85 replies to this topic

[Jman5]

DAYLEET, on 27 July 2016 - 11:55 PM, said:

Thats how gambling works, its not a charity it's a fund raiser for the rich.

This isn't really the same thing as gambling in the traditional sense. PGI isn't taking money out of their vaults and handing it to you. They are creating value for you from nothing. Also, you only get a cache on average once every 12 wins, which puts a huge brake in the number of these things an average player will get. If you play 100 games with a 1.0 WLR you're only going to get on average 4 supply cache.

There really isn't a very good reason why PGI can't make the odds generous or even favorable to the player. After all they have made these events they do all the time way more generous than what you get from these rare supply caches.

From what I can tell, the odds are stupidly low beyond common drops, which is probably why they hide it from the players.

Edited by Jman5, 10 October 2016 - 10:20 PM.

[Jingseng]

Does availability bias always result in a strong subjectivity disparity? yes

[Nova Yield]

Hahaha random! I have more then a few times gotten the exact same items in 2-3 boxes, and I understand that you are going to end up geting these from time to time, but I win the same item from the identical boxes too?

[Kylere]

Last 12
3 days premium time
Omnipod (maybe direwolf?, I can't read my handwriting)
Med Laser x2
Stormcrow Omnipod
Some sort of cup thing
Med Laser x2
LRM 15
DRG-1N
50MC
250000Credits
Large Pulse Laser x2
UAC5 x 2

Edited by Kylere, 14 October 2016 - 03:05 PM.

[Lehmund]

EvilCow, on 28 July 2016 - 12:01 AM, said:

Probabilities are not equal, the rotating thing animation does not mean that all tiles have equal probability.

Basically probabilities are programmed on server and they can change them in any moment or even do "personalized settings" on a per-player basis based on your spending profile, they officially refused to give any detail so no guarantee.

The way these typically work in game design is like this (believe me, my company has developed mobile gambling games in the past):

• The item you are going to win is selected based on % chance and algorithms, either influence by your RNG history with the packs or just through RNG off a predetermined list with values attached (Common items have a much higher chance to be picked, while Very Rare items have a super low chance to be picked).
  
• You are presented with a list of items, some of which are very valuable, including the item that has already been rolled in step 1.
  
• The animation is all a show to make the presentation of the item you won more exciting and to give the illusion you may win something different / higher value.
  
• The needle always falls on your item.

This process makes the development of these very simple to do and PGI has full control over statistics and the frequency of the giveaways.

Often, the first ever spin will yield a higher chance to get something good, in order to get people excited at spinning more / buying keys,then it goes back down to normal win % (not sure if they do this here, but on my first spin, I got a Mech Bay, which was nice).

All in all, it's like in a casino. All smoke and mirrors and a show.

You do get something out of it, just don't expect the odds to be 1/8 on the items presented. Doesn't work that way in the back end.

Bottom line on PGI's implementation: It's well done and you do get more than what you would get if you buy C-Bills with MC and you can get a shot at even better.

So if you think there is value to you to buy C-Bills at a rebate for MC, then spin away. If not, just sell the packs for 50k or use Keys from Events (like I do).

Consider it a mini-game and have fun with it. It's not a money grab the way they present it. It just frustrates people because they have the illusion the odds are better than they really are.

[Jownz]

Lockboxes are totally random. Just like a slot machine your chances are probably limited

[Dark MagiKarp]

I have come to realize that although 8 items are presented, the probability of winning any given item is not 1/8. So, is the spinner rigged - yes, if you consider that showing 8 things and presenting a cute little wheel spinner strongly implies to you that you should have an equal chance at any of the 8 things.

The fact is that the commons are weighted more heavily that the uncommons, etc, etc. So this is not like a Pokemon 10 pack where you're guaranteed to get at least one rare in every pack (believe me, look at my name...).

I would say that the dominant strategy is to ALWAYS sell the Cache, unless you happen to get a free supply cache key. And then don't hope for anything but an SRM4 or a heatsink - BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT YOU ARE GOING TO GET!!! I'm yelling at myself, btw...

[Grognard1965]

Hmm, I have only opened about 4-5 of these. One was 50 MC, another was 3 Cache keys, another was CUAC20 which I love, and 10 Adv UAVs. I must be having some good luck.

[M3560 35003663]

Dark MagiKarp, on 20 October 2016 - 06:03 PM, said:

I would say that the dominant strategy is to ALWAYS sell the Cache, unless you happen to get a free supply cache key.

That's a bad strategy.

Caches are kinda rare, and keys are very cheap. Why would you give us such a bad advice is beyond me. You're either super angry at the caches, or super poor. Or both perhaps?
As I wrote in another thread, I opened 16 (or 17) caches and I got:

2 days of premium time
around 2.5 mil in c-bill rewards and items
50 mc, which I spent on two keys. So, 2 free keys.
10 Advanced UAVs.

I'd say, it was absolutely worth the 325 MC I spent. Besides, getting those 17 caches took me ~ 20 days. It's not like I can't afford to spend 325 MC every 20 days on keys.

Edited by M3560 35003663, 21 October 2016 - 05:24 AM.

[LordNothing]

its fairly easy to win 1 day premium times and 50mc prizes. the premium time is worth it at least, but by the time you win 50 mc you probibly already spent 100 on keys. ive won a couple mech bays too, far below the usual price.

some of the moderate prizes ive never won, never an engine or a module, anything i can actually use. ive also never won a mech. omnipods are a little too easy to win, and in most cases useless. they seem rather generous with weapons too.

if you are new to the game its probibly worth it to roll every cache. if you have been around a long time, most of what you win is stuff you already own. i think pgi gives away keys faster than you win caches naturally so its easy to stay in the green if you dont get obsessive. every time i win a wad of mc from an event, i like to spend a up to a quarter of it on keys. its more exciting than the game actual.

Edited by LordNothing, 21 October 2016 - 05:44 AM.

[Vlyn]

I'm a new player and I just got 4 keys in the event.

I saved up about 10 lootboxes, so I was pretty excited to open them and earn some rewards.

I picked awesome boxes, one even had 5 orange items and just one blue one (SRM2 or so), in every single box there were tons of things I'd have wanted to have. After box 2 I could actually just look at the bad items, say: This is the one I'm going to get.. and I was 100% right.

I didn't even get one good item out of it, I always got the worst thing in the 4 boxes. When I started out I thought: 25 MC per key? That's awesome, this will probably the first game where I'll buy those things because that price is really fair (And they heavily limit the amount of loot boxes you get anyway).

I've never seen something this bad. There were 32 items in the 4 boxes I opened. Only 6 of those were something I didn't want. I got all 4 from those 6, wtf PGI, make the keys more expensive instead of bending over your players and taking them without lube.

[Johnny Z]

I just opened a supply cache with MC yesterday and won it. So no it doesn't always give the worste reward and sometimes even gives the best reward.

[Chuanhao]

I actually have two of the exact same supply cache

What is the probability of that?

[Mystere]

I've so far earned a few thousand MC and some premium time. It's all in the luck of the draw.

[Recon Strike]

Chuanhao, on 28 October 2016 - 09:15 AM, said:

I actually have two of the exact same supply cache

What is the probability of that?

Happens all the time, I had two identical ones and opened both, both rewarded the same (trash) item.

[LesIzmore]

No luck everything is weighted to give higher probability to lesser items.

[Jack Firelake]

Supply caches are the biggest fraud since Wells Fargo. I've opened maybe 25 of them, and picking the ones with only 1 or 2 really undesirable piles of crap, and rest either a yellow, mech or mechbay, or otherwise desirable prizes. So far I've only gotten crap.
So, basic math is (1,5 / 8) ^25 to be in this position.

Basically we're being cheated 25MC for an AMS or a small pulse laser each time we open one. Nice job appreciating your customers.

[Jack Firelake]

Ok just now opened 2 more cahces. First one's worst prize was 50MC, and of course I got the worst one thus spent 25MC for 50 which is good. The second one though.... I got 500MC which is the first time I didn't get a warm poo in my hand. Gee thanks I guess.

[Deathlike]

Chuanhao, on 28 October 2016 - 09:15 AM, said:

I actually have two of the exact same supply cache

What is the probability of that?

"Pretty high" relatively speaking since the caches are a fixed set (dunno how many, but like up to 50 variations) and aren't truly random.

[Strelok7]

Recon Strike, on 28 October 2016 - 09:33 AM, said:

Happens all the time, I had two identical ones and opened both, both rewarded the same (trash) item.

Well, EVERYONE, here is the only answer you need ^