38 replies to this topic

[Idealsuspect]

Big Tin Man, on 21 July 2016 - 12:39 PM, said:

I'll take that as a no then. It's not an equal 1 in 8 chance. Thank you Tina.

Of course it isn't ...lol.
Hope this thread is a troll against supply cache and not an innocent question.

People really think they can win 500-1000MC in supply cache every 8 times for a 25MC bet?
Do you will give me 1000 bucks every 8 time if i bet 25bucks?
Which compagny can offer 12,5 % chance to win the jackpot ?
Las vegas casinos are laughting .


Pretty sure jackpot price come out every 3% of time max ( and well i have to say a mechbay or 3 keys aren't a "jackpot" for me ).
Items prices ( 3 / 8 chance ) must come out every 66% time.

Edited by Idealsuspect, 21 July 2016 - 01:27 PM.

[-Natural Selection-]

Idealsuspect, on 21 July 2016 - 01:25 PM, said:

Of course it isn't ...lol.
Hope this thread is a troll against supply cache and not an innocent question.

People really think they can win 500-1000MC in supply cache every 8 times for a 25MC bet?
Do you will give me 1000 bucks every 8 time if i bet 25bucks?
Which compagny can offer 12,5 % chance to win the jackpot ?
Las vegas casinos are laughting .


Pretty sure jackpot price come out every 3% of time.
Items prices ( 3 / 8 chance ) must come out every 66% time.

Or maybe getting some money from players is better than none.

[Lorian Sunrider]

Mickey Knoxx, on 21 July 2016 - 01:11 PM, said:

So you are asking people to drop $ on something but will not tell them if the chances are weighted?

But the "rare item" statement seems to imply the chance of it being in a box are fewer, not a less % of winning it during the roll.

Is there a sign on slot machines telling you the odds?

At least with this you get something, even if you don't think it's worth the nine cents the key cost or whatever it is. Don't like it? Just sell it then and consider it a c-bill bonus.

Isn't TF2 like 1% for their rares?

Edited by Lorian Sunrider, 21 July 2016 - 01:41 PM.

[Big Tin Man]

Idealsuspect, on 21 July 2016 - 01:25 PM, said:

Of course it isn't ...lol.
Hope this thread is a troll against supply cache and not an innocent question.

It was not an innocent question, nor is it a troll. It told me what I wanted to know. Nothing more or less.

Also:

On any given match you have a 1/24th chance of getting a crate
IF it was a 1 in 8 chance to get the big prize from a crate (and not all crates contain a 'big' prize) you could surmise the following:

0.0416667 * 0.125 = 0.521% chance of personally winning the 'big' prize in every match. AKA: 99.479% chance of NOT winning the big prize in a given match.

Doesn't sound that different than the general payouts in an ongoing grab bag event if the odds were straight, now does it?

[Idealsuspect]

Big Tin Man, on 21 July 2016 - 01:42 PM, said:

It was not an innocent question, nor is it a troll. It told me what I wanted to know. Nothing more or less.

Also:

On any given match you have a 1/24th chance of getting a crate
IF it was a 1 in 8 chance to get the big prize from a crate (and not all crates contain a 'big' prize) you could surmise the following:

0.0416667 * 0.125 = 0.521% chance of personally winning the 'big' prize in every match. AKA: 99.479% chance of NOT winning the big prize in a given match.

Doesn't sound that different than the general payouts in an ongoing grab bag event if the odds were straight, now does it?

You dont have 1/24 chance of getting a crate every time you launch a game.
People in winning team have 1/12 chance of getting a crate it's totally different...

Difference is in your W/L ratio if you get my point

[Big Tin Man]

Idealsuspect, on 21 July 2016 - 01:57 PM, said:

You dont have 1/24 chance of getting a crate every time you launch a game.
People in winning team have 1/12 chance of getting a crate it's totally different...

Difference is in your W/L ratio if you get my point

I get your point, but from a prize payout perspective (i.e. PGI giving out prizes) the math is correct.

[SiR SockMonkeyDonkey]

Easy enough to say that at the current cost of a key, regardless how rare a cache is to obtain (bad balance expected at start), It would be a small % chance to get anything worth more then the key. I got an AMS system for the first an only cache so far out of over 50 games... and I feel I got what I paid for! lol. PGI might want to give out 3-4 caches per game so they can keep some lights on! That being said, I would think to not expect a mech or any mc to fall out anytime soon. Good thing we are here for how great a job PGI has done over the last 5 years! Still a steller game and ever growing better! Thanks PGI!

[Boulangerie]

The current cumulative challenge for the Viper leaderboard event has a key as a reward.

The 2500 cumulative match score reward (formerly a vanity item) has been replaced with 1 Supply cache key.

Elizander, on 21 July 2016 - 12:51 PM, said:

I suspect that the items in the cache are already categorized/tagged by rarity. We can go with common, uncommon and rare and each 'slot' in the cache has a designated value (common/uncommon/rare) with a set chance for each slot.

If I were to guess, your chance for the rare would probably be 1%, 9% for the uncommon and 15% for each common. All speculation, of course. :3

I have seen a screenshot in another thread with what appears to be multiple "rare" items. Well, at least that the crates have some variability between them and that they don't all follow the same formula. This implies we should be careful which we feel necessary to open. It also serves as an impetus to open that "good" cache with multiple good items in it. I haven't played since the patch, so I can't confirm/deny this firsthand however.

[DivineTomatoes]

Big Tin Man, on 21 July 2016 - 11:44 AM, said:

A supply cache shows a chance for one of eight items. Are the odds of me drawing one of the eight items 12.5%?

Please mark your answer below

[_] Yes
[_] No

Thank you.

Do you honestly think any of them are competent enough at their jobs to actually answer a question on the official forum.

No you sir must go through twitter to get hold of the ""community manager" or whatever Russ calls himself.

[KodiakGW]

Did you all check out the event this weekend? You can earn two caches!!!!

...and one key. *sigh* At least the Kodiak event allowed you to earn 100MC total. Equivalent to 4 keys.

[cazidin]

Reaver2145, on 21 July 2016 - 02:42 PM, said:

Do you honestly think any of them are competent enough at their jobs to actually answer a question on the official forum.

No you sir must go through twitter to get hold of the ""community manager" or whatever Russ calls himself.

To be fair, Tina did reply to this very thread. I can't blame them for not wishing to disclose the loot percentages, but she did indicate that it's not balanced. (I.e. You'll have less of a chance of winning that Highlander IIC than that Flamer Deluxe Package with Hot Cakes and Orange Juice.)

[ilikerice]

Tina Benoit, on 21 July 2016 - 12:20 PM, said:

Unfortunately I can't give you an answer to this as we don't share Supply Cache statistics..
Sorry!

Edit: The Patch Notes do mention however that the more valuable the item, the rarer it will be.

This still does not say if they are weighted on the roulette wheel or not, this could mean that more valuable items have a slimmer chance of actually appearing in the chest correct?

In that case if you get a worthless crate, sell it back its right here at the bottom.

For some of the higher-value items you can acquire from a Supply Cache, such as a Summoner SMN-D (including a Mech Bay to house it) or a 1000 MC pack, the value of a Supply Cache Reward can far exceed the value of the Supply Cache Key used to unlock it. The more valuable the item however, the rarer it will be!


In addition to high-value items Supply Caches will contain items on the lower end of the currency value spectrum, such as an SRM 4 or a Targeting Computer MkIV. If you have no use for those items as equipment you can choose to sell them back for C-Bills through your Inventory screen.


In the case of the SRM 4 and TC, both with a standard purchase cost of 120,000 C-Bills each, their re-sale values would be 60,000 C-Bills. With a Supply Cache Key cost of 25 MC this translates to approximately 2,400 C-Bills received per MC spent; better than the 1,375 C-Bills-per-MC value you would receive from acquiring a 1,100,000 C-Bill Pack for 800 MC!

[Pyrocolonic]

Ok, thanks Tina. That works out well. Since PGI doesn't share cache statistics I wont be buying any keys. I have found that the people most unwilling to provide information are the most interested in exploiting you.

Edited by Burma, 21 July 2016 - 11:25 PM.

[LordNothing]

i very highly doubt that the odds of winning any particular item are 1 in 8. there is a reason they dont share this info. if this was a vegas slot machine they would be required by law to put the odds on the machine. they would even have to submit to random sampling to ensure the odds indicated for machines were accurate. but i guess the f2p games industry has a loophole for this.

Edited by LordNothing, 22 July 2016 - 12:05 AM.

[Johnny Z]

Big Tin Man, on 21 July 2016 - 02:24 PM, said:

I get your point, but from a prize payout perspective (i.e. PGI giving out prizes) the math is correct.

Please don't soil these forums based on conjecture, rumour, fortune telling, astrology, slander, and poor grammar with good math.

[xengk]

I thought this sort of thing pretty common knowledge these day?

Example from Marvel Puzzle Quest.
Red = higher drop rate
* = rarity
Top number = "key" bundle

[MW Waldorf Statler]

Robocraft ...with no Premium time, you seeing in each High level Plutonium Crate ,1-2 Epic and Legendary items ,and become only the normal Loot -

With Premium Time, all tree days and many many Games , not one Epic or Legendary item in the Plutonium Loot
by Robocraft its more like a shell game

In MWO better to buy a Mech or a Mechbase..its like the Dark Age Booster Packs, many many Creep ,and very very rare Good Mechs

Edited by Old MW4 Ranger, 22 July 2016 - 09:50 PM.

[Lucian Nostra]

seriously telling you, every other game that runs this type of loot box stuff the 'good' prizes run around 1% drop rates.

Why you would think you really have a 1/8 chance of getting the mech vs the laser is daftness. just handing out mechs for cheapo keys isn't a way to make money.

[ArmandTulsen]

Tina Benoit, on 21 July 2016 - 12:20 PM, said:

Unfortunately I can't give you an answer to this as we don't share Supply Cache statistics..
Sorry!

Why? What's there to hide? It's only probabilities, not trade secrets or source code.

You don't need to be a genius or mathematically adept to realize that the odds of the rare loot items are very low. Revealing the true odds on the items simply helps us calculate our EV on every crate opened. It's safe - and probably wise - to assume that the EV is negative. All we want to know is how bad of a gamble it actually is.

If you're somewhat aware and intelligent, you'll tolerate a slightly negative EV some of the time. If you're a sucker, you'll frequently play the lottery and the slot machines.