0* or under 12 at best players to defend the world. Guess how fast a planet flips when NOBODY goes to defend it. Hint: Fast.


12 attackers to 0 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour

12 attackers to 12 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 12 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 12 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 12 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 12 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour

12 attackers to 24 defenders = -4 territories (-26%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 24 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 24 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 24 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 24 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour

12 attackers to 36 defenders = -6 territories (-39%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 36 defenders = -4 territories (-26%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 36 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 36 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 36 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour

Holidays not withstanding, even tiny little Liao has been able to put up at least 72 players during the hours leading up to the ceasefire, thus providing them the ability to lock both their planets out of ghost drop range.

Ghost drops only exist to prevent factions from simply not defending in order to prevent losing territory. Defend your planets and it's not a problem.

#54 Davers

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 02:45 PM

View PostAbivard, on 01 January 2015 - 02:37 AM, said:


You must have not done well in math..

Kurita has 10.73%
Davion has 14.43%
The differences is close enough to 4 percent.

Maybe if they were in dollars you could understand better,
Kurita has $10.73
Davion has $14.43
Davion has $3.70 more than Kurita, which is close to 35% more money that kurita.

But those numbers are old.

Davion is the zerg faction, plain and simple.

I was referring to the numbers advantage of Kurita+Marik+Liao vs Davion, which he described as being 'much larger' than Davion, at approximately 4%. I thought it was interesting that he believed a 4% difference in population was a significant advantage, while a 3% Ghost Drop rate was insignificant.

But it is true that those numbers are very old and are not really very useful for anything.

#55 Ridir Semii

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 02:46 PM

View PostStillRadioactive, on 01 January 2015 - 02:41 PM, said:


12 attackers to 0 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour

12 attackers to 12 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 12 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 12 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 12 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 12 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour

12 attackers to 24 defenders = -4 territories (-26%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 24 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 24 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 24 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 24 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour

12 attackers to 36 defenders = -6 territories (-39%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 36 defenders = -4 territories (-26%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 36 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 36 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 36 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour

Holidays not withstanding, even tiny little Liao has been able to put up at least 72 players during the hours leading up to the ceasefire, thus providing them the ability to lock both their planets out of ghost drop range.

Ghost drops only exist to prevent factions from simply not defending in order to prevent losing territory. Defend your planets and it's not a problem.

so where are you getting the data to state this? I see nowhere and nothing to back up your numbers... Don't take this the wrong way, but without evidence from PGI concerning this, you are just guessing at what you think the numbers are... I would like more definite proof before I can believe those numbers

#56 StillRadioactive

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 02:54 PM

View PostUminix, on 01 January 2015 - 02:46 PM, said:

so where are you getting the data to state this? I see nowhere and nothing to back up your numbers... Don't take this the wrong way, but without evidence from PGI concerning this, you are just guessing at what you think the numbers are... I would like more definite proof before I can believe those numbers


Karl Berg explained matchmaker here:
http://mwomercs.com/...72#entry4046472

This is the relevant information from that post:

Quote

At the input side, there are queues of groups per planet, per faction. Those quickly form up into pending strike teams of 12 players. That pending strike team queue is a FIFO queue that needs to wait for a pending lobby. Only one pending lobby is allowed per planet at a time, and it is at this time that the territory and game rules are selected for a match. If the territory is owned by defense, the invaders will be attacking and the defenders will be holding. If the territory is owned by the invaders, then the invaders will be holding, and the defenders will be attempting to reclaim that territory by counter attacking.



Once you know this, you can very quickly figure out that with an average match length of 25-ish minutes, and the fact that defenders stream in over time rather than coming into the queue all at once, it takes 36 players total on a planet to virtually guarantee that a defending team is found within the 10 minute waiting period that the attackers have to sit through before getting a ghost drop.

Now, there are certainly edge-cases when the times don't quite line up right and you still get one ghost drop every couple of hours, but those are spread around at random on both sides, so you end up with the 2-3% that Russ mentioned in his tweet, which is largely inconsequential since the vast majority of planets are decided by a margin of 3+ territories, and 3% is less than one territory.

Edited by StillRadioactive, 01 January 2015 - 02:55 PM.


#57 Scoops Kerensky

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 02:58 PM

Unless of course the timezones are unfriendly enough to your faction and you have enough active fronts that that isn't possible, like with Kurita. In that case yes, we literally can not muster up enough people to avoid ghost drops on our worlds. We'd like to defend them, the population doesn't exist. Just like with Liao, again I'll quote what they've seen on their front because its the same problem and Davion is _still_ abusing ghost drops with their population relative to their much smaller opponents.

View PostDriftwoood, on 30 December 2014 - 11:40 PM, said:


So here were tonight's numbers on the Liao / Davion border 2 hrs before cease fire...

TANTARA (bottom of list): Davion attacking with 44 pilots, so 3 units... though they really only needed 1... At ceasefire, the planet was 100%, hope they had fun against the turrets...

MALADAR (top of list): We were attacking with up to 4 units throughout the night (never saw 5 units, but it might have happened), against 5+ Davion defenders... though we got it up to 80% at one point, Davion successfully defended it back to 33% before ceasefire...

While I believed 4 units was enough to prevent being ghost dropped on, I'm now skeptical, as in the course of 1 match (which we successfully defended), the planet went from 60% (9/15) to 33% (5/15) = 4 losses... now, it could be that our group of 8 pushed the number of pilots up to 5 units (60+) and the other 4 teams lost... but I don't know... my unit won 4/5 tonight, all on defense unfortunately... I guess everyone else was getting stomped?

Boy, I wish we could see battle results somewhere on the planet's page to put all this to bed...
Posted Image


The current game is stacked so that numbers = winning in CW. We have the evidence for that, and we can keep taking nightly screenshots to prove it. You keep trying to frame this as a conscious decision of our playerbase not to show up when that isn't true. It isn't that we won't show up, it's that our playerbase *doesn't exist* to match your numbers in this timezone.

#58 Ridir Semii

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 03:27 PM

StillRadioactive, thank you, but the part you quoted here:

Karl Berg explained matchmaker here:
http://mwomercs.com/...72#entry4046472

This is the relevant information from that post:

Quote

If the territory is owned by defense, the invaders will be attacking and the defenders will be holding. If the territory is owned by the invaders, then the invaders will be holding, and the defenders will be attempting to reclaim that territory by counter attacking.

If this is the case, then How is it we are dropping as attackers on a blue section of the world and still getting Hold Territory, and vise-versa.... weird stuff..... again, thank s for getting me that info, much abliged, and yes I read through that post


On a side note, since the first CW hotfix, I have not seen a single ghost drop, and I play at some random times

Edited by Uminix, 01 January 2015 - 03:28 PM.


#59 StillRadioactive

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 04:01 PM

View PostUminix, on 01 January 2015 - 03:27 PM, said:

StillRadioactive, thank you, but the part you quoted here:

Karl Berg explained matchmaker here:
http://mwomercs.com/...72#entry4046472

This is the relevant information from that post:
[/font]
If this is the case, then How is it we are dropping as attackers on a blue section of the world and still getting Hold Territory, and vise-versa.... weird stuff..... again, thank s for getting me that info, much abliged, and yes I read through that post


On a side note, since the first CW hotfix, I have not seen a single ghost drop, and I play at some random times


Beats me. That shouldn't be happening. Maybe screenshot it and send in a bug report?

#60 Gorgo7

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Posted 01 January 2015 - 05:09 PM

View PostStillRadioactive, on 01 January 2015 - 02:54 PM, said:


Karl Berg explained matchmaker here:
http://mwomercs.com/...72#entry4046472



Yes, ghost dropping by a superior force is decisive.
36 defenders - 60+ attackers

T-2 hrs 'till cease fire,
0 mins first match launches
5 mins second match launches(could be 1 min or 10 min, 5 is the mean)
10 mins third match launches, all defenders in match.
20 min first ghost drop
25 min first match exits and resets, fourth match launches
30 min second match exits and resets, fifth match launches
35 min third match exits and resets, sixth match launches, all defenders in match.
45 min second ghost drop.
50 min seventh match launches.
55 min eight match launches.
60 min ninth match launches.

Rinse, repeat, two ghost drops per hour. The defenders may never counter attack during this time as an attacking force is always in que waiting for a fight and have been for more than 5 seconds and some territories are still "Held" by the defenders. (see Karl Berg)
Thus by the 60 minute mark six matches have been played and two have been ghost dropped. Three are ongoing.
All victories and ghost drops by the attackers count towards the victory conditions.
All victories by the defenders simply prevent the loss of the territory they were defending.
The defenders are never in a position to counter attack until the attackers have acquired more territories then they have groups waiting for in match. In this case five territories.
So, in the second last hour before the ceasefire the defenders may not counter attack.
Given that they are ghosting two per hour the last two hours they gain four uncontested sections of the world and given that they are competent players they win 2/5 of the matches they are in. (fifteen or 18 matches = 6 or 8 wins,over the two hours at the end of the day).
That means that they will reliably pick up 10 or 12 sections of a world they are attacking in two hours.
The system is fine in an equal attack/defense basis. The defenders make piles of cash and the attackers have more opportunity to take the planet.

But, as in real life, God favours the big battalions.

Edited by Gorgo7, 01 January 2015 - 05:14 PM.






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