35 replies to this topic

[Chaosity]

PGI says the maps are randomly selected. Really? Here are the odds of getting the same map...

2 times in a row: 1 in 14
3 times in a row: 1 in 196
4 times in a row: 1 in 2744
5 times in a row: 1 in 38416
6 times in a row: 1 in 537824

Now then, if PGI is not lying to us about random map selection then I better go buy some lotto tickets because I've been hitting that half million to one way too often.

Would anyone at PGI like to tell us how the maps are REALLY SELECTED?

[Stealth Raptor]

as far as i can tell looking at my map stats, every unique map layout has an equal chance of being selected, and if a map with multiple variants is selected, it picks one of the 2 variants randomly, so there is an inherent less chance you will see a specific map like forest colony snow over canyon. both variants of a map with multiple variants have a combined equal chance as a map with 1 variant. this is just by looking at my map stats:

Forest Colony 82
Frozen City 89
Caustic Valley 162
River City 77
Forest Colony Snow 88
Frozen City Night 80
River City Night 79
Alpine Peaks 178
Tourmaline Desert 171
Canyon Network 168
Terra Therma 157
Crimson Strait 190
HPG Manifold 203

River City Total 156
Frozen City Total 169
Forest Colony Total 170

everything seems within the limits of random variants. it looks even better if you combine the multiple variants of each map into one

the only real outlier is HPG and Crimson, every other map is within 15 of 170, and the average games per map assuming perfect spread is 171

Edited by Stealth Raptor, 28 July 2014 - 12:24 PM.

[EyeOne]

Why would it be anything but random?

[Lightfoot]

I got Manifold '7' times in a row yesterday and Canyon Network 4 times in a row. So i understand.

[Lostdragon]

Keep in mind the map is used for 23 other people who may not have played that map multiple times in a row. You are not a special snowflake.

[EgoSlayer]

I'll just put this here...

[Escef]

I think it would be nice if the random map generator low-weighted maps that players have had recently. For example, if 4 players last map was Canyon, and one guy's last 3 drops were in Tourmaline, it would lower the chances for those two maps for the current drop.

[Sandpit]

Chaosity, on 28 July 2014 - 12:14 PM, said:

PGI says the maps are randomly selected. Really? Here are the odds of getting the same map...

2 times in a row: 1 in 14
3 times in a row: 1 in 196
4 times in a row: 1 in 2744
5 times in a row: 1 in 38416
6 times in a row: 1 in 537824

Now then, if PGI is not lying to us about random map selection then I better go buy some lotto tickets because I've been hitting that half million to one way too often.

Would anyone at PGI like to tell us how the maps are REALLY SELECTED?

RNG

show us your maps played. I'm pretty sure they'll be evenly spread.

[Devayner]

They can have a map on a higher rotation priority.Maybe a newer map they want ran more to find geometry flaws or stickey spots.

At least i think ./ shrug

[Sandpit]

Devayner, on 28 July 2014 - 02:04 PM, said:

They can have a map on a higher rotation priority.Maybe a newer map they want ran more to find geometry flaws or stickey spots.

At least i think ./ shrug

yes, they've stated that they also increase a map's rotation when it is first introduced to help even it out with the other maps. But that shouldn't be the case here. That's usually for a month or so after a map is released to help get it "caught up" and give players something new to get sick of as well as, like you said, test for bugs and such I'm sure. lol

[John1352]

The night/day ones are definitely linked, so there's only really ten. Which means chances are:

Twice in row: 1/10
Three times: 1/100
(unless I missed a map, you have 14?)

There's definitely something up with the RNG though, I suspect it is actually a cycle. First group of day gets mordor, second gets caustic, third gets tourmaline....... when each map has been launched, it starts again.

If the number of games running at once is a multiple of the number of maps, you'll come out of your game and start searching when the map you just played comes around again.

[MonkeyCheese]

Lostdragon, on 28 July 2014 - 12:46 PM, said:

Keep in mind the map is used for 23 other people who may not have played that map multiple times in a row. You are not a special snowflake.

Exactly this, them miracle odds would only be useful if the same 24 people go the same map over and over.

[Monkey Lover]

I put 4 ppc on my dire and hit the 38,000 bucks on terra last night. I don't think they're random at all.

Boat lrms and you almost never see a open map.

Edited by Monkey Lover, 28 July 2014 - 11:29 PM.

[Kilo 40]

Chaosity, on 28 July 2014 - 12:14 PM, said:

Would anyone at PGI like to tell us how the maps are REALLY SELECTED?

I'd LOVE to know how you think the maps are actually selected, and why they would lie about it being random.

[Monkey Lover]

Kilo 40, on 28 July 2014 - 11:28 PM, said:

I'd LOVE to know how you think the maps are actually selected, and why they would lie about it being random.

In my view maps are used as another form of balancing. They punish high heat mechs with hotter maps. They punish lrm boats with city and canyon or other places with lots of cover.

I can not understand how anyone can think they can hit 4 or even 3 maps in a row and it be normal.

Edited by Monkey Lover, 29 July 2014 - 12:45 AM.

[Chaosity]

Sandpit, on 28 July 2014 - 01:57 PM, said:

RNG

show us your maps played. I'm pretty sure they'll be evenly spread.

That's not the issue... map averages. It is game to game randomness that is in question. If we go your direction (map averages over time) are you saying that 10 caustic valley in a row, followed by 10 alpine peaks, followed by 10 canyon network, etc. qualify as being selected randomly. They will average out over time, as you are suggesting.

But if you believe (and the rest that have brought this up as the answer) that this is game to game random map selection you need new drugs (or I do).

Edited by Chaosity, 29 July 2014 - 12:33 AM.

[Kilo 40]

Chaosity, on 29 July 2014 - 12:32 AM, said:

That's not the issue... map averages. It is game to game randomness that is in question. If we go your direction (map averages over time) are you saying that 10 caustic valley in a row, followed by 10 alpine peaks, followed by 10 canyon network, etc. qualify as being selected randomly. They will average out over time, as you are suggesting.

But if you believe (and the rest that have brought this up as the answer) that this is game to game random map selection you need new drugs (or I do).

I think the issue here is you don't understand how chance works.

[MechWarrior849305]

I can clearly say that next map will be the Therma. Just by saying "This will be my last map for tonight" Always true

Edited by DuoAngel, 29 July 2014 - 01:29 AM.

[MonkeyCheese]

Monkey Lover, on 28 July 2014 - 11:38 PM, said:

I can not understand how anyone can think they can hit 4 or even 3 maps in a row and it be normal.

Because the world doesn't revolve around you. just because you get terra therma 4 times in a row doesn't mean that the other 23 people also get terra therma 4 times in a row.

[Y E O N N E]

Lightfoot, on 28 July 2014 - 12:25 PM, said:

I got Manifold '7' times in a row yesterday and Canyon Network 4 times in a row. So i understand.

I would happily play Manifold 7 times in a row. Shoot, let me just rotate among Manifold, Tourmaline, and Alpine. The rest if the maps are meh, except River City...which is heck no!