4 replies to this topic

[Applejack]

***PREFACE: THIS THREAD IS SILLY, I REALIZE WE'RE GETTING FREE STUFF***

So, this latest event is basically gambling.
That's a tad silly, but I haven't found any information on the forums whatsoever about the percentile chances of getting X result in in the Stocking Stuffer Event.

In particular, I wanted to know my exact chances of getting at least one mech bay.
Turns out that is, from 100 stocking stuffer yanks, less than 25%.

However, I'll be a little more (im)precise and show a bit of mathematic stupidity.

The two most subjectively useles yanks are GXP and consumables.
The most objectively useless yanks are cockpit items.

The most subjectively useful yanks are 'Mech bays and MC.
The most objectively useful yanks is probably just 'Mech bays, as its a total reward of about $2.

Of 29 yanks,
0 have been 'Mech bays.
1 has been a day of premium time. Premium time isn't 'Mech bays so **** you.
7 have been MC (for a grand total of 135 MC -- my prior calculated average based on the website grand totals was 17 MC per yank, i've been slightly lucky and have managed 19 MC per yank on average). The MC yanks have varied from 5 to 45 MC. Half a 'Mech bay. Yay.
7 have been C-Bills. Average ~100,000 Cbills per yank. Cbills can't buy 'Mech bays so **** you.
0 have been "Naughty". At least I got that going for me, which is nice.
5 have been GXP. No amount of GXP is worth getting in the place of a 'Mech bay (or anything) so **** you.
7 have been Consumables. Like GXP, C-bills, cockpit items, and naughty items, if I had the opportunity I would straight up decline this gift and say "**** you, Santa" all the while squatting in my pitifully small 'Mech hangar array. Crying. Considering a communist revolution so everyone can have more 'Mech bays.
2 have been cockpit items. Whoopditty friggin doo.

At least MC seems to have an equal chance to roll it as Consumables and C-Bills.
At least Naughty and Mech Bay seems to be the rarest rolls.

All in all, if you are gambling for a 'Mech bay and you weren't going to play over these two weeks anyway, don't bother. It's a waste of time.

Edited by Applejack, 20 December 2014 - 12:49 PM.

[Heisenbug]

Out of 39 qualifying matches, I've received 2 mech bays.

[Aiden Skye]

You know what? You're right. This tread is silly!!!

[Levi Porphyrogenitus]

Here is what I've collected so far:

C-Bills: 75,000 C-Bills
C-Bills: 100,000 C-Bills
C-Bills: 112,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 62,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 112,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 112,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 75,000 C-Bills
C-Bills: 112,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 62,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 112,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 112,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 112,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 87,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 500,000 C-Bills
C-Bills: 87,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 100,000 C-Bills
C-Bills: 100,000 C-Bills
C-Bills: 87,500 C-Bills
C-Bills: 75,000 C-Bills
C-Bills: 100,000 C-Bills
C-Bills: 112,500 C-Bills
Total: 2,412,500 C-Bills

Cockpit Items: Snow Globe
Cockpit Items: Snow Globe
Total: 2x Snow Globe

GXP: 300 GXP
GXP: 300 GXP
GXP: 100 GXP
GXP: 100 GXP
GXP: 400 GXP
GXP: 300 GXP
GXP: 400 GXP
GXP: 500 GXP
GXP: 200 GXP
Total: 2600 GXP

Consumables: Priority Artillery Strike
Consumables: Priority Air Strike
Consumables: Priority Air Strike
Consumables: Priority Air Strike
Consumables: Improved Coolant Pod
Consumables: Improved Coolant Pod
Total: 3x Priority Air Strike, 2x Improved Coolant Pod, 1x Priority Artillery Strike

Naughty: 1 Medium Laser
Naughty: 1 Flamer
Total: 1x Medium Laser, 1x Flamer

MC: 10 MC
MC: 10 MC
MC: 5 MC
MC: 5 MC
MC: 50 MC
MC: 35 MC
MC: 20 MC
MC: 40 MC
Total: 175 MC

0 Premium Time awards, 0 Mechbays. I do have over half a Mechbay in MC, though. The effective MC value goes up if you include the price of the consumables and the cockpit items, but since I will likely never use any of those consumables (I have the Improved c-bill versions of Artillery and UAV on all my mechs) and I'm not particularly thrilled with extra snow globes, I'm not sure how useful that modified MC count would be.

My bonus c-bill earnings are pretty solid, though.

[Heisenbug]

...i should have mentioned, i've received 3 awards of 1 day of premium time (which counts as a c-bill bonus too, i suppose) in addition to the 2 mechbays. I've also received one naughty reward, a single heat sink (woot!). I think it may be truly random, and as such it's going to vary person to person.