Impossible Odds, Time After Time
#61
Posted 10 August 2013 - 10:18 AM
I would still say the major problem in creating walkovers is a lack of cohesion/tactics - that really is a probem that sucks the fun away. It's also vhard to fix...
#62
Posted 10 August 2013 - 10:20 AM
I pug mostly, and get plenty of stomps, but gets worse if I'm with My buddies. Then the matchmaker actively balances matches against us.
Our lance: Me in a ac5/med laser jager, new guy in a stalker, Buddie #1 in an lrm catapult, Buddie #2 in a spotter spider.
Bravo lance: ALL BRAND SPANKING NEW PLAYERS IN TRIAL MECHS
Opposing force: All custom-tailored mechs driven by relatively experienced players.
We get stomped, they win. Happens. All. The. Time. I've been getting My butt kicked for the past two days now, and what few buddies I have in this game regularly give up and just run lights and fast-cap the other guy's base, just so they can actually win a match for once.
#63
Posted 10 August 2013 - 10:49 AM
I seem to get put on a team with "first-timers" in trial mechs every match (A1's asking where their lasers are) . Is MWO experiencing a massive influx of new players? Instead of planning a strat I end up explaining basic game mechanics. I thought new players suppose to only be put against other new players for 100 matches of something?
Match after match I get teams that make a lot of noise but get no results. I check the score screen to see how we are doing and all the kills we have are my own. I have had a couple really good, fun matches but they are WAY too far between.
I can't trust my team to pull any weight so my new tactic is to use them as a meat shield. I hang back watching them fire lasers at the sky, TK each other, and walk in circles and while the enemy team rips them to shreds I can get a few surprise kills in.
Edited by kuangmk11, 10 August 2013 - 10:49 AM.
#64
Posted 10 August 2013 - 10:53 AM
DeaconW, on 10 August 2013 - 06:23 AM, said:
No I didn't. The difference is between making 50:50 a goal - which the matchmaker relentlessly tries to achieve by creating impossible matchups across players of quite differing skill levels - vs just creating matches between teams comprised of similarly skilled players... which incidentally would likely end up for many as a 50:50 W/L.
We are not currently having games with similarly skilled players. That's the problem.
#65
Posted 10 August 2013 - 11:02 AM
kuangmk11, on 10 August 2013 - 10:49 AM, said:
New players get a New Player Elo score for their first 25 matches along with a Standard Elo score. For the first 25 matches they are matched based on their NP Elo but any change in score also effects the Standard Elo.
After 25 matches the NP Elo disappears and they are placed in matches based on their Standard Elo.
Unfortunately the original Standard Elo score they get is roughly the AVERAGE Elo score among ALL players. And since Elo changes very slowly.....and most players are within a standard deviation of the average score......yeah. You end up with people in trial mechs with 26 matches played put on teams of veterans.
kuangmk11, on 10 August 2013 - 10:49 AM, said:
Pretty much it. My new tactic is to not do anything until the 10min mark. After all the nubs rushed and the snipers are all dead or soften up I'll do a bit of flanking and blindside the other team. So far it's been a very effective strat for a 100% solo pugger.
#66
Posted 10 August 2013 - 11:07 AM
Appogee, on 10 August 2013 - 10:53 AM, said:
No I didn't. The difference is between making 50:50 a goal - which the matchmaker relentlessly tries to achieve by creating impossible matchups across players of quite differing skill levels - vs just creating matches between teams comprised of similarly skilled players... which incidentally would likely end up for many as a 50:50 W/L.
We are not currently having games with similarly skilled players. That's the problem.
I agree with you about the problem, but you are still not getting why your statement was non-sensical. By saying "I want reasonably even odds" you are, by definition, asking for 50/50 results or close to it. They are logically and mathematically equivalent statements. I would like "reasonably even odds" as well...I just disagree with PGI's way of doing it...
#67
Posted 10 August 2013 - 11:16 AM
#68
Posted 10 August 2013 - 11:20 AM
ztac, on 10 August 2013 - 11:16 AM, said:
What is this "certain people list" you speak of. And how do I get on it.
#69
Posted 10 August 2013 - 11:59 AM
#70
Posted 10 August 2013 - 12:05 PM
#71
Posted 10 August 2013 - 12:06 PM
My explaination was that us 6 must have been ELO Gods and the only way the game could balance us out was to give us 2 to 1 odds....or at least that is the story I am sticking with <wink>.
On a positive note, I did manage to kill one of the enemy before dying, though I was the only one on my team who got a kill hehe.
#73
Posted 10 August 2013 - 02:35 PM
DeaconW, on 10 August 2013 - 08:49 AM, said:
Think some more.
You're constantly playing with and against different players so in the long run the influences of each individual cancel each other out. You however are the only constant in all the teams you are in (duh). So the result of a match can be used, even in a team game.
To understand why in the long run your team mates cancel out try to imagine all possible matchups, each and every one of them. There will be some where your team is just plain better, there are some where the other team is plain better. There will be some where your team is slightly better, there will be some where your team is slightly worse. If you are a good player there are more combinations of matchups where your team has the advantage then when you're a bad player.
Now the match maker already preselects those combinations of matches where you'll have teams that are only slightly different. So if your true rating is much higher your team will actually be much better and you'll win those games. This will send your Elo up until the match maker has estimated your correctly. It also works the other way around when you're are say **** drunk and not living up to your rating.
DeaconW, on 10 August 2013 - 09:03 AM, said:
I'm sorry. But that is not what the match maker is trying to do. No wins are handed out.
Sug, on 10 August 2013 - 11:02 AM, said:
After 25 matches the NP Elo disappears and they are placed in matches based on their Standard Elo.
Unfortunately the original Standard Elo score they get is roughly the AVERAGE Elo score among ALL players. And since Elo changes very slowly.....and most players are within a standard deviation of the average score......yeah. You end up with people in trial mechs with 26 matches played put on teams of veterans.
Actually when Elo changes it changes with at least 25 points at the time. So actual players S-Elo will be identical to his N-Elo in 8 losses. All those losses are unexpected because the match maker puts him in a match with N-Elo players but calculates with his S-Elo. He is expected to win but fails to do so.
#74
Posted 10 August 2013 - 03:30 PM
Hauser, on 10 August 2013 - 02:35 PM, said:
Think some more.
You're constantly playing with and against different players so in the long run the influences of each individual cancel each other out. You however are the only constant in all the teams you are in (duh). So the result of a match can be used, even in a team game.
To understand why in the long run your team mates cancel out try to imagine all possible matchups, each and every one of them. There will be some where your team is just plain better, there are some where the other team is plain better. There will be some where your team is slightly better, there will be some where your team is slightly worse. If you are a good player there are more combinations of matchups where your team has the advantage then when you're a bad player.
Now the match maker already preselects those combinations of matches where you'll have teams that are only slightly different. So if your true rating is much higher your team will actually be much better and you'll win those games. This will send your Elo up until the match maker has estimated your correctly. It also works the other way around when you're are say **** drunk and not living up to your rating.
Even if I spot you that "multiple players doesn't matter because it evens out"...you still have the changing mapboard and pieces.
Besides, the matchmaking isn't random...I can pick 2,3,4 or 12 constants on my side if I wish. Play with 3 other people I know and trust "inflates" my ELO but going back to solo pugging my ELO is "deflated". Like I said, IMO there are too many variables to make this type of ELO system work.
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I didn't say that is what it was *trying to do*...I was stating an unintended consequence of the MM's failure. I don't feel it is a true win either, when I get the occasional 12-0 on the win side.
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You know the way you phrased this reinforces my "ELO gives people wins" statement, right?
#75
Posted 10 August 2013 - 03:32 PM
In all seriousness it isn't the match maker that is most at fault and it isn't pugging. It's the people. Almost every drop I loose it's because a number of the team either won't pay attension to what is going on, go off chasing light mechs, don't go to where the enemy is, or just rush in foolishly.
Take for instance yesterday, I typed in that there were 4 mechs in a location on Terra Therma, and three mechs came over and helped me kill a Dragon - then they just left - leaving me to face three more mechs alone - despite my typing in that there were more there repeatedly. End result was they got surrounded and taken down.
I continue to see teams on River City going the opposite way that the other team is going (even when it's been called out where they are going and that they are pushing) and then stopping and milling around in confusion for several minutes while the rest of their team is killed trying to defend the base. Then outnumbered they get rolled up and wonder what went wrong (must be those nasty premades!).
Then there are those wonderful times we have found the enemy and have a line built to stop them and face them down when suddenly a light pops up behind us and half to three quarters of the team turns and tries to chase it down. Then the enemy pushes are weakened line and we get rolled.
Then there are those that think they can just rush over a ridge into the middle of the enemy team and fight a one on one with a mech and that his team mates will just set there and let them do this. Then they wonder why they died so fast (It's those PPCs and gauss I tell you!)
I submit that the issue isnt the match maker. The problem is the dumb things people do. I've seen teams with only 1 assault and 2 heavies take out a 5 assaults and 3 heavies 8:1 simply because they played smart (and were all pugs). If people play smart (don't go running off) and pay attension to what is going on and the big picture - there wouldn't BE any "impossible odds." Stop running off and leaving your team mates hanging when a light gets on base or there is a report of something in the tunnel. Stay on the line and fight instead of trying to chase that Jenner in your Atlas or Stalker.
Yes you can and will get steam rolled on occation but for the most part all of the lop sided victories I've seen were the result of foolish play on the loosing teams part.
Edited by Steel Claws, 10 August 2013 - 03:36 PM.
#76
Posted 10 August 2013 - 03:35 PM
Steel Claws, on 10 August 2013 - 03:32 PM, said:
But that IS the MM...it decided those people were close enough to your skill level to play with you.
#77
Posted 10 August 2013 - 03:38 PM
DeaconW, on 10 August 2013 - 03:30 PM, said:
Those are just more permutations.
DeaconW, on 10 August 2013 - 03:30 PM, said:
There are many variables but Elo only looks at three. The outcome of the match, your teams Elo and your opponents Elo. The Elo ratings are under control of the algorithm so the only free variable is the match out come. Anything you do that influences the outcome will be reflected in your Elo rating. I can't think of a more effective system really.
DeaconW, on 10 August 2013 - 03:30 PM, said:
Only if the new player isn't actually a new player but that won't last because his N-Elo will go up pretty fast.
Edited by Hauser, 10 August 2013 - 03:53 PM.
#78
Posted 10 August 2013 - 03:41 PM
70% of every team, every game is made up of assaults, there should be 2 assaults, 2 heavies, 2 lights and the rest mediums per team.
#79
Posted 10 August 2013 - 03:45 PM
DeaconW, on 10 August 2013 - 03:35 PM, said:
But that IS the MM...it decided those people were close enough to your skill level to play with you.
Actually match maker tries to average things out. To do this it will stick good players with bad. This isn't a bad thing. Then there is the whole queue thing. If the queue isn't very full you get who ever is available. The idea behind match maker isn't bad it just needs to have a bit of weight balancing thrown in for good measure but ultimtely it all comes down to who is in the queue when you drop and what they do during the drop - and this is something that simply cannot be coded.
Edited by Steel Claws, 10 August 2013 - 03:47 PM.
#80
Posted 10 August 2013 - 04:00 PM
Steel Claws, on 10 August 2013 - 03:45 PM, said:
I'm afraid you are mistaken.
http://mwomercs.com/...-making-update/
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It's closest to a target value, so the match maker starts trying to make a match for an Elo of say 1300 and will pull in players to those teams closest to those values; however, as mentioned earlier within growing thresholds and those curves will be tuned. Currently it may be a bit 'sloppy' about how it's filling those buckets but over time it will be tuned to be much more precise.
We need to do this carefully over time as generally the cost of precision is time to find a match we want to slowly find a very nice balance between time to find a match and the number of matches that are correctly composed.
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