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Battle Of Tukayyid ~ Inner Quirks Verses Clantech / Clan Qualitative Edge, Which Will Win The Day On Tukayyid.

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Poll: Battle of TUKAYYID ~ Predictive Analytics (184 member(s) have cast votes)

Who will win the Battle of TUKAYYID?

  1. Inner Sphere (57 votes [30.98%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.98%

  2. Clans (57 votes [30.98%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.98%

  3. PGI (28 votes [15.22%])

    Percentage of vote: 15.22%

  4. There will be no winner. (20 votes [10.87%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.87%

  5. EVERYONE wins, CW has arrived! (22 votes [11.96%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.96%

What will be the single determining factor for the BoT "winner"?

  1. Numeric Superiority (45 votes [24.46%])

    Percentage of vote: 24.46%

  2. Qualitative Superiority (45 votes [24.46%])

    Percentage of vote: 24.46%

  3. Matchmaker Mode Mechanism (M4) changes (24 votes [13.04%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.04%

  4. Round the clock, 72-hour Faction representation (27 votes [14.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 14.67%

  5. Mercenary TEMPCON "Hires" (24 votes [13.04%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.04%

  6. Superior Faction PERMCONs (11 votes [5.98%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.98%

  7. Other (please explain in post below) (8 votes [4.35%])

    Percentage of vote: 4.35%

What would permit a "better" second Event at some point during CW BETA Phase 2?

  1. Clan recruitment/retention of new gamers (to offset Inner Sphere numeric superiority.) (28 votes [15.22%])

    Percentage of vote: 15.22%

  2. Better Inner Sphere Quirks to offset current Clan Qualitative advantages. (16 votes [8.70%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.70%

  3. Tweaks to M4 to permit greater than or less than 50% "Attack" mode selection when an "Attacking" Faction is continuously outnumbered. (31 votes [16.85%])

    Percentage of vote: 16.85%

  4. Greater PGI publicity that an Event has been scheduled. (14 votes [7.61%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.61%

  5. Better prizes offered for participation in the Event (21 votes [11.41%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.41%

  6. A series of mini-Events first, to better gauge population impacts and game mechanism effects on Event dynamics. (56 votes [30.43%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.43%

  7. Other (please provide details in a post below) (18 votes [9.78%])

    Percentage of vote: 9.78%

(Question added 65hrs prior to Event) Would you support PGI "restarting" the Event after a Cycle or 2, if it were going "off the rails" for whatever reason?

  1. Yes (41 votes [30.60%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.60%

  2. No (47 votes [35.07%])

    Percentage of vote: 35.07%

  3. Play at lease 4-cycles to gain a bulk of data, then reset the Event to STARTEX if needed. (22 votes [16.42%])

    Percentage of vote: 16.42%

  4. The Event should ALWAYS have been the best of three mini-events (1-day, 3-cycles per mini-event) (7 votes [5.22%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.22%

  5. IlKhan Paul can do NO wrong! The Event is already a SUCCESS! Bow and pay homage to the ilKhan!!! (10 votes [7.46%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.46%

  6. First Lord Russ has never known Event Defeat! (It is completely immaterial that we have never had an Event previously.) Stand fast at your Ramparts and Bastions my Inner Sphere brethren, Russ has this all under control. (7 votes [5.22%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.22%

(Multiple answers permitted: Question added 54hrs prior to Event) What will be the effect of PGI's inclusion of "DEFENSIVE" Ghost Drops (where the goal is to destroy 3-Enemy Waypoint Markers) into CW in time for the Event?

  1. There will be no significant impact to the Event. (54 votes [36.99%])

    Percentage of vote: 36.99%

  2. There will be inconsequential impacts which will NOT effect Event results. (18 votes [12.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.33%

  3. The impacts will be significant and may effect Event results. (19 votes [13.01%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.01%

  4. The impacts will be VERY significant and most definitely WILL effect Event results. (16 votes [10.96%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.96%

  5. While NOT in favor of this particular change, allowing BOTH Offensive and Defensive Ghost Drops is a VALID addition to the game as it affords ALL gamers the opportunity to gain Ghost Drop WIN COUNTERS rather than just sit in interminable queues. (16 votes [10.96%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.96%

  6. I am both in favor of the Defensive Ghost Drops and believe it is a VALID mechanism that will be value-added during the Event. (17 votes [11.64%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.64%

  7. Other (please explain in post below) (6 votes [4.11%])

    Percentage of vote: 4.11%

Has the Inner Sphere numeric superiority been nullified by PGI's Event design?

  1. Yes, not one Ghost Drop has occurred with ALL matches today pitting an equal number of Clanners against an equal number of Inner Sphere. (26 votes [59.09%])

    Percentage of vote: 59.09%

  2. No, the Inner Sphere's numeric superiority is still gaining them sectors/wins. (6 votes [13.64%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.64%

  3. I am unsure if Ghost Drops are occurring. (10 votes [22.73%])

    Percentage of vote: 22.73%

  4. Other (please provide comments in a post below) (2 votes [4.55%])

    Percentage of vote: 4.55%

Has the Inner Sphere Light Mech advantage (Light Rush) been nullified by the Inner Sphere restriction to only "Defense" and "Counterattack" mission types?

  1. Yes, the Inner Sphere Light Rush was primarily the DECISIVE means the Inner Sphere had to easily win "Attack" mission. Since there are ZERO Inner Sphere "Attack" missions in the Event, the IS Light Rush has been nullified. (21 votes [47.73%])

    Percentage of vote: 47.73%

  2. No, the Inner Sphere Light Mechs/Light Rush is still significantly used to good effect by the Inner Sphere during the Event. This Inner Sphere advantage remains undiluted by Event design. (5 votes [11.36%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.36%

  3. It depends... while the Inner Sphere can not Zerg the OPFOR gens, when employed by practiced and proficient 12-man Teams, IS Lights are being very effective in contributing to IS Event victories. (15 votes [34.09%])

    Percentage of vote: 34.09%

  4. Other (please provide details in a post below) (3 votes [6.82%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.82%

With the IS quantitative advantage and Light Rush largely nullified, what remains at the heart of the Event's metagame?

  1. ClanTech will be the decisive factor in the Event's conclusion. (11 votes [25.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 25.00%

  2. Inner Sphere Quirks will be the decisive factor in the Event's conclusion. (9 votes [20.45%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.45%

  3. The prevalence of Clan Gamers having INVESTED real-world money into their Mech, this P2Win dynamic will be the decisive factor in the Event's conclusion. (1 votes [2.27%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.27%

  4. The Inner Sphere proves to the MWO "Gateway" Factions for gamers new to the game. This dilutes Inner Sphere gamer-proficiency to the point where it will be the decisive factor in the Event's conclusion. (11 votes [25.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 25.00%

  5. Clan gamers are just better. No further factor need be considered in the Event's conclusion. (1 votes [2.27%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.27%

  6. Inner Sphere gamers are just better. No further factors need be considered in the Event's conclusion. (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. The weight of effort brought by leading Mercenary Corps Units will be the decisive factor in the Event's conclusion. (8 votes [18.18%])

    Percentage of vote: 18.18%

  8. Other (please provide further details in the posts below. (3 votes [6.82%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.82%

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#1 Connor Sellock

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 08:02 AM

(FIRST THREAD TITLE: BATTLE OF TUKAYYID ~ PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS)

(SECOND THREAD TITLE: BATTLE OF TUKAYYID ~ Inner Quirks verses ClanTech / Clan Qualitative Edge, Which will win the day on TUKAYYID.)


TL,DR - Inner Sphere numeric superiority will still trump Clan qualitative superioirty despite 21APR-changes by PGI to the Matchmaker Mode Mechanism (M4).



A cursory examination of likely faction population sizes for the Battle of TUKAYYID Event appears to indicate that at any one time the Inner Sphere is quite likely to outnumber the Clans by 5 or more (perhaps a GREAT deal more, at least until Inner Sphere gamers get tired of waiting!) 12-man teams waiting in queue.

Whereas the Clans would gain a 72-hour advantage of "INSTA-Drops", Inner Sphere patience may prove to not be enough as it is quite likely some IS gamers will end up going to the Public Queue.

According to what is available from PGI (with a hefty amount of reading between the lines), while the Event will have a SINGLE graphic depicting a 63-sector "World"," in reality it will be run as 7 or more simultaneous "droppable" ..."continents" (for lack of a better term.) Thus multiple drops can and will kick off simultaneously... though given PGI's quite reasonable concern over how Ghost Drops are perceived, I would NOT expect it to be very easy (or even possible) to line up 7 or more Ghost Drops on the 7 or more "continents." After each Factional population has surged to maximum capacity, seemingly interminable delays for IS gamers just might be unavoidable as the Clan vulnerability in aggregate population sizes will be directly contested by the Inner Sphere strength of numeric superiority.



Beyond population size, two other factors will have significant impact on the Event - Ghost Drops and the 21APR Matchmaking Mode Mechanism (choosing between numerically inferior Attackers STILL being able to get "Attack" mode 50% of the time rather than 100% "Hold Territory" Missions.

GHOST DROPS: After reflecting on likely population numbers (IF PGI ALLOWS GHOST DROPS), I would be surprised (and I dearly hope I am surprised!!!) if the Clans manage to gain much (if any) ENDURING traction on TUKAYYID outside of the Clan-Stronghold of the North American Ceasefire Cycle. It is quite likely that whatever gains the Clans MIGHT make during the NA-cycle will be seen to atrophy to nothing by the end of the Oceanic-cycle...


...with the possible exception of CJF, none of the Clans seem to have broken the code sufficiently to have been able to recruit any sizable numbers of Pan-Pacific gamers.


IF PGI DOES NOT PERMIT (OR SEVERELY LIMITS) GHOST DROPS, it is quite likely that while the Inner Sphere MIGHT hold an advantage in "Defenses" this will be VASTLY offset by Clans being "dug in like Alabama tics" and extremely difficult for Inner Sphere "CounterAttacks" to succeed in evicting Clan's from their Sector Hold actions.


MATCHMAKING MODE MECHANISM (M4): A saving grace for the Clans will be M4, but it will be a two-edged sword. While 50% of Clan Teams will be off conquering new sectors, the remaining 50% will LIKELY prove insufficient to the task of "Holding" Clan sector gains... UNLESS PGI also moves to artificially constrain/restrain the Inner Sphere numeric superiority thus negating to a GREAT degree the possibility of Inner Sphere Ghost Drops.





IN SUMMARY: While M4 will aid the Clans' Invasion of TUKAYYID, Inner Sphere numeric superiority (and Ghost Drops during Clan NON-PEAK times) will likely and repeatedly grind down any Clan sector gains.


Actual game play this weekend will prove or disprove or render irrelevant one or more aspects to this predictive analysis. While I HOPE for an evenly matched, down-to-the-wire Event, given current metrics, population sizes and game mechanics UNLESS PGI throws in some as yet UNKNOWN wildcard, our first ever Comunity Warfare Event just might be over before it ever truly gets started.

More to follow as the Event kicks off / concludes.

Edited by Connor Sellock, 25 April 2015 - 02:10 PM.


#2 Soulstrom

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 08:06 AM

I believe that the event will go on till the very last match. Even with the downtime periods for the clans, there are also downtime periods for the IS houses too. It is unlikely that any one house or clan will dominate Tukayyid on their own. It will be a team effort on all sides.

#3 Connor Sellock

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 08:20 AM

View PostSoulstrom, on 21 April 2015 - 08:06 AM, said:

I believe that the event will go on till the very last match. Even with the downtime periods for the clans, there are also downtime periods for the IS houses too. It is unlikely that any one house or clan will dominate Tukayyid on their own. It will be a team effort on all sides.


I have subsequently added a series of Poll questions and would really like your opinions, please review them at you leisure.

#4 operatorZ

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 11:28 AM

View PostConnor Sellock, on 21 April 2015 - 08:02 AM, said:

TL,DR - Inner Sphere numeric superiority will still trump Clan qualitative superioirty despite 21APR-changes by PGI to the Matchmaker Mode Mechanism (M4).



A cursory examination of likely faction population sizes for the Battle of TUKAYYID Event appears to indicate that at any one time the Inner Sphere is quite likely to outnumber the Clans by 5 or more (perhaps a GREAT deal more, at least until Inner Sphere gamers get tired of waiting!) 12-man teams waiting in queue.

Whereas the Clans would gain a 72-hour advantage of "INSTA-Drops", Inner Sphere patience may prove to not be enough as it is quite likely some IS gamers will end up going to the Public Queue.

According to what is available from PGI (with a hefty amount of reading between the lines), while the Event will have a SINGLE graphic depicting a 63-sector "World"," in reality it will be run as 7 or more simultaneous "droppable" ..."continents" (for lack of a better term.) Thus multiple drops can and will kick off simultaneously... though given PGI's quite reasonable concern over how Ghost Drops are perceived, I would NOT expect it to be very easy (or even possible) to line up 7 or more Ghost Drops on the 7 or more "continents." After each Factional population has surged to maximum capacity, seemingly interminable delays for IS gamers just might be unavoidable as the Clan vulnerability in aggregate population sizes will be directly contested by the Inner Sphere strength of numeric superiority.



Beyond population size, two other factors will have significant impact on the Event - Ghost Drops and the 21APR Matchmaking Mode Mechanism (choosing between numerically inferior Attackers STILL being able to get "Attack" mode 50% of the time rather than 100% "Hold Territory" Missions.

GHOST DROPS: After reflecting on likely population numbers (IF PGI ALLOWS GHOST DROPS), I would be surprised (and I dearly hope I am surprised!!!) if the Clans manage to gain much (if any) ENDURING traction on TUKAYYID outside of the Clan-Stronghold of the North American Ceasefire Cycle. It is quite likely that whatever gains the Clans MIGHT make during the NA-cycle will be seen to atrophy to nothing by the end of the Oceanic-cycle...


...with the possible exception of CJF, none of the Clans seem to have broken the code sufficiently to have been able to recruit any sizable numbers of Pan-Pacific gamers.


IF PGI DOES NOT PERMIT (OR SEVERELY LIMITS) GHOST DROPS, it is quite likely that while the Inner Sphere MIGHT hold an advantage in "Defenses" this will be VASTLY offset by Clans being "dug in like Alabama tics" and extremely difficult for Inner Sphere "CounterAttacks" to succeed in evicting Clan's from their Sector Hold actions.


MATCHMAKING MODE MECHANISM (M4): A saving grace for the Clans will be M4, but it will be a two-edged sword. While 50% of Clan Teams will be off conquering new sectors, the remaining 50% will LIKELY prove insufficient to the task of "Holding" Clan sector gains... UNLESS PGI also moves to artificially constrain/restrain the Inner Sphere numeric superiority thus negating to a GREAT degree the possibility of Inner Sphere Ghost Drops.





IN SUMMARY: While M4 will aid the Clans' Invasion of TUKAYYID, Inner Sphere numeric superiority (and Ghost Drops during Clan NON-PEAK times) will likely and repeatedly grind down any Clan sector gains.


Actual game play this weekend will prove or disprove or render irrelevant one or more aspects to this predictive analysis. While I HOPE for an evenly matched, down-to-the-wire Event, given current metrics, population sizes and game mechanics UNLESS PGI throws in some as yet UNKNOWN wildcard, our first ever Comunity Warfare Event just might be over before it ever truly gets started.

More to follow as the Event kicks off / concludes.



Good analysis and love "Alabama Ticks" :lol:

#5 Mar-X-maN

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 11:40 AM

It's gonna suck.

#6 Kassad86

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 11:52 AM

The phone company is going to win

#7 SaltBeef

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 11:53 AM

Clans stomped, IS ERLL spam , better cooling , better weapon quirks, numerical superiority from constant Clan Nerfings.

#8 Tasker

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 02:02 PM



#9 Connor Sellock

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 02:36 PM

By establishing this thread now, it will serve to bring to light "Gamer Expectations Post-Patch" but before the actual Event.

Depending on how the Event kicks off, transpires and concludes, I will add one or more appropriate questions to the Poll.

Furthermore, at Event STARTEX I plan to take snapshots of the poll questions to better gauge how gamer opinion appears to change over the course of the Event and then a second snap shot as the Event concludes.



It is quite possible the comments of viewers will be the most value-added portion of this thread.

At first blush 12 to 1 viewers believe the Inner Sphere will "win" the event ~ if the Clans were to take an early lead, I will be curious if the nature and tone of comments here begin to change,

More to follow...

Edited by Connor Sellock, 21 April 2015 - 02:39 PM.


#10 Telmasa

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 03:38 PM

I said "other" but I could have voted "numeric superiority"...as in numerically higher numbers of superman-quirked mechs zerging around with as many consumables as possible taking every chance to catch the enemy in a spawncamp. With IS being the 'winner', but nobody really winning from the end of it all.

I'm a salty pessimist about CW right now and I'm proud of it.

#11 Triordinant

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 03:45 PM

View PostoperatorZ, on 21 April 2015 - 11:28 AM, said:

Good analysis and love "Alabama Ticks" :lol:




#12 actionking

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 04:01 PM

View PostTelmasa, on 21 April 2015 - 03:38 PM, said:

I said "other" but I could have voted "numeric superiority"...as in numerically higher numbers of superman-quirked mechs zerging around with as many consumables as possible taking every chance to catch the enemy in a spawncamp. With IS being the 'winner', but nobody really winning from the end of it all.

I'm a salty pessimist about CW right now and I'm proud of it.


You have to know you just lost to a 10 man premade on comms. And your team was trying best to spread out....

#13 _Comrade_

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 04:03 PM

whatever side the mercs throw their weight on is going to win which im sure given the meta game is going to be IS. It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the IS will win, the clans are just trying to capture a planet, trying to win Tukayyid sets the standards to high for a low population faction of the clans

#14 Livewyr

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 04:19 PM

I think PGI is going to win... and lose.

Lots of players.
Lots of Gen Rushing.

Firestorm Forums.

#15 Gagis

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 04:20 PM

None of the above.

The FRR will win, and the rest of the Inner Sphere will bow before the Space Vikings.

#16 slide

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 05:58 PM

If I have read the update in the patch notes correctly, I believe the Clans have about as much chance of winning as a snowball has of surviving mid summer in the Saharra.

The Clans will be attacking Tukayyid. According to the patch notes every other game, the Clans will be a defending a counter attack. This immediately means that the Clans have lost half their opportunities to take a sector because even a succesful defense gains them nothing. So even if the Clans win 100% of their matches they only gain 50% of their objectives for every 2 matches played.

According to The last CW events stats, Clans only won 53% of their matches so their win rate is now only approximately 25% of all the matches they play.

To claim Tukayyid the Clans have to win 32 sectors requiring at least 128 drops at their potential 25% win rate. Not an impossible task over 3 days, but when you factor in that the IS will likely be able to ghost any won sectors away at will, unless the Clans can keep a minimum of 7 teams engaged for the whole 3 days or as the OP postulates PGI limit ghost drops, I feel the clans have little chance.

#17 anonymous161

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 06:04 PM

I see no point in participating it's pretty obvious IS will win hands down, due to having a lot more over quirked mechs and their lasers are way better as well so dont see how it will be fun for me to get stomped most of the time. I have't even attempted to join any cw games anymore all I have to do is look at the map and know that it will just be a big waste of time waiting.

Until pgi makes the clan lasers great again I see no point i playing this mode.

#18 Telmasa

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 06:10 PM

View Postactionking, on 21 April 2015 - 04:01 PM, said:


You have to know you just lost to a 10 man premade on comms. And your team was trying best to spread out....


A 10 man premade "on comms"...who literally did nothing but zerg around in superquirk mechs with the aid of consumable spam.

Sorry, cheering each other on while abusing the full-gimmick-meta doesn't equate to actual tactics, teamwork, ability, skill, or anything of the sort.

Anybody - and I mean ANYBODY - can figure out how to take "metamech flavor of the week!", follow one guy around all game, shoot at the stuff he shoots, and laugh about it on a voice chat.

That's not teamwork, that's just like sitting in a bar playing nipple twister on each other.

Edited by Telmasa, 21 April 2015 - 06:11 PM.


#19 Connor Sellock

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 07:52 PM

I understand the angst and frustration with the Light Rush and SpawnCamping, we aren't going to resolve either in this thread.

What I hope to accomplish with my OP and polls here is to establish a body of expectation responses Pre-Event (which we are well on our way to accomplishing! :))

Then as the Event transpires / concludes, add in what appear to be pertinent Poll Questions based on evolving gameplay and any PGI hot-patch/Event Tweaks.

This is BETA, I would HIGHLY encourage PGI to be ADAPTIVE and ANTICIPATORY when it comes to adjusting on the fly with the Event... even to the point of an entire RESET of the Event after a Cycle if the Event appears to be unplayable/all-but-decided.

#20 Toadkillerdog

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Posted 21 April 2015 - 07:58 PM

You need to add another option to your poll for who will win: Chaos. Live or die, it is all a service to Chaos.....





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