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Napkin Math 1 - Potential Mech Variety


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#1 zencynic

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 03:19 PM

I have seen some odd posts the last few weeks regarding the perceived level of freedom in the MWO mechlab and what it means for potential mech variety in the game. How much variety is there? Will you need 10 chassis to be able to build anything you like? 20? 100?

The answer is subjective, as it often is with a deceptively simple question. How much money is enough? How many kids? When do you 'win' in a game with no definitive ending?

Here's some napkin math with some of my thoughts on the potential mech variety in MWO

Most of this info is from Dev Blog 6

Figure 17 distinct weights - 20, 25, 30 ... 100
Figure 7 Generic weapon hard point profiles
  • Mostly Energy, Ballistics or Missile (3)
  • Even split between two of the above (3)
  • Even split between all three (1)
"The number of hard points in a given location is determined on a per variant basis, and is based on the weapons included in the variant’s default loadout."


Figure Jump/No Jump. "Jump Jets in MechWarrior Online are chassis specific. If a BattleMech comes with Jump Jets, then a player can add/remove as they wish." My guess is jump capable mechs will have less hard points and/or modules

Figure Many Modules/Few Modules "The number of available slots will vary on a chassis by chassis basis" my guess is that the number of modules is going to be used as a balancing stat, based on Jump jets, Hard Points, and overall potential. I will not be using it in my calculations below, but the potential for variety exists, depending on how MWO implements Modules.

So we have (17 x 7 x 2) basic mech chassis possible given the above variations. Many more are technically possible. Major Energy, Minor Missile is different than All Energy, etc, but this should give us a starting point.

17 x 7 x 2 = 238 distinct variants. Not bad. Maybe 60 or so 'base/prime/whatever' chassis with 3 additional variants each. Some more, some less, but something like that.

Add the Clans and their clan tech, and you have another 238 distinct variants. Add quads and omnimechs and there are more still.

I think we can safely say there are at least 500 distinct variants possible. How does that measure up to TT Battletech?

Master Unit List's search function lists 2313 IS/Clan Battlemechs, built using Introductory, Standard or Advanced rules, from 20-100 tons.

500 << 2313, but some of those variants are pretty non-varied. Take a look at the Jenner JR7-D vs the JR7-K. The only difference is FerroFibrous vs Standard armor and CASE vs No CASE. These minor differences would not have qualified as variants give the above napkin math parameters.

Now for the fun part. If you "gotta catch em all", how long will that take?

SWAG on my part, but say 10 hours for the C-bill grind for enough to purchace the average mech + the cost of a garage slot. I may be way off on this.

500 variants x 10 hours each = 5000 hours playtime = 5 years at 20 hours a week.

If $80 MC is enough for 8-10 average (medium) chassis, call it $12 MC for an average chassis + garage slot. This 500 variants = $6000. Again, this is a SWAG on my part. I may be way off

Finally, we have a potentially interesting MWO playtime time to MWO MC value of 1 hour = $1.2
This last number is based on dividing one SWAG by another SWAG. Take it with several grains of salt.

Posted Image

Edited by zencynic, 01 July 2012 - 05:07 PM.


#2 Bobfrombobtown

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 03:30 PM

The random number cruncher in me, likes this. The rest of me says, "okay, and the point of this post is?"

#3 Sythiss

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 03:33 PM

I dont think you can win a game with no ending. I dont think any amount of money will be enough as new content will be created and uploaded constantly. so.. nice math but wha ?

#4 CmdrSpider

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 03:34 PM

Now that's putting some cooling fluid through the old heat sink. Congrats on the napkin math (nice term). On a real basic scale a player ought to be able to create just about any variant of any mech if he has a mech of that weight class. I base this on table top rules, because all mechs start with the same basic hard points and slots available in a particular section of of the mech (i.e. 2 slot available in a leg maximum). Certainly any item added to a mech like a Heat Sink, weapon, endo steel can also be removed freeing it up for something else. So each mech has alot of potential to be refitted to the mechwarriors liking. And keep up the good work zencynic.

Living the Victory,

CmdrSpider

Edited by CmdrSpider, 01 July 2012 - 03:35 PM.


#5 light487

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 03:41 PM

Not sure how you can even begin to calculate grind time when there is no confirmation of how much c-bills are earned each battle and for what things you get extra c-bills for.. (damaging, spotting, destroying, bonuses for coring etc) on top of battle wins and all that..

It's all just pure speculation and like Bob.. I don't see the point to it.

I'd only speculate that it is going to take hundreds, perhaps thousands of battles to get a large portion of the available mechs and variants.

#6 vangoh

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 03:42 PM

I don't think they would let you swap out endo-steel, it would be too much work Besides, changing weapons and other equipment that would be easy, such as a technician to replace.

#7 zencynic

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 03:43 PM

View PostBobfrombobtown, on 01 July 2012 - 03:30 PM, said:

The random number cruncher in me, likes this. The rest of me says, "okay, and the point of this post is?"

View PostSythiss, on 01 July 2012 - 03:33 PM, said:

so.. nice math but wha ?


Mostly, I was just sharing. I saw some posts on the mechlab/hardpoints/variants over the last few weeks that had comments like "boo hoo, sad panda, now you only need 10 chassis and you can build anything ^_^ :rolleyes: " and it got me thinking. The above summarizes my thoughts on the matter. I like order of magnitude approximations in general, and that's all we can really do right now before we see a finished (or at least launch worthy) product.
Edit -

View Postlight487, on 01 July 2012 - 03:41 PM, said:

It's all just pure speculation and like Bob.. I don't see the point to it.

I said, several times, in more than one way, that the OP was speculation
Napkin Math = math done on the back of an envelope to find a rough approximation
SWAG - Scientific Wild *** Guess

The point is I can't play MWO right now, but I can think about it.


View Postlight487, on 01 July 2012 - 03:41 PM, said:

I'd only speculate that it is going to take hundreds, perhaps thousands of battles to get a large portion of the available mechs and variants.


Now I'm confused. My SWAG is speculation, but your estimate of 1000s of battle is ... what?

Edited by zencynic, 01 July 2012 - 03:55 PM.


#8 Anixantheas

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 03:48 PM

View PostSythiss, on 01 July 2012 - 03:33 PM, said:

I dont think you can win a game with no ending.


Sad thing is that many players of other MMO's tend to have this attitude. They get to 50 first, they win.
Sadly that makes all the other math just seem to fall in line

#9 light487

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 03:48 PM

Fair enough, fair enough..

Yer.. I don't doubt for a second that it's going to be a lot more than simply getting 10 chasis and then loading them out in various ways. I mean.. you could do that.. that's what makes this game so good.. you could play with just the founders mechs (all 4 of them) and never buy another mech.. I'm not going to do that of course.. ^_^

#10 Aegic

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 03:50 PM

No napkin, not reading.

#11 Bobfrombobtown

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 04:29 PM

View PostAegic, on 01 July 2012 - 03:50 PM, said:

No napkin, not reading.


Ha, when I first read this post I was hoping for pictures of a napkin with formulas written on it.

#12 zencynic

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 05:10 PM

View PostAegic, on 01 July 2012 - 03:50 PM, said:

No napkin, not reading.


Napkin Pic added. Check.

#13 Saren21

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Posted 01 July 2012 - 05:25 PM

Thats some number crunching zencynic... are you a comtroller? or part of Comm?

#14 Aegic

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 08:53 AM

View Postzencynic, on 01 July 2012 - 05:10 PM, said:


Napkin Pic added. Check.


OMG awesome. You made my morning sir. +1 Aaaaand I read it.

#15 Schtirlitz

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 09:15 AM

Nice math B)

#16 Astaroth

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Posted 02 July 2012 - 09:59 AM

Very interesting speculation. Kind of gives a little shape to something that a lot of people have been thinking about. Folks can argue about variety being a bit limited early on, or that it will or won't take X amount of time to earn the C-Bills you need to buy another mech. Whatever. They're missing the point. The point is that this is just a SWAG - a starting point from which folks can adjust variables and come up with their own ballpark figures for the amount of variety available or how long it will take them to get every single mech variant.

The ironic thing about folks complaining about your post being speculative is this: very nearly this entire forum is speculative.





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