82 replies to this topic

[Alistair Winter]

It's been a long time since I've seen any interesting statistic threads in the General Forum. You newbies may not remember this, but back in 2013 and early 2014, there were a lot of threads with interesting statistics, as people were trying to analyze and fix the game. But that's another story.

I figure that the world championship MWO e-sport (shhhh) tournament may be an interesting vantage point from which to analyze MWO. What mechs are most popular, what builds are most popular, what strategies are most popular, how long matches last, how common stomps are, etc.

It should get even more interesting in the second round of qualifying matches, when most of the just-for-fun teams have been eliminated, and we get a better look at the competitive players as a group. But I have taken a look at the first round of qualifying matches and, just to get the ball rolling, I started looking at the number of cash-only mechs. In other words, in an 8v8 tournament where most people are trying to meta as hard as possible, how many people are using cash-only mechs that cannot be purchased with C-bills?

C-bill mechs vs cash-only mechs.

Spoiler

Disclaimer:
Those of you who pay any attention to my posts (seems like a waste of time, but your call) will know that I'll usually say that MWO is no longer a P2W game, but it could arguably have been called that when the Clans were released and held behind a pay-wall while being frighteningly powerful. So this is not a part of some massive "MWO is P2W" bittervet campaign, quite the opposite.

A few caveats:

• The choice of mechs and builds will depend on game mode and map. So one match on one map with one particular game mode may not be very illuminating.
  
• I am not differentiating between MC-only mechs and mechs that are currently behind an early access pay-wall. Obviously, I am looking at cash-only mechs for the sake of the P2W question, and some people feel that early access isn't P2W, while others argue that early access mechs tend to be more powerful and then get nerfed after they're out for c-bills.
  
• There are currently no cash-only medium mechs, which potentially has a big effect. Especially because the latest medium mech release in the game, the Hunchback IIC, is fairly popular, but now out for C-bills.

A few interesting results:

• Of 17 matches, the team with a higher number of cash-only mechs won 5 times. The team with a higher number of c-bill mechs won 5 times. And in 7 matches, both teams had an equal number of cash-only mechs.
  
• In total, 63% of the mechs in the qualifying rounds were C-bill mechs. 37% were cash-only mechs
  
• If you disregard the medium mech category, as there are no cash-only medium mechs, then 49% of the mechs in the qualifying rounds were C-bill mechs. 51% were cash-only mechs.
  
• I didn't collect actual numbers on this, but it seems like the Jenner IIC and Cheetah are the most popular light mechs (duh) and the light mech class is the one with least variation.
  
• Medium class is probably the class with most variation. You see anything from Stormcrows to Enforcers, Griffins, Hunchback IICs, even a couple of Trebuchets.
  
• Heavy class seems to be mostly Timberwolves, Whammies and Black Knights.
  
• 61 of 68 assault mechs were Kodiaks. But please tell me more about how useless and fragile it is.
  
• One team won their match with a SDR-5K (Krivvan), which may be evidence that the MG is in fact OP and should be nerfed. Also, jump jets.

TL;DR:

• A lot of cash-only mechs in this tournament
  
• Hard to say if this will be a pattern later in the tournament, on other maps, with other game modes and fewer casual player teams.
  
• Kodiak is useless, PGI plz fix

Edited by Alistair Winter, 06 June 2016 - 03:40 AM.

[LordNothing]

id argue that there is enough free mc floating around where anyone could score a free hero deck without paying one red cent, provided you put fourth sufficient effort. i call this a pay or grind type scenario. you could in theory milk mc indefinitely through unit play, but that would take forever. the easy way would be to sweep each skill tree in series which also takes forever.

this means that those perma-paywalled mechs arent quite so, you just have to grind like a madman to get some of them.

Edited by LordNothing, 06 June 2016 - 12:34 AM.

[Hit the Deck]

I don't really understand the numbers (maybe because I have no knowledge about the current tourney and its rules), for example, 2 KDK-3 make for 6 C-Bill Mechs. Could you elaborate?

[Tarogato]

LordNothing, on 05 June 2016 - 11:49 PM, said:

id argue that there is enough free mc floating around where anyone could score a free hero deck without paying one red cent, provided you put fourth sufficient effort. i call this a pay 2 grind type scenario. you could in theory milk mc indefinitely through unit play, but that would take forever. the easy way would be to sweep each skill tree in series which also takes forever.

this means that those perma-paywalled mechs arent quite so, you just have to grind like a madman to get some of them.

As a free-to-play player, I can confirm that ... there is in fact no where near enough free MC floating around. You have three things to spend your MC on - mechbays, cosmetics, and hero mechs. I spend the minimum possible on cosmetics, try to maximise my mechbays as much as possible (about 80 owned and filled so far), and I don't have enough MC left over to buy hero mechs. I only own two, they were purchased at 50% off, and due to balance changes they are completely and utterly worthless right now, so it was basically wasted MC.

[Anunknownlurker]

@Hit the Deck - The Kodiak is, currently, only available for real life money. Eventually it will be available for C-bills and would have to be discounted from this analysis of "cash only" mechs, however, with the tournament you can use any available mech without paying for them; i.e. they are all treated as C-bill mechs.

Overall the Kodiak isn't that great, Spirit Bear has MASC and pretty much plays like a fast, soft, Atlas, the other variants are decent apart from one; KDK-3 which is clearly rather too good as you show in your figures above.

Regarding the rest of the mechs in the tournament; Oxide and Black Widow (both "cash only" mechs) have for some time been the IS "go to" variants and are particularly well suited to the game play in the tournament as it is at the moment.

To OP - some interesting, although not surprising, metrics there. Thanks for this, it would be interesting to see if this situation changes in any way as the competition progresses.

[STEF_]

Maximaze uber cash grab with the KDK.

Minimaze mwo "uber skill" organization with underbelow noob management.

gg pgi hide behind your silent fortress.

o/

[Hit the Deck]

Hit the Deck, on 05 June 2016 - 11:49 PM, said:

I don't really understand the numbers (maybe because I have no knowledge about the current tourney and its rules), for example, 2 KDK-3 make for 6 C-Bill Mechs. Could you elaborate?

Is it 8 vs 8? So, for my example above, 8-2 = 6 C-Bills Mechs.

[Deathlike]

Eventually the Kodiaks will be made available for C-bills... however many are going to max out on the Kodiak-3 at times.

There are still lots of viable Assaults, but for the purposes of an 8v8 Tourney, the sheer mobility for a push cannot go unnoticed.

The thing about the Oxides in this instance is that people are trying to make the match more accessible to their grounded mechs, but the Jenner-IIC isn't really that far behind in usage just simply for their JJ availability.

[Alistair Winter]

Hit the Deck, on 05 June 2016 - 11:49 PM, said:

I don't really understand the numbers (maybe because I have no knowledge about the current tourney and its rules), for example, 2 KDK-3 make for 6 C-Bill Mechs. Could you elaborate?

Yeah, I guess it would have been less confusing to count the number of cash-only mechs instead of the number of C-bills. but you're right. If one team has 8 mechs and only 2 of them are cash-only (e.g. 2 KDK-3) then they have 6 C-bill mechs.

[Darth Hotz]

Good job on getting numbers!

I am looking foreward to read from Bishop and Gyrok why these fact do not count and a Wubshee or an MX90 are the dominate assaults that would slaughter the KDK 3 all the time.

Their creativity in neglecting facts does not stop to impress me.

[Hit the Deck]

Darth Hotz, on 06 June 2016 - 12:18 AM, said:

Good job on getting numbers!

I am looking foreward to read from Bishop and Gyrok why these fact do not count and a Wubshee or an MX90 are the dominate assaults that would slaughter the KDK 3 all the time.

Their creativity in neglecting facts does not stop to impress me.

This thread will turn into Kodiak thread in 3... 2... 1...

[Alistair Winter]

Deathlike, on 06 June 2016 - 12:14 AM, said:

Eventually the Kodiaks will be made available for C-bills... however many are going to max out on the Kodiak-3 at times.
There are still lots of viable Assaults, but for the purposes of an 8v8 Tourney, the sheer mobility for a push cannot go unnoticed.
The thing about the Oxides in this instance is that people are trying to make the match more accessible to their grounded mechs, but the Jenner-IIC isn't really that far behind in usage just simply for their JJ availability.

Yeah, I think that as you go through the timeline of MWO history, there will be periods where the best mechs are cash only and the best mechs are out for C-bills. There's no consistent pattern of the best mechs always being one or the other. However, I would argue that there's a consistent pattern that it's always both. When the best heavy mechs are out for c-bills, the best light mechs might be cash only. When the best light mechs are available for c-bills, the best assault mechs might be cash only. I haven't really looked at it. I just thought it'd be interesting to take a snap shot of MWO as it is right now.

[Anunknownlurker]

There are a couple of things to note, which have been raised before on similar "pay wall" threads (I know this isn't really one of them!):

• There are plenty of cash only mechs which are pretty terrible - St Ives Blues is possilby the worst
  
• There have been plenty of "cash only (until they are released for C-bills) mechs" which have been pretty bad or simply average - Rifleman, Archer, most Clan mechs?
  
• There are only a couple of "cash only" mechs which are clearly tier 1 and better than their C-bill variants

I think the problem with the tournament is that the KDK-3 is, so clearly, best in class that it narrows down the "sensible" choice for a competitive team in the current game format. For me, this isn't so much a cash vs C-bills argument as a "lack of variety creating uninteresting game play" argument. Oh, they have 2 BW, 2 KDK-3, 2 splat Jenners (Clan or IS) + various mediums, how interesting....

[LordNothing]

Tarogato, on 06 June 2016 - 12:03 AM, said:

As a free-to-play player, I can confirm that ... there is in fact no where near enough free MC floating around. You have three things to spend your MC on - mechbays, cosmetics, and hero mechs. I spend the minimum possible on cosmetics, try to maximise my mechbays as much as possible (about 80 owned and filled so far), and I don't have enough MC left over to buy hero mechs. I only own two, they were purchased at 50% off, and due to balance changes they are completely and utterly worthless right now, so it was basically wasted MC.

you kind of have to be strategic about it thats for sure. getting the 500 from the steiner tree, and hitting up every event with an mc payout over the course of about 8 months followed by waiting for a sale netted me my misery. my arrow, huggin, and pirates bane were all free, bought on sale with event mc. this sale i managed to get a free oxide and a partially paid for legend killer, i admit i did pay cash for my ilya also on a sale i believe. i still have a lot of mc to win in fp, since i only got up to rank 6 in most factions.

granted they are getting less liberal with the mc payouts during events and all but eliminated free mech bays. there are about 22 low hanging fruit bays to be had in fp. you do have to choose whether you want a hero or a bunch of lesser mechs (mech bays), and ive bought both with event earnings.

for paid content i will take advantage of an mc sale and sit on it for months to catch a mech bay or hero sale. not quite free but a very low budget way to get things.

[Wintersdark]

I strongly object to the assertations that mechs are released OP then nerfed. While that has happened in the past, I'd argue what's FAR more common is that mechs are released underpowered. Ultimately, if anything it's a wash (read: they try to release balanced, and don't always succeed)... but statistics show otherwise.

Very, very few mechs have been released OP and then nerfed when they're released for cbills. I'd name 3 variants that were not op for every op variant you can name


With that said, statistics are heavily skewed with the Kodiak. Putting it aside, as its pushing "omg cash only mechs so many!" and there's suddenly quite few - some Black Widows and Oxides, mostly.


But; don't take that wrong, this was a great post and it's awesome to see some numbers!!

[Alistair Winter]

Wintersdark, on 06 June 2016 - 01:21 AM, said:

I strongly object to the assertations that mechs are released OP then nerfed. While that has happened in the past, I'd argue what's FAR more common is that mechs are released underpowered. Ultimately, if anything it's a wash (read: they try to release balanced, and don't always succeed)... but statistics show otherwise.
Very, very few mechs have been released OP and then nerfed when they're released for cbills. I'd name 3 variants that were not op for every op variant you can name

Well, like I said above, I don't think MWO has a long history of being P2W. However, I don't care so much that the Hellbringer was released along with 3 lemons, for example. What matters to me is how often a new mech slides into first place. PGI releases Origin mech pack, and there are 2 lemons. PGI releases 4 Unseen mechs and only 1 of them is used extensively in comp play (just as an example). The interesting question isn't whether they're all top tier mechs. The interesting question, at any given time, is how many of the top tier mechs are currently cash-only?

This thread is mostly about the present, anyway. Not so much to discuss P2W, because I don't consider it a big problem. But just to look at many different aspects of MWO right now, using the championship as a base.

A lot of the explanations we have about the meta may not be accurate, a lot of the observations about what is effective and what isn't may be wrong as well. Are stomps symptomatic of poor matchmaking, for example? Or will we see stomps in the world championship at every level?

I imagine the comp players already have a good idea of what is going on, they may not learn too much from the championships. But to casual players, the world championship is a bit more accessible than reading results about player-run tournaments.

Wintersdark, on 06 June 2016 - 01:21 AM, said:

With that said, statistics are heavily skewed with the Kodiak. Putting it aside, as its pushing "omg cash only mechs so many!" and there's suddenly quite few - some Black Widows and Oxides, mostly.

This is true, but again, this is only how it looks right now.
How many medium mechs would be Vipers if this was right after Viper release?
Phoenix Hawk could easily be a dud and the Cyclops will probably not bump the KDK-3 from its throne.
But how many heavy mechs would be Night Gyrs if this was right after Night Gyr release?

So your argument is valid, but PGI has certainly stepped up their game in terms of delivering good mechs lately. They're no longer getting away with selling huge mech packs with 2-3 lemons per pack.

Wintersdark, on 06 June 2016 - 01:21 AM, said:

But; don't take that wrong, this was a great post and it's awesome to see some numbers!!

Much appreciated. And again, I don't want to only discuss cash only mechs. Hope to have more numbers in time.

[Oderint dum Metuant]

Alistair Winter, on 05 June 2016 - 11:26 PM, said:

It's been a long time since I've seen any interesting statistic threads in the General Forum. You newbies may not remember this, but back in 2013 and early 2014, there were a lot of threads with interesting statistics, as people were trying to analyze and fix the game. But that's another story.

I figure that the world championship MWO e-sport (shhhh) tournament may be an interesting vantage point from which to analyze MWO. What mechs are most popular, what builds are most popular, what strategies are most popular, how long matches last, how common stomps are, etc.

It should get even more interesting in the second round of qualifying matches, when most of the just-for-fun teams have been eliminated, and we get a better look at the competitive players as a group. But I have taken a look at the first round of qualifying matches and, just to get the ball rolling, I started looking at the number of cash-only mechs. In other words, in an 8v8 tournament where most people are trying to meta as hard as possible, how many people are using cash-only mechs that cannot be purchased with C-bills?

Disclaimer:
Those of you who pay any attention to my posts (seems like a waste of time, but your call) will know that I'll usually say that MWO is no longer a P2W game, but it could arguably have been called that when the Clans were released and held behind a pay-wall while being frighteningly powerful. So this is not a part of some massive "MWO is P2W" bittervet campaign, quite the opposite.

A few caveats:

• The choice of mechs and builds will depend on game mode and map. So one match on one map with one particular game mode may not be very illuminating.
  
• I am not differentiating between MC-only mechs and mechs that are currently behind an early access pay-wall. Obviously, I am looking at cash-only mechs for the sake of the P2W question, and some people feel that early access isn't P2W, while others argue that early access mechs tend to be more powerful and then get nerfed after they're out for c-bills.
  
• There are currently no cash-only medium mechs, which potentially has a big effect. Especially because the latest medium mech release in the game, the Hunchback IIC, is fairly popular, but now out for C-bills.

A few interesting results:

• Of 17 matches, the team with a higher number of cash-only mechs won 5 times. The team with a higher number of c-bill mechs won 5 times. And in 7 matches, both teams had an equal number of cash-only mechs.
  
• In total, 63% of the mechs in the qualifying rounds were C-bill mechs. 37% were cash-only mechs
  
• If you disregard the medium mech category, as there are no cash-only medium mechs, then 49% of the mechs in the qualifying rounds were C-bill mechs. 51% were cash-only mechs.
  
• I didn't collect actual numbers on this, but it seems like the Jenner IIC and Cheetah are the most popular light mechs (duh) and the light mech class is the one with least variation.
  
• Medium class is probably the class with most variation. You see anything from Stormcrows to Enforcers, Griffins, Hunchback IICs, even a couple of Trebuchets.
  
• Heavy class seems to be mostly Timberwolves, Whammies and Black Knights.
  
• 61 of 68 assault mechs were Kodiaks. But please tell me more about how useless and fragile it is.
  
• One team won their match with a SDR-5K (Krivvan), which may be evidence that the MG is in fact OP and should be nerfed. Also, jump jets.

TL;DR:

• A lot of cash-only mechs in this tournament
  
• Hard to say if this will be a pattern later in the tournament, on other maps, with other game modes and fewer casual player teams.
  
• Kodiak is useless, PGI plz fix

Few things to consider im not sure where your stats were derived from, but there has been more than one spider used .

Now the important aspects, you have to keep in mind the tournament is being played in a way that we don't play MWO in general. Only playing a single map and a map such as canyon influences heavily the mechs brought and we don't use a weight limit but 2 of each class type, alot of people will just bring the heaviest meta mech of said class.

I don't know why people still bring the Black Knight, the Warhammer is better especially on canyon, it's higher mounts are helpful.

The Black widow is seeing alot of play, because it adds reliable pin point damage at low heat cost next to the UAC's that jam pretty frequently and run pretty warm.


Onto the divisive potato of the group the Kodiak. It is fragile, its also huge with a large CT hitbox. The only variant that is notably powerful is the KDK-3 and these haven't all been UAC 10 builds by the way, 2 Gauss 2 PPC is a thing (a very lovely thing).
The rest are pretty average and aren't worth talking about.

So if focus purely on the 3 ( and i don't think its OP) the UAC 10 build is powerful because of it's rate of fire and DPS potential, nothing can sit staring at it aside from an Atlas, and compared to an Atlas it has very minor structure buffs.
The UAC 10 isn't the problem, because they are pretty poor as a standalone, but 4 of them on the high mounts are incredibly effective.
I can't see an balanced way to curtail this build without doing the dumb thing of nerfing the UAC 10 (which shouldn't happen).

Good OP.

Edited by Oderint dum Metuant, 06 June 2016 - 02:18 AM.

[Deathlike]

Alistair Winter, on 06 June 2016 - 02:01 AM, said:

Well, like I said above, I don't think MWO has a long history of being P2W. However, I don't care so much that the Hellbringer was released along with 3 lemons, for example. What matters to me is how often a new mech slides into first place. PGI releases Origin mech pack, and there are 2 lemons. PGI releases 4 Unseen mechs and only 1 of them is used extensively in comp play (just as an example). The interesting question isn't whether they're all top tier mechs. The interesting question, at any given time, is how many of the top tier mechs are currently cash-only?

This thread is mostly about the present, anyway. Not so much to discuss P2W, because I don't consider it a big problem. But just to look at many different aspects of MWO right now, using the championship as a base.

A lot of the explanations we have about the meta may not be accurate, a lot of the observations about what is effective and what isn't may be wrong as well. Are stomps symptomatic of poor matchmaking, for example? Or will we see stomps in the world championship at every level?

I imagine the comp players already have a good idea of what is going on, they may not learn too much from the championships. But to casual players, the world championship is a bit more accessible than reading results about player-run tournaments.


This is true, but again, this is only how it looks right now.
How many medium mechs would be Vipers if this was right after Viper release?
Phoenix Hawk could easily be a dud and the Cyclops will probably not bump the KDK-3 from its throne.
But how many heavy mechs would be Night Gyrs if this was right after Night Gyr release?

So your argument is valid, but PGI has certainly stepped up their game in terms of delivering good mechs lately. They're no longer getting away with selling huge mech packs with 2-3 lemons per pack.


Much appreciated. And again, I don't want to only discuss cash only mechs. Hope to have more numbers in time.

I think the mechs that the comp community had initially pegged good (Arctic Cheetah, Enforcer, Kodiak) got initial buffs that solidified them ahead of the rest.

It's the mechs that people seem to "like" when it comes to lore (Archer, Gargoyle) become super disappointing because people put in more nostalgia than sense (especially when the Maddog gets still garbagey quirks, the Archer got some semblance of that initially).


It depends on expectations, and someone that either is non-observant or "clever" (as in, thinks too highly of their own ability/inability to balance) is driving that ship of balance.

[Davegt27]

Wow must be a mind reader I was up to 2:30 AM central time going back through all the matches on twitch
But I am only going to calculate avg. damage per Mech type

I have everything written down just need to calculate it out

Of course the KDK-3 is the most used Mech and also have the highest damage with 792 dmg in one match

[Triordinant]

Alistair Winter, on 05 June 2016 - 11:26 PM, said:

• 61 of 68 assault mechs were Kodiaks. But please tell me more about how useless and fragile it is.

This pretty much settles the argument. When people are playing for money they use the most OP 'mech possible.