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The State of the Sphere Analysis


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#1 Mr Smiles

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 03:28 PM

Hello, friends, and welcome to the State of the Sphere Analysis!

I created a survey to gather as many opinions on the up-and-coming MechWarrior Online as I could. This presentation is the result of that polling, and represents the grand will and desires of the MechWarrior Online community as a whole.

This analysis will be done somewhat informally: I will start each section by describing a fictional character, Joe McWarrior, creating him in the likeness of the majority respondent, so that he will represent the community as a whole. Then, I'll point out some interesting deviations from the Joe McWarrior-norm that the survey took, and finally I'll cap each section with my insights into what the data could mean, or what flaws the data might have.

This obviously isn't a terribly formal way to set up this analysis. But my objective is to both entertain and inform those without a mind for numbers. For transparency purposes, I've included a link to the PDF of the refined data and a CSV of the raw data (note: the CSV exporter on the site I use is buggy, making the CSV almost unusable) EDIT: I've added a second PDF link. The first PDF includes some (very hard to see) bar graphs, the second one has cleaner page borders and better readability for the numbers themselves. [PDF Link] [PDF Link #2] [CSV Link]

As promised, I'll be sending this whole spiel to the developers via e-mail. Hopefully, our voices will have some major impact now that they've been distilled and focused! Maybe not in getting our ideas accepted as-is, but perhaps in influencing the development of the game.

But, without further ado, let's begin the analysis.

Demographics

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Meet Joe McWarrior. He is your typical MechWarrior Online player. He is a 30 year-old male working a stable job in the United States. His primary language is English, and he has been enjoying MechWarrior since 1995, when MechWarrior 2: 31st Century Combat was published, though his favorite game is MechWarrior 4: Mercenaries. While he's not familiar with the MechWarrior RPG, nor the MechAssault Xbox game, he's dabbled in the novels, the MechWarrior and MechCommander games, and even played the BattleTech tabletop game.

His favorite gaming genres are roleplaying games, strategy games and simulations. He still really likes action, adventure, and action-adventure though. Really, he could only be said to hate the sports games genre.

In terms of the BattleTech universe itself, he's a huge fan. His favorite Inner Sphere nation is the Federated Suns. For the Clans, he likes Clan Wolf well enough, but couldn't be pressed to decide on a favorite Clan. The same with any mercenary companies, though Wolf's Dragoons the Gray Death Legion and the Eridani Light Horse are close followers.

He filled out this survey by following the link on the MechWarrior Online forums. Overall, he was satisfied with the thoroughness of the survey, and though he was satisfied with the length and clarity of it, he had a few points of concern in those areas.


MechWarrior seems to appeal to a huge swath of age groups, with responses from age 14 to 60, though most were between 21 and 38. MechWarrior also seems to reach across the globe, with significant responses in Russia, all across northern Europe, and some in South Africa, Australia, Malaysia and Singapore, though of course most of it was concentrated in The United States, Canada, and the U.K.

Obviously, English was the most common primary language (both due to where people are from and the survey itself being in English), but we did have a significant number of native German, Russian, Finnish and Polish speakers responding to the survey. Note that the Finnish quantities are only assumed: before Finnish was added as an official response on the survey, we had a large number of people respond "Other" from regions of the world where Finnish is the primary language.

Most people came from the MechWarrior Online forums, but a solid 7-8% came each from the MekTek forum, the BattleTech forum, the Living Legends forum, and just from friends being redirected here. The GameFAQ forum provided only 2% of the respondents.

The demographics data was fairly useful. It shows a need for the developers to seek out German, Russian, Polish and Finnish localization (assuming they go for the Russian market, which is so hard to penetrate that when Valve did it successfully with Steam, it was actually newsworthy). It also demonstrates that most MechWarrior Online players on the forums are above drinking age, which might help relax the profanity filter (though, as the official face of the company, PGI obviously can't make it too lax around here).

Unfortunately, as mentioned earlier, these statistics are skewed by the survey being in English only. Perhaps next time, I should seek out some people who speak foreign languages and ask them to assist me in creating translations into common foreign languages, especially German and Russian. It would still skew the survey towards those three languages, but biased three ways is better than biased one.

The survey also had a bit of bias since it only appealed to die-hard MechWarrior fans, and only ones who are registered on those forums, computer savvy, and so on. The number of forums accessed, as well as the number of friends redirected to this survey, help offset these problems, though not by enough to make the results as unbiased as they could hopefully have been.

Hardware and Software

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Joe McWarrior has a pretty good computer for playing his games on, and he's definitely computer-savvy enough to know--or at least find out on short notice--all of its specifications:
  • Processor: Intel 2.8 Ghz
  • Processor Main Features: 64 bit Quad-Core Processor
  • Memory: 4 GB
  • Hard Drive: 1+ TB (400 GB free)
  • Graphics: NVIDIA card with DirectX 11 support
  • Audio Configuration: 2.1 or Headphones
  • Monitor Resolution: 1680x1050
  • Ethernet Speed: ~4,500 Kbps
  • Peripherals: Joystick, Keyboard, Mouse, Microphone
Joe also really wants to see MechWarrior Online available through Steam's Free to Play store, or through a service created exclusively for PGI. He's rather indifferent about it being available through other sources, though he's somewhat uncomfortable with the idea of MWO being available through Games for Windows - Live, the Microsoft Store or EA's Origin service.





Computers are probably the most diverse aspect of the survey. While the results above were the most typical, everything from 512 MB of RAM to 3.7 Ghz Eight-Core Processors were showing up. The only really strong results were that Intel was most common chip, almost everyone either has 2 cores or 4, almost everyone has an NVIDIA card which supports DirectX 11, almost everyone has over 1 TB of hard drive space, and almost everyone has a 64-bit operating system. Everything else, from sound to RAM to peripherals and monitor resolutions, were very widely spread.

Also notable, almost exactly 50% of all respondents have a joystick, while the rest do not. Possibly this might change over time as people buy joysticks specifically for MechWarrior Online (I know I am), but for now it's an even split with only a 1% lead in favor of having a joystick.

Probably the most interesting piece of information to be gathered from the hardware survey is that when you compare the hardware statistics to the Steam hardware survey or other hardware surveys, people who took this survey generally have a much more powerful computer, with many more cores and more 64-bit operating systems and so on.

This is important, because PGI has to make a few choices in its game design. That is, most games are designed with one 'standard' computer in mind, with all other options as after-thoughts. This standard computer is typically a single-core CPU, 32-bit OS; dual-core support is exceptional, and 64-bit support is so unusual (and typically buggy) that most people don't even bother looking for it even when their computer supports it. But 75% of the respondents use a 64-bit computer, and 91% use multi-core computers, with most of those cores being quad-core: it would be possible for PGI to focus their MechWarrior Online design around 64-bit multi-core computers, with lesser computers only as a secondary effort for marketability sake.

This is actually very probable, considering they're using CryENGINE 3 technology: that technology is designed around making top-of-the-line computers shine, leaving older computers in the dust. Hopefully, they take those numbers to heart and really make those 64-bit, quad-core computers worth the money.

It's amusing to me to see how much hate exists toward GFWL and Origin--statistically significant hate. Not unexpected, and I agree, but still amusing ;)

Oh, and for the sake of curiosity, I looked up how much a computer equivalent to Joe's would cost: minus the monitor and speakers, you can get a pre-built computer which very closely matches those specifications for $400: http://www.newegg.co...N82E16883227368. Man, have decent computers gotten cheap.

Business Practices

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Joe McWarrior has plenty of money to spend on his games, holding a stable job and having invested the better part of $1,000 into his computer. So he thinks he has a few good opinions on PGI's money-making decisions with MechWarrior Online.

First, has no problem with the game having an in-game store: personally, he's willing to lay down up to $20 per month on the game, if it's good enough, though probably he'll stick to around $10 per month, if he pays anything at all. He'd also be fine with laying down a one-time fee for purchasing the game box, if PGI went with retail distribution. He can't quite decide, however, if he prefers to directly purchase content using his payment method, or whether he would rather purchase a special in-game currency using his payment method and then use that currency to get content. If the game went onto Steam, this special in-game currency would probably be the Steam Wallet.

He's mostly indifferent about subscriptions, DLC, and advertisements, with two exceptions: he has fairly strong beliefs that the game should not use in-game advertisements, only menu and loading screen advertisements (if any), and he does not want there to be percentage cuts from in-game player-to-player trading.

Generally speaking, he felt that real money should only get you cosmetic features, like 'Mech paint jobs or voice files or cockpit customization, with the exception being increased 'Mech garage capacity, which he felt should also be available for real money.

He felt that the in-game currency you get for completing contracts should get you all of those things, plus access to new 'Mechs and 'Mech variants, new technology, mercenary group formation, and especially 'Mech repairs and deployment costs.

He felt that one of his preferred methods of distributing content was something similar to the Team Fortress 2 drop system: just by playing the game, you'll slowly gain access to new content for free, even if you're not very good and aren't laying money on the table. And he would want some "get content as you play" scheme to include all cosmetic options as well as gameplay options.

Pilot XP, he felt, should be the only thing to increase your pilot's skill levels, though he was fairly adamant that your pilot's skills should not have a dramatic impact on your victory chance. In fact, he strongly believes that pilot skill improvements should only make you more specialized as a pilot, with no (or very minor) blanket-improvements to your ability to win fights. Pilot XP might also be used to increase your military rank, if such a thing makes it into the game, though he feels there should be some mercenary unit oversight to decide whether you should have a high rank or not.

Finally, he has strong beliefs that nothing should obstruct him from user-generated content (if any exists; he debated whether it should or not), map types, mission types, or Clan membership: those are things that anyone should have instant access to, just by installing the game. For that matter, while he wouldn't mind paying for mercenary group formation or voice files with real or in-game currency, he prefers those to be free for all. He doesn't believe other forms of aesthetic customization should be available instantly for free to all, but voice files and mercenary groups he does.


For anyone who's payed attention to the storm that happened when PGI announced that MechWarrior Online was going to be free-to-play, some of the results in this section of the survey might be surprising. The summary of it is, only a very tiny minority (10%) of players would be mad if MWO used an in-game store. In fact, the majority of people would be fine with MWO getting money any way they can, except through in-game advertisements or cuts from player-to-player trading. The general population prefers one-time box purchases, in-game stores and the donation model, but more people would be fine with than upset with almost any other income model.

The quantity of money people are willing to spend on MWO varies greatly. The plurality of people settled on $10 per month, though plenty of people said $5 per month or even $15 or $20 per month. Only a tiny percent--9%--said they would be unwilling to pay any money at all.

The table discussing what content should be available for what method is a bit tangled, but generally people want things to be available through currencies which make sense: salvage through salvage, in-game payments through in-game currency, and stuff that doesn't make any sense to block off arbitrarily should be available for free. The exception is, as mentioned, cosmetic stuff, which people are fine with paying real money for.

This section provided a lot of insight into the community--and I feel it's valuable knowledge that the massive amounts of rage over the free-to-play model are coming from 10% of the population--but unfortunately, the business model presented here just wouldn't work :o There is no particular item that the general public felt they should have to pay for--everything should be available through some other means. Which is a great ideal, but I look at League of Legends and I see a game which is profitable only because the major profit-earners--cosmetics and "early" access to new champions--are available only through real money.

Thankfully, even though the community wants to have a lot of stuff for free, the cosmetic items all received a plurality of votes saying people would be fine if they cost real money--so, at least people won't be upset when PGI inevitably does have to charge money for something :lol:.

Gameplay

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If you sat Joe McWarrior down and asked him which MechWarrior game he wanted MechWarrior Online to be most like, he probably wouldn't be able to decide. He loved MechWarrior 2: Mercenaries and MechWarrior 3 equally, and he also greatly enjoyed MechWarrior 4: Mercenaries. Joe might grumble, and debate about it, weigh his favorite features and try to remember which game gave him the greatest amount of joy--and they're all close. And in the end, his decision would be that the game he wants MechWarrior Online to be most like is, simply, BattleTech.

And not just BattleTech the war game between two randomly generated sides. Oh no. Joe wants MechWarrior Online to master the four areas that make BattleTech the game and universe he loves it to be:

First, the roleplaying aspect. He has absolutely no problem with each account having its own pilot with levels. He looks forward to it. He doesn't want higher-level accounts to be better than lower-level ones, only more specialized, and he only wants the account skill to have the smallest impact on his victory chance, but he does like the idea of developing this unique specialist character to call his own. He likes the idea of being a part of a greater mercenary group, or starting his own, gaining rank, giving tactical orders to his fellow Mechwarriors... he doesn't want MechWarrior Online to be a roleplaying-game, and never wants his "character's" abilities to ever overcome his abilities as a pilot, but he does look forward to it having roleplaying-game aspects which flavor the gameplay.

Second, the tactical aspect. He wants the game to feel like BattleTech, and if you ask him about a feature which is in the tabletop version of the game, his answer will either be "yes" or "yes, but it should be adjusted to meet the real-time format." Indirect fire, difficulty aiming at specific body sections, Clan 'Mechs being way overpowered. He wants Company/Trinary-level engagements (12-15 players per team), he doesn't want 'Mechs to respawn, he wants friendly fire and ammunition explosions and detailed damage models... Joe McWarrior does not want a MechWarrior game, he wants a MechWarrior-inspired BattleTech video game.

Third, the strategic aspect. If you were to ask Joe whether he preferred salvage, repair fees, black markets, part requisitions, in-game economies, and possibly being forced to walk onto the battlefield with a partially-damaged 'Mech, he would answer yes. If you were to ask Joe whether he preferred a MechLab more like MechWarrior 3, with absolutely no restrictions on what you could modify, or more like BattleTech, with extremely detailed (and sometimes insurmountable) restrictions, he would give you a funny look and say "BattleTech". If you were to ask Joe whether he wants his enemy combatants to be a) based on the standard video game "select server" model, b ) some sort of team-matchmaking model, or c) based on physically where his mercenaries are located in the Inner Sphere and who has been hired to assault his planet, or vice versa, he would say "C, C, C, and C." And he doesn't want any of this silly business about 'access to all 'Mech varieties' or 'unlimited 'Mech storage.' Nope. He wants to have a small garage of the few 'Mechs he's been collecting, modifying, and lovingly piloting. He wants to load up the game and go to his 'Mech garage each day and see all the 'Mechs he's bought or salvaged over the years, pick one, and go pilot it into battle, or give it a tear-filled goodbye as he sells it to the market for C-bills.

Fourth, the Inner Sphere-sized war aspect. Joe wants to influence the battle lines in the Inner Sphere. He wants the chance of successfully keeping the Clans off the planet he's defending--he wants his victories or failures to matter in the long run of whether or not the Draconis Combine takes a planet from the Federated Suns. He doesn't want to see himself doing some glorious victory, only to have his planet get conquered because the timeline says so.

Joe's willing to acknowledge that not all of his requests are reasonable, but he is definitely of the opinion that PGI should attempt to make BattleTech in real-time, and then try to fix it, rather than make a MechWarrior game, and then try to make it more like BattleTech.


So... yeah. Pretty much, the majority of respondents think making MechWarrior Online as much like the tabletop game as possible is a great idea. Some people disagree, but they're the minority. Let us move on to more detailed information.

PGI has announced that the typical game will be about 20 minutes long. The community has said they would prefer it be 15-30 minutes, closer to 25 minutes. They've also said that it should take about 5 to 10 minutes minutes to walk all the way from one corner of a map to another, with an average of 7-1/2 minutes.

I loaded up HeavyMetal Pro, told it to show me all Inner Sphere 'Mechs created before 3050, and averaged out their speed to 5 MP, or 54 km/h walking, 86.4 km/h running. Since the majority of players also asked for a separate running and walking mode, I'll assume they want me to calculate that 7-1/2 minutes at a cruising speed of 54 km/h. That's a 6.75-kilometer distance, or, players want each map to be about 4.75 km on a side, with 22 square kilometers of map area.

These maps, as it turns out, players are far more interested in there being a lot of them, with a wide variety of locations and mission types, then the maps being either a) easy for the community to produce or b ) having high levels of detail. That's not to say they shouldn't have high levels of detail, or they shouldn't be possible for the community to create--just that the community would prioritize a dozen medium-detail maps over two high-detail maps.

Most respondents typically want 12-15 players per team, 96% of all players want multiple simultaneous objectives on a map, while 94% of players want multiple staged objectives on a map. When you combine these two facts with the fact that most players want there to be military ranks in the game, it would appear that the typical image of a battlefield is of three Lances or Stars--a full Company or Trinary--working together to accomplish one large goal, by having each Lance or Star split up to different map sections to accomplish smaller goals. This might or might not be the case, but it seems to be what the survey indicates.

However, at the same time, a later survey question received an astounding 74% of all respondents saying that the Clans should have smaller teams to account for their much more powerful 'Mechs. Another survey question says that if an Inner Sphere team faces off against a Clan team of equal weight class, the Inner Sphere team should have to have two Lances for one Clan Star in order to have a chance of victory. This might suggest that Clan forces--perhaps due to zellbrigen--will deploy with significantly smaller teams, just one Star to an Inner Sphere Company, to make it a fair fight.

There was, however, a significant amount of interest in alternate team sizes--single-Lance maps, and maps which allow for an entire Battalion or Cluster to maneuver. PGI might consider adding a few of these map types to account for larger-scale engagements. The thought of there being upward of 100 'Mechs fighting it out on a massive battlefield would certainly be an epic step away from the standard 8v8 or 12v12 model of most modern shooting games, that some console games are already stepping away from slowly.

However, I must point out that there are a significant number of people--around 85% of respondents--who like the idea of, in addition to any map-based warfare, there being a matchmaking system, custom games, and even a Solaris VII game-mode. The map-based warfare was just so significant because it earned 98% of all respondents.

No system of player-skill judging (for matchmaking purposes) had any real majority. Kill-death ratio was vetoed by the community, and win-loss ratio was almost as unpopular, but everything else sits at a steady 70% approval rating--some arbitrary "point" system earned in games, an Elo system, or account XP. However, since an Elo system would be very similar to whatever system is used to determine "points", and so would XP, that generally seems to indicate that if there was a matchmaking ranking system, it should be something nebulously similar to an Elo rating.

The majority of players don't mind if the game earns a T for Teen ESRB rating: "Titles in this category may contain violence, suggestive themes, crude humor, minimal blood, simulated gambling, and/or infrequent use of strong language." There was a strong body of people voting for M. Considering that only 2% of the respondents indicated they are too young to play an M-rated game (though of course they can still buy it if they want), PGI probably has free reign over how much depravity they want to add. However, considering MechWarrior's nature, it probably won't achieve more than a T, since getting blood and *** into a game about giant machines is actually rather hard.

When asked about a Solaris VII game mode, most players prioritized the ability to hold tournaments first, followed by a variety of arena locations, the ability to have player rankings, and then in-game prizes for victory and different types of missions (presumably other than "deathmatch") were at the bottom of the priority list.

When asked about 'Mech respawning, the players emphatically said that they don't want 'Mechs to respawn. If they have to respawn, if PGI can think of no better way, they want it to be an average of 30 seconds between death and respawn to properly punish the failure.

However, in spite of the enthusiasm for salvage, most players (89%) agreed: the 'Mech shouldn't be removed from your account, no matter how badly it was wrecked in-combat. Possibly this is due to the fact they may have payed real money for the 'Mech, but the worst thing people wanted to happen when their 'Mech is destroyed is having to pay repair fees or for replacing broken parts (which amount to the same thing--pay C-bills or you don't get your 'Mech back to full condition). Only 8% of all players said they didn't want any after-match consequences for having been destroyed--which is part of the reason it has become clear that the MechWarrior Online community loves the micromanagement of their 'Mechs.

There were a few big differences between the tabletop BattleTech rules and what people requested for MechWarrior Online. First, falling damage: as anyone who has played BattleTech for a long time can tell you, having your 'Mech fall over can be fantastically painful. Maybe not lethal, but definitely a bit of sulfur to the wound of whatever made you fall over to begin with. ("I can handle 20 damage to the torso and a critical hit to my engine, but please God let me succeed on my Pilot check!"). Respondents didn't want that, they want damage from falling over to be minor to moderate.

The respondents also didn't want leg-based death. I can practically see the signs being scrawled out on poster-board now and people taking to the streets: "NO MORE LEGGING!". In all seriousness, 98% of people agree that severe leg damage should create a limp, and 69% of people agree there should be a chance of the leg blowing off (this actually conflicts with a later question which only 6% of people say a leg should not be able to be blown off). People were evenly split whether a severely damaged--but not blown off--leg should cause you to trip and fall. All of which actually corresponds to the BattleTech game, since severe damage to the leg or hips causes a chance of falling over, a chance of having the leg get blown off, but a limp being created is 100% assured.

Once a leg has been blown off, only 2% of people say the 'Mech should get destroyed. Only 16% agree that the BattleTech rule of the 'Mech getting up and hopping around on one leg should be possible--and I agree, personally, it'd look silly and make no physical sense. 78% of people say that the 'Mech should be able to fire while in its prone position, and 46% of people say that it should be able to crawl while doing so. This last option, letting the 'Mech crawl and fire, is the plurality and almost a majority--and it also corresponds roughly to the BattleTech game in spirit, if not in description: in BattleTech, if you lose your leg, you are still in the game and can hop around on one foot extremely slowly while firing your weapon. In MechWarrior Online, under this 46% option, you would crawl around extremely slowly while firing your weapon. An interesting take on the legging issue that hasn't been attempted before in a MechWarrior game, as far as I know.

Respondents also wanted player skill to assist with critical hits. That is, if you at the joystick and your computer are skilled enough, you can pull off some pretty nice shots at joints and weapons and heads and engines and whatnot. In BattleTech, that's purely random unless armor has been stripped away, and then it's still mostly random. Players were almost evenly split whether or not account skill level should modify critical hit chance, and mostly agreed that doing what Team Fortress 2 does, making critical hits more or less likely depending on the game pacing, is unwanted.

In terms of game pacing itself, players want there to be a long period of low-intense combat or no combat at all, followed by one or a couple massive battles. In other words, players want the single-player experiences from previous MechWarrior games, where you have lots of time to maneuver and think before the enemy closes in to weapon's range. There were two similar options amongst many other options--low-intensity combat followed by high-intensity combat, or no combat/all recon followed by one single huge battle--and those were, by far, the ones the community wanted.

Finally, the last big topic I'll cover about gameplay, just because it's a hot topic with the community: aiming, how does that work? Okay. So. The entire community agreed that each weapon should have a limited range--whether or not this limited range is due to damage dropoff, extreme cone spread or simply the awkward state of previous MechWarriors where the laser/bullet/missile simply vanished after its cutoff point, is unclear. However, the majority of the community agreed: no pinpoint accuracy. Weapons need random spread. These two facets might be combined, allowing weapons to reach across the entire battlefield--but with such a high rate of spread after a while that it becomes impossible to actually hit anything.

People demanded floating reticules. They demanded each weapon be slightly decentered depending on where it was on the body. They demanded each particle--even if it's traveling at sonic speeds--have a travel time. They also demanded that all weapons have visible tracers or beams.

People demanded that long-range missiles arc straight up into the air and rain down on their target, and that you can use this combined with recon to do indirect fire. They demanded these missiles continue to track their target, even if the target dodges--they demanded each missile be tracked on its own, rather than in clumps like in previous MechWarriors. They demanded that long-range missiles fail to arm at close ranges, dealing no or extremely little damage. They demanded that multiple body parts be struck (individually tracked missiles after all), and that at the very least the target receives an "incoming missiles" beep or warning.

And aiming should be worsened by heat, as in extreme heat makes your shots fire wide. Though, people seem to want (not as much as other features, but still) a coolant flushing button.

I'm honestly surprised by the amount of support for BattleTech features that I got in this survey. Even though only a slight majority of people have actually played BattleTech, almost everyone wants the features in BattleTech to make it into their MechWarrior Online. I expected the MechLab requests to be bloated with non-canon features--they weren't, people want reasonable, canon restrictions. I expected people to want respawning, and no post-battle 'Mech damage. They don't, they want no respawning and they want to have to pay to repair their 'Mech (with in-game currency, obviously). Honestly? I was bracing myself to have to play a MechWarrior game which caters to a community of people who like different things than I do. I'm just very pleased that most of the responses I saw were the same ones I would've picked.

And I'll bet that PGI is relieved, too. They've repeatedly made it clear that they want to make the game borrow from the tabletop as much as possible, except where required to make it work for video games. That's exactly what the community wants, too.

Dear God, is it possible... that PGI is really as passionate about the franchise as we are? And that, they're not just corporate jerks looking to cash in on this franchise, but actually fans of the franchise too?

'Mechs

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Joe McWarrior, like any good MechWarrior fan, has his favorite 'Mechs, and his least favorite 'Mechs. He also has some fairly strong preferences as to how the folks at PGI treat his favorite 'Mechs when adding them to the game.

First, Joe does not want any 'Mech to have its model modified just to make up for its odd body proportions. Just because the Mad Cat has a huge cockpit doesn't mean it should be remade in some artist's own re-imagining.

There is an exception to this though: the Unseen 'Mechs. Joe wants to see his favorite Unseen 'Mechs in the game so badly that he would actually prefer they get a complete redesign just so that they're allowed in. Obviously, less modification is preferable, but whatever it takes will make Joe happy.

Lighter 'Mechs, in Joe's mind, are smaller, thinner, faster, and more maneuverable than heavy 'Mechs--and the speed of a turning 'Mech should be so dramatically lowered that an Assault 'Mech trying to turn around is basically a stationary target. This advantage should be played up, in Joe's opinion, until Light 'Mechs stand a chance against Mediums, Heavies, and even Assaults through sheer ability to reach that delicate thin sheet of armor on the back of the enemy 'Mech's torso.

He is also of the opinion that Light 'Mechs--whether it's because their engines produce less heat, or their footsteps produce less impact, or their bodies produce less magnetics, or just because they're smaller--should be much harder to detect than a larger 'Mech. The overall combination of these should make a group of Light 'Mechs a challenge for Heavy 'Mechs to take down--maybe still not a fair fight, but Joe wants to see it better than it was in previous games.

He thinks Clan 'Mechs should be universally better than Inner Sphere 'Mechs. He wants to see weapons that deal more damage, for less heat, weighing less and taking up less room, on 'Mechs which are fundamentally lighter, faster, and better-armored. He wants to see 35-ton Clan 'Mechs wiping the floor with 100-ton Inner Sphere 'Mechs (as it is possible to see in BattleTech). And therefore, logically, he wants the sight of a 100-ton Clan 'Mech to be the most mortifying experience an Inner Sphere pilot/Company can have.

He likes the idea of melee combat, and thinks all 'Mechs should retain their fists even if it doesn't make it into the game. He also thinks that 'Mechs should have separate walking and running modes--the extent of whether this preference is for aesthetics, stealth, heat, or not-tripping purposes wasn't asked by the survey.

He kind of wants to see Quadrupeds and possibly even IndustrialMechs make it into the game one day--but he could not care less about Land-Air 'Mechs, 'Mechs with cloaking technologies or FrankenMechs.

He wants to see the Clan forces equipped with Elementals, and he wants to see them as either pilotable by players or controlled by an AI--possibly balancing the team sizes back from how he wanted them before, where a Clan team will oppose a Company of 'Mechs with one Star of 'Mechs and a handful of Elementals.

Finally, while he's very interested in seeing AI infantry, vehicles, and 'Mechs make it into the game, he prioritizes a lot of other features like melee combat, sensor complexity/limits, logistics, indirect fire, and the MechLab first.


Alright. Let's do this thing, I have a lot of 'Mechs to list and only so many hours in the day.

On the Inner Sphere side, the most demanded 'Mechs by weight class were:

20 Tons
#1 Locust
#2 Wasp
#3 Stinger

25 Tons
#1 Commando (Wins by default, there were only three 25-ton 'Mechs, and the others weren't popular)

30 Tons
#1 UrbanMech (you may commence celebrating)
#2 Valkyrie
#3 Javelin

35 Tons (all of them except the Ostscout had a ton of votes, so, they all win!)
#1 Jenner
#2 Raven
#3 Panther
#4 Wolfhound
#5 Firestarter

40 Tons
#1 Assassin
#2 Clint
#3 Whitworth (really, guys?)

45 Tons
#1 Vindicator
#2 Phoenix Hawk
#3 Blackjack

50 Tons
#1 Hunchback
#2 Centurion
#3 Enforcer
#4 Trebuchet (too close a vote to not let the poor guy in!)

55 Tons
#1 Wolverine
#2 Shadow Hawk
#3 Griffin

60 Tons
#1 Dragon
#2 Rifleman
#3 Grand Dragon
#4 Quickdraw (because giving the Dragon two slots is silly)

65 Tons
#1 Catapult
#2 JagerMech
#3 Thunderbolt

70 Tons
#1 Warhammer (was there ever any doubt?)
#2 Archer
#3 Grasshopper

75 Tons
#1 Marauder
#2 Black Knight
#3 Orion

80 Tons
#1 Awesome
#1 Zeus (it was a tie!)
#2 Victor
#3 Thug

85 Tons
#1 BattleMaster
#2 Longbow
#3 Stalker

90 Tons (three-way tie! Everyone wins!)
#1 Cyclops
#1 Mauler
#1 Highlander

95 Tons
#1 Banshee (wins by default!)

100 Tons
#1 Atlas
#2 Marauder II
#3 Annihilator
#4 King Crab

And, on the Clanner side, we have (I will only be doing one 'Mech each, since there are so few varieties):

20 Tons: Fire Moth/Dasher
25 Tons: Mist Lynx/Koshi
30 Tons: Kit Fox/Uller
35 Tons: Adder/Puma
40 Tons: Viper/Dragonfly
45 Tons
#1 Shadow Cat
#2 Ice Ferret/Fenris
50 Tons: Nova/Black Hawk
55 Tons: Stormcrow/Ryoken
60 Tons: Mad Dog/Vulture
65 Tons: Hellbringer/Loki
70 Tons: Summoner/Thor
75 Tons: Timber Wolf/Mad Cat
80 Tons: Gargoyle/Man O' War
85 Tons: Warhawk/Masakari
90 Tons: Supernova
95 Tons: Executioner/Gladiator (by default! ... why does nobody design 95-ton 'Mechs?)
100 Tons: Dire Wolf/Daishi

Some of the 'Mech choices were, to me, a surprise. Really guys? The Stalker? I'd be embarrassed to pilot that. I was thinking of doing a 'least popular' list, but I found it unnecessary in practice, you can check out the PDF if you're really that curious.

As mentioned in the gameplay section, people are demanding as much of a damage model as possible. Actuators, life support, joints, heat sinks, gyros, the whole deal. Maybe some are demanded less than others, but they're all demanded.

I don't know if there's really much more to say. People have favorite 'Mechs, make their appearance change depending on their weapon loadout, full damage models, persistent damage/repairs and salvage through matches, limited 'Mech garage of 'Mechs your own personal 'Mechs... yeah. That's about it. Short section.



The Clans

Quote

Joe McWarrior isn't necessarily very fond of the Clans. He has less favor for the inclusion of their 'Mechs than others, and of all the features he thought about saying should not be included in MechWarrior Online, the Clans--or at least, the Clans controlled by players instead of AI--were at the top of the list, behind user-generated content being available.

But, there are parts of the Clans he'd like done particular ways. It's important that the Clans are roleplayed correctly, for one thing--he can't decide whether zellbrigen should be voted on by teammates/his Clan, or whether the game should automatically apply punishments for violations, but he's of the opinion that zellbrigen should be a clear part of the game. Perhaps it should be a combination of game-detected and player-approved, or vice versa.

He definitely wants the Clans to be significantly stronger than Inner Sphere 'Mechs, to the point that bringing an Assault 'Mech into a battle against the Inner Sphere is a massacre against the Sphere players. He wants there to be Elementals in the game, but he's split between whether they should be AI only or "pilotable". He wouldn't mind joining a Star of 25 Elementals and ravaging some enemy 'Mechs that way.

He wants the Inner Sphere to have strong, realistic limitations on the MechLab--and likewise, he wants the advantage of an OmniMech to truly shine, the ability to modify the 'Mech with extreme ease to suit the battle ahead.

His favorite Clan--if he had to pick one--is Clan Wolf.


I've received a large number of people saying they want the Clans to be AI only, or not in the game at all, and that they hate the Clan 'Mechs. It seems we've touched a sensitive spot in the community! Still, the majority are fine with them. I only wish I'd explored what people's feelings are on the Clans more in the survey.


User Interface

Quote

Joe McWarrior loves the idea of integrating as much of the user interface as possible into the cockpit of the 'Mech. Whether it's the radar or the ammo tracker or heat counter, he's looking forward to seeing it actually on the cockpit dashboard rather than floating over it in a HUD. Some elements, he agrees, should stay floating in his vision, perhaps his reticule or damage model. But overall, an elegant mix of HUD and actual instruments in the cockpit is desirable.

He doesn't want any sort of weird 360-degree FOV or even a wide FOV--he's fine with seeing only what's directly in front of his cockpit, with the exception that he still wants to have 360-degree vision in the form of a minimap or something located on his dash.

As said before, he wants a floating reticule to move around from target to target, not a centered crosshair.

When entering the game to begin with, Joe wants there to be a pre-game lobby, like Left 4 Dead or League of Legends or MechWarrior 4, where players can compose themselves and select their options and review the mission. He's adamant about two features making it into the lobby selection, however: first, that he cannot see the enemy team's composition, that he can only see friendly picks. Second, that all teams have a BattleValue limit: like in BattleTech, you have a limited budget of points to spend on 'Mechs for each team, with stronger 'Mechs consuming more points than weaker ones.


Not sure I have much to say here. People seem to want more of a flight simulator cockpit--one where the dials and the instruments actually mean things, and as little info as possible is splashed on your monitor. The lobby system, people want there to be a measure of fairness and mystery, with no ability to see your enemies until the game starts, and no ability minmax your 'Mechs.

How this interacts with people's 98% desire for a map-based engagement system, I have no idea.

Missions and Maps

Quote

Joe McWarrior loves him some map variety. In fact, he prioritizes map variety over map detail or the ability for people to create their own maps--he even prioritizes dynamic maps and deployment zones over most other features.

He prefers his missions to have as many objectives as possible--both staged one after another, and simultaneous objectives (preferably with other Lances of people working together!).

When it comes to map preferences, he loves Light Urban, Heavy Urban, City Ruins, Military Bases, and Spaceports the best--partially because he just prefers them, but also because he has high hopes that the game will include highly destructible terrain and buildings (like it did in the trailer!). Generally speaking, he doesn't really enjoy flat landscapes either--but, he doesn't particularly dislike any sort of landscape. He would prefer as many urban maps as possible, but is fine with other options of any other variety being included.

When it comes to mission types, his absolutely most demanded one is the Attack/Defense mode: where one team is defending something, and another team is trying to crush them. He also prefers, in this order: Team Deathmatch, Control Point, and Reconnaissance missions.

While he likes the idea of multiplayer battles, however, he's definitely looking forward to a co-op mission mode, where he and some friends can fight against AI enemies (hopefully AI vehicles, infantry, and 'Mechs!). Story missions are not particularly his cup of tea, but he's not necessarily opposed to them--he just hopes they come last out of whatever other options show up.

He does, however, like the idea of historical scenarios--missions which have nothing to do with the present war with the Clans, but are pre-configured scenarios of things from BattleTech's lore. They might also include scenarios from the Clan war that he won't otherwise get to participate in, such as the Battle of Tukayyid.

He wants there to be as many dynamic settings for maps as possible--weather is an important one, but so is the ability to deploy to different locations across the map. Hopefully even the map's layout will be dynamic. He wouldn't mind, either, if there was a mission or map editor for players to tool around with and create new scenarios, though that's not necessarily a feature he's trying to push for.


I didn't push too many questions on these topics, because they seemed pretty simple topics. Generally speaking, the sentiment of the community is: Trust the developers to do it, we don't mind a user-mapping community but we'd rather the game stood up purely on developer designs; we want dynamic maps, destructible terrain, and lots of map types, but we're not really so picky on mission types. But the mission types we do have, had better have multiple objectives and staged objectives besides "Kill the other guys". Even if it's only "Kill the other guys, so that you can destroy these three unprotected targets."


Junk Drawer
Okay, I ran out of spots to put this stuff. Let's go down the list.

People don't like the idea of pilot injuries. Some people do. Most don't. Let's leave those out.

People want heat to create ammunition explosions, decreased ability to hide from thermal sensors, dramatic lowering of movement speed, and decreased aiming ability.

All of the game modes were popular. King of the Hill, CTF, Escort, story modes... they all get left out of the previous section because they were the least popular. But most everyone wants them.

People are meh about spectating or recording replays, and they love the idea of the 'Mechs changing appearance with their loadout. If done well, an AI-controlled teammate could be not bad, people suppose...

Dragoon Ratings!

People are evenly split if the pilot should be stuck in the cockpit even after the 'Mech stops being able to act. I enjoy the thought of sitting in the cockpit, listening to gunfire, zooming in on the minimap to watch the battle that way. Nobody wants the 'Mech to disappear off the map when it dies, instead it should provide an obstacle/cover.

Coolant flushing was nearly 50/50. Unfortunately, the 'nearly' pushed it into the majority of people wanting it. Oh well. At least nobody wants third person! And people like the idea of separate running/walking modes, and insist upon friendly fire, ammo explosions, and engine explosions being a thing.

Machine guns should only have tracers sometimes, because, that's how machine guns work.

If you asked people to prioritize various aspects of a satisfying MechWarrior experience, they'd put it:

#1 Tactics
#2 The ability to team up with or against friends
#3 Realism/immersion
#4 Salvage and the need to shop for 'Mech parts
#5 Complex damage models
#6 Highly detailed control schemes
#7 Special effects
#8 Ranked play
#9 Ease of access for new players (ouch, guys, really? ^_^)
#10 The ability to command AI 'Mechs or vehicles


Closing Thoughts

Quote

Joe McWarrior, being a fictional character, has no closing thoughts. But here's your chance to say bye.

Joe McWarrior waves goodbye.


So! I was actually surprised by the amount of detail and simulationism people want in MechWarrior Online. But in my opinion, it's a good mix: they want it to be elegant, they don't prioritize complexity over fun, but they still want as much of the tabletop game as can possibly fit into an online context.

And, as always, it turns out that a lot of the extremely vocal groups on these forums are the extreme minority when it comes to what people actually want. I'm not at all surprised.

In the end, of course, it's really PGI's decision whether or not to include this feature or that in their game. But let me coin a phrase here, if you will:

PGI? If you make a MechWarrior game for the masses, you'll have a smash hit until the next big game comes around. If you make a MechWarrior game for the fans? You'll have a smash hit for life.

Hopefully, people didn't get too bored doing the survey and reading my analysis. And, I hope it's helpful to the developers! Let me know in the thread if you have comments, notice any problems, have ideas for future surveys, or whatever.

And, if you want to write your own analysis--doesn't have to be as long (or as short!) as mine, lemme know. I'll link to you when you're done, so anyone traveling to this massive hunk of text is redirected to you.

And in case you're curious, this is about 8,000 words long, or 1/12th the length of a novel. I'm going to go now, and eat breakfast, lunch, and dinner in one sitting, because I just realized I've been here for 9 hours. Ciao!

Edited by Mr. Smiles, 02 December 2011 - 10:46 AM.


#2 ManDaisy

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 03:48 PM

In game advertisements and in lobby advertisements completely opposite of each other just wanted to point this out in the from the pdf.


In-game advertisements
112 (Yes)
35%
211 (No)
65%
323
Main menu adver tisements
183 (Yes)
57%
140 (No)
43%
323
Loading-screen adver tisements
205 (Yes)
63%
118 (no)
37%
323
Game lobby adv ertisements
204 (Yes)
63%
119 (No)
37%
323

Guess really where the advertisement appear/how disruptive it is, is most important



More people disliked these distributors

Games for Windows - Liv e
29
9%
175
54%
119
37% (no)
323


Microsoft Stor e
30
9%
183
57%
110
34% (no)
323

OnLive
13
4%
239
74%
71
22% (no)
323

Origin
25
8%
181
56%
117
36% (no)
323


WildTangent
6
2%
256
79%
61
19%
323

Edited by ManDaisy, 29 November 2011 - 03:58 PM.


#3 Haeso

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 03:53 PM

It was informative, and you were clever enough to give it a sense of character and humor which will make it easier for more people to read.

Though I fear the sample size is woefully small, I look forward to seeing a similar survey in 6~ months and seeing how things change.

Oh and one random note of my own: I'd be okay with in-game advertisements somewhere like solaris. I'm picturing George Ledoux doing over the top advertisements between matches completely in-universe style. That man can make almost anything amusing.

Edited by Haeso, 29 November 2011 - 03:55 PM.


#4 ManDaisy

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 04:04 PM

I'm fine with any "hidden subliminal" in game advertisements, as long as they don't take up a stupid portion of my screen.

#5 Kyll Long

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 04:25 PM

I'd also be interested in some results of added questions regarding the strategic options and aspects people would like to see. Well presented though ;)

#6 Kudzu

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 04:31 PM

View PostHaeso, on 29 November 2011 - 03:53 PM, said:

It was informative, and you were clever enough to give it a sense of character and humor which will make it easier for more people to read.

Though I fear the sample size is woefully small, I look forward to seeing a similar survey in 6~ months and seeing how things change.

Oh and one random note of my own: I'd be okay with in-game advertisements somewhere like solaris. I'm picturing George Ledoux doing over the top advertisements between matches completely in-universe style. That man can make almost anything amusing.

I think it would work well if you had ad's on billboards on city maps.

#7 Xhaleon

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 04:33 PM

View PostMr. Smiles, on 29 November 2011 - 03:28 PM, said:

Really, he could only be said to hate the sports games genre.

In terms of the BattleTech universe itself, he's a huge fan. His favorite Inner Sphere nation is the Federated Suns. For the Clans, he likes Clan Wolf well enough, but couldn't be pressed to decide on a favorite Clan. The same with any mercenary companies, though Wolf's Dragoons the Gray Death Legion and the Eridani Light Horse are close followers.

He filled out this survey by following the link on the MechWarrior Online forums. Overall, he was satisfied with the thoroughness of the survey, and though he was satisfied with the length and clarity of it, he had a few points of concern in those areas.


You gotta be kidding me. So many people fit this exact description, and I'm part of the horde?

#8 Cattra Kell

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 04:43 PM

The real tragedy of this is that the Thorn was not a favourite mech, you people are monsters! ;)

But in all honesty that was an amazing read and gave excellent insight into the community and how it thinks. I thank you Mr. Smiles for doing this and I hope the results are truly considered by the devs (and I can't see why not).

With that being said I hope somehow Joe McWarrior is canonized inside MW:O because hes a pretty cool guy, hes over Total Bro Status and is officially Bro-esph Stalin Status.

Edited by Cattra Kell, 29 November 2011 - 04:45 PM.


#9 Belrick

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 04:47 PM

Its nice to see we have a solid battletech majority.

#10 Alistair Steiner

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 05:06 PM

View PostHaeso, on 29 November 2011 - 03:53 PM, said:

It was informative, and you were clever enough to give it a sense of character and humor which will make it easier for more people to read.

Though I fear the sample size is woefully small, I look forward to seeing a similar survey in 6~ months and seeing how things change.

Oh and one random note of my own: I'd be okay with in-game advertisements somewhere like solaris. I'm picturing George Ledoux doing over the top advertisements between matches completely in-universe style. That man can make almost anything amusing.

This.
"This is Duncan Fisher, and we have another match coming up." *pop and hiss of a cola can* "Ah, Cola-Cola, when your heat sinks aren't enough."

Could easily be done better than that. Just thinking of all the Coke commercials before movies.

View PostKudzu, on 29 November 2011 - 04:31 PM, said:

I think it would work well if you had ad's on billboards on city maps.

As long as they were destructible. Not that I disagree, but I'd love to eventually have statistics released of people who blew up certain signs for the heck of it.

#11 Mr Smiles

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 06:09 PM

View PostAlistair Steiner, on 29 November 2011 - 05:06 PM, said:

This.
"This is Duncan Fisher, and we have another match coming up." *pop and hiss of a cola can* "Ah, Cola-Cola, when your heat sinks aren't enough."

Could easily be done better than that. Just thinking of all the Coke commercials before movies.


I was thinking of something similar, originally I had two categories: fake products and real products. But I didn't want it to get confusing, so I condensed them. Still.

Basically, think of Nuka Cola from Fallout. It's a cola drink with a red label in a very iconic-looking bottle with white letters and a white swoosh underneath it. It's exactly the same product as Coca Cola, except it's slightly more radioactive/addictive, and it says "Nuka", not "Coca".

What if you went into a Solaris VII map and were advertised things like "Budsteiner" or "Capella Cola" or "The Terran Texts: Spacerim" or some silly stuff like that. That's off the top of my head, imagine those names a bit more polished ;) Anyway. By not directly naming the advertised product, they keep like 80% of the immersion in the game--but you know what? After playing Fallout, I usually want a Coca-Cola. That's good advertising, though I don't know if <current maker of Fallout of the year> gets any money from Coca-Cola or not.

I don't drink beer (mm, "Captain Morgan Kell's Spiced Rum" goes great with "Capella Cola" :o :lol: ^_^) but if I did, I bet my desire for a Budweiser would up after a few Budsteiner ads on the side of a building while fighting over <random planet name>.

That's good advertising. And you know what? If PGI can get those advertising contracts, where they post fake products on the side of buildings and get payed for it? I encourage it. Good for them. Increase your revenue! Go make a tidy profit without charging your customers a dime!

...but when decals come out to show your 'Mech's "sponsor" in Solaris VII matches? Send my account a free Captain Morgan Kell's Spiced Rum decal as payment for that idea B)

Quote

As long as they were destructible. Not that I disagree, but I'd love to eventually have statistics released of people who blew up certain signs for the heck of it.


Hehee

Edited by Mr. Smiles, 29 November 2011 - 06:09 PM.


#12 Kai Valo

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 06:29 PM

I have to applaud the effort it must have taken to organize that.
I hope 300 is a large enough sample size that we don't see major changes if/when you do it again, because I agree with most of the averages and I'd love to see them in game.

#13 Epitaph

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 07:12 PM

First of all, thank you for taking the time to do this survey! It was a great read, and simply just really useful information in general.

That said, I'm extremely pleased with the results. Good to know the rest of the community has such good taste! If PGI makes MGO reflect these kinds of ideas and opinions, I'm sure it will be a hit! Given that the community (myself included) seems to be very willing to support the game in any way they can. Mr. Smiles put it perfectly:

Quote

PGI? If you make a MechWarrior game for the masses, you'll have a smash hit until the next big game comes around. If you make a MechWarrior game for the fans? You'll have a smash hit for life.


Right now, we can only hope at what PGI's got in store, but if they put the time and effort to make a really great game then there's not much that can go wrong with this kind of fanbase. ;)

#14 KnowBuddy

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 08:06 PM

Truly awesome writeup, and I mean that in the literal sense. I'll need to devote a good chunk of time to reading it thoroughly... well I guess that's what work is for.

I chuckled at the one joker who responded that Light 'Mechs should not be faster than Assault 'Mechs. I wonder if the same person also responded that they don't have a mouse attached to their computer (maybe not, could be a different person who's a trackball nut).

#15 GI Journalist

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 08:09 PM

I found this to be fascinating reading, and I have no doubt that PGI will too. It's their opportunity to learn a lot about the fans that populate the community and what we want.

Now they just have the hard job of determining what we will pay for.

#16 Bloodycrow

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 08:17 PM

View PostMr. Smiles, on 29 November 2011 - 06:09 PM, said:

I was thinking of something similar, originally I had two categories: fake products and real products. But I didn't want it to get confusing, so I condensed them. Still.

Basically, think of Nuka Cola from Fallout. It's a cola drink with a red label in a very iconic-looking bottle with white letters and a white swoosh underneath it. It's exactly the same product as Coca Cola, except it's slightly more radioactive/addictive, and it says "Nuka", not "Coca".

What if you went into a Solaris VII map and were advertised things like "Budsteiner" or "Capella Cola" or "The Terran Texts: Spacerim" or some silly stuff like that. That's off the top of my head, imagine those names a bit more polished ;) Anyway. By not directly naming the advertised product, they keep like 80% of the immersion in the game--but you know what? After playing Fallout, I usually want a Coca-Cola. That's good advertising, though I don't know if <current maker of Fallout of the year> gets any money from Coca-Cola or not.

I don't drink beer (mm, "Captain Morgan Kell's Spiced Rum" goes great with "Capella Cola" :o :lol: ^_^) but if I did, I bet my desire for a Budweiser would up after a few Budsteiner ads on the side of a building while fighting over <random planet name>.


They actually did this in MechWarrior: Living Legends. Got George Ledoux and everything.

#17 Mr Smiles

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 08:26 PM

View PostKai Valo, on 29 November 2011 - 06:29 PM, said:

I have to applaud the effort it must have taken to organize that.
I hope 300 is a large enough sample size that we don't see major changes if/when you do it again, because I agree with most of the averages and I'd love to see them in game.


Statistics is a bit wonky and hard to understand sometimes. I'll try to explain it as best I understand it--someone with actual professional statistics knowledge, please correct me here.

Take a population of 28,000 people (the MechWarrior Online registered user count). You have a true-false question you want to ask them, but have no idea just how skewed the answers will be toward true or false. Worst case scenario, a 50% "response distribution" as it's called.

Now, there is a "true" answer out there. Suppose your yes:no question has, if you asked all 28,000 people, a ratio of let's say 60:40. You have to set a "margin of error", which means how close to the "true" answer you're willing to get: a typical margin of error is 5%. A margin of error of 5% in this example would mean that your ratio would be anywhere from 65:35 to 55:45.

Obviously, the amount of skew you have makes larger margins of error more acceptable. That is, if the true answer was 90:10, a margin of error of even 25% would still only make the answers range from 100:0 to 65:35. Still a massive majority, and if majority's all you care about, who cares if it's wrong in the specific numbers?

Then, you also have to set a "confidence level". Confidence level is how often you're willing to permit your answer to be beyond your margin of error. Suppose we had 20 questions, true answers are all 60:40, and we set the confidence level at 95%. That means that for 19 of our questions, we would get an answer between 65:35 to 55:45... and for one of those questions, we would get something even farther off, like 70:30 or 40:60.

* * * *

Now, statistics thankfully takes all of these values, and has a way to plug them into a formula to churn out a single number: how many people you have to question to get the values you input.

Of course, you're absolutely right that getting thousands of responses would be the absolute best thing. If I wanted to have only 1 in 100 questions be off my margin of error of 5%, I would only need a sample of 649 people. If I had 1,000, well, you can't get much better than 99% confidence level, so 1,000 people would get me a margin of error of 4%. Meaning, if I had a yes:no ratio of 55:45 on a question, I would be 99% sure that the yeses would still have the majority, since I'm 99% sure that the worst case scenario is the "true" answer is a 51:49 ratio.

Fortunately for me, I still have some pretty good statistics with only 300 people. That gets me a confidence level of 95%, and a margin of error of 5.63%. That's something I can live with...

...except with the really, really narrow questions. Anything with a difference of less than 5.63% between the answers I'm not sure about, and I'm only 95% confident about the rest of them.

...and that assumes that there's absolutely no skew with my answers. But look at them. Most of them are in the 60%'s, some are at 99.9%. Therefore, most of my questions, I could've gotten away with far less respondents when writing about my answers. But, I don't know enough about statistics to change my "response distribution", so I'll leave it the worst case scenario, 50%.

NOTE: Everything I just wrote is based on my best knowledge based on Google and Wikipedia and what makes sense to me. I'm an English person first, a Calculus person second, and a Statistics person like... 74th.

Edited by Mr. Smiles, 29 November 2011 - 08:31 PM.


#18 DocBach

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 10:09 PM

I have to hand it to you for the amount of time you've put into this survey. The MechWarrior community is lucky to have such dedicated fans like you.

#19 PsihoKekec

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 11:47 PM

That must have been a lot of work.

#20 Nathiel Surefire

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Posted 29 November 2011 - 11:47 PM

This is a man who deserves a medal. Even if another larger sample size survey proves some of the information he's gathered to be off by a wide margin, the amount of time and effort put into this receives a hearty "thank you" from me!





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