71 replies to this topic

[cazidin]

Greetings MechWarriors. Today I have a simple question. Is MechWarrior Online actually losing players and if so, at what rate? Many anti-PGI ForumWarriors would loudly claim that we're hemorrhaging players but what system can we use to objectively calculate how many active accounts we've had in the game's history up to now?

Edited by draiocht, 21 February 2017 - 02:06 PM.
edited title to reflect question

[CK16]

I don't feel it or see it. It's more as you said a select few who try to go all end of days on us.

Game is ok, population is in ok shape, people come and go all the time. It is nothing new to this game or any other game. People say the same for WoW, WoT, ect ect.

[WolvesX]

I guess we will never know, because PGI removed the player counter at the end of the BETA sadly.

[Dandred]

Well I feel something is going on in QP. The overall quality of teams seems to be diminishing.

Now does that mean good players are leaving, or is there a huge influx of new players?

[MeiSooHaityu]

People have been concerned about a declining player base since Beta, and that was years ago (about 4+ now?). IMO, the player base always seems to be in decent shape. I'm sure it has been much higher at times, but it has always been enough for convenient matches (in solo queue anyway).

Eventually all things come to an end of course, but the player base seems fairly healthy at the moment. Matches (solo queue) don't take long to find (even at different times of the day) and although I see reoccurring faces, it is normally when I directly bounce back into a match right away. If I wait a small bit and try and launch, it seems like all new faces.

Overall I wouldn't worry about it.

[Bud Crue]

I used to care enough about the game and objectivity to argue about this. When someone would say: "look! Steam numbers! BAD!!!" I would point out the leaderboard numbers and its gentle up and down flow over the last year and note that it appears pretty stable with a long term very slow declining trend. Then when others would take a snap shot of a particularly bad month or months I would heatedly argue about their understanding of statatistics, the nature of analysis or the inherent difficulty of trying to determine trends without full data, etc.

Now I don't. PGI doesn't share data but asserts the use of data when it suits them and always, always, always whenever they take away functionality that is utterly contrary to the observed reality of the game (Shadow Hawk 3M is OP and needed a nerf because data...really?). Thus, even if PGI shared population data with us, I wouldn't trust it AT ALL.

So to answer the OP: there is no source of reliable data, and since all we can do is guess, its pointless to worry about.

[Pariah Devalis]

Tarogato posted some numbers the other day. The long and short of it is, "No." The game is NOT dying.

Neither is it growing. We are essentially losing players at a rate similar to what we gain. It is an unsustainable state, as eventually, unless something big shakes things up, those who play regularly will continue to play less and less. However, at this very moment, and since the expected sharp spike and rapid decline after a Steam release, the community's overall numbers have stayed fairly stable.

[meteorol]

Steam numbers have been constant for like 6 months.

[Nameless King]

Some players leave to play new games and new players come in.

[Deathlike]

I've seen a greater decline in play, than it is players...

In other words, retention is closer to a sieve. If someone decides to stay, it's not necessarily because they like the grind.

[Weeny Machine]

CK16, on 20 February 2017 - 07:45 AM, said:

I don't feel it or see it. It's more as you said a select few who try to go all end of days on us.

Game is ok, population is in ok shape, people come and go all the time. It is nothing new to this game or any other game. People say the same for WoW, WoT, ect ect.

I'd agree. However, that you suddenly have to fight with/against T4 peeps as a T1 doesn't bode well. I can't remember having that before

[C E Dwyer]

Well on Tuesday there were slightly more than 28,000 players that had 10 games or more on the leader board by the weekend it was 30,128 and when I checked for a third time two hours later it was 30,186

Total numbers of players doesn't really matter it's the number that buy mech packs, mech bays, camo dekkels and other premium things that matter.

This I'm guessing for now remains at a reasonable rate, some whales that might have stopped paying are probably all ga ga for MW5 which has probably helped sales.

I think the next thing that probably is going to hit sales, though by how much is the full release of BattleTech, while it's turn based I think it will have a minor effect on numbers, it's how many people that have kept this game going despite their intense dislike of where P.G.I are taking it, that no longer feel M.W.O is worth another one hundred, two hundred or so dollars a year and probably more, now there is a kind of alternative to this, that will be the real issue.

I do think with it's release you'll see far more people spend far less here or give up completely.

I've stated many many times in threads like this that P.G.I will start closing down Oceanic and or European servers in 2018 probably the second half. the game might struggle on until 2019.

The skill tree and the removal of the rule of three, if it comes off, will by their own hand reduce the amount of income that this game generates, as people that used to buy a complete set or a standard pack will now only buy the mech they think is best.

But what about Mech Warrior 5 Mercenary they wouldn't string us along with a pack of lies like the four pillars and the FW game they screen at the live release event surely ?

kind of nope

I think the plan is to struggle along until it's built and at some point afterwards reduce the size of their dev team, stop development of MWO and just add mech until it starts losing money and then close completely, using the skellington team to produce DLC for MW5M.

Whether MW5M is any good is another matter, I'd think it will be so so, and I think it will launch with roughly 35% of the features claimed to being made, which will then be told were not going to be prat of it three years into its launch.

This is my prediction give or take 3 months I think i'm pretty spot on

Edited by Cathy, 20 February 2017 - 08:24 AM.

[Siegegun]

This has been said over and over since open beta. Nothing to see here move along...

[Mechteric]

If only stupid threads like these would go in decline

Edited by CapperDeluxe, 20 February 2017 - 08:30 AM.

[Alistair Winter]

It's clear that we're not losing any significant amount of players. I don't know if Tarogato's stats revealed how many matches are actually being played, because it's possible that we have the same number of players, but people are playing less than before.

We don't know how much money those players are spending, obviously. That's kind of important.

Regardless, I feel pretty confident that MWO will stay alive and well through the release of MW5, and then PGI is free to work on MWO2. This game is almost 5 years old. If PGI was able to keep it alive until they could make a succesful sequel (i.e. one that doesn't die immediately), then colour me impressed.

cazidin, on 20 February 2017 - 07:42 AM, said:

but what system can we use to objectively calculate how many active accounts we've had in the game's history up to now?

The systems mentioned in all the previous threads on this topic.

[cazidin]

Bud Crue, on 20 February 2017 - 07:54 AM, said:

I used to care enough about the game and objectivity to argue about this. When someone would say: "look! Steam numbers! BAD!!!" I would point out the leaderboard numbers and its gentle up and down flow over the last year and note that it appears pretty stable with a long term very slow declining trend. Then when others would take a snap shot of a particularly bad month or months I would heatedly argue about their understanding of statatistics, the nature of analysis or the inherent difficulty of trying to determine trends without full data, etc.

Now I don't. PGI doesn't share data but asserts the use of data when it suits them and always, always, always whenever they take away functionality that is utterly contrary to the observed reality of the game (Shadow Hawk 3M is OP and needed a nerf because data...really?). Thus, even if PGI shared population data with us, I wouldn't trust it AT ALL.

So to answer the OP: there is no source of reliable data, and since all we can do is guess, its pointless to worry about.

More of a genuine curiosity than worry, tbh.

Pariah Devalis, on 20 February 2017 - 07:55 AM, said:

Tarogato posted some numbers the other day. The long and short of it is, "No." The game is NOT dying.

Neither is it growing. We are essentially losing players at a rate similar to what we gain. It is an unsustainable state, as eventually, unless something big shakes things up, those who play regularly will continue to play less and less. However, at this very moment, and since the expected sharp spike and rapid decline after a Steam release, the community's overall numbers have stayed fairly stable.

May I ask where he posted numbers at? Stagnation is bad for almost any game.

[Pariah Devalis]

cazidin, on 20 February 2017 - 08:39 AM, said:

More of a genuine curiosity than worry, tbh.



May I ask where he posted numbers at? Stagnation is bad for almost any game.

https://www.reddit.c...player_numbers/

[cazidin]

Pariah Devalis, on 20 February 2017 - 08:44 AM, said:

https://www.reddit.c...player_numbers/

Thank you!

[El Bandito]

Seems stable around 30K. Steam only.

https://steamdb.info.../342200/graphs/

Edited by El Bandito, 20 February 2017 - 09:13 AM.

[Coolant]

not possible to know unless you work at PGI and have access to the numbers. Saying all your friends no longer play or your unit is disappearing is not proof that the community is in decline.