20 replies to this topic

[Moldur]

Firstly, a definition:

Sucker

2.
informal
a gullible or easily deceived person



Stop.

Stop trying to figure out numbers, chances, etc. Stop discussing to see if they are worth it.

It is the inherent logic of loot boxes, caches, crates&keys, etc. to not be worth it in the long run. That is why they exist. They wouldn't exist if they were worth it.

Nobody in the history of people trying to sell people things ever has said "I'll give you a better bargain if you're willing to gamble."

Do you really need numbers to tell you whether or not you are a gullible idiot if you are trying to get rare rewards out of caches?

I'll save you some time. You're a sucker if you buy into caches. Yes, everyone has some initial curiosities, but beyond that? Sucker. You buy what door to door salesmen sell you, you engage telemarketers in intelligent conversation, you give money to guys selling magazines for their trip to Costa Rica, you talk to the DishTV guy standing in the middle of the store, etc.

I have seen other forum-goers trying to do some charity work, and at least try to warn other to not be idiots, but man some of you guys are really adamant on "figuring out" these caches (read: paying idiot tax*.)

*thanks whoever mentioned that term

We do not need spreadsheets. We do not need a detailed expert opinion with pie charts and formulas.

It is a gamble, and you have an exceedingly poor chance of getting anything worthwhile. Accept it. Don't say "Well, they are worth it if..."
No. They aren't. You are free to gamble, but do not try to justify it to us. You are a sucker.

The end.

Edited by Moldur, 22 July 2016 - 10:24 AM.

[Tristan Winter]

This is how I look when I open supply caches.

And also when I have a bit of private time.

[Sgt Ironballs]

I've played 4 games, won three, won a loot box 2x. First box I opened and won a Summoner D, worth about 4.5mil resale. I'll never open another, because I agree with you, and I just got plain lucky.

It actually makes me think that they probably tweaked win %s for the initial release - the opacity of the system let's them dial everything to their favor.

Edited by Sgt Ironballs, 22 July 2016 - 04:04 PM.

[1453 R]

Jeebus. Settle thine jimmies, Moldur.

Are the boxes an efficient way to get high-dollar prizes such as 'Mechs or 'Mech bays? No, of course not.

Are they, generally, going to be worth the MC to open them? Probably.

if they were provably not worth the 25MC it takes to open them - and someone will untangle the math eventually - then Piranha would be going against proven logic in every other 'Mystery Box' system ever implemented by anyone at any time.

It is in Piranha's best interests to make the 25MC you spend opening a crate some of the most efficiently-spent MC you'll ever spend, because that's the whole point of Mystery Boxes - you give up Choice of Item in exchange for Better Item Pricing. Whatever you get from the cache will be worth more to significantly more to "Holy WOW!" more than the 25MC used to open the thing - you simply run the very real risk of getting nothing you really want and basically just earning a variable amount of C-bills which will still tend very strongly towards better MC-to-Cbills efficiency than buying C-bills outright.

Path of Exile, another game I run a lot of, explicitly states that its various themed Mystery Boxes "always pay out something worth more than the Points it costs to buy the box!" Because that's the only way to sell boxes - make them a killer deal when they provide you something you want.

Opening boxes, whether PoE *** Mystery Boxes or MWO Caches, with the expectation of "I'ma get just exactly this thing!" is indeed stupid as hell - you'll always be better off just buying whatever specific thing you want outright. Want a Highlander IIC? Just go get one, don't count on snagging one from a lewt bawks.

But opening a Mystery Box/Cache with the intent of "Lessee what sort of stuff pops outta this one, eh? Who knows, I may get lucky!" is perfectly fine if that's what the guy wants to do. He'll make his MC back one way or another. Who're you to call him a gullible idiot, eh?

[El Bandito]

Sgt Ironballs, on 22 July 2016 - 04:03 PM, said:

I've played 4 games, won three, won a loot box 2x. First box I opened and won a Summoner D, worth about 4.5mil resale. I'll never open another, because I agree with you, and I just got plain lucky.

It actually makes me think that they probably tweaked win %s for the initial release - the opacity of the system let's them dial everything to their favor.

Apparently you have not seen the threads of those whining horde in the first day of the cache release, crying that they were "cheated" by PGI.

[Mole]

I opened one of the free supply caches with the free key I got for the event. I managed to get a box that something in it I wanted except for one item, a Streak SRM6. That was the only item in the box that I didn't want. Guess what it gave me? Yup. The Streak SRM6. Never again.

[Idealsuspect]

El Bandito, on 22 July 2016 - 06:52 PM, said:

Apparently you have not seen the threads of those whining horde in the first day of the cache release, crying that they were "cheated" by PGI.

All gambling games like this are cheated or they wouldn't exist because no compagny could make money with...
It doesnt mean it's impossible to win the jackpot price

[Champion of Khorne Lord of Blood]

Clicked thread hoping for actual detailed analysis because statistical knowledge is much more useful than an opinion. I feel cheated.

[Mole]

Idealsuspect, on 22 July 2016 - 09:44 PM, said:

All gambling games like this are cheated or they wouldn't exist because no compagny could make money with...
It doesnt mean it's impossible to win the jackpot price

Except for the fact that it actually costs PGI nothing to give you digital goods so there's really no good reason to make the supply caches so terrible that nobody will ever want to buy them.

[Champion of Khorne Lord of Blood]

Mole, on 22 July 2016 - 09:47 PM, said:

Except for the fact that it actually costs PGI nothing to give you digital goods so there's really no good reason to make the supply caches so terrible that nobody will ever want to buy them.

Games like TF2 and CSGO which are some of the most known for crate systems charge $2.50 for a key with a known chance of about 0.5% for their rarest prizes, if that. You are likely to get a random cheap skin worth about 10 cents or so. They're also super successful at selling their crates because of that lottery setup they run.

PGI at least sells very cheap keys with seemingly better chances based on just the forum posts I've read. Some statistical data would be nice just to see how much we are or aren't getting cheated.

You've opened a cache and got an SSRM6 (which is worth more than the cache itself if anything) and another guy opened one cache and got a Summoner. I'd say its at least worth researching for those who are interested.

[Idealsuspect]

Mole, on 22 July 2016 - 09:47 PM, said:

Except for the fact that it actually costs PGI nothing to give you digital goods so there's really no good reason to make the supply caches so terrible that nobody will ever want to buy them.

It cost just servers rent, employers money and developping of MWO money ( map, solaris, FW LOL ) ...

It cost nothing to them, they can replace MC event rewards by thoses supply cache rewards even nobody play supply cache mini game it's good for them even nobody play it ( and some are and will play it ).

[TWIAFU]

El Bandito, on 22 July 2016 - 06:52 PM, said:

Apparently you have not seen the threads of those whining horde in the first day of the cache release, crying that they were "cheated" by PGI.

Hehe.

They were all "cheated" by their sense of self entitlement because they didnt get what they wanted exactly when they wanted it.

It's funny, see;

Mole, on 22 July 2016 - 09:30 PM, said:

I opened one of the free supply caches with the free key I got for the event. I managed to get a box that something in it I wanted except for one item, a Streak SRM6. That was the only item in the box that I didn't want. Guess what it gave me? Yup. The Streak SRM6. Never again.

Funny.

Edited by TWIAFU, 23 July 2016 - 03:26 AM.

[Chemie]

1453 R, on 22 July 2016 - 04:23 PM, said:

Jeebus. Settle thine jimmies, Moldur.

Are the boxes an efficient way to get high-dollar prizes such as 'Mechs or 'Mech bays? No, of course not.

Are they, generally, going to be worth the MC to open them? Probably.

if they were provably not worth the 25MC it takes to open them - and someone will untangle the math eventually - then Piranha would be going against proven logic in every other 'Mystery Box' system ever implemented by anyone at any time.

It is in Piranha's best interests to make the 25MC you spend opening a crate some of the most efficiently-spent MC you'll ever spend, because that's the whole point of Mystery Boxes - you give up Choice of Item in exchange for Better Item Pricing. Whatever you get from the cache will be worth more to significantly more to "Holy WOW!" more than the 25MC used to open the thing - you simply run the very real risk of getting nothing you really want and basically just earning a variable amount of C-bills which will still tend very strongly towards better MC-to-Cbills efficiency than buying C-bills outright.

Path of Exile, another game I run a lot of, explicitly states that its various themed Mystery Boxes "always pay out something worth more than the Points it costs to buy the box!" Because that's the only way to sell boxes - make them a killer deal when they provide you something you want.

Opening boxes, whether PoE *** Mystery Boxes or MWO Caches, with the expectation of "I'ma get just exactly this thing!" is indeed stupid as hell - you'll always be better off just buying whatever specific thing you want outright. Want a Highlander IIC? Just go get one, don't count on snagging one from a lewt bawks.

But opening a Mystery Box/Cache with the intent of "Lessee what sort of stuff pops outta this one, eh? Who knows, I may get lucky!" is perfectly fine if that's what the guy wants to do. He'll make his MC back one way or another. Who're you to call him a gullible idiot, eh?

LOL
Based on this logic, slot machines would never be played.

[Angel of Annihilation]

I think they are rigged. Opened a Cache last night and the pointer stopped on the Mech for a full like 3 seconds. I was like "WOOT, I GOT THE MECH" then randomly it jumped to the lowest value thing in the box. I felt really ripped off badly.

[Mole]

TWIAFU, on 23 July 2016 - 03:24 AM, said:

It's funny, see;



Funny.

Hey pal. I never said I was whining about feeling cheated. My overall point was, I used the free cache as a test and the test convinced me that they are horribly rigged. So as such, I will not be purchasing any keys.

[Kuritaclan]

Chemie, on 23 July 2016 - 05:40 AM, said:

LOL
Based on this logic, slot machines would never be played.

Smart people don't play them. Do you ever have seen god gambling? Do ya. Ju8st Kidding.

[1453 R]

Chemie, on 23 July 2016 - 05:40 AM, said:

LOL
Based on this logic, slot machines would never be played.

The logic doesn't apply to slot machines - which, in my opinion, shouldn't be played, no.

Seriously. People need to stop comparing the things to outright casino-style gambling and then breaking down into fits of bloody-minded apoplexy because Piranha isn't just handing them hundreds of dollars of free stuff for nothing.

I got my event key/caches last night and found a box with four or five things in it I'd like. Opened it up, got two AC/2s - easily the lowest-value piece of garbage in the box. Selling two AC/2s is still worth 150k C-bills - three times more than just selling the box itself was worth. With a free key I didn't pay a thing for. Free money.

Even if you never open a box with MC you paid for, or even MC you win in events - if all you ever do is open boxes with keys you win during grab bag events and the like, you're still coming out ahead. Because

UNLIKE SLOT MACHINES

The caches will never eat your money and spit out nothing. That is the key thing to remember. You always get something, it will pretty much always be worth more to a lot more than 50k C-bills. So if you have some event keys to spare, why not?

[Angel of Annihilation]

1453 R, on 23 July 2016 - 07:42 AM, said:

The logic doesn't apply to slot machines - which, in my opinion, shouldn't be played, no.

Seriously. People need to stop comparing the things to outright casino-style gambling and then breaking down into fits of bloody-minded apoplexy because Piranha isn't just handing them hundreds of dollars of free stuff for nothing.

I got my event key/caches last night and found a box with four or five things in it I'd like. Opened it up, got two AC/2s - easily the lowest-value piece of garbage in the box. Selling two AC/2s is still worth 150k C-bills - three times more than just selling the box itself was worth. With a free key I didn't pay a thing for. Free money.

Even if you never open a box with MC you paid for, or even MC you win in events - if all you ever do is open boxes with keys you win during grab bag events and the like, you're still coming out ahead. Because

UNLIKE SLOT MACHINES

The caches will never eat your money and spit out nothing. That is the key thing to remember. You always get something, it will pretty much always be worth more to a lot more than 50k C-bills. So if you have some event keys to spare, why not?

Honestly this is very true and I "liked" you post but I have to say your forgetting something important. This is only true IF you can discipline yourself to not open Supply Cache's unless you have free keys. The problem with that is, this entire process plays against human psychology. By making the Supply Caches acquired by a lottery, you already have the player in a gambling mindset. Basically they just WON something. The natural progression is that the player is going to want to win something again but to do that you have to have a key. Also your never going to acquire enough free keys to open all the boxes nor are you likely going to even acquire enough keys to even open the best of them at a pace equal to you acquiring them so the natural instinct is to buy keys.

This is very much like a slot machine because with a slot machine you always win and I mean always. The problem is that the amounts you win aren't proportional to the amounts you have to spend to get that win. Put in $20 and you will win $10. The important part though is that you won and it feels good to win. This is why we have something called "gambling addiction" because the feeling of winning is like a drug even when intellectually you know your actually losing. That is what this new feature is playing on and why in the end it is a greed based move on PGI's part.

What really annoys me is that there are so many ways they could balance this so that they could have both fun and income at the same time but instead it looks like they were more concerned about income. I have never understood this to be honest. I know, ultimately, that this game has to be profitable but it just seems like they would be so much more successful if everything had more value for the money you were required to spend on it.

Edited by Viktor Drake, 23 July 2016 - 08:15 AM.

[TWIAFU]

Mole, on 23 July 2016 - 07:14 AM, said:

Hey pal. I never said I was whining about feeling cheated. My overall point was, I used the free cache as a test and the test convinced me that they are horribly rigged. So as such, I will not be purchasing any keys.

Wow, you found out all by yourself and with ONE FREE CACHE and ONE FREE KEY that it is rigged.

With one Cache/Key?!?! Amazing! And by what, pray tell, scientific method did you use to come to this "conclusion"?

You always give up and call "Cheat/Rigged" when you dont get what you want when you want it?

LOL

Rigged.

/pointat
/laugh

[Mole]

TWIAFU, on 23 July 2016 - 08:26 AM, said:

Wow, you found out all by yourself and with ONE FREE CACHE and ONE FREE KEY that it is rigged.

With one Cache/Key?!?! Amazing! And by what, pray tell, scientific method did you use to come to this "conclusion"?

You always give up and call "Cheat/Rigged" when you dont get what you want when you want it?

LOL

Rigged.

/pointat
/laugh

I've also been paying attention to what other people have been saying they've gotten out of their caches and noticed that people are almost always getting the least valuable item in the box. Also, why exactly are you white-knighting these supply caches so hard?