17 replies to this topic

[totgeboren]

Hi, I just want to start off by saying that CW for me has become kinda balanced (though I had a horrible start). I win some and lose some (more than I win, but still it occurs often enough that I enjoy CW).

But I was looking at the map, and especially how the border have moved since CW started. Interestingly the IS vs IS borders haven't moved all that much, which is expected because IS vs IS is balanced by default, so you would expect little movement (or with enough battles, no movement at all over the long run).

But Clan vs IS borders are moving, and they are moving fast. At this rate they will have Terra in 2-3 months.

This is especially interesting because from an FRR perspective, the queues for the planets have almost always way more IS people attacking or defending than clanners, which results in a bunch of empty drops (I have had many of them). These are of course auto-wins for IS.
Also, getting an IS vs IS battle is almost impossible, the IS vs IS planets are almost always 0/0.

If player input is on average equal on both sides, this means the clanners should be losing ground, yet they are winning, and winning by a lot?

Then the obvious solution appears, clanners have better teams playing.

But there are two problems with this solution. First of all you have to sort of assume that the IS have almost no good units, or no units that are on par with the clanner units, and you also have to assume that these clan units are so good that they both cancel out all the clanner pugs (I face maybe one 12-man clanner team per night of playing at most), and that they also cancel out the clanner inferiority in numbers.

For this to be possible, the clanner population would need to be made up of mostly good units, and very few puggers (something that my experience does not support at all).

Or, do the clanners have the advantage in CW? Two equally skilled teams, one IS one Clan, will they win 50/50 or will the clanners win more?

If they would win 50/50, how can the clan borders move into IS space at such a furious rate?

I didn't want to do a "Nerf clanners!" thread because we have had plenty of them, but the map is the scoreboard, and I can't think of a good explanation for clanners winning so much other than that they have better mechs on average, ton-for-ton.

Or do anyone have a better explanation?

Edited by totgeboren, 28 December 2014 - 03:01 PM.

[Alexander Steel]

totgeboren, on 28 December 2014 - 03:00 PM, said:

But I was looking at the map, and especially how the border have moved since CW started. Interestingly the IS vs IS borders haven't moved all that much, which is expected because IS vs IS is balanced by default, so you would expect little movement (or with enough battles, no movement at all over the long run).

Um.. House Davion has taken the most planets of anybody in the game.

So yeah,the rest of your argument makes no sense considering the foundational "facts" you built it on are completely flawed.

Edited by Alexander Steel, 28 December 2014 - 03:06 PM.

[ztac]

It's more an indication of faction population at the switchover time maybe ? nothing more I would imagine.Or maybe a combo of pop and skill level?

[Oderint dum Metuant]

Your two border neighbors in the clans both have very high population, GB has some good units to go with that.

The free win system works both ways, and it would be interesting to see the effect if it were "fixed" in some way.

[totgeboren]

Alexander Steel, on 28 December 2014 - 03:06 PM, said:

Um.. House Davion has taken the most planets of anybody in the game.

So yeah,the rest of your argument makes no sense considering the foundational "facts" you built it on are completely flawed.

Hmmm.... but have you looked at the timelaps pics? Linky.

They have taken a bunch of planets from Liao, but lost a bunch to Marik. That's what I meant by "you would expect little movement (or with enough battles, no movement at all over the long run)" when talking of IS vs IS battles. Or in this case, the low pop of Liao means they should be wiped out given enough time (assuming equal distribution of 12-mans and puggers and so on).

How many planets have the clanners lost to IS all in all you think?

*EDIT* got the frames mixed up for the Davion vs Marik borders. Sorry.

Edited by totgeboren, 28 December 2014 - 03:28 PM.

[ApolloKaras]

totgeboren, on 28 December 2014 - 03:19 PM, said:

Hmmm.... but have you looked at the timelaps pics? Linky.

They have taken a bunch of planets from Liao, but lost a bunch to Marik. That's what I meant by "you would expect little movement (or with enough battles, no movement at all over the long run)" when talking of IS vs IS battles. Or in this case, the low pop of Liao means they should be wiped out given enough time (assuming equal distribution of 12-mans and puggers and so on).

How many planets have the clanners lost to IS all in all you think?

are we looking at the same pic?

[StillRadioactive]

totgeboren, on 28 December 2014 - 03:19 PM, said:

Hmmm.... but have you looked at the timelaps pics? Linky.

They have taken a bunch of planets from Liao, but lost a bunch to Marik. That's what I meant by "you would expect little movement (or with enough battles, no movement at all over the long run)" when talking of IS vs IS battles. Or in this case, the low pop of Liao means they should be wiped out given enough time (assuming equal distribution of 12-mans and puggers and so on).

How many planets have the clanners lost to IS all in all you think?

You might want to watch that border more carefully. We've taken planets from Marik, and recaptured every one that we lost to them.

There is not a single planet that started FS and is now FWL.

The map motion is difficult to track though, because it's in a very dense section of the Inner Sphere. More planets around means smaller border motion for the same number of planets.

By comparison, look at Ghost Bear, have taken approximately 3/4 as many planets as us, but seen the area of their borders triple.

[totgeboren]

Lol sorry, got the frames mixed up for the Marik vs Davion border. Apologies

It seems like Davion has indeed mostly just taken planets from everyone. But they are balanced with their neighbours on the mech aspect by default, but have a big population (and some good teams too).

It still does not explain how the clanners can expand so rapidly into Steiner, FRR and Kurita space. And it does not explain why the greater IS population cannot at the very least stem the tide.

Edited by totgeboren, 28 December 2014 - 03:27 PM.

[Devil Fox]

The IS vs IS borders have changed as much as the Clan borders... the problem is that the borders are so large that you only notice movement over the longer term as Saxie has shown above where you can see the Davion expansion quite well and how the FRR borders have changed.

The problem is most IS houses have non-aggression pacts between themselves, so some borders ain't moving (Marik/Liao). The Clans however have a small territory and borders to begin, so any change in their borderlines become exaggerated because of the drastic change they induce in the overall map.

[Devil Fox]

totgeboren, on 28 December 2014 - 03:26 PM, said:

Lol sorry, got the frames mixed up for the Marik vs Davion border. Apologies

It seems like Davion has indeed mostly just taken planets from everyone. But they are balanced with their neighbours on the mech aspect by default, but have a big population (and some good teams too).

It still does not explain how the clanners can expand so rapidly into Steiner, FRR and Kurita space. And it does not explain why the greater IS population cannot at the very least stem the tide.

That's explained by the area given each planet is quite large on the map sue to the density of the planets, their spread out so when one is captured it provides a large colour area. Also remember there are 4 clans on the north of the map, 2 of which have attack routes into at least 2 IS houses. That means that a total of 6 planets per attack are up for grabs which is 35% (6 of 17 attacks) of the overall planets for the day. It means the changes in the borders up north are faster and more impact felt overall.

Edited by Apostal Sinclair, 28 December 2014 - 03:32 PM.

[totgeboren]

Apostal Sinclair, on 28 December 2014 - 03:30 PM, said:

That's explained by the area given each planet is quite large on the map sue to the density of the planets, their spread out so when one is captured it provides a large colour area. Also remember there are 4 clans on the north of the map, 2 of which have attack routes into at least 2 IS houses. That means that a total of 6 planets per attack are up for grabs which is 42% (6 of 14 attacks) of the overall planets for the day. It means the changes in the borders up north are faster and more impact felt overall.

Ok, yeah, that makes sense. But why are they winning almost all the planets they are attacking? I mean, me and my (small) unit most often fight against the Wolves, because you seldom run into big coordinated drops. Sadly this means some battles are horribly one-sided, with the clan puggers not even managing to open the gates on borealis for example.

But are you simply saying that all four of the clans are like Steiner, that they have both a big population and good units? If that were true, why do I so seldom see these groups on the battlefield, and why are there always more people in the IS queues than the clanner queues if the clanners have the numerical advantage?

Edited by totgeboren, 28 December 2014 - 03:38 PM.

[Alexander Steel]

FS +22
GB +17
JF +8
W +6
SJ +5
FWL -4
FRR -8
CC -10
LC -12
DC -24

[Davers]

totgeboren, on 28 December 2014 - 03:00 PM, said:

But I was looking at the map, and especially how the border have moved since CW started. Interestingly the IS vs IS borders haven't moved all that much, which is expected because IS vs IS is balanced by default, so you would expect little movement (or with enough battles, no movement at all over the long run).

The Draconis Combine would interpret the map differently from you I believe.

[IsaAurinkoinen]

I think that FRR´s main problem is they dont have big NA player base.

For example. we ASE and CO were able to relatively easily attack against ghost bear planets (EU timezone) and keep them 80-100% for attackers, but every night when we had to go to sleep all of our effort had been made reduntant by the morning.

I believe that clans wolf and bear and house Davion have big NA population and thats why they can take planets more easily. When they fix the cheasefire time imbalance, we can start looking this IS vs Clan balance better. Personally I think that its quite OK at the moment.

Edited by IsaAurinkoinen, 28 December 2014 - 06:21 PM.

[totgeboren]

Alexander Steel, on 28 December 2014 - 03:37 PM, said:

FS +22
GB +17
JF +8
W +6
SJ +5
FWL -4
FRR -8
CC -10
LC -12
DC -24

Thank you!

I don't know your opinion on this matter, but to me this reinforces my view. I might be wrong here, but I thought Steiner had the largest population (and a bunch of good units too), so they should take planets from their neighbours. It would be strange otherwise, even if player skill is on average equal.

But all the clans have gained planets, despite their numbers. Strange to say the least.

IsaAurinkoinen, on 28 December 2014 - 03:46 PM, said:

I think that FRR´s main problem is they dont have big NA player base.

For example. we ASE and CO were able to relatively easily attack against ghost bear planets (EU timezone) and keep them 80-100% for attackers, but every night when we had to go to sleep all of our effort had been made reduntant by the morning.

I think that clans wolf and bear and house Davion have big NA population and thats why they can take planets more easily. When they fix the cheasefire time impalance, we can look IS vs Clan balance better.

Now this is an explanation I can accept.

[The Mechromancer]

All clans (except ghost bear) are fighting only on one front as they will not fight eachother.

IS have many fronts. Even Lao has 2.

[Dark DeLaurel]

The Mechromancer, on 28 December 2014 - 05:47 PM, said:

All clans (except ghost bear) are fighting only on one front as they will not fight eachother.

IS have many fronts. Even Lao has 2.

Add to that us jumping kitties lost a good chunk of planets to Ghost Bears at the start. So just numbers alone on planets taken can not be used as a mark.

[Devil Fox]

totgeboren, on 28 December 2014 - 03:37 PM, said:

But are you simply saying that all four of the clans are like Steiner, that they have both a big population and good units? If that were true, why do I so seldom see these groups on the battlefield, and why are there always more people in the IS queues than the clanner queues if the clanners have the numerical advantage?

The problem is that the EU/SEA players mean nothing in CW unless they play in NA primetime (I'm Aussie and play over lunch in CW before ceasefire), the Clan actually have large populations and respectable unit (like -MS- that I'm in), the IS houses do have some numbers, and unit's that fight with them that are well known.

Steiner has numbers and the unit's for the clan border, but not the skills of the pugs to hold the line. Liao is undermanned on both counts and Marik is slowly going that way as unit's rotate out. Davion has population and unit numbers equivalent to any clan (particularly as unit's use CGB and Davion to rotate contracts between). FRR has population, but recent unit's have rotated contracts to Clan's boosting clan unit numbers and Kurita is being hammered, it doesn't have the population or the co-ordinated unit's anymore to hold (they are putting up a good defense and fights).

The world of CW pugging is more pug vs pug and as a 12man it's pug stomping... I might get in some smaller unit vs unit battles as pug or find a small premade as a 12man. Most pugs won't see all the unit's fighting for a faction, CGB has alot of unit's but you won't see all of them as a pug.