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Mech Balance With Science

Balance

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#21 Telmasa

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Posted 13 April 2015 - 04:40 PM

Cool stuff.

I really feel like mechs like the Dragon-1N would be higher up the list though if you were able to account for quirked DPS...which, since you can't assume what build a mech has, I can understand why 'superquirk' mechs were places as low as they were.


Also, I don't like the 5-tier system at all. I'd far rather see performance-by-tonnage, i.e.:
Locusts: 20-25 ton bracket; these are the mechs Locusts should be pretty competitive with.
Commandos: 20-30 ton bracket
Spiders: 25-35 ton bracket
Firestarters: 30-40 ton bracket
Cicadas: 35-45 ton bracket
Blackjacks: 40-50 ton bracket

etc. etc. Whether you'd include clan mechs or do a separate listing for them, I wouldn't be able to really say.

Edited by Telmasa, 13 April 2015 - 04:41 PM.


#22 Xetelian

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Posted 13 April 2015 - 05:14 PM

Excellent work! I really like the graph and I think with a little tweaking it could be a real good tool.

#23 Duke Nedo

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 01:33 AM

Thanks for the feedback, I'll try to improve the plots and take as much as possible into account.

I think the biggest single flaw so far is that some Clan mechs are underestimated a bit. It's one of the more tricky parts to get right because clan-tech affects different chassi differently... also I think that JJ is overestimated a bit as well, think I will try to reduce JJ to 0.1x, 0.25x, 0.5x and 0.75x for Assaults, Heavy, Medium and Lights respectively. If I do that I think there is room for increasing the impact of clan-tech a bit, that should put DWF and SCR in a slightly better position, without overestimating the clan mechs that can fit JJ. Another problem that is impossible to really take into account is some mechs that can equip JJ's but with their current state probably won't waste tonnage on JJs.

Also, like someone said, it's impossible to describe the mechs by a single Tier value, and that is very true. PGI started the Tiering though so it's sort of the name of the game for this experiment... therefore I tried to give + for both sniping- and brawling properties. Mechs that can only do one or the other will score worse than those that can do both, so it's more of an allrounder score.

View PostMawai, on 13 April 2015 - 12:25 PM, said:

The only comment I would have ... I hope PGI has used some sort of similar formula for determining the quirks in the first place :)

Also, it is difficult to assess whether personal bias plays a role. Unless you have extensively played every mech, criteria such as hit boxes has to be based on hear say from players who have played them ... which then becomes a question of whose opinion do you listen to ... and how you choose to weight each factor.


P.S.

Looking at some of the rankings ... I wonder how objective it is ... for example the Stalker-4N is the highest ranked Assault mech. It is very effective in CW and has quite nice large laser quirks ... but most decent Dire Wolves would beat one in a 1:1 fight (my opinion ... others may feel differently). The same goes for several other assaults ... unless they decide to run at the Stalker across an open field armed with only short range weapons.

Similarly, although the HBK-4G has been amazingly improved by quirks ... I think it is still outclassed by the Stormcrow in almost every way ... and I pilot both.

Finally, no matter how well quirked the LCT-1E might be ... and I have seen folks perform miracles in a locust ... it is still a 20 ton mech that can be one-shotted or legged by almost everything. In terms of tier ranking I don't think it can really be ranked above any firestarter, jenner or raven in terms of effectiveness as a light mech.

So ... I think one aspect that could be added to your evaluation is tonnage. I don't think you mentioned a factor based on actual tonnage ... which might go some ways to eliminating some of these oddities. (Add a factor for every 5 tons above the minumum weight of the weight class).


I am not so sure PGI has done this... at least not from the start, they based the initial quirk pass on some Tier ranking list from "competitive players" if I remember it right. That list, imo, was gernally good but had a few errors, especially ranking Thunderbolts as Tier 5, Flame as Tier 3, Cataphracts and Victors as Tier 1. Also, PGI didn't really follow their own guidelines, even though Firestarters were Tier 1, the -A and -S got really powerful quirks initially and so did some of the Stalkers.

I havn't played all mechs as you say, I have guessed the performance of some of them based on shooting them only (Trebuchets, Commandos, Urbies, and the Resistance mechs). This is a serious disclaimer so I will be happy to receive all kinds of input try to take it into account.

About Stalker vs Direwolf, I'd prefer to sit in a STK-4N in a terrain duel. I would only pick the DWF if it was a duel on a soccer-field... :) it's a very relevant point though, in some circumstances the DWF is a complete monster and in other situations it's rather helpless...

The LCT-1E was a surprise to me as well. It is a monster until it gets hit though, but maybe Lights should be rated higher for durability... these all-or-nothing mechs are hard to get right.

View PostRAM, on 13 April 2015 - 12:42 PM, said:

Very interesting. Could you do a single consolidated graph of all mechs? Thanks!


RAM
ELH


I could always mash them together, but not sure how right that would be. I didn't make any effort to align the scores between the classes, but I will defiantly see how it looks.

View PostJman5, on 13 April 2015 - 12:57 PM, said:

I think you should consider removing the "unquirked" bars from your graph. It's already rather dense with so many mechs, and the 2nd light blue bar is just making it harder for us to interpret without adding a whole lot IMO.

I would also suggest separating the images and making them bigger. There are so many mech values it can be hard to read.

Another suggestion is to label your Y axis because as others pointed out it's a little counter intuitive that lower = better. Also normally people sort their X axis from worst to best instead of best to worst. Not a big deal, but it does reinforce the confusion.


Many good suggestions, thanks!

View PostKiiyor, on 13 April 2015 - 02:02 PM, said:

Nice SCIENCE, but as it's anecdotal, I have a couple of anecdotal opinions:

DireWolf #1. Everything else #2 or lower.

There is no mech better than a StormCrow.


Yes, of course this is not real Science, I am just an old man trying to keep up with the Forums lingo. I have yet to see real science on these boards. :) It is an attempt to be systematic about my biased views though.

View PostBrizna, on 13 April 2015 - 03:01 PM, said:

I think in your effort to make it objective and scientific you left out something that matters a lot. How well the different qualities of a mech (hitboxes, quirks, hardpoints...) mix together to make a whole mech. I.e: Warhawk has in theory very nice qualities but they don't match each other well making most builds weak.

In the same way Mist Lynx has no single quality that impresses and a few that literally suck but with the quirks it makes a surprisingly decent mech.

Of course if you added that you'd be back where you started, completely subjective charts, and that's exactly where most of the interest of these charts lies in comparing a mech's true permfromance on the battlefield (subjective as it is) with its theoric performance based solely in stat. Very interesting read and I thank you very much for sahring your work. PGI would do well in looking at them very closely to see where some mechs failed.


The hardpoints etc should be taken into account, I have weighted hardpoint locality quite heavily to reflect that it doesn't matter how much hardware you're packing if you fire 50% of it into the terrain. The warhawk that you mention scored high on hardpoint capacity, but scored low on hardpoint locality and hitboxes. The Mist Lynx scored low on hardpoints, perhaps I was a bit harsh to it. The problem is that it can equip ECM, but because of hardpoints it's a real option to pick a weapons arm instead of the ECM... I did that on 2 out of 3 MLXs when I skilled them. Making the model reflect that doesn't work so I gave them a low score on hardpoints and the ECM bonus and that may not describe SPL/MPL builds not using ECM very well... a general clan-tech boost will move it slightly up in the list though.

View PostTelmasa, on 13 April 2015 - 04:40 PM, said:

Cool stuff.

I really feel like mechs like the Dragon-1N would be higher up the list though if you were able to account for quirked DPS...which, since you can't assume what build a mech has, I can understand why 'superquirk' mechs were places as low as they were.


Also, I don't like the 5-tier system at all. I'd far rather see performance-by-tonnage, i.e.:
Locusts: 20-25 ton bracket; these are the mechs Locusts should be pretty competitive with.
Commandos: 20-30 ton bracket
Spiders: 25-35 ton bracket
Firestarters: 30-40 ton bracket
Cicadas: 35-45 ton bracket
Blackjacks: 40-50 ton bracket

etc. etc. Whether you'd include clan mechs or do a separate listing for them, I wouldn't be able to really say.


Yeah, the DRG-1N ended up slightly lower than I had thought, but only slightly so. It's still a Dragon with it's main weaponry in one low slung arm that requires you to have full face time. When I played the quirked version I ended most games against competent players without that arm, trying to contribute with a single ERLL, so performance was very much all or nothing. I could do 1500 dmg and 5 kills in one game, followed by 120 dmg and a few assists in the next because someone on the other team knew their stuff... Those are tricky.

#24 Duke Nedo

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 05:47 AM

Finished another pass on the model, now it's starting to look better, trying to take as much feedback as possible into account.

Posted Image

Changes:
  • Changed JJ weighting to 0.10, 0.25, 0.50 and 0.75 for Assaults, Heavies, Mediums and Lights respectively
  • Changed ClanXL weighting from 1 to 2 for all classes
  • Gave Adders and Kitfoxes a -2 handicap because of engine cap, Mist Lynx -1. First pass had all set to -1.
Perhaps I should also say something about how things were scored and move some of that information into the OP.

Input was:
  • Hardpoint capacity (1-5): The total number of hardpoints and type. Score was given relative to class so that for example ballistic hardpoints for lights scored low, AC20 capability gave a small bonus.
  • Hardpoint locality (1-5): The distribution and position of the main weaponry hardpoints. Here high mounts and possibility for asymmetric builds would score high, main weaponry on arms would score low.
  • Armor (1-5): More or less spread even between score 5 to 1 within each weight class
  • Hitboxes (1-5): Here I tried to make this value reflect durability in terms of hitbox design as well as mech size. For example Spider, Stalker and Atlas would all score high, but for different reasons. Spider because of being generally thin and ghosty, Stalker for having a small CT and STD engine and Atlas for having very well proportioned hitboxes allowing it to roll damage really well.
  • ECM mod (flag): Self explanatory
  • JJ mod (flag): Self explanatory
  • Clan XL (flag): Self explanatory
  • Engine mod (-0.5 to -2): Being locked/restricted to a too small engine. Applied for example to Adder, Kitfox and Direwolf.
  • Off quirks (0 to 1.5): subjective estimate of how many tiers of offense quirks add to the offensive metascore. Guideline here was that heat efficiency quirks would score high, a 10% heat bonus would give 0.5 etc. Cooldown of main weaponry would score higher than range/velocity in most cases (not ERPPC for example)
  • Def quirks (0 to 1): subjective estimate of how many tiers of defensive quirks add to the defensive metascore. This would include armor, structure, agility and speed. Torso generally rated higher than arms/legs unless for a light with leg problems.
TBC

#25 Mechteric

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 06:21 AM

I think unfortunately your numbers just can't encompass the total usefulness of a mech. It seems it would need to take more data into that you likely don't have access to, like average kills/damage per unit, or per match, wins/losses maybe. Also, there's probably often just one or two different builds of a particular unit which get used more than others and could skew data related to hard point composition and positioning.

#26 Hotthedd

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 06:34 AM

This is beautiful work, Duke Nedo.

Were available module slots taken into account? Or would a possible extra module even be worth factoring in? Also, how much weight was given to ECM capability?

#27 Lily from animove

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 06:48 AM

View PostFupDup, on 13 April 2015 - 12:22 PM, said:

Locust 1E above Firestarter A, Raven 2X, and Huginn? Wat?


theory vs practice XD

#28 Mirumoto Izanami

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 07:17 AM

You know what could help this? If you could calculate the density of the hitpoints each mech has in its given sections.

What I mean is this: the Nova has more "hitpoints" than say, a Panther. But the Nova is larger, and has much more surface area than a Panther, making it easier to concentrate damage into each chunk of "hitpoints" (sections) that nova has, while the Panther has tiny hitboxes, meaning it has more "hitpoints" per surface area unit than the Nova.

The same line of thought would be why the Stalker, despite being only 5 tons larger, and not having any armor or structure buffs, is so much more durable than the Awesome or Zues, which have exorbitant amounts of surface area.

It would be a way to more or less calculate the effectiveness of a mech's hitboxes.

#29 Paigan

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 07:22 AM

View PostDuke Nedo, on 13 April 2015 - 12:10 PM, said:

[...]
These scores were combined into an offense meta score and a durability meta score, which were then combined into a Tier value. [...]


OMG!
The first one in this game to use the word "meta" correctly!
I'm excited!

Please, folks, learn from him: "meta" means above/beyond/after/abstract and not overpowered or imbalanced.


About the actual topic:
I tried something similar in the past (not in MWO, but TT and other games). Turned out it can give some rough clues about balance, but in the end it's moreless meaningless.
Still appreciate the fact that someone in here can think a little scientifically. Like!

#30 Mirumoto Izanami

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 07:23 AM

View PostDuke Nedo, on 14 April 2015 - 05:47 AM, said:

  • Engine mod (-0.5 to -2): Being locked/restricted to a too small engine. Applied for example to Adder, Kitfox and Direwolf.


I dunno if the Dire Wolf qualifies as having too small an engine. That's part and parcel as to why it can carry so many weapons, and one of the instances of the engine being perfect for what the mech was designed to do. At the very least, I hope you gave it the smallest of 'bonuses'.

#31 MechWarrior5152251

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 07:41 AM

Lol, this is not "Somewhat subjective" as you claim. This is completely subjective, with perhaps the exception of number of hard points.

#32 Almond Brown

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 08:08 AM

View PostMechWarrior5152251, on 14 April 2015 - 07:41 AM, said:

Lol, this is not "Somewhat subjective" as you claim. This is completely subjective, with perhaps the exception of number of hard points.


Well his was an "honest attempt", be it "subjective" or otherwise. I will take that over your blatant Troll post any day. ;)

Edited by Almond Brown, 14 April 2015 - 08:08 AM.


#33 CocoaJin

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 08:22 AM

What is the first graph suggesting with all those massive spikes for the Awesomes?

#34 Mirumoto Izanami

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 08:26 AM

View PostCocoaJin, on 14 April 2015 - 08:22 AM, said:

What is the first graph suggesting with all those massive spikes for the Awesomes?



That the Awesomes were way worse than they are now. Smaller is better on these graphs.

Edited by Mirumoto Izanami, 14 April 2015 - 08:26 AM.


#35 Duke Nedo

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 10:43 AM

View PostHotthedd, on 14 April 2015 - 06:34 AM, said:

This is beautiful work, Duke Nedo. Were available module slots taken into account? Or would a possible extra module even be worth factoring in? Also, how much weight was given to ECM capability?


Doh, I actually didn't think about modules at all... first I panicked when I read that, but when I think about it I reckon the impact is rather small with the currently available modules. All mastered mechs will have Radar derp, Seismic hack and cooldown for their main weapons, so the bonus module probably does not add that much in the end. 10% range or info gathering or something like that. I'll keep it in mind, it will become a real problem if they release more must-have modules for sure...

View PostMirumoto Izanami, on 14 April 2015 - 07:17 AM, said:

You know what could help this? If you could calculate the density of the hitpoints each mech has in its given sections. What I mean is this: the Nova has more "hitpoints" than say, a Panther. But the Nova is larger, and has much more surface area than a Panther, making it easier to concentrate damage into each chunk of "hitpoints" (sections) that nova has, while the Panther has tiny hitboxes, meaning it has more "hitpoints" per surface area unit than the Nova. The same line of thought would be why the Stalker, despite being only 5 tons larger, and not having any armor or structure buffs, is so much more durable than the Awesome or Zues, which have exorbitant amounts of surface area. It would be a way to more or less calculate the effectiveness of a mech's hitboxes.


Very good idea, would love to do that if I had the data easily available. If someone with more time on their hands wanna do it I support it! :)

View PostMechWarrior5152251, on 14 April 2015 - 07:41 AM, said:

Lol, this is not "Somewhat subjective" as you claim. This is completely subjective, with perhaps the exception of number of hard points.


Yeah, I'll give you that, but I also wrote that what I really try to do here is being systematic about it. I would actually love to let 10 experienced players fill out their scores and calculate an average, that would be interesting though it would mean some work.... may go for it. :)

Finished tweaking for now, will update the OP during the evening and then try something fun that I have been wanting all along. That is testing the predictive power of the model by guesstimating the Tiers of the Wave III mechs!

#36 Mirumoto Izanami

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 10:54 AM

Duke Nedo: Burktross had a post comparing surface area of two mechs. He would be the person to ask where he got that info from. I'd be willing to do the mathematicals if I can get that information.

#37 DjPush

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 11:09 AM

This is also subjective. I can do 600 to 1000 damage in a Murromets yet only manage 400 in a Timberwolf. Individuals can make "tier 3/4" mechs work for them and out perform a tier 1 mech with a loadout that suits their play style.

Nice visual representation man. Thanks for providing this info.

#38 DjPush

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 11:13 AM

For me... An Atlas is still tier 1. I have been piloting one for 2 years. I have no problem putting up high damages and kills in it.

#39 Duke Nedo

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 12:19 PM

View PostDjPush, on 14 April 2015 - 11:13 AM, said:

For me... An Atlas is still tier 1. I have been piloting one for 2 years. I have no problem putting up high damages and kills in it.


If all games were played on a tennis court I would never want to be in anything but the AS7-S... :) It ends up behind in these plots mainly because it's a bit shy on E hardpoints, and most importantly the hardpoint localization is really bad in terrain. That gives it a low offensive meta score and since for assaults offense is weighted more than defense, the over all score is not so good even though it has probably the highest defensive score of all assaults.

#40 Duke Nedo

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Posted 14 April 2015 - 01:25 PM

Final spam for now...

I feeded it the guesses of the Wave III mechs, and turned up with:

ACH-Prime
Input: Hardpoints capacity=5, hardpoints locality=4, armor=4, hitboxes=3, ecm, jj, clantech
Output: Tier 0.3
Comments: Hardpoints are excellent, locality looks very good too with 3E in the torsi, went modestly with a 3 on hitboxes and still end up with a better score than any other Light in the game.


SHC-Prime
Input: Hardpoints capacity=3, hardpoints locality=4, armor=2, hitboxes=3, ecm, jj, clantech
Output:Tier 1.5
Comment: Again, excellent hardpoint locality, could be a 5:er from the looks of concept art. Went conservative with a 4 and a 3 for capacity. If hardpoints are as good as concept or if hitboxes are above average though, this quickly turns below Tier 1.0 so there is lots of potential.

EBJ-Prime
Input: Hardpoints capacity=5, hardpoints locality=5, armor=3, hitboxes=3, clantech
Output: Tier 1.2
Comment: Again, awesome hardpoints, here I went all in with 5/5 for hardpoints, medium armor and hitboxes and end up with a Tier just behind Hellbringers. If hitboxes are above average we may have another winner.

EXE-Prime
Input: Hardpoints capacity=4, hardpoints locality=2, armor=5, hitboxes=4, clantech
Output:Tier 2.4
Comment: Hardpoints come in plenty, but limited podspace, so a 4. Locality down to 2, majority of E hardpoints in the arms and they look really low slung like the Gargoyle. Gave it 5 armor and good hitboxes assuming they will be similar to the Gargoyles. All in all an average mech, right among the Gargoyles. The 3 nipple-E's may help quite a bit, but I still think that PGI could safely ship this guy with some decent quirks.

All in all, looking forward to Wave III. If you didn't buy it already, order today! :)





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