100 replies to this topic

[AeusDeif]

Shimmering Sword, on 27 December 2014 - 12:35 AM, said:

I envy the factions who are underpopulated, you don't have to deal with long wait times.

I'm sure you'll join one soon, then, right?

Socop, on 27 December 2014 - 05:24 PM, said:

Do numbers affect the game significantly or do they not? Because you seem awfully quick to insist that they do when it would make davion look like the outgunned hero defying all odds, and just as quick to insist they don't when people point out your unusually rapid progress on every front bordering you.

LOL I made a similar response in another thread. And I have similarly said we need access to the raw data to see how it applies. Until then it's all subjective. "If you torture the data long enough, it will confess."

StillRadioactive, on 27 December 2014 - 04:27 PM, said:

Kurita + Liao + Marik = a substantially larger population than Davion, and Davion is still winning.

Still accusing people of ignoring basic facts?

AeusDeif, on 27 December 2014 - 01:47 AM, said:

As for the math, Liao is the only number that is 100% against Davion. Marik's numbers are split between Davion and Steiner. Kurita's are split between 2 clans, Frr, Steiner... so only a fraction of their populace counts against Davion.

Davion forum-fighters habitually talk about how 'challenging' the game is for them but then post statistics about how their planetary gains far outstrap every other IS faction's.

Anyway, I'm sure a lot of people would enjoy CW more in general, whether they win or lose, if they knew their contributions weren't made meaningless by stacked odds.

Edited by AeusDeif, 27 December 2014 - 11:34 PM.

[StillRadioactive]

I just posted this in another thread, so I might as well copy it here too. It applies.

Spoiler

Just having a look at the numbers, we can divide the factions into 3 population categories: small, medium and large.

Small:

• Liao
  
  • -11 planets, 1 war. One war against a large faction.
• Rasalhague
  
  • -12 planets, 3 wars. One war against a large faction, two wars against medium factions (both with IS help and clan interference).
• Smoke Jaguar
  
  • +7 planets, 1 war. One war against a large faction (with IS interference and clan help).
• Jade Falcon
  
  • +10 planets, 1 war. One war against a large faction (with IS interference and clan help).

Medium:

• Marik
  
  • -2 planets, 2 wars. Two wars against large factions.
• Wolf
  
  • +8 planets, 1 war. One war against a small faction (with IS interference and clan help).
• Ghost Bear
  
  • +21 planets, 2 wars. One war against a small faction (with IS interference and clan help) and one against a large faction (with IS interference and clan help).

Large:

• Steiner
  
  • -16 planets, 4 wars. One war against a small faction, another against a different small faction (with IS help and clan interference). One against a medium faction. One against a large faction.
• Kurita
  
  • -29 planets, 4 wars. One war against a small faction (with IS help and clan interference). One war against a medium faction (with IS help and clan interference). Two wars against large factions.
• Davion
  
  • +24 planets, 3 wars. One war against a small faction. One war against a medium faction. One war against a large faction.

Please tell me if there are any inaccuracies in this, then tell me why you believe population alone determines who wins and who loses.

Edited by StillRadioactive, 28 December 2014 - 07:01 AM.

[Scoops Kerensky]

StillRadioactive, on 28 December 2014 - 07:01 AM, said:

...tell me why you believe population alone determines who wins and who loses.

Are you still reading our posts?

Socop, on 27 December 2014 - 06:53 PM, said:

If you'd like to point out where I said the numbers are the only factor I'd love to see it. My beef is the insistence by certain folks that it not only doesn't matter, the current mechanics mean there's no way it could.

...

Numbers aren't a binary everything/nothing line either. It could just be that their an X factor that's going to tip people into winning more often than losing statistically. None of us can know unless PGI decides to release hard information that we can all look at. That's my point.

You're also still not accounting for the effect population has on timezones. It matters very little if Kurita is the 4th largest faction if a significant portion of our organized playerbase operates on timezones outside of the current ceasefire, and I imagine Kurita is far from being the only faction that suffers from it.

You also still haven't answered my question. Does population affect gameplay or doesn't it in your view?

[Shimmering Sword]

AeusDeif, on 27 December 2014 - 11:32 PM, said:

I'm sure you'll join one soon, then, right?

That's an eventuality. Considering Davion is on top, we can only go down when we move. ACES picks a home every 2 weeks based on member voting. We ended up re-signing with Davion for a 2nd contract because we've enjoyed the unified command structure (and have not been able to find anything similar among the other factions), but I'm going to push the votes hard to swing us out next cycle so we get some variety.

[StillRadioactive]

Socop, on 28 December 2014 - 07:15 AM, said:

Are you still reading our posts?



You're also still not accounting for the effect population has on timezones. It matters very little if Kurita is the 4th largest faction if a significant portion of our organized playerbase operates on timezones outside of the current ceasefire, and I imagine Kurita is far from being the only faction that suffers from it.

You also still haven't answered my question. Does population affect gameplay or doesn't it in your view?

Does it affect gameplay? Yes.

Does the cohesion of that population affect gameplay? Yes.

A massive horde of pugs is a liability. A massive amount of 12-mans is an asset. A massive amount of 12-mans who all band together and act as one super-unit will be able to fight a 3-front war and win on all sides despite having lower population than the three foes together.

MWO is a game that rewards teamplay, and putting the game on a map has only scaled up both the teamplay required and the reward for it.

Just as a 12-man on comms is exponentially more effective than 12 solo players, a unit that can have 4 12-mans acting as one is exponentially more effective than those same 4 12-mans if they don't coordinate.

We long suspected this to be the case.

Phoenix Legion proved it by doing exactly that against us yesterday. For the first time in a VERY long time, Liao was Davion's biggest threat.

Liao.

The smallest faction we fight against.

Why is this?

Because unit cohesion is an effective force multiplier. Don't blame Davion for your lack of force if you're not utilizing all the force multipliers available to you.

[AeusDeif]

StillRadioactive, on 28 December 2014 - 07:01 AM, said:

Please tell me if there are any inaccuracies in this, then tell me why you believe population alone determines who wins and who loses.

tell me why you believe I believe that, when I've said otherwise. I'm guessing cognitive dissonance, or maybe you realize you have to misrepresent our arguments to keep from blatantly contradicting yourself.

StillRadioactive, on 28 December 2014 - 07:23 AM, said:

Does it affect gameplay? Yes.
Does the cohesion of that population affect gameplay? Yes.
A massive horde of pugs is a liability. A massive amount of 12-mans is an asset.

You are acting as if having a raw numbers advantage and having a raw number-of-units advantage are somehow completely different things. units = part of the population. If everyone can join the same faction, that means all units can join the same faction. It is the -same- flaw in game design.

In the beginning, raw pugs and ghost caps were a bigger factor. Less so now, but people complaining about overpopulation also took a higher number of units into account. Why do you think my suggestion thread from the 22nd outlines a way to keep units proportional on opposing sides of a border?

Quote

Because unit cohesion is an effective force multiplier. Don't blame Davion for your lack of force if you're not utilizing all the force multipliers available to you.

Right, and here is the crux of the matter, you assume that because you're doing it and winning, the guys that are losing aren't doing the same thing. We are. We just don't have as much Force to Multiply via said multipliers. This is because a larger amount of units joined Davion, which you admit to here. Hence a numbers advantage. Please tell me it hasn't taken you this long to understand what we've known the whole time.

Also, about being outnumbered by the combined populations of surrounding factions -- isn't this true about every faction? Certainly true of the ones you are listing as your opponents.

Edited by AeusDeif, 28 December 2014 - 09:07 AM.

[AeusDeif]

Anyway, I keep hearing that Davion's gains are based on the advantage of teamwork. The distinction is that in most parts of this game the teams are even. When it comes to CW and factions, there is nothing in place to make the teams even. Let's say you select a less populated faction, hit skirmish, and it puts you in matches that are 9 vs 12.... fun?

Now apply that to CW where you are in a faction with 9 units, up against a faction with 12 units, all other things being equal. What does that advantage have to do with skill?

Edited by AeusDeif, 28 December 2014 - 09:14 AM.

[StillRadioactive]

AeusDeif, on 28 December 2014 - 09:12 AM, said:

Anyway, I keep hearing that Davion's gains are based on the advantage of teamwork. The distinction is that in most parts of this game the teams are even. When it comes to CW and factions, there is nothing in place to make the teams even. Let's say you select a less populated faction, hit skirmish, and it puts you in matches that are 9 vs 12.... fun?

Now apply that to CW where you are in a faction with 9 units, up against a faction with 12 units, all other things being equal. What does that advantage have to do with skill?

Matchmaker limits the number of attackers on a planet to the number of defenders on that planet, so long as there are at least a handful of defender groups available.

The matches are 12v12. The work behind the scenes is to maximize the effectiveness of those 12s so that each group wins more, and each win is worth more in the grand scheme of things.

[Driftwoood]

StillRadioactive, on 28 December 2014 - 07:23 AM, said:

Just as a 12-man on comms is exponentially more effective than 12 solo players, a unit that can have 4 12-mans acting as one is exponentially more effective than those same 4 12-mans if they don't coordinate. We long suspected this to be the case. Phoenix Legion proved it by doing exactly that against us yesterday. For the first time in a VERY long time, Liao was Davion's biggest threat. Liao. The smallest faction we fight against. Why is this? Because unit cohesion is an effective force multiplier. Don't blame Davion for your lack of force if you're not utilizing all the force multipliers available to you.

Meh... I think you're over thinking things, at least as far as Liao is concerned... we fight at one planet, and it seems what Phoenix Legion has done is more than double the active number of players... they seem to bring 4 units daily for long stretches... don't think the rest of Liao has ever brought 4 units combined...

[AeusDeif]

StillRadioactive, on 28 December 2014 - 12:25 PM, said:

Matchmaker limits the number of attackers on a planet to the number of defenders on that planet, so long as there are at least a handful of defender groups available.

Now you are just making things up. Matchmaker has never done this except in cases where there are enough defenders to fill 11 matches of 12. And now it's up 15x12. That is per planet. So on one front that is 360 players. what you call 'at least a handful'

Davion math is getting really tiresome.

Quote

The matches are 12v12. The work behind the scenes is to maximize the effectiveness of those 12s so that each group wins more, and each win is worth more in the grand scheme of things.

I'll put this simply because I may have to repeat it 10 more times. More units in a faction means more 12 mans, faster matches and wins, more 12 mans vs. pugs. There is a point at which it has no effect, but most factions aren't fielding 30 12 mans on each front.

[bobF]

And the Davie propaganda campaign continues on all fronts.

Population matters in objective-based PvP. It's actually the single biggest contributor to victory. Anyone who's played MMO PvP with factions will tell you so. The zerg absolutely matters, whether you are spamming queues with your pugs and premades, or coordinating your zerg to flood a zone (for games that have massive pvp).

Everyone who's played more than one PvP game knows this. So, for all your protestations House Davion, you are this game's Zerg Faction.

Grats.

[Alexander Steel]

I just had a ghost win against Liao.

[Davers]

StillRadioactive, on 27 December 2014 - 04:27 PM, said:

You keep harping about this overwhelming population advantage, completely ignoring two basic facts:

Kurita + Liao + Marik = a substantially larger population than Davion, and Davion is still winning.

Kurita = a slightly larger population than Ghost Bear, and Ghost Bear is still winning.

Kurita = a substantially larger population than Smoke Jaguar, and Smoke Jaguar is still winning.

Davion may be the single largest faction, but we only make up ~15% of the game. Population alone doesn't determine success... if it did, then Smoke Jaguar would have never left Turtle Bay.

I am curious, how did you get these estimates for faction sizes?

[StillRadioactive]

AeusDeif, on 28 December 2014 - 05:33 PM, said:

Now you are just making things up. Matchmaker has never done this except in cases where there are enough defenders to fill 11 matches of 12. And now it's up 15x12. That is per planet. So on one front that is 360 players. what you call 'at least a handful'

Flat-out incorrect. As I've shown many times before, matchmaker only holds one group in the real queue at a time. All the surplus are in the ghost queue.

Davers, on 28 December 2014 - 06:56 PM, said:

I am curious, how did you get these estimates for faction sizes?

Well, we know that Smoke Jaguar is the smallest because PGI said so. We know that Liao is 2nd smallest because it has the same bonus as Smoke Jaguar. We know that Jade Falcon is 3rd because it has a reduced bonus.

Apart from that, it's working off of ooooooold ooooooold data that someone compiled when faction affiliation was first displayed on the forums:


I really wish someone would do the legwork and get the number of regular forum users now that CW has forced faction declaration.

[Abivard]

StillRadioactive, on 28 December 2014 - 07:01 AM, said:

I just posted this in another thread, so I might as well copy it here too. It applies.

Spoiler

Just having a look at the numbers, we can divide the factions into 3 population categories: small, medium and large.

Small:

• Liao
  
  • -11 planets, 1 war. One war against a large faction.
• Rasalhague
  
  • -12 planets, 3 wars. One war against a large faction, two wars against medium factions (both with IS help and clan interference).
• Smoke Jaguar
  
  • +7 planets, 1 war. One war against a large faction (with IS interference and clan help).
• Jade Falcon
  
  • +10 planets, 1 war. One war against a large faction (with IS interference and clan help).

Medium:

• Marik
  
  • -2 planets, 2 wars. Two wars against large factions.
• Wolf
  
  • +8 planets, 1 war. One war against a small faction (with IS interference and clan help).
• Ghost Bear
  
  • +21 planets, 2 wars. One war against a small faction (with IS interference and clan help) and one against a large faction (with IS interference and clan help).

Large:

• Steiner
  
  • -16 planets, 4 wars. One war against a small faction, another against a different small faction (with IS help and clan interference). One against a medium faction. One against a large faction.
• Kurita
  
  • -29 planets, 4 wars. One war against a small faction (with IS help and clan interference). One war against a medium faction (with IS help and clan interference). Two wars against large factions.
• Davion
  
  • +24 planets, 3 wars. One war against a small faction. One war against a medium faction. One war against a large faction.

Please tell me if there are any inaccuracies in this, then tell me why you believe population alone determines who wins and who loses.

Davion should be listed as:

Very Large. It is 50% larger than either of the second and third ranked factions.

[StillRadioactive]

Abivard, on 31 December 2014 - 08:49 AM, said:

Davion should be listed as:

Very Large. It is 50% larger than either of the second and third ranked factions.

As of the last time someone figured it out... no. It's about 35% larger than Kurita, but Kurita + Marik + Liao is a much larger combination than Davion alone... and this doesn't come anywhere close to considering Liao's population boom.



Granted, this was before the clans dropped, but the vast majority of clanners were tagged as Lone Wolf, Merc or FRR before the clan invasion.

Edited by StillRadioactive, 31 December 2014 - 12:04 PM.

[Prophetic]

Our Kurita pop is actually shrinking hence the recent c-bill/loyalty boost.

The good news is we don't have to wait for a fight.

The bad is that there are so few units running around that we have little hope in covering our many border worlds.

[Abivard]

StillRadioactive, on 31 December 2014 - 12:02 PM, said:

As of the last time someone figured it out... no. It's about 35% larger than Kurita, but Kurita + Marik + Liao is a much larger combination than Davion alone... and this doesn't come anywhere close to considering Liao's population boom.



Granted, this was before the clans dropped, but the vast majority of clanners were tagged as Lone Wolf, Merc or FRR before the clan invasion.

Quibbling, 35/50% whichever, in any case Davion is much larger than the second ranked house which you List as kurita. Of course you are working off numbers from over a year ago.

If we go by the more recent indicators of pop distrubution PGI has givin us things look much more f=different.

PGI is indicating this:

Smallest to largest IS factions

Liao
FRR
Kurita
Marik
Steiner
Davion

This order is based off of the contract bonus for signing with these Factions.

Davion is indisputably the largest populated faction by a huge margin by any statistics we have.

[Davers]

StillRadioactive, on 31 December 2014 - 12:02 PM, said:

As of the last time someone figured it out... no. It's about 35% larger than Kurita, but Kurita + Marik + Liao is a much larger combination than Davion alone... and this doesn't come anywhere close to considering Liao's population boom.



Granted, this was before the clans dropped, but the vast majority of clanners were tagged as Lone Wolf, Merc or FRR before the clan invasion.

4% now considered 'much larger'. You must work in advertising.

[Wildstreak]

So that box in the upper right is Attackers / Defenders queued? Thought it was something else.