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Supply Cache Science

Metagame

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#1 Keren

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Posted 04 August 2016 - 07:19 AM

Hello fellow Mechwarriors !

At least some of you like the supply caches and the little gambling element it adds.
I made a website to collect information on the supply caches and I'm trying to find out the rough chances to get certain items out of the crates, which crates are better than others etc.
So if you are interested and want to help, or just take a look, head over to :
http://mwo.machtprobe.de
and add the items you received or the caches you sold.

If you got suggestions for improvment , post them here or head over to reddit:
https://redd.it/4vy39x

It's still kind of beta and ugly but it's functional and I'm still working on it.

#2 invernomuto

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Posted 04 August 2016 - 09:01 AM

Seems that mechs wins are not so uncommon in some crates...

Edited by invernomuto, 04 August 2016 - 09:02 AM.


#3 Keren

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Posted 05 August 2016 - 01:52 AM

- !!!!! ALL DATA after 11:15 2016-08-04 UTC to 9:45 2016-08-05 UTC HAD TO BE WIPED !!!!
I had a bug after a update, always the last itemID in a crate was stored, leading to a lot of mech draws

#4 iamsek

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Posted 05 August 2016 - 01:57 AM

Lol
Still thanks for the effort.

Edited by iamsek, 05 August 2016 - 01:58 AM.


#5 Keren

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Posted 05 August 2016 - 03:44 AM

Now that the basics are up and running the updates will be less frequent and better tested.

#6 KodiakGW

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Posted 05 August 2016 - 05:44 AM

Thanks for doing this. I've been holding off selling or opening any to see which ones might be better to open. So I have 6 caches and 3 keys. One has the EXE-A in it, which two out of five people got. So I'll be trying that one. I'll add my results next time I fire up the game.


#7 Grottenolm

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Posted 13 August 2016 - 08:31 AM

When you get a Mech is there a Bay included ?
I have the chance to get two mechs but have no bay free. :(

#8 Countess

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Posted 13 August 2016 - 08:35 AM

View Postinvernomuto, on 04 August 2016 - 09:01 AM, said:

Seems that mechs wins are not so uncommon in some crates...

Mech parts. Like a right or left torso.

But yeah, it's possible to win a mech, but chances are you'll be stuck with a mech part or c-bills.

Edited by Countess, 13 August 2016 - 08:52 AM.


#9 El Bandito

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Posted 13 August 2016 - 08:40 AM

Done. Personally, the most numerous prize I got was the 250,000 C-Bill one.

#10 invernomuto

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Posted 13 August 2016 - 09:12 AM

View PostCountess, on 13 August 2016 - 08:35 AM, said:

Mech parts. Like a right or left torso.

But yeah, it's possible to win a mech, but chances are you'll be stuck with a mech part or c-bills.


According to the data posted when I made that comment, the possibility on winning a mech was strangely high for some crates.
This is was the explanation, there was a bug in data collection:

Quote

[color=#959595]- !!!!! ALL DATA after 11:15 2016-08-04 UTC to 9:45 2016-08-05 UTC HAD TO BE WIPED !!!![/color]
[color=#959595]I had a bug after a update, always the last itemID in a crate was stored, leading to a lot of mech draws [/color]


#11 invernomuto

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Posted 13 August 2016 - 10:15 AM

4 Crates opened so far, on one I get 250K (not bad... (*) ), on the rest only low value things.

(*) on crate ID #26 it seems also very probable according to the stats tracked by the site.

Edited by invernomuto, 13 August 2016 - 10:18 AM.


#12 Countess

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Posted 13 August 2016 - 11:59 AM

Is there a "top tier" crate? are there any tiers? because that would be nice for people who want to have the best chances, even when getting a crate is slow and painful. And unnecessarily so.

Edited by Countess, 13 August 2016 - 11:59 AM.


#13 CycKath

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Posted 13 August 2016 - 01:56 PM

View PostCountess, on 13 August 2016 - 11:59 AM, said:

Is there a "top tier" crate? are there any tiers? because that would be nice for people who want to have the best chances, even when getting a crate is slow and painful. And unnecessarily so.


For a lot of people I guess crates that contain 'Mechs are more attractive.

#14 AntleredCormorant

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Posted 13 August 2016 - 02:57 PM

I can tell you that getting a supply crate reward rather than some cool themed item has made the events a lot less interesting to me.

#15 Kalleballe

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Posted 20 August 2016 - 04:27 PM

If people input caches from the PTS we would get 100 samples each crate in no time.

#16 Cyrilis

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Posted 29 August 2016 - 12:56 AM

good one Keren!

I am keeping an Excel sheet with the exact same information up to date.

Done, extended the database by 25 points, will continue

Edited by Cyrilis, 30 August 2016 - 07:29 AM.


#17 kesmai

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Posted 29 August 2016 - 01:07 AM

Using science to beat the wheel of fortune.
Hmmm...
Can we do that with mechquirks?

Oh, wait...





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