25 replies to this topic

[Rhialto]

Seriously, what are the odds that I flip a coin ang get the same result 13 times in a row? Must be one out of millions!

That's 2 hours I try to get the x2 XP bonus on 2 Mechs and just can't. That's all the play time I had for today.

I post because it's not the first time I get on a losing streak, there's always come a time where I score 7-10 losts in a row and that always amaze me. To be fair it's sometimes 7-10 wins in a row.

Whatever, time to go sleep... will focus on counting unicorns to relax.

[Tarl Cabot]

1. You are part of a team made up of 11 other folks vs 12 other folks.
2. Side with best cooperation/communication will generally win.
3. Mech builds will matter some but priority is still #2
4. Bad luck happens. Stop dropping for 7 minutes or so, especially if you are seeing the same people on both sides.
5. People tend to remember the bad stuff in games instead of the good stuff.

Edited by Tarl Cabot, 06 December 2016 - 08:01 PM.

[Nik Reaper]

A mere 13 streak? haha .
My best one so far was 17, though in honesty after the 8~9th one I wasn't really trying much.

[Bombast]

A great big case of "**** Happens."

Also, 13 is fairly paltry. Come back to me when you can beat 33.

[FupDup]

[El Bandito]

When my loss streak reaches 5, I simply play another game. Tilting is a very real thing, and I want no part of it.

[Davers]

Play an assault mech. They have the highest winning percentage on average.

[GrimRiver]

My highest was 23, that was some time ago.

Gawd I'm tired of being paired with sub end T3's.

[vandalhooch]

Rhialto, on 06 December 2016 - 07:50 PM, said:

Seriously, what are the odds that I flip a coin ang get the same result 13 times in a row? Must be one out of millions!

And yet again we need a refresher course in statistics. You can't calculate the likelihood of something that has already happened. The likelihood that you got thirteen losses in a row is 1.

You are ignoring the other 8,191 possible combinations from a thirteen match stretch. You aren't asking the likelihood that you got a WWWWLLLWWLWLW are you? Because the "odds" that you got that result are exactly the same as getting thirteen losses (assuming win/loss probability of .5 for each match).

You just think thirteen losses is out of place because you noticed it. It's called confirmation bias.

Quote

That's 2 hours I try to get the x2 XP bonus on 2 Mechs and just can't. That's all the play time I had for today.

I post because it's not the first time I get on a losing streak, there's always come a time where I score 7-10 losts in a row and that always amaze me. To be fair it's sometimes 7-10 wins in a row.

To be fair?

Look, if you had lost that fourteenth match would you be even more amazed/angered? Even though the previous thirteen matches play absolutely no role in the outcome of the fourteenth? People who think like this are the reason that Las Vegas can exist as climate controlled, resource consuming super-monster in the middle of a resource-depleted environment.

Quote

Whatever, time to go sleep... will focus on counting unicorns to relax.

Edit:

Calculations with my own statistics. W/L of 1.24, which puts the probability of a random match being a loss for me at 45%. That means the probability of any thirteen match sequence being all losses is 1 in 32,228. I have a total of 13,493 matches. Which means that statistically speaking there is a 42% likelihood that I have at least one thirteen loss sequence somewhere in my history. If my W/L ratio was 1.00, then I should have 1.65 such streaks in my history.

Edited by vandalhooch, 06 December 2016 - 08:51 PM.

[KodiakGW]

Do what I do, play less.

And less...

And less...

My basic feeling is if it feels like work, then I should be getting paid, not paying. Reason why I didn't buy any of the new mech packs. I wanted to, but then I remembered what I usually got in quick play.

[Dee Eight]

GrimRiver, on 06 December 2016 - 08:15 PM, said:

Gawd I'm tired of being paired with sub end T3's.

Really? I have the same sentiment about sub end T1s and T2s.

[Tibbnak]

I have a 1.3 win/loss ratio in the kitfox, and a 1.8 in the shadowcat. *shrug*

[Lukoi Banacek]

87 83 1.05 108 125 0.86 171 190

That's mostly in heavies/assaults (almost every match actually).

If your average match score is 190, which is solidly below the average if some deep dives are to be believed, in the highest damage scoring weight classes, it might be less the MM than you might think. It's a team game with many variables but you must contribute to the match effectively to get wins.

As your WLR is near exactly 1.0 per the intent of the MM and PSR/tier system (not defending it, just noting), I'd say you just had a run of bad luck man. Shake it off, come back later when yer fresher.

Sometimes, when ya get on an unlucky streak, it becomes self-fulfilling because ya get irritated about that and overly fixate on it rather than just playing yer best.

[Cato Phoenix]

Dude, this is like a normal night of mechwarrior for me.

all you can do is carry harder...:/

[RestosIII]

Rhialto, on 06 December 2016 - 07:50 PM, said:

Seriously, what are the odds that I flip a coin ang get the same result 13 times in a row? Must be one out of millions!

That's not how probabilities work.

[Jman5]

They're doing something with matchmaker. I just played a solo queue game with a guy in Tier 4. That wasn't possible before.

[Dee Eight]

Even losing streaks can be beneficial... for example so far in the past hour tonight I've died once and killed 13. But there's only been 1 winning game in that. Two of the losing games I was also the high damage scorer and got past the magical 251 match score to preserve my PSR bar. I had a five kill conquest game on polar where unfortunately the T1/T2s wanted to deathball to get kills, kept stepping in front of me trying to break my indirect fire to vulture the kills (they failed), and we lost on tickets by a significant margin...because they put little effort into actually doing the objective. After the 7th guy butted in front of me, and I'm firing a continuous stream of LRM5 shots...so its plainly obvious i was shooting... I said over voip that the next one who did that was going to learn the hard way that I wasn't just packing LRMs. That evoked some laughter. Still had to teach the lesson to a KCG and a SHD afterwards. I don't take kindly to people who won't get their own locks because they're too busy hiding in ravines, from trying to steal the effort of the guy in the Archer standing on high ground sticking his neck out because they haven't killed anything yet and aren't keeping track of where the enemy is.

Jman5, on 06 December 2016 - 09:11 PM, said:

They're doing something with matchmaker. I just played a solo queue game with a guy in Tier 4. That wasn't possible before.

False... it was established months ago that the MM actually doesn't care what tier a player is if its trying to fill a game for awhile.

[Palor]

My longest losing streak was 16 in a row, my longest winning steak was 14.

Interestingly enough, I was trying to level new mechs on the losing streak and was playing mastered mechs for the winning one.

All solo queue QP.

[Dee Eight]

Well my kill streak continues... just pulled a team's *** outta the fire... 1 kill via LRMs, 3 via SRMs after I shot the LRM bins dry. We were down 6 to 8 when I backed off the upper ramp on crimsom thru the skylight right by the tunnel exit and just as my last LRMs launched. Ran thru the tunnel, came out middle, came up behind the warhawk I'd been abusing...killed him with 40 SRMs... then wacked an executioner, then a nova, then a storm crow. Final outcome was 2KMDD, 8 assists, 1 solo (the warhawk) and a game win. Followed that up by missing the beginning to a game and flipping over to see myself dead already. Got to spectate well driven kodiaks (a kdk-3 and a SB) and a badly driven kodiak (also a 3). Making that only the second game in 8 now in the past 90 mins I've ended up spectating.

What I get a kick out of is the game streaks some players do... look at the leaderboard.... six days in and we have a player past 525 games.

Edited by Dee Eight, 06 December 2016 - 09:44 PM.

[Goober Gabber v2]

This is basically every Wednesday for me.

I don't know why, but Wednesdays are my most unlucky days when it comes to PVP games.
It got to the point where my friend and I say "Oh, it's Wednesday" when we lose a couple of times.