100 replies to this topic

[Abivard]

StillRadioactive, on 01 January 2015 - 02:41 PM, said:

12 attackers to 0 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 0 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour

12 attackers to 12 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 12 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 12 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 12 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 12 defenders = 6 territories (39%) ghosted per hour

12 attackers to 24 defenders = -4 territories (-26%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 24 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 24 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 24 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 24 defenders = 4 territories (26%) ghosted per hour

12 attackers to 36 defenders = -6 territories (-39%) ghosted per hour
24 attackers to 36 defenders = -4 territories (-26%) ghosted per hour
36 attackers to 36 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
48 attackers to 36 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour
60+ attackers to 36 defenders = 0 territories (0%) ghosted per hour

Holidays not withstanding, even tiny little Liao has been able to put up at least 72 players during the hours leading up to the ceasefire, thus providing them the ability to lock both their planets out of ghost drop range.

Ghost drops only exist to prevent factions from simply not defending in order to prevent losing territory. Defend your planets and it's not a problem.

Gee, another math fail.

Up to 15 matches per world are allowed to be going on at the same time.
Only one match is made at a time.
There is a slightly difference in how things go when attacking someone else's world and when defending your world, we shall focus on the simpler " Attacking enemy held planet".

60+ attackers/ 36 defenders. We will assume they are all premade 12 mans.

That 60+ is going be 8 teams of 12 for our example.

1st match queues up: 12 attackers are matched against 12 defenders with no to little prequeue wait time. Game launches them into game. 2 minutes have passed.
2nd match: Attacker team is pulled from prequeue, it is quickly matched with the D12, game launches them, 2 minutes more have passed.

total time 4 minutes.

3rd match is launched, same as above two

Total time 6 minutes, now all defenders are in game, but Attackers still has 5 -12's in preQ

4th Match, Attacking 12 in Queue, will search for D12 for 10 minutes before launching, no D found, launches.

16 minutes have passed, the first match should have been in timed combat for about 10 to 12 minutes tops at this point, unlikely to have finished.

We have a Ghost drop win!.

5th match, as above, so now it has been 28 minutes since first group was Queued, about 24 minutes on their drop clock, they should be done and the 12A has a 12D we now are essentially at step1 match one timeline for ghost drops.

So, ghost drops will occur when A outnumbers D at 4 to 3 12's or 48/36 at a rate of about 2 an hour.

What happens when you have 4 defending 12 mans and more than 5 attacking 12 mans?

1st match queues up: 12 attackers are matched against 12 defenders with no to little prequeue wait time. Game launches them into game. 2 minutes have passed.
2nd match: Attacker team is pulled from prequeue, it is quickly matched with the D12, game launches them, 2 minutes more have passed.

total time 4 minutes.

3rd match is launched, same as above two

4th match is launched, same as above two

Total time 8 minutes, now all defenders are in game, but Attackers still has more -12's in preQ


5th Match, Attacking 12 in Queue, will search for D12 for 10 minutes before launching, no D found, launches.

We have a Ghost drop win!. Ghost drop win rate= appox 2 per hour.

18 minutes have passed, the first match should have been in timed combat for about 12 to 14 minutes tops at this point, unlikely to have finished.



More attacking 12's then defenders 5 -12 mans?

Same as above but add one more live drop, time now? 20 minutes since first queue up, 1st match at 16 to 19 minute drop
mark.

At this point it becomes more common for one of the first three teams to have finished or finish before the 10 minute waiting timer . But not always, just as there will be times when drops are done much faster.

Conclusion, the point at which Ghost drops are unlikely to occur is when there are 60+ defenders in queue, However, they may still occur at up to 84A/72 defenders, after 72 they can not occur.

The rate of ghost drops per hour just under 2 at 72/60.

Edited by Abivard, 01 January 2015 - 06:27 PM.

[Driftwoood]

Another day in the life of Liao... 40 min to ceasefire, 3 units ghost dropping Warlock...

[Kjudoon]

I know since technically only 15 matches can go at any one time, I want to see the max numbers of 180 in queue showing . That way we can instantly see if ghost drops are occurring and forces can rally. Having up to 200% of the players hidden by the current system of numerical reporting.

[Alexander Steel]

Your faction only has 28 people acting in primetime for it's own planets. That's not the fault of Davion

[Gorgo7]

Who's blaming Davion? Jackaxs...

[Alexander Steel]

Gorgo7, on 01 January 2015 - 09:03 PM, said:

Who's blaming Davion? Jackaxs...

I can see why you have trouble finding people who want to fight at your side.

[Abivard]

Kjudoon, on 01 January 2015 - 08:17 PM, said:

I know since technically only 15 matches can go at any one time, I want to see the max numbers of 180 in queue showing . That way we can instantly see if ghost drops are occurring and forces can rally. Having up to 200% of the players hidden by the current system of numerical reporting.

well, at 60+/60+ the chance of a ghost drop happening is almost nil. But I do agree that I would like to see the number count display real number at all times and never simply say nn+

[Kjudoon]

If I see a faction mounting 120 players and only 72 are defending, I am going there because Iknow there is a potential for 5 ghost drops. Since maybe 2 factions can generate this level of activity on a regular nightly basis it needs some way to balance this.

[Abivard]

Kjudoon, on 01 January 2015 - 09:41 PM, said:

If I see a faction mounting 120 players and only 72 are defending, I am going there because Iknow there is a potential for 5 ghost drops. Since maybe 2 factions can generate this level of activity on a regular nightly basis it needs some way to balance this.

Actually in the case you mention above there would be zero ghost drops. However, the Attacking faction will gain ATTACK DROPs at a greater than 50/50 ratio. In other words, if there are a surplus of more than 1 or 2 12's on the attackers side, the attacker will have a much greater chance of getting attack mode and there by turning new segments red faster.

It may appear that the reason sections turn red faster is due to ghost drops but it is instead due to how the matchmaker decides attack/counterattack, and what sectors are available.

[Driftwoood]

Abivard, on 01 January 2015 - 06:23 PM, said:

Gee, another math fail. Up to 15 matches per world... blah blah blah... However, they may still occur at up to 84A/72 defenders, after 72 they can not occur. The rate of ghost drops per hour just under 2 at 72/60.

Ummm, actually you made the math fail because of one big flaw... you assume all these teams suddenly all arrive at the same moment... so one moment, there is no one at planet, and the next, there are 5 attacking and 3 defending units... while this is possible, it is highly unlikely...

So StillRadioactive's math is closer to being correct than yours... he states that 36 players is enough to lockdown a planet, and I think he's referencing numbers from Karl Berg's (?) post, the guy who programmed the MM... I don't know where this post is and can't find it... my numbers suggest you need closer to 4-5 units to lock down a planet, and that 3 are likely not enough:

Assuming an average que-to-que time of 30-34 minutes (say 1 min lobby, 1 min drop ship, 2 min load time, 24-28 min match, 2min after match score watching, mechlab stuff, etc = 30-34 min total)

With 3 units, on average, a new defending unit should be prepared to face attackers every 10 - 11.3 min... (30-34min /3)
So ghost drops can still happen...

With 4 units, on average, a new defending unit should be prepared to face attackers every 7.5 - 9.5 min... (30-34min /4)
So in theory, any attacking unit waiting for 10min to ghost drop should face defenders before this happens...

But this is the ideal situation... the times are average, and you may still get ghost drops in there... but I would expect very few ghost drops with 4 units defending... (unless my numbers are off, then maybe you need more)

Edited by Driftwoood, 01 January 2015 - 10:48 PM.

[Abivard]

Driftwoood, on 01 January 2015 - 10:47 PM, said:

confused persons words

You do not seem to understand how things work at all.
You also are conflating a single unique unit's experience in mm to the overall situation of the chance and frequency of ghost drops on a planet overall.

In a campaign for a world the initial starting phase is not the same as the ongoing phase of the campaign for that world.

It could very well be an attacking 12 man could ghost a world to any number of victories before any defenders notice and show up.
If both sides of a world pre-queue are constantly increasing in size due to new joins so that the attacker never gains a 12 man edge, ghost drops will never occur.

In an ongoing and running campaign for a world when the attacker gains an advantage in number of 12's Q'd ghost drops will occur.

At what point Ghost drops can not occur is where I have disagreed with your Sensei, he simply declares, arbitrarily for all we know as he shows no work or examples, that 36 is the correct number of defenders to lock down a planet from ghost drops.

Your sensei also states 6 is the number of Ghost attacks that can occur in an hour . That is simply not possible, maybe he rounded up to an even number and also failed to mention he did that.

I love this part of your post

Driftwoood, on 01 January 2015 - 10:47 PM, said:

So StillRadioactive's math is closer to being correct than yours... he states that 36 players is enough to lockdown a planet, and I think he's referencing numbers from Karl Berg's (?) post, the guy who programmed the MM... I don't know where this post is and can't find it... my numbers suggest you need closer to 4-5 units to lock down a planet, and that 3 are likely not enough:

Which sorta proves my assumption you never even read my post you just auto defended your sensei.

He says 3 units will ABSOLUTELY lock out ghost drops

You say you think he is wrong and 4 or 5 units are needed, but you have no clue how mm works and are unsure, but you state I am more wrong about it. (what you base this on who knows)

I said 5 teams should lock it out but the slightest possible chance does exists that a ghost drop could occur, it is IMPOSSIBLE at 6 teams for a ghost drop to ever occur.

Troll is a troll or just a silly gnome.

[StillRadioactive]

Abivard, you keep forgetting one very important thing...

Those three 12-mans can get on comms with each other and coordinate the defense to make sure that they never stack up and leave 11-minute gaps in the coverage.

36 players absolutely can lock a planet out from ghost drops. They just have to do it.

[LightTreason]

I can' tell if you guys are lying to me, or lying to yourselves. You're exploiting unresolved balancing issues. To say "We wouldnt be able to ghost drop your planet if you would just defend it" is blaming the victim, just like saying "she wouldnt have gotten ***** if she wasn't dressed like a ****." Sure, we could be more coordinated about defending/attacking, and for the record I am genuinely impressed with Davion's level of coordination and fast responses across the board. The problem I have is that you have been using that coordination in an unsportsmanlike way. Instead of using it to win battles you use your population and network to jump a planet once there is a big enough gap between Kuritas online and Davions online, which probably isn't hard to do since you have so much more people. Play fair, win some actual battles, it'll all be good. Ghost drops happen, but they don't have to happen deliberately, which is what you ******** are doing every night. Anyways, if everything is 100 percent fair, I can't wait to see you guys switch to Laio and continue to say so. I'm sure that'll happen any minute now

[StillRadioactive]

LightTreason, on 02 January 2015 - 02:47 AM, said:

I can' tell if you guys are lying to me, or lying to yourselves. You're exploiting unresolved balancing issues. To say "We wouldnt be able to ghost drop your planet if you would just defend it" is blaming the victim, just like saying "she wouldnt have gotten ***** if she wasn't dressed like a ****." Sure, we could be more coordinated about defending/attacking, and for the record I am genuinely impressed with Davion's level of coordination and fast responses across the board. The problem I have is that you have been using that coordination in an unsportsmanlike way. Instead of using it to win battles you use your population and network to jump a planet once there is a big enough gap between Kuritas online and Davions online, which probably isn't hard to do since you have so much more people. Play fair, win some actual battles, it'll all be good. Ghost drops happen, but they don't have to happen deliberately, which is what you ******** are doing every night. Anyways, if everything is 100 percent fair, I can't wait to see you guys switch to Laio and continue to say so. I'm sure that'll happen any minute now

So... you want someone who decided to be a Davion loyalist before MWO even existed to suddenly switch factions?

[Redacted]

Also, running ghost drops on undefended worlds isn't exploiting an unbalanced system... it's literally the entire reason ghost drops exist. If ghost drops didn't exist, then the best way to defend a planet would be to just not show up. Nobody would ever fight, and no planets would ever change hands... so CW just wouldn't exist. It would be "the eternal queue experience" and a pretty map to look at.

I can personally attest to the fact that nobody in Davion's command meetings says "Let's hope they don't show up." The goal behind queueing on an undefended planet is, and always has been, to hope that somebody sees us in the queue and shows up spoiling for a fight.

The game shows you where people are waiting to fight you. If you don't fight them, don't blame them for getting free wins.

Edited by John Wolf, 06 January 2015 - 07:26 AM.
Moderated drug use comments.

[LightTreason]

I'm 100 percent clean and sober, but thanks for that.

It is an unbalanced system right now. Just because the system is deliberately built this way doesn't make that untrue; ghost drops have a legitimate purpose, but right now CW is all about having more people than your enemy instead of having better players. We fight every chance we can, but Kurita have a much more challenging border than you guys. We have other enemies, namely the Clans, and we don't have the manpower to throw a bunch of 12 mans at 4-6 planets every night. Ghost drops should exist, but there should be some sort of equalizing factor that accounts for population imbalances, because the only thing you're doing better than anyone else is having more people, and that alone shouldn't be deciding matches. It's one thing to show up hoping for a fight, end up with one uncontested drop, and then have enemies start trickling in. Again, I've watched you guys do the opposite, where you deliberately showed up AFTER we all left. I don't care what high command says. You're just mentioning that to brag and posture yourself. Every player is a representative of their faction, no more or less than any other player, and the fact that I see 12-0 all the time, and drop against unit premades, shows that at least some of your units are doing this on purpose. Once again, you're blaming the victim. I don't expect loyalists to switch, but there are lots of people who play this game that are not lifers.

[Alexander Steel]

I'm sort of shocked that somebody made a **** analogy and compared it to Ghost Drops. Yeesh.. try to have some perspective on the game. Right now the tactics that the Davions are using are 100% legal and within the bounds of the game. It's like complaining in Basketball that the other teams center being 7'2" is "exploiting" the fact that you don't have a player taller then 6'6".

[Gorgo7]

Alex you're very easily shocked aren't you?
We both know that is not true.
What you are is trolling.

[Abivard]

StillRadioactive, on 02 January 2015 - 02:29 AM, said:

Abivard, you keep forgetting one very important thing...

Those three 12-mans can get on comms with each other and coordinate the defense to make sure that they never stack up and leave 11-minute gaps in the coverage.

36 players absolutely can lock a planet out from ghost drops. They just have to do it.

Explain and give examples how 3 teams can prevent ghost drops from ever occurring.

[Ridir Semii]

StillRadioactive, on 01 January 2015 - 04:01 PM, said:

Beats me. That shouldn't be happening. Maybe screenshot it and send in a bug report?

I don't think its a problem, at least 45% of my matches are "counters" (Opposite of what I q'd for) It feels more like they are meant to show us defending our previously taken territory on the world, but I digress, since I have no game experience with ghost drops n such, I will bow out of this convo now... Thanks again for helping me find that info again

[StillRadioactive]

Abivard, on 02 January 2015 - 09:00 AM, said:

Explain and give examples how 3 teams can prevent ghost drops from ever occurring.

Team A queues at 0:00 and tells teams B and C that they're dropping.

Team B queues at 9:45 and tells teams A and C that they're dropping.

Team C queues at 19:30 and tells teams A and B that they're dropping.

Team A ends their match at 26:00, queues at 29:15 and tells teams B and C that they're dropping.

Really not that difficult, especially since teamspeak puts a time stamp on text chat messages.

Edited by StillRadioactive, 02 January 2015 - 10:13 AM.