712 replies to this topic

[Duck Laurent]

Have been playing 7 matches since the event started. I didn't get at least one poor incursion match - not even as an option to choose.

PGI plz fix.

[RCore]

Some maths on probabilities, folks:

- Incursion is supported on 9 out of 14 Quickplay maps
= Probability of Incursion map: 9/14

- There are 4 map options in each QP match, and all 4 maps need to support Incursion
= Probability of Incursion on all 4 maps: 9/14 x 8/13 x 7/12 x 6/11 = 0.126

- Incursion is 1 out of 5 possible game modes, and there are 2 game mode choices in each QP match
= Probability of Incursion mode as an option: 1/5 + 1/4 - (1/5 x 1/4) = 0.4

Therefore, probability of all 4 maps supporting Incursion AND that Incursion mode appears is: 0.126 x 0.4 = 0.0504 = 5.04%

This means that 5 matches out of 100 will show Incursion as an option.
This is 1 in 20 matches.

Assuming each game takes 10 mins on average, there can be 6 games per hour.
So, Incursion will appear about once every 3 hours, and there is a 50% chance it is selected.

The odds are against us getting any Incursion games, my fellow Mechwarriors.

Edit: Corrected the math (thanks David Sumner).

Edited by RCore, 22 April 2017 - 09:57 PM.

[Jeronimo25]

The rotation for this map mode is terrible, 6 matches, 0 incursions and i don't have whole day to sit in the game and hopefully wait for it...

[Ery]

We have now 6 game modes. As the voting system started, there were 3... .
The current voting system is outdated.
Bring the old system with direct selection back!

[Valdemaar]

I really wish the Incursion game mode had a higher likelihood of appearance. Been grinding most of the night and I've only destroyed one base building and the Delivery Failed challenge is practically impossible.

[meteorol]

Played on my alt for like 4 hours. Saw incursion twice. Team threw both matches in spectacular fashion.

Decided i can't be bothered to participate in this event.

[Omnibeet]

RCore, on 22 April 2017 - 01:28 AM, said:

Some maths on probabilities, folks:

- Incursion is supported on 9 out of 14 Quickplay maps
= Probability of Incursion map: 0.64

- There are 4 map options in each QP match, and all 4 maps need to support Incursion
= Probability of Incursion on all 4 maps: 0.64 x 0.64 x 0.64 x 0.64 = 0.167

- Incursion is 1 out of 5 possible game modes, and there are 2 game mode choices in each QP match
= Probability of Incursion mode as an option: 2 / 5 = 0.4

Therefore, probably of all 4 maps supporting Incursion AND that Incursion mode appears is: 0.167 x 0.4 = 0.0668 = 6.68%

This means that 6.68 matches out of 100 will show Incursion as an option. 100/6.68 = about 15.
This is about 1 in 15 matches.

Assuming each game takes 10 mins on average, there can be 6 games per hour.
So, Incursion will appear about once every 2.5 hours, and there is a 50% chance it is selected.

The odds are against us getting any Incursion games, my fellow Mechwarriors.

Wow, RNGesus must hate me. I need the fuel cell objectives so i decide to play my mediums, no incursions in 6 attempts.
Give up and play assaults for 3 matches, 3 incursions.
Think my luck might be changing, go back to mediums, no incursion.
Give up on completing event and go back to levelling up my atlas, 2 matches, 2 incursions.
Rethink my decisions, go back to medium, no incursions...

Moral of the story is i'm probably going to get hit by a bus while sleeping tonight lol

[kutkip]

It seems to me the "Delivery Failed" objective is almost impossible to complete, what do you guys think about this?

I get plenty incursion games though.

[Aramuside]

An entire morning playing and just 2 incursions... 1 I was ping spiking from 500-1200 so useless to my team (sorted by rebooting client... thanks PGI...) and the other our team spread all over and I was gang banged by three assaults and a rifleman. At least I gave people lots of Roughneck kills.....

[Ery]

"Delivery Failed" is the greatest bullshXX ever.
Either you can not find anyone with a cell or the kill will be stolen. Or or...
Make it an assist or better remove the hole shXX from the event...

[kutkip]

Ery, on 22 April 2017 - 03:58 AM, said:

"Delivery Failed" is the greatest bullshXX ever.
Either you can not find anyone with a cell or the kill will be stolen. Or or...
Make it an assist or better remove the hole shXX from the event...

I got all challenges except for this one so long ago.. this is so stupid!

How are you supposed to chase a locust running to his team??

Edited by kutkip, 22 April 2017 - 04:05 AM.

[D V Devnull]

kutkip, on 22 April 2017 - 03:11 AM, said:

It seems to me the "Delivery Failed" objective is almost impossible to complete, what do you guys think about this?

Agreed. They should have allowed KMDD, Kill Assist, AND Narc/Tag Kill to all qualify for that as well. As it stands, that one will likely block me from finishing the Event.

~D. V. "Talk about a challenge that was NOT thought out..." Devnull

[Dran Dragore]

since yesterday really rare Option for getting a Incursion and even more Rare to get a Battery Carrier. Well, this will not happen to me it looks like...

[David Sumner]

RCore, on 22 April 2017 - 01:28 AM, said:

Some maths on probabilities, folks:

- Incursion is supported on 9 out of 14 Quickplay maps
= Probability of Incursion map: 0.64

- There are 4 map options in each QP match, and all 4 maps need to support Incursion
= Probability of Incursion on all 4 maps: 0.64 x 0.64 x 0.64 x 0.64 = 0.167

- Incursion is 1 out of 5 possible game modes, and there are 2 game mode choices in each QP match
= Probability of Incursion mode as an option: 2 / 5 = 0.4

Therefore, probability of all 4 maps supporting Incursion AND that Incursion mode appears is: 0.167 x 0.4 = 0.0668 = 6.68%

This means that 6.68 matches out of 100 will show Incursion as an option. 100/6.68 = about 15.
This is about 1 in 15 matches.

Assuming each game takes 10 mins on average, there can be 6 games per hour.
So, Incursion will appear about once every 2.5 hours, and there is a 50% chance it is selected.

The odds are against us getting any Incursion games, my fellow Mechwarriors.

Not quite, after each suggestion you have to change the ratios

9:14 -> Y
8:13 -> Y
7:12 -> Y
6:11 -> Y
0.64 x 0.615 x 0.58 x 0.55 = 12.5% 1/8

4:5 -> Y
3:4 -> Y
0.8 x 0.75 = 0.6
1 - 0.6 = 0.4 = 40% chance of incursion if the maps allow it
= 0.05 or ~5% change or 1 match in 20.

[Doktorbike]

I must have gotten lucky with this one! only need to collect & deliver 2 more fuel cells & to destroy 1 more base component. I got lucky & for others I know it was the exact opposite. If you want to get the delivery failed may I suggest using a fast, hard hitting medium or light, get to the dispenser asap & wait for the enemy to collect. Then chase him down with red eyed fury until you kill him. That's how I did it.

[- Pestilence -]

This is the most frustrating event ive seen so far. Incursion too is rare, many ppl vote against it so pls at least change the Delivery challenge to Kill/KMDD/Assist.

Edited by - Pestilence -, 22 April 2017 - 04:53 AM.

[Aramuside]

Lol third incursion ends in a tie with a no ammo streak stormcrow and an almost dead Kodiak unable to catch it as it just ran and ran and ran....

Edited by Aramuside, 22 April 2017 - 05:07 AM.

[SaintLucifer]

How about you guys just change the "Delivery Failed" to also KMD please? (Or even better and just remove it completely)

[David Sumner]

Actually, I'm seeing MUCH higher than 1:20 now

[Aramuside]

David Sumner, on 22 April 2017 - 04:56 AM, said:

Actually, I'm seeing MUCH higher than 1:20 now

Yeah suddenly had 3 in a row so wonder if they hot changed it. Good call if so PGI - much appreciated.