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Fw Tug-Of-War: Design Fail, Not Balance Fail

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#61 BLOOD WOLF

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 11:55 PM

View PostYeonne Greene, on 20 December 2016 - 11:46 PM, said:


No it wouldn't. If progress is measured as number of wins against the ever-expanding total matches played, you never actually hit 100%, ever. You only approach it.

It becomes a game of averages.



Nothing really wrong with that.

One another note, Of course when one side starts to win the tug of war system actually makes the losing side have to win more often then the winning side. that is the concept.

Since the only variable that really matters is winning, Can you point to a system that doesn't have this flaw?

Let me save the trouble. We have to look at win percentages. If the clans have a higher win percentage than no matter how many times the IS wins they still lose. Even if they have a greater population the same thing would happen.

None of this is inherent to the tug of war, its once again blaming and wasting our time looking at non-issues

Edited by BLOOD WOLF, 20 December 2016 - 11:58 PM.


#62 ScarecrowES

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 11:55 PM

View PostShalune, on 20 December 2016 - 11:43 PM, said:

Alright first of all I want to commend you on a good initial observation. I think it's a good one that explains the disparity between community perceptions and what PGI has been citing from match stats.

But you're making a ton of assumptions here, mainly:
- the tug of war is why the IS is disadvantaged
- the tug of war is why there has not been a swing


I want to stop you here.

The first statement is false. At no point have I said that the tug-of-war is the reason the IS is disadvantaged. In fact, I've said largely the opposite... that any disadvantage the IS might have, for any reason, is amplified by the tug-of-war system. From there, your second statement is true. Because of the inherent bias in the design of the system, and lack of balance (no matter the size) creates an inevitable full swing that's largely impossible to overcome. There is, effectively, no TUG in the tug-of-war. Just an inevitable march in one direction.

View PostShalune, on 20 December 2016 - 11:43 PM, said:

These are ******* nonsense. We know the first is false because the tug of war provides no initial advantage to either side. They start at complete parity. The second is equally ridiculous specifically because of the threshold your describe.

You're considering the system purely based on the current results and ignoring how it would behave under different conditions. One side could maintain a 90% win rate, but if they lose a string of 30 matches as the period ends, they will lose. So it's absurd to argue the tug of war somehow discourages swings. It actually enables them, which is why I'd argue it's at least a decent system. It encourages both sides to stay involved to the end without punishing the current winner so harshly. It also encourages continued engagement by the winner lest the current loser slowly push towards the middle, making a last minute comeback more realistic.

I'd also argue that the pegging you describe is a good thing for FP right now. Until we have a better system, having planets frequently change hand is more interesting than frequent stalemates. And people are going to keep playing either way right now because of the payout, and apparent fun of respawns.

PS: being paranoid about PGI's balancing around the metagame is nonsense. They're the ones that keep raising the less dramatic stats of match winrates, not us.


With that out of the way, now to address the rest...

If one side maintained a 90% win rate over an 8 hour session, how likely would it be, do you think, that in the final minutes of that session that they suddenly produce a loss rate sufficient to result in a 60-win differential? The time required to produce a minimum of 60 matches would already be prohibitive to that concept. To ensure that the majority of those matches ended with a different result than the results of the previous 500, also prohibitive.

I think it's safe to say we won't see any swing from max to max. We COULD see a small swing enough to push the peg from max to just under the win condition. But this has yet to happen even once in 21 sessions so far.

Like you, I love the idea that planetary control could swing dramatically over an 8-hour session and require constant attention to win. However, this hasn't been the case as of yet because the system simply isn't set up that way.

PGI's focus on the system has, thus far, centered entirely on slowing the Clan's march to max. Trying to balance to the result of the meta-game is not going to work... especially when the meta-game itself doesn't work properly.

#63 Duke Nedo

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Posted 20 December 2016 - 11:56 PM

View PostScarecrowES, on 20 December 2016 - 10:36 PM, said:


Already addressed... as I said, even the tiniest imbalance will result in a massive swing to 100%. First "every match" is a massive exaggeration - PGI confirms it's nowhere near that. Since the Clan side is winning 57% of matches, at that rate Clan victory is a foregone conclusion after only about 300 matches. As I said, victory is all-but guaranteed for whichever side has the advantage... be it from tech imbalance, population imbalance, skill imbalance... doesn't matter.


Once sec, where did you get that 57% from? From the FW window I played in two days ago it looked like this: http://imgur.com/a/xJ0EG

Clans won 61/66 games, that's more than 90% and nowhere near 60%ish. It's only one window, but it was Europe prime time so I'd surprised if it was an extreme outlier. This is why many are resigned...

In any case, tug-of-war is completely irrelevant to faction balance. It only matters for the meta game and it can safely be ignored unless you care about the star map. The only thing that matters for faction balance is the match log, and the win% for each faction. On that I'd assume we agree?

Edited by Duke Nedo, 20 December 2016 - 11:56 PM.


#64 BLOOD WOLF

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:03 AM

View PostScarecrowES, on 20 December 2016 - 11:55 PM, said:


because the system simply isn't set up that way.



Has nothing to do with the system dude.

had the IS won a majority of their conflicts we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

"creates an inevitable full swing that's largely impossible to overcome. There is, effectively, no TUG in the tug-of-war. Just an inevitable march in one direction."

That is the whole Point of the tug of war. The more you lose the more you have to gain back. Same with the old system. The more squares you lose the more you have to gain back.

You have to demonstrate how any other solution is going to be any different.

Edited by BLOOD WOLF, 21 December 2016 - 12:05 AM.


#65 Duke Nedo

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:03 AM

...and if I should respond to the OP: So? That's the way it has always been? We used to have like 13 contested zones per planet which is basically the same thing but just with a smaller buffer. If one side won them all and continued to win defense matches, that win would also disappear into the void. The other faction could turn a planet in 13 games before the window closed.

To me the tug of war is just identical, a little bigger pond just. We used to fight for 7.7% (1/13) and now we fight for 3.3% (1/30). What's new?

Edit: the only real difference is that now we don't have defender- and attacker queues. We just have matches.

Edited by Duke Nedo, 21 December 2016 - 12:06 AM.


#66 BLOOD WOLF

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:06 AM

View PostDuke Nedo, on 21 December 2016 - 12:03 AM, said:

...and if I should respond to the OP: So? That's the way it has always been? We used to have like 13 contested zones per planet which is basically the same thing but just with a smaller buffer. If one side won them all and continued to win defense matches, that win would also disappear into the void. The other faction could turn a planet in 13 games before the window closed.

To me the tug of war is just identical, a little bigger pond just. We used to fight for 7.7% (1/13) and now we fight for 3.3% (1/30). What's new?

like I said, its a non-issue. The Op was just spinning his wheels for a couple of pages now.

Once he demonstrates a system that escapes this then that will be the day. Which I doubt he will.

In an actually tug of war, the more the other side begins to win, the harder it is for you to push back, despite making gains.

Edited by BLOOD WOLF, 21 December 2016 - 12:08 AM.


#67 ScarecrowES

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:08 AM

View PostJohnny Z, on 20 December 2016 - 11:49 PM, said:

At this moment Clantech has advanatage anyone can see. They always have.

Wave One Clan mechs are cheese colored for a reason, because they were cheese mode. Posted Image Still are. Until the Arctic Cheater gets nerfed into not being the best light like it has been for years and a few other balance problems then anyone argue balance is completely good is simply wrong.


Remember, I'm not arguing against certain advantages on the Clan side. We all know balance isn't perfect and needs to be addressed. The rash of "evil clan XL" threads of late attest to that.

But of course, if we judge by the actual results of FW/CW, the Clans have rarely ever been successful despite their advantages. It took a full Clan organization to push to Terra. The previous system, as terrible as it was, at least ensured that minor advantages didn't balloon into full-on incontestable domination.

View PostDuke Nedo, on 20 December 2016 - 11:56 PM, said:


Once sec, where did you get that 57% from? From the FW window I played in two days ago it looked like this: http://imgur.com/a/xJ0EG

Clans won 61/66 games, that's more than 90% and nowhere near 60%ish. It's only one window, but it was Europe prime time so I'd surprised if it was an extreme outlier. This is why many are resigned...

In any case, tug-of-war is completely irrelevant to faction balance. It only matters for the meta game and it can safely be ignored unless you care about the star map. The only thing that matters for faction balance is the match log, and the win% for each faction. On that I'd assume we agree?


The numbers are coming from Russ. He says Clan win rate is about 57% right now... so I assume this is as of the Dec 20th patch. But he had said that the average before that was about 60%.

And I could completely agree with you that the meta-game really isn't important to intra-faction balance. The problem is, of course, that the tug-of-war issues completely obscure or conflate the underlying balance issues. And, moreover, that PGI's balance efforts have been based completely on the meta-game results, not addressing any of the underlying balance issues.

Unfortunately, as I've shown, even a tiny win % advantage is enough to peg the tug-of-war at max for the advantaged faction.

I agree, 100%, that the underlying balance issues MUST be addressed. But until the tug-of-war is fixed, it's going to be REALLY hard to see exactly what those issues are and how best to fix them.

#68 BLOOD WOLF

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:14 AM

View PostScarecrowES, on 21 December 2016 - 12:08 AM, said:


Unfortunately, as I've shown, even a tiny win % advantage is enough to peg the tug-of-war at max for the advantaged faction.


yea, we all get that. Over an extended period of time the clans will keep gaining on the tug-of war, because its increasing on an average of 7% over X period of time.

1. How is this unique to tug of war, given that the clans over a period of time will start to win more anyways.

2. give a system that would even if the clans has a higher win rate, not allow them to take the planets in succession.

All you are going to end up doing is ending up where you began.

Edited by BLOOD WOLF, 21 December 2016 - 12:16 AM.


#69 ScarecrowES

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:16 AM

View PostDuke Nedo, on 21 December 2016 - 12:03 AM, said:

...and if I should respond to the OP: So? That's the way it has always been? We used to have like 13 contested zones per planet which is basically the same thing but just with a smaller buffer. If one side won them all and continued to win defense matches, that win would also disappear into the void. The other faction could turn a planet in 13 games before the window closed.

To me the tug of war is just identical, a little bigger pond just. We used to fight for 7.7% (1/13) and now we fight for 3.3% (1/30). What's new?

Edit: the only real difference is that now we don't have defender- and attacker queues. We just have matches.


From a practical perspective, the new and old systems are quite different.

The win conditions are nowhere near the same. And the amount of effort required to turn a max (win) condition to a loss condition are quite far apart. Simply put, it was much easier for a defender to prevent the attacker from achieving a win condition, and it required a lot more than a tiny win percentage advantage for the attackers to win a planet. Other than that, sure, they're similar.

#70 BLOOD WOLF

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:17 AM

View Postnaterist, on 20 December 2016 - 10:29 PM, said:

imma poke a massive hole in your theory op, if its the sliders fault, and its so easy to go either way right off the bat, why hasnt the inner sphere won a single tug of war yet? would seem like both sides have an equal chance to win in this situation, but IS hasnt won a single planet yet.

More than one person already poked holes in his theory crafting.

He is going to do anything but to provide a template that gets around the very thing he is complaining about.

Edited by BLOOD WOLF, 21 December 2016 - 12:18 AM.


#71 Johnny Z

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:17 AM

The only question remaining how much easy mode is needed for a factions tech in a game.

#72 Y E O N N E

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:18 AM

View PostBLOOD WOLF, on 20 December 2016 - 11:55 PM, said:

Nothing really wrong with that.

One another note, Of course when one side starts to win the tug of war system actually makes the losing side have to win more often then the winning side. that is the concept.

Since the only variable that really matters is winning, Can you point to a system that doesn't have this flaw?

Let me save the trouble. We have to look at win percentages. If the clans have a higher win percentage than no matter how many times the IS wins they still lose. Even if they have a greater population the same thing would happen.

None of this is inherent to the tug of war, its once again blaming and wasting our time looking at non-issues


It's not the system itself, it's that the way the metric is measured does not adequately display by how much one faction is winning. It might as well provide us a binary where 0 = IS winning and 1 = Clans winning, because that's the resolution the metric the game displays affords us and that's all you can ever get from a zero-sum tug-of-war metric. What's alarming is that people are using this metric to go "look, see! IS are losing in a landslide!" and, according to PGI, that's not quite the case. It's only 7%.

Really, there ought to be a tracker per planet that shows how many matches were fought over that planet and how many were won by each side, independent of the tug-of-war position indicator. Speed is the derivative of displacement; we are not interested in the win displacement, we want to know the win rate.

#73 BLOOD WOLF

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:22 AM

View PostYeonne Greene, on 21 December 2016 - 12:18 AM, said:


It's not the system itself, it's that the way the metric is measured does not adequately display by how much one faction is winning. It might as well provide us a binary where 0 = IS winning and 1 = Clans winning, because that's the resolution the metric the game displays affords us and that's all you can ever get from a zero-sum tug-of-war metric. What's alarming is that people are using this metric to go "look, see! IS are losing in a landslide!" and, according to PGI, that's not quite the case. It's only 7%.

Really, there ought to be a tracker per planet that shows how many matches were fought over that planet and how many were won by each side, independent of the tug-of-war position indicator. Speed is the derivative of displacement; we are not interested in the win displacement, we want to know the win rate.

as long as we know which faction won the last match that is all we need. how many matches did the clans win and how many did the IS win. Its simple, as a matter of fact the OP is one of the few to over complicate it.

At the end of the day, One side has to win, and it doesn't always have to be clans. As a matter of fact If it was IS vs IS, we could potentially see the same thing.

#74 Duke Nedo

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:37 AM

View PostYeonne Greene, on 21 December 2016 - 12:18 AM, said:



It's not the system itself, it's that the way the metric is measured does not adequately display by how much one faction is winning. It might as well provide us a binary where 0 = IS winning and 1 = Clans winning, because that's the resolution the metric the game displays affords us and that's all you can ever get from a zero-sum tug-of-war metric. What's alarming is that people are using this metric to go "look, see! IS are losing in a landslide!" and, according to PGI, that's not quite the case. It's only 7%.

Really, there ought to be a tracker per planet that shows how many matches were fought over that planet and how many were won by each side, independent of the tug-of-war position indicator. Speed is the derivative of displacement; we are not interested in the win displacement, we want to know the win rate.


I have no idea why the OP believes that PGI is using the starmap to balance factions. They may be stupid, but they are not ******* stupid. :)

Only the match log matters, we all know that. The mechanism of planet transfer only matters for the star map, and it's nearly identical to the old system. Nothing new under the sun.

What bothers me is that clans won 61/66 matches two days ago, after the new drop limits were introduced. That's nowhere near 60%. I didn't play yesterday, did something change? If 57% is the average and we have "outliers" at 90% in some windows at the same time, I would expect that IS would win at least one window (given that kind of variance). Did they?

#75 ScarecrowES

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:46 AM

View PostBLOOD WOLF, on 21 December 2016 - 12:14 AM, said:

yea, we all get that. Over an extended period of time the clans will keep gaining on the tug-of war, because its increasing on an average of 7% over X period of time.

1. How is this unique to tug of war, given that the clans over a period of time will start to win more anyways.

2. give a system that would even if the clans has a higher win rate, not allow them to take the planets in succession.

All you are going to end up doing is ending up where you began.


1) the problem is unique to the current tug-of-war system because it's inherent to its design. The system cares about one criteria, win differential. It does not care about, specifically, win percentage except in that in order to maintain a pre-existing win differential the winning side must also maintain a positive win percentage. Of course, we know that they wouldn't have a win differential at all if they couldn't maintain a positive win percentage.

2) Are you asking me to propose an alternative system that would work better? Because I've done that already over several other threads once talk of FW changes first came about prior to the FW roundtable. I could, of course highlight certain concepts, if it helps, to steer where a system should be going, if not outline specific changes.

First, move away from fixed amounts the bar moves based on real-time recorded wins. This is the primary factor that causes the bar to wing in one direction and stay there.

As highlighted by even yourself, and many others in this thread, most people put their faith in win percentage instead. This alone isn't a good basis for the tug-of-war system, as it would tend toward static and unchangable conditions just the same as the current system does... it just wouldn't be pegged all the way to the end. The idea system would consider multiple factors.

My initial proposal for incorporating QP modes into FW included a scoring system to allow QP matches to count toward FW border skirmishes. In that system players received points for their faction for the match result. A win gave your faction a point, a loss awarded none. I also factored in actual individual performance by adding an additional point for any player who reached a specified performance threshold during the match. So players on the winning side could receive either 1 or 2 points for their factions, while players on the losing side could receive 0 or 1 point for theirs.

This system rewards both wins, and performance, which is important if you want to judge just how much better one faction is over another. The idea was to compare the accumulated points for each faction in a border skirmish - modify based on the population(match participation) differential for fairness - and whoever has the most points wins.

This doesn't work purely within the scope of the tug-of-war system as it stands, because it's only concerned with absolute win differential, whereas there must be a degree of "march" present for the tug-of-war system to progress from mode to mode. So instead, we use the points system to modify the amount the win nets the winning team. So instead of 3.33% (or whatever other arbitrary amount), we modify that amount based on the actual match results. It's possible, then (though unlikely), that a faction could win a match and still not have their bar increase - if, for instance, the winning team performed poorly individually (thus receiving only the win point) while every member of the losing team performed well (gaining them a point) for a 0-point differential.

What such a system would allow for is the tug-of-war to continue to march through all modes to the win condition at the end, but more slowly, and in keeping with a rate more consistent with actual faction performance.

In order to ensure that the defending faction can still rally and push the attackers out of a win condition, once we get to the red zone we can return to a pure win-based system as we have now. The advantage here is that the attacker will have had to EARN getting to a win condition, but both the attacker and defender theoretically have a more equal fight over that win condition.

On the whole, that gives you a better tug-of-war experience which is much more fair to each faction, and largely negates inherent faction advantages in favor of actual performance.

One other change I'd make that I'd suggested before is that planets don't flip directly from one faction to the other on a win. They go to neutral first, where neither faction owns the planet. This adds a LOT more strategy to the meta-game, as it requires a lot more thought as to where best to place your efforts. But this was back before the change to the current system of planet swaps, so not sure how well it applies to the changes.

#76 Y E O N N E

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:46 AM

I don't know what the actual global win-rate is. My information is as faulty as whatever has been provided in this thread, because this thread is my source. Like I said earlier, I haven't been paying too much attention to FW until today, when the whinging on both sides reached a head.

#77 ScarecrowES

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 12:56 AM

View PostDuke Nedo, on 21 December 2016 - 12:37 AM, said:

I have no idea why the OP believes that PGI is using the starmap to balance factions. They may be stupid, but they are not ******* stupid. :) Only the match log matters, we all know that. The mechanism of planet transfer only matters for the star map, and it's nearly identical to the old system. Nothing new under the sun. What bothers me is that clans won 61/66 matches two days ago, after the new drop limits were introduced. That's nowhere near 60%. I didn't play yesterday, did something change? If 57% is the average and we have "outliers" at 90% in some windows at the same time, I would expect that IS would win at least one window (given that kind of variance). Did they?


I have to laugh here, because this is EXACTLY what PGI is doing.

You might want to check out Russ Bullock's Twitter feed. He's telling us exactly what PGI is doing and why.

ALL of PGI's balance efforts right now are based around slowing down how quickly the Clans max out their bar. In fact, Russ has been calling it a victory that the bar is not maxxed out right away, and it's been taking a lot longer to get there - thus allowing players to actually play modes OTHER than Invasion.

It's not like I'm pulling this out of my ***... this is EXACTLY what they're doing, in their own words.

Russ has been saying since the 13th that the Clan win percentages were not that high - not nearly as high as people believe or that the fact that the Clans have won every session since 4.1 started would have you believe. On a match-to-match basis, the Clans simply aren't dominating... but they ARE dominating the tug-of-war every single time.

And of course, Russ has maintained that the skill differential between Clan and IS units is a primary contributing reason for the Clan tug-of-war dominance. Looking at the actual statistics, you can see this is almost certainly a contributing factor, given that Clan win percentage isn't that high, but most of the top units have been on the Clan side. You can see his argument, though I would stop short of saying this is even a primary cause of the Clan/IS imbalance.

So if you think that PGI is looking at what's happening in FW matches and is seeing massive discrepancies between Clan and IS tech performance... that's not the case at all, or so they say.

#78 ScarecrowES

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 01:02 AM

View PostYeonne Greene, on 21 December 2016 - 12:46 AM, said:

I don't know what the actual global win-rate is. My information is as faulty as whatever has been provided in this thread, because this thread is my source. Like I said earlier, I haven't been paying too much attention to FW until today, when the whinging on both sides reached a head.


Really just need to pay attention to Russ's Twitter feed. He's pretty vocal about what's going on in the background lately.

What he had to say about general Clan/IS balance and why the Clans were performing better:

"Competitiveness is not actually that far off - main aspect is the top 5 units are all Clan."

About FW post-hotfix:

"This first Invasion cycle post hot fix is pretty close to what good looks like. May still go Clans but grinding it with ~57% win rate"

"see sawing through the other game modes longer as hoped but still time to get into Invasion game mode for final hour or two"

I'd have to look for the pre-fix rate numbers... they were buried in a conversation somewhere... but he did mention prior to the patch that recent wins were only going 6-4 for Clan, which suggests around 60%.

Edited by ScarecrowES, 21 December 2016 - 01:08 AM.


#79 Duke Nedo

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 01:44 AM

View PostScarecrowES, on 21 December 2016 - 12:56 AM, said:

I have to laugh here, because this is EXACTLY what PGI is doing. You might want to check out Russ Bullock's Twitter feed. He's telling us exactly what PGI is doing and why. ALL of PGI's balance efforts right now are based around slowing down how quickly the Clans max out their bar. In fact, Russ has been calling it a victory that the bar is not maxxed out right away, and it's been taking a lot longer to get there - thus allowing players to actually play modes OTHER than Invasion. It's not like I'm pulling this out of my ***... this is EXACTLY what they're doing, in their own words. Russ has been saying since the 13th that the Clan win percentages were not that high - not nearly as high as people believe or that the fact that the Clans have won every session since 4.1 started would have you believe. On a match-to-match basis, the Clans simply aren't dominating... but they ARE dominating the tug-of-war every single time. And of course, Russ has maintained that the skill differential between Clan and IS units is a primary contributing reason for the Clan tug-of-war dominance. Looking at the actual statistics, you can see this is almost certainly a contributing factor, given that Clan win percentage isn't that high, but most of the top units have been on the Clan side. You can see his argument, though I would stop short of saying this is even a primary cause of the Clan/IS imbalance. So if you think that PGI is looking at what's happening in FW matches and is seeing massive discrepancies between Clan and IS tech performance... that's not the case at all, or so they say.


Now you're mixing things up. They have not yet made any faction balance changes. They change drop limits in FW, that's a FW mechanic and not faction balance at the level that matters. It's mostly just a quick way to compensate for populations.

All in all, tug-of-war is nothing unique or new. The same kind of polarization happened in the old zone-system as well. The mechanics in that respect are identical. The real change is that there are no longer separate queues for attackers and defenders, which was the whole point with this change. There are differences in how many games you need to turn a planet and winning conditions but that is irrelevant to everything but the star map, which I don't give a flying **** about. The mechanic is the same. It's linear and it's capped at 0% and 100%.

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Posted 21 December 2016 - 01:55 AM

What's people's thoughts after the patch?
Seems in IS' favour at the moment. I just had a match and it was good, IS won but it was well earnt IMO. This was complete pug vs pug on Caustic.

I really enjoyed regardless of it being a loss. Just wished the F-ing Dropship would stay until all enemies are out of site and were armed to the teeth like they should be !!

This will eliminate the main bane, spawn camping.





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