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Incorrect Elo Calculation W/screenshot Proof

ELO bad math unreliable scoring system

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#1 INVlCTUS

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Posted 04 May 2019 - 12:43 PM

---RESOLVED (w/help from justcallme A S H and Dionnsai)---


(so a friend asked me to ask you about this thing that happen to them....not me)

Solaris 7 Division X match ending around YY:XZ on 05/0X/19

I beat a top five player in Solaris 7 Div X.
Going into the match I had 18XX ELO (I was in XXth place)
They had 19XX ELO (in Xth place)
They had more than a 50 point ELO lead on me.
Between us we had more than 100 matches in the division

After winning it indicated the match to be worth +19 ELO (in the top left summary panel)
Upon match exit I click the Division tab (since it does the math and gives you your new ELO number before the scoreboards quarter hour updates)

It showed my estimated new score as 18XX+1...a +1???
Beating someone 50+ ELO higher than you and all you get is a +1
I mean beating a flat 1500 ELO was still worth +4 ELO to me.

I figured it must be something with the Division tab so I waited for the official scoreboard update.


After the scoreboard update:
Thier 19XX ELO fell to 18XX (-19).
My ELO improved by 1???
What happen?



There are two concerns here.
1st is my comparitively minor loss of the additional +18 ELO in a tight top 10 for division.
2nd and more importantly: we have a system that is not keeping 100% accurate scores.
If i noticied it because of a very specific scenario how many scores are being incorrectly calculated that no one notices?
How can you legitimately compete within a system that has a scoring mechanism that cannot reliably keep track of match win/loss calculations?
Particularly when there are money / prize matches at cons and eSport events.

I sent a ticket to support but recieved no reply beyond the automated "send us logs"
Included in the email:
Attached are two screenshots.
- MWO 05.0X.2019-22.18.35 - immediately after match showing my ELO at 18XX and thier ELO at 19XX
- MWO 05.0X.2019-22.23.20 - about three minutes later when a scoreboard update shows my new ELO at 18XX+1 (and showing thier ELO took the -19 hit)

Edited by Propaine, 04 May 2019 - 08:45 PM.


#2 justcallme A S H

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Posted 04 May 2019 - 03:46 PM

The +19 ELO is for ALL your wins in the past 15mins or the highest ELO gain in that 15mins.

Not the win you just had. If that makes sense.

At least that's what I find anyway. It doesn't give you a real time result after a match. Someone who checks more often may understand it a bit better but I have never really cared, just play, get rewards that's it.

The ELO gain/loss depends on the Delta between the two as well, which is unknown (unpublished) calculation I believe.

Edited by justcallme A S H, 04 May 2019 - 03:47 PM.


#3 Dionnsai

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Posted 04 May 2019 - 04:05 PM

ELO only updates once every 15 minutes, if you track it, you'll see that there are no errors.

The only exception to this is, if you play someone who is so far below you that you receive 0 elo for winning, then it will show the results of the previous match in which there was elo change.

#4 justcallme A S H

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Posted 04 May 2019 - 04:55 PM

The thing to tracking it means only playing once every 15-20mins too (just in case that was unclear) :)

Otherwise you sow the numbers.

#5 INVlCTUS

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Posted 04 May 2019 - 08:15 PM

justcallme A S H said:

The +19 ELO is for ALL your wins in the past 15mins or the highest ELO gain in that 15mins.

In the 15 minutes between updates I won two matches: a +6 and this +19.
My expectation would be my ELO would increase by +25 in that division upon next update.
This did not happen.
Instead my ELO was increased by 1


This scenario sums up my experience regarding the three locations you can find your ELO
Starting ELO = 1000

08:05
Leaderboard shows your ELO: 1000
Summary panel at top left shows ELO Change: 0
Division tab shows ELO:1000

enter match > win = +5 ELO

Leaderboard shows your ELO: 1000
Summary panel at top left shows ELO Change: +5
Division tab shows ELO:1005


08:09
Leaderboard shows your ELO: 1000
Summary panel at top left shows ELO Change: +5
Division tab shows ELO:1005

enter match > win = +9 ELO

Leaderboard shows your ELO: 1000
Summary panel at top left shows ELO Change: +9 (note that it does NOT show +14 ELO)
Division tab shows ELO:1014


08:15
Leaderboard updates your ELO: 1014
Summary panel at top left shows ELO change: +9
Division tab shows ELO:1014

enter match > win = +6 ELO

Leaderboard shows your ELO: 1014
Summary panel at top left shows ELO Change: +6
Division tab shows ELO:1020

I am aware of the scoring update timing etc...

Edited by Propaine, 04 May 2019 - 08:21 PM.


#6 INVlCTUS

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Posted 04 May 2019 - 08:19 PM

Dionnsai said:

ELO only updates once every 15 minutes, if you track it, you'll see that there are no errors.
The only exception to this is, if you play someone who is so far below you that you receive 0 elo for winning, then it will show the results of the previous match in which there was elo change.

I mention my awareness of the 15 minute scoreboard updates in OP but explained my understanding a bit further above.
The error definitely occurred.
I have several screenshots of match prior to this one, this match and post match
(while you twitch i just take pre & post screenshots).

I was unaware of the exception, good info! thank you!

#7 INVlCTUS

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Posted 04 May 2019 - 08:42 PM

Bottom line:
I rotate among divisions so rarely take two in the same division within a single 15 minute update window.
Beating someone 50+ ELO higher than you should produce a gain of more than +1


I am not the sharpest tool in the shed.

As I am replying to both of you in support of my fearmongering OP your earlier points start to poke holes in the seal of confidence which is keeping my absolute certainty afloat.
Trying to patch the holes before I sink I checked all the screenshots again...and found a leak in my assertion.

I just noted that there is indeed a loss busting holes the hull of my entire OP.
I won 1 and lost 1...I guess the loss was for a -18 since the +19 only garnered a +1 after update


Thank you both for helping me understand / identify the piece I was missing.

Edited by Propaine, 04 May 2019 - 08:43 PM.


#8 justcallme A S H

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Posted 05 May 2019 - 03:46 AM

Yeah if you lose a match, or even simply PLAY a match...

The leaderboard +/- will be thrown off no matter which way it goes.

It would be ideal if it updated instantly, alas that isn't the case here.

#9 Dionnsai

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Posted 05 May 2019 - 07:19 AM

All this said, they could fix some of this by having a clientside stack of uncounted wins/losses and a timer showing when they will be added to the leaderboard totals?

Also the 0 score match not showing up as been an annoyance for awhile.

#10 Soedrin

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Posted 05 May 2019 - 11:57 AM

View PostDionnsai, on 05 May 2019 - 07:19 AM, said:

All this said, they could fix some of this by having a clientside stack of uncounted wins/losses and a timer showing when they will be added to the leaderboard totals?

Also the 0 score match not showing up as been an annoyance for awhile.


As soon as anything is levied against client-side processing of any nature you will have 12,218 basement dwelling packet sniffers hunting for the crack in the pipeline to hack their way up the leaderboards.

#11 Dionnsai

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Posted 06 May 2019 - 12:17 PM

That's blatantly silly, the client should just show a representation of elo +/- since last update, it would be dumb as ballz to have the client actually handle anything...





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