Prototelis, on 06 January 2020 - 01:22 AM, said:
No.
There are two teams, it takes both teams to nascar, one team always wins. Nascar works 100% of the time.
Okay. Let's try an analogy.
Pat Kell makes Rocket Boots and he hopes those will allow people to fly. However he's not going to use them himself because he doesn't want to die. So he goes to his buddy Prototelis who he knows is a man of the world and knows many people.
Pat Kell says: "Prototelis, please take my patented Pat Kell Rocket Boots, PKRBs for short, and get people to test them. Just be sure test them one case at a time and then come tell me how often they work right to let people safely fly."
So Prototelis takes the PKRBs, which comes in cases of 24, and goes out to recruit people to use them.
In the first test he gives 24 people PKRBs, shows them how they work and then takes them to the top of the Empire State Building. All 24 use the PKRBs and jump off.
12 of them fall, screaming the whole way, to a messy death below. 12 of them soar off into the sky like Iron Man.
Huh.
So Prototelis goes out and gets 24 more people, takes them up and repeats the process. Again, 12 of them blaze off into the clouds and 12 of them flail, their PKRBs failing to function correctly, before adding their gore and viscera to the pile from the last test.
This repeats again and again and again. Every time, 12 people have their PKRBs work wonderfully and fly them around like super heroes and 12 of them have their boots fail to work and they fall, to their splatty fate.
Having thus completed his test and recorded the results of hundreds of cases of 24 boots, Prototelis returns to Pat Kell and says:
"The Rocket Boots worked 100% of the time!"
Pat Kell says: "That's awesome! I would go try them at the Empire State Building but it seems there was some accident and there's hundreds of dead bodies all around it, so I'll go fly off the Chrysler Building!"
Now. What are the odds that when Pat Kell jumps off the Chrysler Building that his boots will send him flying skyward and what's the odds that he'll fall to his death, confused and cursing Prototelis the whole way down?
To measure the efficacy of something, be that Pat Kells patented Rocket Boots or the use of Nascar as a strategy in MWO you must account for everyone in the test who is using them. If half use Nascar in a MWO match or PKRBs to fly off the Empire State Building and succeed and half lose the match or fall to their deaths than only half of the people in the sample group were successful.
Edited by MischiefSC, 07 January 2020 - 09:16 PM.