14 replies to this topic

[smokytehbear]

Saw some conspiracy/speculation on this and couldn't find a straight answer anywhere. If I open a supply cache, are the odds I'll receive any given item 1:8?

If yes, sweet, thank you for the response.

If no, PGI you're just asking for a lawsuit sometimes.

[Monkey Lover]

no where close to 1 and 8 for the top prize

[Whiplash Wally]

99:100 chance to get kit fox left leg omnipod, 1:100 to get anything good.

[Lightfoot]

Whiplash Wally, on 18 August 2016 - 07:22 PM, said:

99:100 chance to get kit fox left leg omnipod, 1:100 to get anything good.

QFT

[Othehto]

I have been tracking my unlocks (usually from keys purchased with residual MC from events)

I have received;

SRM-4
SSRM-6
(2) UAC-5
SHC-A Right Arm
Clan Active Probe
250K Cbills

I believe the current rates are;

• 25000MC/$99.95 -> 250MC/$
  
• 12000MC/$49.95 -> 240MC/$
  
• 6500MC/$29.95 -> 217MC/$
  
• 3000MC/$14.95 -> 200MC/$
  
• 1250MC/$6.95 -> 180MC/$
  
  
  
  
  
  So I have basically spent just about 6$ (175MC) in real currency to get roughly 1,200,000 CB in materials.
  
  Looking at the MWO wiki;

There are only 2 ways to get CBills (play the game and sell off mechs) so it's difficult to do a comparison but the wiki does tell us;



A typical player will do around 8 matches per hour of play time. A typical player with no premium time or hero mech will also make an average of around 90,061 C-Bills per match. This average will go up or down depending on player skill and play style, but it is a good baseline number to use. With this in mind we can make the following observation.

• 1 Hour of gameplay with no bonuses ˜ 667,121
  
• 1 Hour of gameplay with Hero Mechs ˜ 867,257
  
• 1 Hour of gameplay with Premium Account ˜ 1,000,682
  
• 1 Hour of gameplay with Premium and Hero Mech ˜ 1,200,818
  
  
  
  
  
  So I paid for what I could have earned in roughly an hour of gameplay or less if I do well.
  
  Is that expense worth it to you for a complete crap shoot. However, in 7 attempts 5 times I always got one of the lowest valued items and twice got probably the next lower.
  
  Selling those cache outright would have given me 350K Cbills and not cost me 6 bucks. I find it to be gamble much like a lottery ticket. I have MC that cannot purchase anything so sitting there in my bank it is basically worthless.. so I'm willing to take a crapshoot with it. Would I purposefully invest money to spend on keys...no.
  
  You are probably better off just buying 7 days of premium time for the same price.

Edited by Othehto, 18 August 2016 - 08:15 PM.

[Rhent]

Sell your supply caches and do NOT cash them in. PGI has made it where you will always be a loser in the transaction, always.

[smokytehbear]

Does anyone know if they have responded to this at all?

I heard previously that they knew about it, apologized, and had planned to update the UI so that it tells you what your actual chances are at a specific item.

As it is (again assuming the allegations that it's heavily weighted to give you garbage), it seems no different than loaded dice at a casino. How can they even get away with something like that?

[dervishx5]

A better question: has anyone won a mech from these things yet?

[smokytehbear]

dervishx5, on 18 August 2016 - 08:55 PM, said:

A better question: has anyone won a mech from these things yet?

Supposedly yes. Some people have posted it with screenshots.

I've only ever gotten garbage though, as have many others too apparently. To the point where it seems fishy, and not like the 1:8 odds you're not given any reason not to believe are accurate. Not until you start putting some records together anyway, which is like a cheating casino.

[dervishx5]

smokytehbear, on 18 August 2016 - 09:09 PM, said:

Supposedly yes. Some people have posted it with screenshots.

I've only ever gotten garbage though, as have many others too apparently. To the point where it seems fishy, and not like the 1:8 odds you're not given any reason not to believe are accurate. Not until you start putting some records together anyway, which is like a cheating casino.

Well Valve put in the percentile chances of getting something on their crates. But since someone else has done it correctly before, the wheel must be reinvented.

[Xetelian]

I've only opened the two from last weekend and got garbage both times


They need more transparency about this, CasinoWarrior Online is no bueno

[smokytehbear]

Xetelian, on 18 August 2016 - 10:11 PM, said:

I've only opened the two from last weekend and got garbage both times


They need more transparency about this, CasinoWarrior Online is no bueno

CheatingCasinoWarrior Online*

If you create an illusion that your odds of winning are better than they really are for a game, then proceed to take people's bets on that rigged chance of winning, that's cheating. A more avid gambler might be able to correct me on this, but aren't slot machines required to have their odds visible on the machine?

Saying that a box contains one of the following and only showing 8 options, then displaying a wheel that doesn't seem to indicate there's anything but a 1:8 odds for a given item, undeniably creates the impression of wrong odds to the user. I won't go so far as saying PGI knows this and did it on purpose to rip people off, but if these really are broken odds, it should definitely be addressed, like immediately.

It would take PGI less effort than a hotfix to just suspend supply cache opening and purchasing of keys until they patched in some indication of the odds (like Valve did). If they care about doing the right thing that is.

[nitra]

I also think the odds are attached to items.

as some people have duplicate supply caches (which i think is bogus to begin with especially if buy them)

my experience thus far is that unlocking duplicate supply caches nets you the same reward.

now thats only been one time thus far for me, but still i find that pretty hinky for some thing with supposed random chances.

thus why i say its rigged.

[Ace Selin]

dervishx5, on 18 August 2016 - 08:55 PM, said:

A better question: has anyone won a mech from these things yet?

unit mate won a spider, another won 1000mc

so whilst rare its possible to win nice stuff

[Deathlike]

Assume you'll get garbage. There will be a super rare moment that you will get something good... but again... it's super rare.

It's literally like the lotto... assume you'll get screwed.