69 replies to this topic

[InMidnightClad]

So I've been keeping track of the beta key flow and crunching numbers, mostly for myself but for my co-workers and friends as well. I've decided that maybe you guys wouldn't mind this info all in one place as well.
I'll keep it as up to date as the constantly growing member count will allow. Please feel free to let me know if I've missed any batches of key releases.

*Last Update: 6/13/12 6:29PM (PST)*

Beta Key Stats:

Current Total Number of Forum Members: 150,778
Current Total Number of Beta Keys in the Wild: 7,000
Current Number of Forum Members Without Keys: 143,778

Your Chances of Receiving a Key in a Wave of 500: 0.35%
Your Chances of Receiving a Key in a Wave of 1,000: 0.7%
Your Chances of Receiving a Key in a Wave of 1,500: 1.04%
Your Chances of Being Struck by Lightning: 0.000001%

Beta Key Releases:

1000 Keys on 5/26/12
500 Keys on 5/26/12
500 Keys on 6/4/12
500 Keys on 6/6/12
1500 Keys on 6/8/12
500 Keys on 6/11/12
As of 6/11/12 6000 keys have gone out (Resetting my total)
500 Keys on 6/12/12
4+496 Keys on 6/13/12

Good Luck to Everyone on Future Key Batches!

Edited by InMidnightClad, 13 June 2012 - 05:29 PM.

[razorkill12]

lol, nice to know the odds

[LaznAzn]

Namwons, on 11 June 2012 - 07:28 PM, said:

MOO MOO MOO (cow translation)

Uhh... Delete your post. Now.

[SnakeTheFox]

So roughly 3% of us have keys, then.

Though, stands to reason that a lot of the registered forum accounts are just dead and haven't filled out a beta profile, so your chances are probably higher than that. Maybe even as much as twice that chance.

Edited by SnakeTheFox, 11 June 2012 - 07:32 PM.

[Lokust]

Thanks, this is actually a pretty nice way to look at it.

[Tterrag]

The numbers make me a sad panda

[InMidnightClad]

Yeah I used the worst numbers possible. These don't take into account the possibility that a good chunk of the forum accounts may be abandoned and not linked to beta requests. Better to plan based on worst case scenario, your rarely disappointed and often surprised.

[Hawkeye 72]

Namwons, on 11 June 2012 - 07:28 PM, said:

I just logged in today and won the lotto. Woohoo. I still plan on buying a founders pack though wonder if I can give my founders key to someone else? Ill have to pm a dev.

after which he promptly lost the lotto when the PGI gaming commission revoked his ticket for breaking the first rule of Beta Lotto

[rockstone]

Namwons, on 11 June 2012 - 07:28 PM, said:

I just logged in today and won the lotto. Woohoo. I still plan on buying a founders pack though wonder if I can give my founders key to someone else? Ill have to pm a dev.

I smell an NDA being violated...

[IRaigothI]

Namwons, on 11 June 2012 - 07:28 PM, said:

I just logged in today and won the lotto. Woohoo. I still plan on buying a founders pack though wonder if I can give my founders key to someone else? Ill have to pm a dev.

Might wanna edit out the part about the lotto

[Hawkwings]

I smell a troll, actually.

[Mr Insane]

Namwons, on 11 June 2012 - 07:28 PM, said:

I just logged in today and won the lotto. Woohoo. I still plan on buying a founders pack though wonder if I can give my founders key to someone else? Ill have to pm a dev.

Edit: I don't see how I broke the nda by saying I received q beta. Yes I just read the nda.

Wow, I was about to post a reply saying be careful, but the Edit had popped up in the quote without refreshing the page...

Back on topic, I'm bookmarking this page. It's good to know the odds, despite them being low.

Edited by Mr Insane, 11 June 2012 - 07:50 PM.

[Namwons]

Edit

Edited by Namwons, 11 June 2012 - 08:07 PM.

[rockstone]

You're not allowed to mention it.
Read- every other statement the developers have said.
Can I have your beta key?

[Lt muffins]

rockstone, on 11 June 2012 - 07:58 PM, said:

You're not allowed to mention it.
Read- every other statement the developers have said.
Can I have your beta key?

technically he did not breach it, for all we know he won the powerball lotto or something.

Edit: read his edit to his post ... not the brightest one this kid

Edited by Lt muffins, 11 June 2012 - 08:02 PM.

[Harlequin]

Thanks for making a place to keep track of all of this. Sadly I find the percentage chance of getting a key disheartening as I dont tend to have much luck.

[Kaboodle]

For those saying he broke NDA by saying he has it, that's unlikely. Most people agree to an NDA and assume it means you can't even tell people you're in, but most NDAs stipulate that releasing the information of your involvement in the beta is fine. This was true for SW:TOR closed beta, Diablo 3 closed beta, GW2 Closed Beta, and WoW:Cataclysm Closed beta, all of which I participated in.

Usually the NO ONE CAN KNOW YOU'RE IN IT, stipulation is skipped because many people share living spaces, and it's simply impossible to not let ANYONE know you have access to a beta.

[CaptianViolence]

those are pretty long odds

[Tyborg]

Might as well wait till July then download the game and start at the bottom

[Vander StarStrife]

An admin posted a little bit ago that the current count is 6000 keys given away since May 25th .... might want to update your numbers.