37 replies to this topic

[Hugh Chardon]

Are they random?

The following images were not taken from the same account....

Edited by Hugh Chardon, 20 July 2016 - 01:50 PM.

[AztecD]

damm, thats some nice cache

[cazidin]

...I can get Mechs from this?!

[AlphaToaster]

The real question is what are the odds to win each tile?

For example, Is it a true 1 in 8 chance or are there hidden weights where like the CERPPC or the 10 UAVs have a higher than 1 in 8 chance of being selected?

I got the CERPPC out of the cache I got yesterday but there was 500mc, 3 keys, or a mechbay as the higher value awards possible in mine.

[Hugh Chardon]

AlphaToaster, on 20 July 2016 - 01:49 PM, said:

The real question is what are the odds to win each tile?

For example, Is it a true 1 in 8 chance or are there hidden weights where like the CERPPC or the 10 UAVs have a higher than 1 in 8 chance of being selected?

I got the CERPPC out of the cache I got yesterday but there was 500mc, 3 keys, or a mechbay as the higher value awards possible in mine.

I'm wondering if the contents of caches are drawn from a selection of fixed sets. Are others getting identical cache contents? If so, it may be possible to construct a less noisy data set to determine the odds for the listed items.

[TLBFestus]

PGI doesn't seem to be forthcoming about the actual odds and how they work.

On thing that we as players could do is post pics of these caches in this thread and that might give us some idea of what actually is going on.

If for instance there is a mech in every cache, or a large number of them, I think it's safe to say that the relative odds of drawing a mech in a cache is NOT going to be 1 in 8. Probably something more like 1 in 500.

I haven't played for awhile but my buds are on tonight so I'm going to get them to take screenies of any caches they get and maybe we will learn something.

Edited by TLBFestus, 20 July 2016 - 02:34 PM.

[Big Tin Man]

TLBFestus, on 20 July 2016 - 01:57 PM, said:

I haven't played for awhile but my buds are on tonight so I'm going to get them to take screenies of any caches they get and maybe we will learn something.

This sounds like a job for an open google spreadsheet and massive data crowdsourcing!

[Jackal Noble]

Hugh Chardon, on 20 July 2016 - 01:33 PM, said:

Are they random?

The following images were not taken from the same account....

That is indeed odd, and slightly troubling , if in fact the two pictures are from separate accounts. Now there may still be a random draw mechanic in place for the items displayed, but the implication that these caches are preset and not randomly generated is a bit off putting.
Good thing that ever since two weeks ago the game and my laptop in general has been running like absolute shite. Haven't been able to play enough to even get one yet to see.

[Deathlike]

"It's because it's fixed you goof". -Dunno who said that, but it's spot on.

[cazidin]

Please keep in mind that while this IS exceptionally unlikely, it's still possible with RNG. I recall a fear years ago that Apple had to change their song randomization algorithim (or something to that effect) to make it feel more random, even though it originally was.

[Kalleballe]

Was watching Proton's stream today, and the two caches he got was identical.

[TLBFestus]

Wouldn't this be something if the "random" caches weren't really all that random?

Hold it,...it's PGI.....

[Tyler Valentine]

AlphaToaster, on 20 July 2016 - 01:49 PM, said:

The real question is what are the odds to win each tile?

For example, Is it a true 1 in 8 chance or are there hidden weights where like the CERPPC or the 10 UAVs have a higher than 1 in 8 chance of being selected?

I got the CERPPC out of the cache I got yesterday but there was 500mc, 3 keys, or a mechbay as the higher value awards possible in mine.

I've had two so far and won 2 LPLs and a CERPPC, missing out on the stuff I actually wanted. At the risk of sounding salty, would it surprise anyone if PGI rigged it so you rarely win the high value rewards?

[TercieI]

Tyler Valentine, on 20 July 2016 - 03:12 PM, said:

I've had two so far and won 2 LPLs and a CERPPC, missing out on the stuff I actually wanted. At the risk of sounding salty, would it surprise anyone if PGI rigged it so you rarely win the high value rewards?

They actually said that the high value stuff was low odds in the patch notes. Frankly for a 9 cent pull, I have no issue with that.

[Deathlike]

TLBFestus, on 20 July 2016 - 02:36 PM, said:

Wouldn't this be something if the "random" caches weren't really all that random?

Hold it,...it's PGI.....

Fixed drop tables are easier to code, after all.

TercieI, on 20 July 2016 - 03:18 PM, said:

They actually said that the high value stuff was low odds in the patch notes. Frankly for a 9 cent pull, I have no issue with that.

They need to list the probabilities right then and there, like the votes for map selection (assuming you voted).

[TercieI]

Deathlike, on 20 July 2016 - 03:23 PM, said:

They need to list the probabilities right then and there, like the votes for map selection (assuming you voted).

That'd be nice, but, seriously, nine cents. You can just take the 50K CB if you don't want to pay it. <shrug> I just can't get worked up about this, it's fairly benign, especially considering everything else going on lately.

[Ace Selin]

Possible the supply caches are predetermined (ie there is a set number of variants with the 8 items within allready determined) so there isnt going to be a chance of just getting great stuff, then the draw is random based on percentages of chance for each item

Edited by Ace Selin, 20 July 2016 - 03:34 PM.

[Deathlike]

TercieI, on 20 July 2016 - 03:30 PM, said:

That'd be nice, but, seriously, nine cents. You can just take the 50K CB if you don't want to pay it. <shrug> I just can't get worked up about this, it's fairly benign, especially considering everything else going on lately.

I'd rather throw a dime or two to some other game (more like $10+ worth) instead of spending my 2 cents here.

[Alex Morgaine]

Might be a small draw pool too. Maybe they are creating crates based of item seeds and only have a small number range available for making sure the system works or something

[AlphaToaster]

I can understand if the odds are lower for high value items by having a fewer number of cache have them as a possible pick, but then keeping them the same 1 in 8 chance to be selected. That would be ideal and I think would seem fair. Make it rare to even see the mech, but I think if we see the mech often, it's a carrot on an impossibly long stick.