56 replies to this topic

[Craig Steele]

Was Leo Showers the evil villian that many hold him out to be?

Let's examine what we know.

We know for sure that in 3048, the Grand Council met to discuss the appearance of the Outbound Light over Huntress. Some sources in canon portray this meeting was dominated by 'politicing', insinuating that the council was twisted into a vote in favour of the Invasion.

We also know that both Warden and Crusader movements believed that the Clans would return to the Inner Sphere and defeat the military power of the House Lords. A fight was inevitable and all Clans envisaged some sort of combat.

When the Outbound Light found the Clan homeworlds and their location discovered, the risk was that the Clans would be fighting the House Lords on Clan worlds, that Clan industry would be destroyed by WMD and Clan civilians killed. This was a risk all the Clans faced and all the Clans (bar one famously) voted that offense was better than defense, and to fight the house lords on their territory where there was no threat to the Clan worlds.

Politicing implies behaviour that moves a minority into a majority, but here we see 16 of 17 Clans voting in favour. Was 'politicing' really that successful or was it that the risk was real and the vote was simply a landside for the most obvious course of action.

We also know that trials were held to establish which Clans were the strongest and most viable as only the best the Clans could offer would be able to undertake this task. While the order is unknown, we know the top three were Smoke Jaguar, Jade Falcon and Ghost Bear (all Crusaders) and the next 3 were Nova Cat, Steel Vipers and Diamond Shark (all Wardens).

Clan Wolf was gifted a place of honour in the front line of the Invasion ostensibly as they carried the heritage of Nicholas Kerensky but we know that Leo was not above diplomacy. Perhaps rather he was extending a hand of friendship to Clan Wolf after their defeat in the Invasion refusal and the loss of all their allies. Perhaps he thought that if he gave the Wolves an opportunity to redeem themselves they would be more willing to act in accordance with the will of the Clans, and Nicholas's vision?

We know that as Il Khan, Leo assigned the Wolves the easiest Invasion corridor. The Clan Wolf source book suggests this was a way of dishonouring Clan Wolf but what were the alternatives. Leo had already granted them access to the Invasion itself they had not earned (with the consent of the Grand Council), should he also give them the highest honour at the forefront of the Invasion. How would the other Clans react if Leo had taken from them what their warriors earned in battle to gift to Clan Wolf?

Leo headed up the Invasion itself from the Clan Wolf flagship. Ostensibly the Clan Wolf sourcebook records this as a slight to Clan Wolf honour, that they needed to be supervised. But was it?

Three Clans had proven themselves worthy of participating in the Invasion, Clan Wolf had not. As Il Khan, he was responsible for the success of the Invasion as instructed by the Gran Council. Should he have trusted the only Clan unproven to implement his plan, or should he have remained close at hand to ensure that the Wolves were up to the task. The Invasion was his responsibility, he was chosen by the Grand Council for his skills, perhaps Clan Wolf would need his tactical and strategic acumen in the coming battles?

We also know that in Clan Culture, the Il Khan is admired greatly. Could it not be that Leo hoped his presence would be a morale boost to Clan Wolf warriors and aid them in the coming challenge.

The Khans assembled and Leo outlined his plan for the Invasion. He wished for each Clan to launch their attacks on a specific timetable and then rest and repair. This would ensure not only that logistics were not stretched (it was a long way back to the Clan worlds) but that the stronger Clans could ensure the central thrust was not threatened by flanking attacks. This seems reasonable given the central clans faced such weak opposition, if they performed at a reasonable level they may well outstrip their flank guards. An Inner sphere counterattack could then cut off the tip of the spear and destroy the central Clans, costing the Clans victory. All the Khans agreed to this plan as sensible and appropriate.

So when after two waves were completed, Clan Wolf had taken 16 systems, Clan Jade Falcon 21, Clan Smoke Jaguar 15 and Ghost Bear just 8 he must have had concerns. His central thrust against the weakest of IS armies was hardly on track. His own Smoke Jaguars were finding going tough against the Combine. The Falcons could hold their head high, not only had they attacked more worlds but they had faced and destroyed as many major enemy formations than the other Clans combined combined.

But now again Leo is painted in a derogatory light by ordering that Ghost Bear and Wolf should bid for the planet of Rasalhague as more politicing and attempting to restrict Clan Wolf. But he did not order a trial for planet, only a bidding contest. Had he wanted to restrict Clan Wolf he was well within his rights to order the two Clans to fight for it, but that would mean causalities to his own army and hinder his ability to execute his task. Perhaps it was more that he wanted two of his Clans that were performing less well to have a morale booster, a chance of honour. Clan culture is filled with anecdotes of bidding well being an honour. Leo set cut downs that he saw as appropriate for the task and let the Wolf and Bear earn their own slice of honour.

And if this was so, it seems to have worked. We now know that Clan Wolf won the honour of attacking Rasalhague and their warriors fought with new found enthusiasm in the third wave. Clan Wolf took 11 worlds in wave three, one more than their first wave and yet Leo is assigned no credit for motivating Clan Wolf and reinvigorating their touman.

Leo's fourth wave of the Invasion was due to commence July and once complete all Clans would pause as they had agreed and done for the first 3 waves. Yet inexplicably, Clan Wolf continues to attack Inner Sphere worlds deep into September and October without forewarning Leo they intended to push on.

This may well have been Leo's fear. That the Clan that never proved itself as capable for the Invasion was now in danger of derailing it. If they extended beyond the protection of their flanking forces, they were ripe for destruction by a counter attack, and indeed at Twycross the Jade Falcons had just suffered a reverse to a local IS counter attack.

Did Leo cursed himself for over exciting Clan Wolf, was his presence such a morale booster that the Wolves had lost sight of the strategic reality. Was Ulric willing to waste his soldiers lives for no purpose as he had at the Invasion Refusal Trial. Leo could not know the answers to these questions, but he did the sane thing and summoned all the Khans to a Kuraltai at Radstadt where he could reiterate his plan and ensure everyone was working towards the Grand Councils will, the conquest of Terra.

Famously, there he lost his life. And what of that?

We know that Ulric requested the Khans arrive with only the minimum of troops, and far less than the Wolves had in system. They arrived in smaller ships with less fighters and dropships than the Wolves. We know that Ulric and Focht were deep in each others council. We know that the Republic was a long time friend of Comstar. We know the Comguard was not yet deployed to the field.

The Clan Wolf sourcebook clearly states that Ulric wanted to minimize bloodshed, he feared a possible fight. Why? Was he not faithfully acting in accordance with his instructions? Leo had not shown before any inclination to set his troops against each other, why did Ulric fear it now? What had Ulric done or what did he plan to do that would require battle?

Could it be that Ulric and Focht planned a change of power, a coup de tate? Could it be that Focht summoned the FRR forces, only Comstar sources confirm they were 'repairing' in a uncharted system and it's not as if Comstar has not blatantly lied in field reports before. Whilst no one could have planned the courage of Miraborg, could the Drakon's assault been a distraction for some scheme of Ulric's that was still born by her deeds, but achieved the same goal?

So what do you think?

Was Leo the nefarious villian set upon blood thirsty conquest even if it meant sacrificing his troops. Or was he a capable general and servant of the Clans betrayed from within by petty jealousy and blind ambition?

History is written by the victors?

[CyclonerM]

History is, indeed, written by the victors.

Yours is an interesting post, however i think it is msotly full of speculation. Ergo, i still think he was a villain, or, at least, another blind Crusader. I know i present no counterpoints, but i have been convinced by the novels that he is far from being a Hero of the Clans and you have not convinced me (yet? ).

Anyway, i think he died too son to fully express his character.

[Craig Steele]

CyclonerM, on 16 March 2014 - 11:09 AM, said:

History is, indeed, written by the victors.

Yours is an interesting post, however i think it is msotly full of speculation. Ergo, i still think he was a villain, or, at least, another blind Crusader. I know i present no counterpoints, but i have been convinced by the novels that he is far from being a Hero of the Clans and you have not convinced me (yet? ).

Anyway, i think he died too son to fully express his character.

LOL, most of what I refer to comes from the novels. As for speculation sure all questions are a bit of speculation, thats their nature.

But the point is that there is another side to the story that has never been answered.

In particular I have yet to find anyone who can justify why Ulric felt the need to outnumber the other Clans at Radstadt. He had no cause to think there would be combat and yet he activily planned for it, and sought to minimize bloodshed. Ulric was the only person in canon preparing for a fight on Radstadt, why?

There are only two realistic answers.

Either he thought he was about to be attacked which there is no canon to support. Indeed Leo accepting the items Ulric requested suggests strongly that no assault on Clan Wolf was planned by Leo. Had Leo been planning an assault he would have brought troops for it. He didn't even attempt to match the Wolf garrison on system.

Or Ulric was planning on attacking. Given it was an occupied system and no Inner Sphere enemies, who was Ulric planning to attack? There is only one other party in system, the other Clans.

Like some other canon there are conflicting views, but people often cling to a headline without questioning its source of the headline.

[CyclonerM]

Craig Steele, on 16 March 2014 - 04:21 PM, said:

In particular I have yet to find anyone who can justify why Ulric felt the need to outnumber the other Clans at Radstadt.

My opinion is that he just wanted it to remind the Khans of the IlKhan's power, or something like that. Symbolic. If you have to pass between two lines of armed troops to talk with the IlKhan, i guess your power looks inferior.

I cannot find my Wolf Sourcebook .pdf (looks like it has been deleted ) so i wait for Jaroth Corbett to post some quotes from it about Radstadt.

Anyway, i fail to see how could Ulric have plotted with ComStar without knowing of the incoming attack, unless ComStar plotted to use the battle of Radstadt to weaken and possibly behead the Clans without directly losing their trust.. But this IS speculation

[Craig Steele]

CyclonerM, on 17 March 2014 - 05:43 AM, said:

My opinion is that he just wanted it to remind the Khans of the IlKhan's power, or something like that. Symbolic. If you have to pass between two lines of armed troops to talk with the IlKhan, i guess your power looks inferior.

I cannot find my Wolf Sourcebook .pdf (looks like it has been deleted ) so i wait for Jaroth Corbett to post some quotes from it about Radstadt.

Anyway, i fail to see how could Ulric have plotted with ComStar without knowing of the incoming attack, unless ComStar plotted to use the battle of Radstadt to weaken and possibly behead the Clans without directly losing their trust.. But this IS speculation

Of course it's speculation, if it happened it would be in the books (in some format or another)

So the stuff in the source book specificlly says Ulric wanted to "...avoid bloodshed if it came to blows with the Il Khan..." and he does this by outnumbering the other Clans. One way to look at it would be Ulric beating his chest saying "don't you dare", another way would be "more guns, kill em quick, short sharp engagement"

But the point is that is Ulric envisaging there will be fight, and he has no reason to unless he has done something wrong or is planning to do something wrong. Why would Leo be any threat to Ulric if he was being a faithful servant / general and executing the Il Khans orders. He wouldn't be and we know from canon that Leo didn't bring any troops spoiling for a fight, so we have to conclude that Leo wasn't planning on one.

As for the comstar thing, well it might not have been a grand conspiracy. It may have just been Ulric dropping a few hints, "gee whiz, I really hope the FRR doesn't move to Rasalhague in force during the next two weeks. Tell Glaxay Commander Ward I want those troops moved up pronto" or some such and Focht, thinking he is helping out contacts his buddies in FRR and says, "hey, got anything lying around". Obviously this is a reeeeeaaaaallllyyyyy basic example, but the point is these two guys talked all the time and we assume we know what they are talking about.

But if Ulric was planning a fight (as his actions suggest he may have been) then its possible that there are others options that might have happened that we ignore because of the headline.

What was Ulric scared of? And more importantly, why was scared?

[Gyrok]

The manipulation by Showers was presenting evidence and information in an alarmist manner and not correctly portraying the incident in the proper light that led to the vote.

Showers was fearmongering and blood thirsty, and more clans than should have bought into it as a flimsy excuse to invade (the real cause of the invasion of the clans was flat out boredom and an inborn genetically driven desire to conquer something...this coming from a clansman mind you).

[Craig Steele]

Gyrok, on 17 March 2014 - 06:06 AM, said:

The manipulation by Showers was presenting evidence and information in an alarmist manner and not correctly portraying the incident in the proper light that led to the vote.

Showers was fearmongering and blood thirsty, and more clans than should have bought into it as a flimsy excuse to invade (the real cause of the invasion of the clans was flat out boredom and an inborn genetically driven desire to conquer something...this coming from a clansman mind you).

LOL, you're succinct

It was 16 to 17, that's not politicing Thats the bleedin obvious

IDK, I can see the Cloud Cobra warriors relaxing in a hammock throwing stones in a tin 20 meters away as they sip pina colada's, not sure about the others though

[Kael Posavatz]

Craig Steele, I believe you and Gyrok both make good points.

Leo Showers was a product of the society and culture that created him.

Did he exaggerate the potential threat of the Inner Sphere to the Clan Worlds? Certainly. The same stretched logistics previously mentioned hampering the Clans would have gone double for the Inner Sphere. It was only the bitter irony that the Clans were the cause of the Second Star League forming that allowed them to mount Operation Serpent at all, and only the fact that they targeted only one clan (and the others all stayed out of it) that allowed them to pull it off.

Furthermore, Leo Showers totally discounted the Wolf Dragoon's early reports--and the crewmen of Outbound Light--that the Inner Sphere had no WarShips. These would have been the perfect weapon platform to interdict any invasion force if the Clans had truly willed it. And, quite honestly, no one House to mount an invasion a year of travel time away--assuming they knew where they were going--and there really was no cause (pre-invasion) behind which the Houses would unify which would make an invasion possible.

Once the decision had been made, however, and the loss of the Trial of Refusal had finalized things, he more than demonstrated his failings as a war-leader. His plan to stop after each wave showed the short-comings of the Clan's logistical posture to the Inner Sphere, and gave them valuable time to upgrade their weapons, adjust tactics, and move forces. His restricting the Invasion Force to only five clans (and two spare) left the Invasion Force woefully under-manned. Yes, any Clan formation out-gunned a comparable-sized unit many times over, but given the sheer size of the Inner Sphere and the numbers available that, if there was sufficient time and political will, the IS armies could afford to stop the Clans by building barricades of bodies and burning mechs, and drowned the Clan Warriors in blood and coolant. Instead of bringing forward more personnel and equipment (aside from the provisional garrison clusters to hold captured worlds) and encouraging other Clans to work together to achieve objectives and mirror Clan Wolf in forward-deploying supplies, he attempted to hold Clan Wolf back.

In short, he had a plan and was going to stick to it come hell or high-water. Tactical inflexibility is one of the few truly grave failings of a warrior, and strategic inflexibility is an equally grave failing in a senior officer.

Of course, he was not alone in letting his preconceptions influence his estimation of the Inner Sphere. There was a wide-spread fallacy in all the Clans that all they would have to do is land on Terra and proclaim the Star League reborn and that would be the end of things. After all, it had worked for ComStar. The difference was that ComStar presented the IS with a fait accompli when it took Terra, and second it had a universal strangle-hold on one of the very few truly vital resources--the HPG net.

His biggest failing, if you will, was one all the Clans shared. Clan warfare had evolved back towards set-piece battles. Both sides of any battle knew when a battle would be fought and on what ground. They knew what each side would bring. Surprise, in the military sense of the word, was considered dishonorable and had not really played a part in Clan Warfare since the early days when the OmniMech, Elemental Armor, and the advanced infantry and aerospace pilot genomes had been introduced. The Clans hadn't fought a war as the Inner Sphere recognized the term since the Annihilation of the Not-Named at the very least, and arguably Operation Klondike.

As Gyrok noted, some of the Clans allowed themselves to be duped. At the very least the Goliath Scorpions should have known what the Clans were getting ready to stick their hands into. But most of the 'dupe' the Clans did to themselves. It was a social-cultural 'dupe', if you will, that allowed Leo Showers to play to their prejudices and preconceptions.

Clan Wolf did say something by staging a Trial of Refusal despite being a product of that same culture, but that same culture left it no obligation to try and explain why Operation Revival would be a bad idea. In the end it would allow the battlefields of the Inner Sphere determine who had the right of the matter...just like any other trial.

Edited by Kael 17, 17 March 2014 - 07:11 AM.

[Gyrok]

Well said Kael

[Craig Steele]

Kael 17, on 17 March 2014 - 07:10 AM, said:

Craig Steele, I believe you and Gyrok both make good points.

Leo Showers was a product of the society and culture that created him.

Did he exaggerate the potential threat of the Inner Sphere to the Clan Worlds? Certainly. The same stretched logistics previously mentioned hampering the Clans would have gone double for the Inner Sphere. It was only the bitter irony that the Clans were the cause of the Second Star League forming that allowed them to mount Operation Serpent at all, and only the fact that they targeted only one clan (and the others all stayed out of it) that allowed them to pull it off.

Furthermore, Leo Showers totally discounted the Wolf Dragoon's early reports--and the crewmen of Outbound Light--that the Inner Sphere had no WarShips. These would have been the perfect weapon platform to interdict any invasion force if the Clans had truly willed it. And, quite honestly, no one House to mount an invasion a year of travel time away--assuming they knew where they were going--and there really was no cause (pre-invasion) behind which the Houses would unify which would make an invasion possible.

Once the decision had been made, however, and the loss of the Trial of Refusal had finalized things, he more than demonstrated his failings as a war-leader. His plan to stop after each wave showed the short-comings of the Clan's logistical posture to the Inner Sphere, and gave them valuable time to upgrade their weapons, adjust tactics, and move forces. His restricting the Invasion Force to only five clans (and two spare) left the Invasion Force woefully under-manned. Yes, any Clan formation out-gunned a comparable-sized unit many times over, but given the sheer size of the Inner Sphere and the numbers available that, if there was sufficient time and political will, the IS armies could afford to stop the Clans by building barricades of bodies and burning mechs, and drowned the Clan Warriors in blood and coolant. Instead of bringing forward more personnel and equipment (aside from the provisional garrison clusters to hold captured worlds) and encouraging other Clans to work together to achieve objectives and mirror Clan Wolf in forward-deploying supplies, he attempted to hold Clan Wolf back.

In short, he had a plan and was going to stick to it come hell or high-water. Tactical inflexibility is one of the few truly grave failings of a warrior, and strategic inflexibility is an equally grave failing in a senior officer.

Of course, he was not alone in letting his preconceptions influence his estimation of the Inner Sphere. There was a wide-spread fallacy in all the Clans that all they would have to do is land on Terra and proclaim the Star League reborn and that would be the end of things. After all, it had worked for ComStar. The difference was that ComStar presented the IS with a fait accompli when it took Terra, and second it had a universal strangle-hold on one of the very few truly vital resources--the HPG net.

His biggest failing, if you will, was one all the Clans shared. Clan warfare had evolved back towards set-piece battles. Both sides of any battle knew when a battle would be fought and on what ground. They knew what each side would bring. Surprise, in the military sense of the word, was considered dishonorable and had not really played a part in Clan Warfare since the early days when the OmniMech, Elemental Armor, and the advanced infantry and aerospace pilot genomes had been introduced. The Clans hadn't fought a war as the Inner Sphere recognized the term since the Annihilation of the Not-Named at the very least, and arguably Operation Klondike.

As Gyrok noted, some of the Clans allowed themselves to be duped. At the very least the Goliath Scorpions should have known what the Clans were getting ready to stick their hands into. But most of the 'dupe' the Clans did to themselves. It was a social-cultural 'dupe', if you will, that allowed Leo Showers to play to their prejudices and preconceptions.

Clan Wolf did say something by staging a Trial of Refusal despite being a product of that same culture, but that same culture left it no obligation to try and explain why Operation Revival would be a bad idea. In the end it would allow the battlefields of the Inner Sphere determine who had the right of the matter...just like any other trial.

I don't see that the threat was exagerated, although an argument could be made that the timing of the threat was over estimated. The Dragoons reported that the Inner Sphere was closer to uniting than it had ever been and then when silent. The Outbound Light crew would also have painted a picture of an Inner Sphere about to swamped by an 'evil' house lord. One may argue that the subjugation of the free people of the Inner Sphere uner the warlord Hanse was imminent or in the distant future, but it was undoubtably on the agenda. An Inner Sphere with all its resources united under another usurper was no idle threat to the Clans.

You are however incorrect about Leos 'failure' as a war leader. Not only was his plan working reasonably well, but where Clans fell behind he showed ability to get them going again. As I have pointed out many time, the Wolves were far from "smashing ahead", thats just an outright fallacy. And yet Leo offers them a chance of honour and they respond. Hardly inflexiable if he was willing to switch things up. You talk about the time for the Inner Sphere to change things as if it was one sided. The Clans like any other military force needed to rest and resupply. Warriors get tired, transport gets stretched. A couple of weeks spent ensuring the next waves success was far more valuable to the Clans than to the Inner Sphere. As the Jade Falcons demonstrated against the toughest oppostition.

What victories the Inner Sphere did earn were massive efforts and cost the Inner Sphere far more than the Clans lost. Discounting Wolcott which was earned through deception, a mistake the Clans did not repeat. Twycross was 6 to 1 against the Clans discounting armour, and if you accept that the Guard fired not a shot, it was closer to 10 to one against a Solhama unit, and still the counter attack was nearly lost.

Luthien the odds were similarly stacked.

As I have shown, its only Clan Wolf sources that claim they were 'held back' when the numbers clearly show they were at best catching up.

Tactical Flexibilty is only an asset if it is used when required. Disregarding a successful plan to meet the ego or vanity of junior generals would be the mark of a poor leader. Indeed, it speaks volumes that Leo did not censure the wayward Ulric who so clearly set about jeapordising the Invasion.

[Gyrok]

LOL...ok, do tell, please outline how his "plan" worked so well during phase 1 of the invasion and how Clan Wolf "Fell behind" I would be highly amused considering every source in the last thread said everyone else was running on fumes trying to keep up...

[Craig Steele]

Gyrok, on 17 March 2014 - 03:47 PM, said:

LOL...ok, do tell, please outline how his "plan" worked so well during phase 1 of the invasion and how Clan Wolf "Fell behind" I would be highly amused considering every source in the last thread said everyone else was running on fumes trying to keep up...

I said his plan was being derailed?

It was a sound plan, but his centre was not performing (and arguably neither was his Jaguar flank either) by the end of wave 2. SO he organises a chance for his centre clans to earn some honour and Clan Wolf who wins that honour, suddenly strats to catch up.

Wave 3 they draw level with the Falcons.

Wave 4 again Wolf is staying level with the Falcons, but instead of stopping as he said he would, Ulric pushes his troops on into Sept and Oct. The other Clans do as well, trying to protect Wolf's flanks but if the situation continues then the risk to Leo's plan is that Clan Wolf outstrips their flank protection, gets cut off and destroyed. Battles were raging on Twycross and Wolcott that were not going well for the Clans. Leo wanted to ensure his flanks (like any half sane military commander would) and Clan Wolf was jeapordising themsleves against his orders.

It was insubordination at best, treason at worse.

[Gyrok]

The numbers were mostly even through the first waves, except where the falcons took 11 worlds with 1 that had RCT level forces...during that wave, you could easily argue that the Falcons themselves had the "easiest" corridor...

The Falcons were not superior in any way shape or form, and I would argue that the only reason they outpaced anyone at any point was the fact that they themselves hit a soft spot.

[Glxy Cmdr Jason Tseng]

Wow. All of that is well thought out Craig. I know I HAD been biased against Khan Leo Showers due to my liking of Clan Wolf and Phelan Kell. I have not read the novels since I was an early teen, and had never given thought to what the Grand Council would have debated and gone through to elect the ilKhan for the invasion, and what would such a figurehead have to have in the ways of strategy and teamwork. Having been in the military and knowing what qualities a war leader needs to have, has made me reconsider my view of Khan Leo. Looking back on the novels and your posts (and counter posts by Gyrok and others), I have to say that he was the victim of circumstance. We do know that Ulric wanted an end to the Invasion, due to his Warden leanings, and talks with PM Focht. We know that he, while ilKhan, forced the other clans into bidding too low for the Battle of Tukyyid to achieve his goal of a cessation of hostilities.

Khan Leo Showers WAS a better leader for the Invasion, as he best embodied the will of the Grand Council to retake Terra. And the hits against him about politicking to "dupe" other Clans into following could be said double for Ulric and his ways of getting more Wardens closer to him and into positions of power (ie Natasha Kerensky and Phelan's trial of Posistions and eventual elevation to Khans.)

Ulric did not like the Invasion, and his ACTIONS show that he never had any other goal than to end the war, one way or another.

Well done for making me look at the canon a little bit differently from this day forward.

Edited by Glxy Cmdt Jason Tseng, 17 March 2014 - 05:08 PM.

[Craig Steele]

Gyrok, on 17 March 2014 - 04:48 PM, said:

The numbers were mostly even through the first waves, except where the falcons took 11 worlds with 1 that had RCT level forces...during that wave, you could easily argue that the Falcons themselves had the "easiest" corridor...

The Falcons were not superior in any way shape or form, and I would argue that the only reason they outpaced anyone at any point was the fact that they themselves hit a soft spot.

This is just blantly untrue, the canon is very clear.

The first wave Falcons fought regiment or larger forces on 7 of the 9 worlds they succesffuly invaded. Clan Wolf just 3 on the 10 worlds they invaded.

The second Wave the Flacons fought 5 regiment or larger engagements on 12 worlds they invaded, Clan Wolf fought NONE on the 6 worlds they invaded.

Clan Wolf was falling behind other Clans and doing so against negliable opposition.

By the end of wave four it was 43 Clan Wolf vs 42 Clan Jade Falcon. They caught up against the weakest Inner Sphere army and by the time Leo was taken out of the equation, Clan Wolf was equal with Clan Jade Falcon.

Clan Wolf was never "racing ahead", at best they caught up. The headline that Clan Wolf portrays to justify their actions (Oh dear we are such a victim of the nasty Crusaders) does not hold water on examination of the numbers.

Now granted, Ghost bear and SJ were lagging further, but thats not Clan Wolfs claim is it. Its that they were racing ahead and Leo was trying to hinder them and I submit they were not and he was not.

[Craig Steele]

Glxy Cmdt Jason Tseng, on 17 March 2014 - 05:04 PM, said:

Wow. All of that is well thought out Craig. I know I HAD been biased against Khan Leo Showers due to my liking of Clan Wolf and Phelan Kell. I have not read the novels since I was an early teen, and had never given thought to what the Grand Council would have debated and gone through to elect the ilKhan for the invasion, and what would such a figurehead have to have in the ways of strategy and teamwork. Having been in the military and knowing what qualities a war leader needs to have, has made me reconsider my view of Khan Leo. Looking back on the novels and your posts (and counter posts by Gyrok and others), I have to say that he was the victim of circumstance. We do know that Ulric wanted an end to the Invasion, due to his Warden leanings, and talks with PM Focht. We know that he, while ilKhan, forced the other clans into bidding too low for the Battle of Tukyyid to achieve his goal of a cessation of hostilities.

Khan Leo Showers WAS a better leader for the Invasion, as he best embodied the will of the Grand Council to retake Terra. And the hits against him about politicking to "dupe" other Clans into following could be said double for Ulric and his ways of getting more Wardens closer to him and into positions of power (ie Natasha Kerensky and Phelan's trial of Posistions and eventual elevation to Khans.)

Ulric did not like the Invasion, and his ACTIONS show that he never had any other goal than to end the war, one way or another.

Well done for making me look at the canon a little bit differently from this day forward.

Well thank you, and that is really why I raise the points. Canon is full of headlines and some of them are indusputable, but some are unsupported.

We can all question the righteousness of the Invasion from an IS perspective (and lets be honest, they are not going to say we deserved it) but that's a slanted view.

Is there another side to these characters other than the one forced down our throats by the interested parties?

[Kael Posavatz]

You misunderstand my point. No, the wolves were not, to use your term 'smashing ahead'. What they did do when Ulric reformulated the Clan Wolf strategy was maintain a steady, relentless pace. They kept a steady, relentless pressure--what one of USA's finest cavalry generals (if otherwise lacking as a human being) called 'the skeer'--on the Inner Sphere and the other Clans did not.

Yes, the Inner Sphere's victories almost always required a large imbalance in men and material. That was my point. The Inner Sphere had the men and material that if the political will to accept the losses incurred in pursuit of that strategy it was a winning strategy with the proviso that it had time enough to re-equip units--remember, the FWL had effectively become the arms producer in the 'secure rear area' for the Combine and Federated Commonwealth--and move those units forward.

Short and blunt. The Inner Sphere could afford a war of attrition. The Clans, operating at the end of a very long supply line, and in any case much smaller in absolute and effective terms (individually Clansmen are superior taking equipment into account, the Inner Sphere simply had that many more people), could not.

The need to get as deep as possible before those numbers could be effectively brought to bear played into Ulric Kerensky's thinking when he formulated Clan Wolf's strategy. That it would 'show up' those who had voted for Operation Revival by taking more worlds more quickly was also a factor, certainly. But a third was an attempt to open the other clans' eyes to the realization that the fundamentals of war in the Inner Sphere were different from battling other Clansmen or smashing bandits.

Leo Showers failed to recognize the threat posed by the Inner Sphere's massive manpower. Less efficient than the Clans' civilian population, but its size was enough to support a far larger military in absolute terms.

He failed to draw correct conclusions about the mentality of the warriors in the Inner Sphere as opposed to those of the Clans. Principally their (usual) inability to honorably concede when they are out-matched as seen in the large number of insurgencies and guerilla actions destroyed formations spawned. But also seen in the tactics adopted by the Inner Sphere. On Planting the IS general (I don't remember who, but it was a Davion in charge of a Steiner formation or the reverse) drew Clan Wolf saKhan Garth Radick into a series of running ambushes that eventually forced him to break his bid and call in a full cluster of additional troops. On Rasalhague there was, of course, General Mansdottir's famous reply to Ulric Kerensky's batchall that he would use any means, "honorable or vilest trickery" to keep the Clans from having his homeworld.

His worst mistake, however, was to dismiss the people of the Inner Sphere as "barbarians" (per his comments prior to first jump) and bandits. In dismissing them as a people and society, different as they might be from his own, he was unable to formulate a realistic assessment of what he faced without challenging the bedrock his beliefs were founded upon. Without a realistic assessment he was unable to alter his strategy at all, to the point where he was colluding with other Clans to hold Clan Wolf back (bidding for Rasalhague comes immediately to mind. Even if he did not encourage the Ghost Bears to bid, he did agree to postpone the bidding until mere days before Ulric' planned to invade, tying up a full Galaxy of Clan Wolf for the better part of a month in the process) so that their advances would be more in alignment with where his strategy insisted they 'should' be in their progress.

[Craig Steele]

Kael 17, on 17 March 2014 - 05:46 PM, said:

<snip>

Clan Jade Falcon finished wave 4 with 42 worlds, an average of 10 per wave, Clan Wolf 43, 10 per wave. If your argument is that Clan Wolf maintained a steady rate overall then they were not alone as you represent.

In 3051 FWL was not even close to being the supplier of material it would become. Yes some of their merchants were taking advantage, but we are talking about only 6 months of warfare. There is no way for Marik to suddenly up their production and then deliver a sufficient quantity of materials. Now we could argue (although there is no canon) that they emptied their depots to make a quick buck, but at this time the threat the Clans posed was not understood so they had very little incentive to risk their realm's security to feed the armies of their enemies. Not until Jamie Wolf calls his council during the pause does the supply ability of FWL commence, and it's impact is not flowing through until a few years later.

Leo's plan envisaged the same steady assault you describe placing the Clans on the verge of Terra in 3053. This was insufficient time for the IS muster and consider what Leo knew. Romano was loopy as heck and was not coming to anyones aid. Comstar would have been saying discount Marik, we got that covered, they are not coming to the front. And he was running over FC / DC. He had every reason to believe strategy wise, his plan was working and it would only be if they deviated from the plan that it would not succeed.

Short and blunt, the Inner Sphere was loosing a war attrition. Their casualities in the only successes they had were horrendous and not sustainable. In 6 months the Clans absolutely annihilated over 30 regiments of Battlemechs including 5 complete RCT's. Those units were completely written off, without any comparable loss to the Clans.

You say Leo Showers mis judged his opponent, but he may well have been right. If it were not for Comstar magically producing over 10k Battlemechs for Tukayyid, the IS had nothing new that the Clans had not already chewed through. And the Clans were hardly desperatly short of supplies overall. Most IS planets have munition production facilities so that was always an option to supplement. Omni mechs could be reconfigured with energy weapons. These were exactly the things that Ulric was doing only he was doing it faster. But it wasn't anything new, the other Clans just had a caste basis for it (ie, Warriors first, then the rest once we say it's all safe) where as Ulric had the tech's and merchants going on planet straight after the troops.

I can however agree that dismissing the Inner Sphere as barbarians was a mistake. He was not alone, and culturally Alexander and Nicholas left guidance that dictated exactly this but it is a challenge that has often been demonstrated in history. It's a fine line between motivating your people with the belief of victory (ie, we are going to win because we are good) vs dismissing the enemy as incompetent.

Couple of points, Clan Wolf wasn't delayed, the 3rd wave started in late June and Clan Wolf attacked the planets in front of Rasalhague in early July. Clan Wolf was still starting attacks on other systems of the 3rd wave in July / mid July, those beside and beyond Rasalhague. They won the bid and attacked within the wave, had they lost the bid they would attacked other worlds within the same timeframe.

It was the 41st Avalon Hussars on Planting, not sure about the CO but yes, Radick definitly broke his bid. Now that you mention it I actually cannot remember any other Clanner breaking his bid? I'll have to check

As of the 4th wave ending, his concern would have been the Combine flank (with Wolcott a particular thorn) and the centre. His FC flank would have appeared sound. Things weren't unravelling though, Luthien was firmly in his sights (2 jumps?) and he would have envisaged that its seizure would have kick started the Jag's advance. Indeed, we know that the mecenaries Hanse sent to Luthien were instrumental in securing victory there, and Hanse would not have sent them if Luthien was attacked Nov / Dec, DC was in all sorts of trouble in that scenario.

However Leo's overall strategy was working (with some fine tuning obviously required). Your argument about Ulric's strategy is sound. The only problem with it is that it was not Ulric's call. He was supposed to be a loyal soldier obeying the Il Khan executing the Grand Councils will. He was not and by default, his actions threatened to derail the Il Khans plan. It was a conscious sabotage for his own benefit. What astounds me is no one seems to get the double standards. Wolf supporters are all fine and dandy with Ulric doing his own thing to suit the Warden cause, but if a Crusader dares look sidewise at the Inner Sphere when Ulric is Il Khan, they are evil betrayers of Ulric orders and warrant extermination.

[Kael Posavatz]

Aff, Leo Shower's strategy was working

It likely would have continued to work...for a while.

My point is that the Inner Sphere as a whole had the depth to trade for time while bleeding the Clans.

Time that could be used to improve their military hardware. Time that could be used to develop anti-Clan tactics. Time to move units to achieve local superiority of force. These were all things that the IS was able to do during the lull in hostilities due to Leo Shower's death.

If he had not died could the Clans have kept going? Of course. But the Inner Sphere had the resources to achieve the same result if they were willing to pay the cost in lives and machines.

If he had not died, and the will existed in the IS to pay the cost in blood, Leo Showers would have eventually been forced to alter his strategy. To bring up more forces--either the reserve clans, or additional front-line and secondary galaxies--or to sequence waves one after the other instead of his advance-pause-advance-pause strategy, or something else entirely. Actually, he had already been forced to do this when he brought up the Provisional Garrison Clusters. He just failed to extract any understanding of why they had been necessary and draw conclusions from it.

It isn't that Leo Showers failed to act. It is that he failed to act quickly enough. He was very much centered on what was happening 'now', when it was his job as the Clans supreme warleader to be thinking about what the spheroids were going to do next and adjust his strategy accordingly. As far as he could see was that things were going his way and he expected, and that would continue indefinitely.

I do not see him as a hero, but nor do I see him as a villain.
Certainly he never sat down and asked himself 'how can I best screw over the Clans and the Inner Sphere?'
I do see him as a product of his culture, with what are, in a War Leader, severe short-comings.

[Craig Steele]

Kael 17, on 17 March 2014 - 10:50 PM, said:

Aff, Leo Shower's strategy was working

It likely would have continued to work...for a while.

My point is that the Inner Sphere as a whole had the depth to trade for time while bleeding the Clans.

Time that could be used to improve their military hardware. Time that could be used to develop anti-Clan tactics. Time to move units to achieve local superiority of force. These were all things that the IS was able to do during the lull in hostilities due to Leo Shower's death.

If he had not died could the Clans have kept going? Of course. But the Inner Sphere had the resources to achieve the same result if they were willing to pay the cost in lives and machines.

If he had not died, and the will existed in the IS to pay the cost in blood, Leo Showers would have eventually been forced to alter his strategy. To bring up more forces--either the reserve clans, or additional front-line and secondary galaxies--or to sequence waves one after the other instead of his advance-pause-advance-pause strategy, or something else entirely. Actually, he had already been forced to do this when he brought up the Provisional Garrison Clusters. He just failed to extract any understanding of why they had been necessary and draw conclusions from it.

It isn't that Leo Showers failed to act. It is that he failed to act quickly enough. He was very much centered on what was happening 'now', when it was his job as the Clans supreme warleader to be thinking about what the spheroids were going to do next and adjust his strategy accordingly. As far as he could see was that things were going his way and he expected, and that would continue indefinitely.

I do not see him as a hero, but nor do I see him as a villain.
Certainly he never sat down and asked himself 'how can I best screw over the Clans and the Inner Sphere?'
I do see him as a product of his culture, with what are, in a War Leader, severe short-comings.

Thats pretty well reasoned, I see no flaws to your sentiment here.

I do think he was reasonably quick to act though in changing up the Rasalhague system to be bidded for rather than simply sitting back and leaving CW / GB both 'following the program' when it was becoming clear they were needed some push (which side you argue from). His chosen method was subtle, and not a knee jerk reaction (which ever way you argue, he either did not switch out a poorly performing clan nor did he try and hinder a political opponent toumans) which is a hall mark of a fair leader.

On the IS, well yes it is difficult to judge. The key issue for me is what would happen to the DC if Luthien had of fallen. They were hurting badly, and if not for the pause then they had precious few reserves to throw into the battle. It would not have been fortified, and any fresh forces would be far from dug in. I suspect they would have fought like demons, and a massive power play might have erupted. Takashi would not have given it up, Theodore may well have let the capital fall instead of risking the DCMS. The DC's fate may well have hung on who issued the assassination order first?

The PGC's were the provence of the Clans themselves, part of their toumans, that was their call to make. But I suspect one of the outcomes of Leo's Kuraltai might have been the activation of a reserve Clan, possibly two. He had to be worried about the Jaguar flank and while it would have been shameful to a degree, he was above the clans and greater honour was there with successfully taking Terra. I can see the Steel Vipers being deployed into Smoke Jaguars IZ, and the Nova Cats or Diamond Sharks with their larger navies being used as a long flanking force, a short stab into either the FC (unlikely given Flacons looked to be on top of things) or somewhere between the SJ zone and Outworlds Alliance.

Is we look at the IS map, Tukayyid (which was the wave 5 line) is not that far from Terra, they were making pretty good time. The IS didn't have a lot of time left I suspect.

What is still the major downfall in all the Clans plan was the assumption that if they took Terra, the house lords would roll over. Someone else touched on this and clearly, this was never going to be the case. Could the Clans have held on to what they had while fighting for Terra? I suspect that question revolves heavily around the DCMS and what state it is in.

On thing to challenge your thinking about Leo, his opening address at his Kuraltai pre Invasion 3050.

"My heart hoped for glorius wars against honourable warriors. My mind expected honourless battles against uncivilized barbarians. You tell me that our conquest of the Inner Sphere will be nothing more than skirmishes against cowardly children, Imagine my bitter disappointment"

On this basis, was he really as unprepared for big battles as we think (he yearned for it, surely he provisioned for it) and his assessment of the IS was guided by reports form his Khans. Maybe he had a higher regard for them than his Khans if he truly was "disappointed"