14 replies to this topic

[MechWarrior3671771]

If I enter a bad losing streak, but am routinely in the top 3 for match score/kills/damage, does that mean ELO is expecting me to carry? I don't mind so much (yet) but is it a good sign that I am getting better? Or just random noise?

[Nik Reaper]

Hehe, hard to say, one thing is there though, how's is your w/l ratio? if it's more than 50% wins the match maker is after you, and every once in a while he decides it's time to take radical steps to get you back to a 50% ... had a loss streak of 12 games once even though my score was decent for the most of them.

Sence Elo is per weight class, if you get 4 losses in a row try a different class a few games , it might help .

Edited by Nik Reaper, 18 April 2015 - 09:22 AM.

[Vlad Striker]

As my thoughts sometimes 2-3 good fighters deploy in team of 9-10 avarage or new. But opposin team have avarage level.

[JC Daxion]

I have that happen to me a lot, go on a loosing streak, and in the top 3.. and yup, that is what it means.. Carry more!!!! Or perhaps use your knowledge and try to work on some tactics to improve the match to your favor.

My record streak is 23 i think.. was a baaaaaaad day Most were just total rolls too.. the funny thing was my night flipped late night, and i had a huge string of very close great matches.

But look at it this way, sometimes if you pull a few kills and an assist, and some decent damage, and the rest of the team was under 200, you had a great match, and be happy with how you did, verse getting all hung up on the win. For me this game is about the little things, and most important having fun. If the losses are wearing on you, take a break for a day or two.. most likely you need it. Some days i just play a couple matches and can tell it won't be a fun day, so i stop, then come back in a few days and have a blast.

[Repasy Cooper]

The more you carry, the worse it will get. That's how the elo works.

Honestly, I don't care if I win or lose, so long as I can keep slowly rising my k/d. And by getting thrown in with a bunch of new players, you can help them get better.

[MechWarrior3671771]

LOL. I'm That Guy that led the assault lance into a dead end on HPG. Thought there was an entrance there... Match was 0-8 before we finally found our way inside. Guess I better up my game

Edited by Fenrisulvyn, 18 April 2015 - 01:36 PM.

[Satan n stuff]

Nik Reaper, on 18 April 2015 - 09:21 AM, said:

Hehe, hard to say, one thing is there though, how's is your w/l ratio? if it's more than 50% wins the match maker is after you, and every once in a while he decides it's time to take radical steps to get you back to a 50% ... had a loss streak of 12 games once even though my score was decent for the most of them.

Sence Elo is per weight class, if you get 4 losses in a row try a different class a few games , it might help .

It's not so much about win/loss ratio as you might think, you do tend to get a 50/50 average over time, but that's just statistics at work. The matchmaker will try to get you a fair match based on everyone's elo score, and it will predict a winner based on each team's total elo. If you win or lose when the matchmaker said you would, your elo barely changes. If your team or the enemy team manage to beat the odds, your elo gets adjusted a lot more, the logic behind this being that the numbers were clearly wrong. This however has absolutely nothing to do with your win/loss rate, because you're being given matches effectively at random due to player availability so you are expected to win approximately half the time regardless.

Get a loss when it should have been a clear victory, that might buy you a slight edge for a few matches, but you can only lose 50 points per match and 50 on an entire team isn't much. Same thing if you win when you should have gotten stomped, matches get slightly harder on average. This only really starts adding up when you're playing with the same group for a while, or when you get a lot of grossly mismatched games and we've been told the latter doesn't happen nearly as often as it's claimed.
Anyway it needs to add up quite a bit to get those long strings of wins and losses people are always complaining about. Run small groups or solo and you'll rarely have that particular problem.

There's also an issue with mismatched elo in a group, have a newb in your group and you'll get slightly easier opponents, but you'll also have to carry the newb on your team. Have some top tier player in a mediocre group, their matches get a lot harder because the one player will have to carry potentially the entire team. This can also cause strings of wins and losses, and if you're playing for a while with people entering and leaving the group it can look a lot like the previous issue. People switching weight classes can also cause this because their elo changes, and just switching to a better or worse mech, well that one should be obvious.

I actually know a guy who keeps track of what kind of matches he usually gets with specific players, it doesn't give you an absolute measure of skill but it's a good way to find out who is swinging the pendulum which way. I was pleasantly surprised when he told me that playing with me was effectively hardmode. ( Disclaimer: Not his exact words. )

Edited by Satan n stuff, 19 April 2015 - 02:05 AM.

[Tarogato]

I'm working on some data to prove that Elo isn't working optimally.

If you're interested, grab a screencap of every match you play (solo, group, CW) for the next 100+ games, however many you feel like. PM me for an email address.

[NRP]

If you go on a losing streak, it means you suck. Don't make it more complicated than it is. And don't blame the matchmaker. Take responsibly for your actions.

[ShadowbaneX]

NRP, on 18 April 2015 - 03:10 PM, said:

If you go on a losing streak, it means you suck. Don't make it more complicated than it is. And don't blame the matchmaker. Take responsibly for your actions.

What?!

That's total bs.

If I lose, it's totally because my team didn't do their part. Also, when I die it's because the enemy has OP weapons, regardless of whether it's IS or Clan weaponry that killed me.

[Skarlock]

Fenrisulvyn, on 18 April 2015 - 09:17 AM, said:

If I enter a bad losing streak, but am routinely in the top 3 for match score/kills/damage, does that mean ELO is expecting me to carry? I don't mind so much (yet) but is it a good sign that I am getting better? Or just random noise?

It doesn't mean anything. You have to analyze why you lost each game and look for a pattern. So you get top 3 in match score/damage/kills. Ok. Are you in an assault mech? If you are, then it's perfectly normal for you to get top 3 since there's usually 3 assaults per game, and assaults have the biggest guns, and *should* be expected to carry the most. It shouldn't be the locust pilot who gets 1k damage and 7 kills (but it can be if that pilot is going against players way under their skill level).

It could be because the team as a whole got way too low damage. It could be the team as a whole did a lot of damage but got few kills, thus they were doing incredibly inefficient damage. It could be because of disconnects, or because you had 3 players who did 0 damage, or a team killer, or any number of other reasons. The most important thing is to get better, so as your skill improves, you're outpacing your elo rank and you keep on winning and making those cbills.

[Tim East]

Skarlock, on 18 April 2015 - 04:21 PM, said:

It shouldn't be the locust pilot who gets 1k damage and 7 kills (but it can be if that pilot is going against players way under their skill level).

You don't even know how many times doing this has made me sad because I didn't get that 8th kill. Well, technically never, since I haven't broken 1k, but pretty close more than a few times. And now you know. And knowing is half the battle. Too bad I don't get 4 kills just for knowing.

[TheCaptainJZ]

ELO is funny because you might experience disasterous matches but in the long long run, it does work quite well for most people.

Good news is Russ said in the latest town hall that they want to adjust how ELO works so even in losses, if you had a high match score, it won't punish you as much.

[Tim East]

TheCaptainJZ, on 18 April 2015 - 09:23 PM, said:

Good news is Russ said in the latest town hall that they want to adjust how ELO works so even in losses, if you had a high match score, it won't punish you as much.

Correct me if I am misunderstanding, but won't that just make the MM try to force you to try to carry more games before lowering your elo if you try to carry but only partially succeed?

[TheCaptainJZ]

Tim East, on 18 April 2015 - 09:33 PM, said:

Correct me if I am misunderstanding, but won't that just make the MM try to force you to try to carry more games before lowering your elo if you try to carry but only partially succeed?

I forget what exactly he said but he did mention that particular issue with the current implementation. I don't think it's something they are doing in the near near future, but they do want to improve it so as long as they can find a way to do that, it's all good.