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Interesting Assessment: Min/max Glass Ceiling

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#41 Kamenjar

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 01:25 PM

May also keep in mind that QKD often not perceived to be a high threat, which gives you an edge in your KDR. In other words, you have higher KDR because other players were focusing on other mechs instead of you - so they got killed and you lived "to kill another mech".

Don't get me wrong though - QKD is one of my favorite mechs and and these are may (archived) 5K stats:
221/87=2.54 KDR with 1.59 W/L
However I'm aware that stats are offset by my ability to "mask" myself as an innocent noob.

Same holds for my light matches. If I live, and if it plays well for me, I'll often be in the 1/5 of the most damaging players and probably have most kills. Now does that mean that a team of light pilots can do this vs. a team of heavier mechs - heck no! Light pilots need heavy team mates to absorb damage while they do good aimed shots and kill off the enemies or wolfpack stragglers. On the side note, that's why I hate snipers. They tend to be useless to the team in that respect.

Edited by Kamenjar, 28 January 2015 - 01:30 PM.


#42 Agent 0 Fortune

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 03:17 PM

View PostDaZur, on 27 January 2015 - 09:58 PM, said:

Okay... I've got this pretty little Quickdraw -5K that I've effectively honed into the optimum non-meta mech that fits my quirky play style.
I've thus far invested 68+ hours into it and have slowly been amassing a respectable 1.20 W/L ratio and again a respectable 1.30 KDR...
Here's the thing... I think I've hit the proverbial "glass ceiling" with this particular mech, in it's existing configuration, within the constraints of my play style.
In short... no matter what I do, how I play or when i play, 1.30 +/- in either ratio is the highest I've ever been able to achieve in many-many hours of play.
What I think is happening is once I begin to eek above 1.30, my Elo begins to fit me into matches where both players as well as mechs / mech configurations represent either player skill levels and or mech designs that ultimately mitigate even my best efforts in the Quickdraw.
I.e... No matter how spectacular a pilot I am in this mech, 1.30 is the apex potential of this mech, piloted by me.
Anyone else run into this? Thoughts?... discuss. ;)


68+ hours = 500+ games (assuming 8 minute average game time)
If you currently have a 1.3 KDR and begin playing a a 2.0 KDR level, after another 30 hours you KRD would have only moved to 1.5, and once you reach 68 hours (136 total) are still only at 1.65 KRD.
So while you haven’t hit a glass ceiling, are aren’t going to see dramatic swings in your KDR or W/L.

As for KDR and W/L being good indicators of player ability, you can see where that breaks down in the above example, plus there is more to it that KDR and W/L otherwise we wouldn’t have Elo.

Personally I rarely look at my stats these days, I am far more concerned with my contribution to the team. Sometimes you can measure that in Kills and Assists, other times it is less tangible like turning back a flank attack (course in a challenge you can only measure it in Kills and Assists, because RoleWarfare).

The good news is, that if you are really concerned about stats, PGI has to periodically achieve and reset them (Y2K?), and you can make a fresh run and compare it with years past.

#43 AEgg

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 03:35 PM

I'm surprised that nobody mentioned this yet, I would think it's the most obvious response:

The longer you use a mech, the harder it is to change your overall stats with it.

If you have a 1:1 KDR for 100 matches, it's going to take more than 300 matches going 2:1 to change that to an overall KDR of 2:1 (going from 100:100 to 700:400 at that point). Obviously, bigger numbers scale faster.

So if you did poorly or even just OK for a few matches, it's going to take a very long time to change your KDR. Changing your win/loss ratio significantly will take thousands of matches for just about anyone.

#44 InspectorG

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 05:59 PM

View PostAlistair Winter, on 27 January 2015 - 11:14 PM, said:

"Meh, screw this, I'd much rather drill rocket jumping techniques in Quake."




Injuries.
I used to kickbox amateur. Im postponing rotator cuff surgery as long as i can.
Other friends of mine just get burned out on it.
I can second your observations.
High level play in about any sport becomes very mental.
In US football look at a Brady or a Manning compared to the guys just one tier below them. Mayweather or James Toney compared to the aggro brawlers they fought.
There are guys/gals out there who just think 4-5 moves ahead of you. So do you devote to that level of the game? Or stay content with your current hand?
Pretty personal choice to have to make about a passion or career.

#45 DaZur

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 08:26 PM

View PostAgent 0 Fortune, on 28 January 2015 - 03:17 PM, said:

The good news is, that if you are really concerned about stats, PGI has to periodically achieve and reset them (Y2K?), and you can make a fresh run and compare it with years past.

Understood and this is why, in my self-assessment I view myself as a "good" mech pilot... More often than not I score in the top 1/4th of the team. More often than not I'm "in-the-mix" in terms of contribution, i.e... equivalent kills and assists as the top 1/4th. etc...

That said, I die a lot.

As a previous poster contributed a higher KDR or W/L has a lot to do with mech survivability...

One look at the Quickdraw and it's easy to see it's survivability is barely above a medium in terms of armor tonnage and it's further hampered by a scale issue of roughly +8 to 10 percent.

In hindsight it's kind'a a small miracle I have the success that I do! ;)

To be clear I have no greater aspirations other than to have fun and be relatively competitive. I just though it an interesting compare / contrast that despite my proficiency in the Quickdraw, It feels like my success in it has slowed considerably and that deceleration seems to mirror the subsequent rise in my stats...





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