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Grab Bags: Odds Check (Event Over, Still Accepting Data!)


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#21 Morggo

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Posted 21 October 2016 - 07:59 AM

View PostBombast, on 21 October 2016 - 07:44 AM, said:



As long as you screenshot them as you go, no. The 'all at once' bit isn't as important as getting enough grab bags logged to have a statistically relevant sample size, and screenshots to verify.


Cool. I plan to try and make a decent run at them each evening. May be a decent sample size :)

#22 MrJeffers

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Posted 21 October 2016 - 07:59 AM

View PostBombast, on 21 October 2016 - 07:28 AM, said:



Posted Image




It seems a bit weird to criticize an idea because it may give an incentive to play heavy... while bragging about how you're going to be playing heavy throughout the entire event. Surely if you are going to be doing it regardless of the rules, most others will as well.

And your own arguments could easily be turned around.

'I do doubt what you stated is going to be the case. Sure, there will be an over abundance of assault mechs, but it won't be that rampant. Mostly they will be players who had been playing a disproportionate amount of Kodiaks/Assaults from the beginning.'

To clarify, I'm not saying my idea is objectively better then what we got - It was just something I thought of as I was reading the rules of the current event. I'm just finding most of the 'opposition' to it in this thread bizarre, from you complaining about how it will make other players play exactly like you do like it's a bad thing, to the insinuation that voicing a negative opinion is somehow an objectively bad thing and everyone should just shut up and deal without whatever comes.

Just weird all around.

Anyway... just one person so far willing to check the odds with me. Can't say I'm surprised. And everyone here is willing to agree to, it's a brutal event, whether you think it should be changed or not.

Also, another clarification, as I'm aware it wasn't 100% clear in the original post - My primary objection to the 15 match method isn't the 15 matches itself and the time involved, but that it gives people a good excuse to play badly.


Having the event reward a number of bags per match equal to your match score divided by 80 is just a bad idea because it would greatly change who played, what they played, and how many matches they played in.That type of scoring *would* drive nearly everyone to be playing their highest damage per match mechs. That would have the side effects of both increasing the wait time for matches, AND reduce the number of matches each person plays. News Flash - these events are designed to bring up player numbers and have people playing in more matches.

As it's designed now that its what it does; many people will play to get all 15, some won't, but still more than if people could knock out all 15 bags in 5-7 matches. Now If you can get an 80 point match in a light you get just as many bags as the person in the Kodiak getting 400 match score games. And likely getting them faster because the light queue allowing you to get more matches per hour.

#23 Bombast

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Posted 21 October 2016 - 03:43 PM

Well, got some spreadsheets set up for tracking. Set it up so we can do it day by day if people prefer.

Anyone else want to contribute? Don't need to get all of them, of course, but if you'd like to help out, just screenshot whatever ones you open and give'em up. I'd appreciate it forever.

I have, right now...

Bombast
Morggo
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N0ni
Nadilly

Edited by Bombast, 21 October 2016 - 03:47 PM.


#24 El Bandito

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Posted 21 October 2016 - 04:23 PM

View PostBombast, on 21 October 2016 - 07:28 AM, said:

It seems a bit weird to criticize an idea because it may give an incentive to play heavy... while bragging about how you're going to be playing heavy throughout the entire event. Surely if you are going to be doing it regardless of the rules, most others will as well.



And your own arguments could easily be turned around.

'I do doubt what you stated is going to be the case. Sure, there will be an over abundance of assault mechs, but it won't be that rampant. Mostly they will be players who had been playing a disproportionate amount of Kodiaks/Assaults from the beginning.'


I am not playing the KDK-3 because of the event. I can play an Adder and get 80 match score every single time. The event requirement is a joke.
I am playing the KDK-3, which I bought recently, to have enough games in order to show people just how OP of a mech it is, thus requires a nerf. Right now, I have only 36 games with it and I need to make it to 75 or so just so my argument on KDK-3 nerf holds more water. Gonna write a thread about it once I have enough games with it.

Edited by El Bandito, 21 October 2016 - 06:08 PM.


#25 JC Daxion

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Posted 21 October 2016 - 05:00 PM

View PostBombast, on 21 October 2016 - 07:44 AM, said:


As long as you screenshot them as you go, no. The 'all at once' bit isn't as important as getting enough grab bags logged to have a statistically relevant sample size, and screenshots to verify.



Why does it mater when you take the screenshot? have you not done this before? it has an event page, and gives a list,.. then you click the box, and it shows you the reward.. Typically you get some MC, and c-bills, and GXP.. a decent amount if you get your whole amount,, some get lucky and get the grand prize after just a few.

#26 Bombast

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Posted 21 October 2016 - 05:06 PM

View PostJC Daxion, on 21 October 2016 - 05:00 PM, said:



Why does it mater when you take the screenshot? have you not done this before? it has an event page, and gives a list,.. then you click the box, and it shows you the reward.. Typically you get some MC, and c-bills, and GXP.. a decent amount if you get your whole amount,, some get lucky and get the grand prize after just a few.


...Didn't I just say it wasn't really important when the screenshot was taken? Or are you asking why I'm asking for proof?

Edited by Bombast, 21 October 2016 - 05:06 PM.


#27 Angel of Annihilation

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Posted 21 October 2016 - 09:13 PM

View PostEl Bandito, on 21 October 2016 - 05:56 AM, said:

News flash: You don't have to do all 15 of them. Play at your own pace. The 15 match limit is designed to reward players who are willing to grind it out by putting some extra time for it. Don't complain about it if you are not willing to spend time for it. Just get the rewards that are appropriate to the time you have spent on the event, and be happy. They are free. I would probably do 4-5 matches per day at most, even if I have the entire day for free. I am not suffering from some kind of OCD.


I was going to say that. The 15 bag limit is so that some enterprising young player doesn't team up with a few buddies and play 24/7 thoughout the even and managed to snag 50-100 bags a day or some crazy amount like that. What it isn't is a goal that you should be aiming for, rather it is just there as a reward for playing normally. Honestly this is one of the best and most fun events PGI runs and I am looking forward to it with zero complains running around in my head.

#28 Jingseng

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Posted 22 October 2016 - 05:59 AM

Are there no historical data on grab bag odds?

#29 TLBFestus

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Posted 22 October 2016 - 08:09 AM

I would help, might even try, but doing so would violate the charter of my club, The Lazy B@stards.

#30 JC Daxion

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Posted 22 October 2016 - 02:33 PM

View PostBombast, on 21 October 2016 - 05:06 PM, said:


...Didn't I just say it wasn't really important when the screenshot was taken? Or are you asking why I'm asking for proof?



No you just said take screenshots as you go.. and i was wondering why you had to do that, the page is just a list.. so you could do them all at once at the end. So what is the point again? maybe i am just confused lol

#31 Bombast

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Posted 22 October 2016 - 03:27 PM

View PostJC Daxion, on 22 October 2016 - 02:33 PM, said:



No you just said take screenshots as you go.. and i was wondering why you had to do that, the page is just a list.. so you could do them all at once at the end. So what is the point again? maybe i am just confused lol


Logging the results to check odds.

#32 ME-tan

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 05:05 PM

So, uh, this just happened.

Posted Image

#33 Bandilly

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 05:06 PM

First 50 Open:

1. Lava Lamp
2. 112,500 CBills
3. 112,500 Cbills
4. Halloween Pumpkin
5. 112,500 CBills
6. 87,500 Cbills
7. Flamer
8. 400 GXP
9. 5 MC
10. Machine Gun
11. Improved Coolant Pod
12. 100,000 CBills
13. 100,000 CBills
14. 300 GXP
15. 300 GXP
16. 30 MC
17. 87,500 CBills
18. 100,000 CBills
19. 50,000 CBills
20. 112,500 CBills
21. 200 GXP
22. Improved Coolant Pod
23. 25 MC
24. 200 GXP
25. 400 GXP
26. 200 GXP
27. Mech Bay
28. Stitched Pummpkin
29. 62,500 CBills
30. Priority Air Strike
31. Improved Coolant Pod
32. 112,500 CBills
33. 50,000 CBills
34. 50 MC
35. Mech Bay
36. 10 MC
37. Nuke Pumpkin
38. 112,500 CBills
39. Small Laser
40. 15 MC
41. Priority Artillery Strike
42. Flamer
43. Priority Air Strike
44. 100,000 CBills
45. 400 GXP
46. Improved Coolant Pod
47. 10 MC
48. Advanced UAV
49. 300 GXP
50. Priority Artillery Strike.



Overall the rewards are pretty nice, to sum up some of the important items out of the 50:
1.4125 Million CBills
145 MC
2 Mech Bays
4 Cockpit Items


Now we get up to 120 more bags from matches, which means the bag rewards are likely to overshadow the rest of the event rewards put together (or already have, I mean 2 mech bays!).

View Postmetan, on 24 October 2016 - 05:05 PM, said:

So, uh, this just happened.

Posted Image


How did you get only one bonus bag? Or are you just showing one and got the big prize on your first go? Either way, nice.

#34 ME-tan

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 05:11 PM

View PostBandilly, on 24 October 2016 - 05:06 PM, said:

How did you get only one bonus bag? Or are you just showing one and got the big prize on your first go? Either way, nice.


Just showing that I got it on the first bag. Though with the way my luck works, that ate up all of it and I won't get a single mech bay during the whole event.

#35 Fiona Marshe

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Posted 25 October 2016 - 12:49 AM

I got the gand prize on #7 (no mechbays yet)

#36 N0ni

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Posted 25 October 2016 - 01:26 AM

Day 1:

Posted Image

Opened in a random order, got the grand prize first try.

#37 Jingseng

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Posted 25 October 2016 - 01:43 AM

1 MC: 25 MC
2 GXP: 200 GXP
3 GXP: 100 GXP
4 Trick: 1 Small Laser
5 Premium Time: 1 Day Active Premium Time
6 Consumables: Improved Coolant Pod
7 MC: 5 MC
8 MC: 5 MC
9 Mech' Bay: 1 Mech' Bay
10 Cockpit Items: Halloween Skull Face
11 GXP: 300 GXP
12 Consumables: Advanced UAV
13 C-Bills: 50,000 C-Bills
14 Consumables: Advanced UAV
15 MC: 40 MC
16 GXP: 200 GXP
17 GXP: 200 GXP
18 Consumables: Priority Artillery Strike
19 MC: 50 MC
20 GXP: 100 GXP

Edited by Jingseng, 25 October 2016 - 01:44 AM.


#38 Ced Riggs

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Posted 25 October 2016 - 02:17 AM

Here's 100 bags. http://pastebin.com/2vDYq11W

#39 Kmieciu

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Posted 25 October 2016 - 02:17 AM

View PostEl Bandito, on 21 October 2016 - 06:44 AM, said:

Either way, my KDK-3 is gonna have fun blowing up everyone. Even if I play only 4-5 matches per day.

Even during an absolutely worst 12:0 stomp in group queue I was able to deal 470 damage in KDK-3.
I fired for about 20 seconds before they focused me down :-)

#40 Trollfeed

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Posted 25 October 2016 - 02:22 AM

Damn you guys are lucky with dem mechbays.





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