40 replies to this topic

[El Bandito]

That's the cumulative number of wins multiplied by number of participants. So the actual win difference so far is about 5.5:4.5 to Clan advantage. Ignore the 97% bar.

*edit* Can anyone confirm that the numbers include Scouting or not?

Edited by El Bandito, 07 May 2017 - 07:55 AM.

[Pixel Hunter]

thats still a pretty big departure from the 50/50 win split you would expect if things were balanced. sure, there shpould be some deviation from the norm, but with so many mathes played you would expect something close to 50/50...the clan is winning by some 7,000 odd matches...and thats multiplied by number of participants.

[Juodas Varnas]

Well... That's like a 20% difference in wins.
.
.
.
Still a massive difference.

[Nighthawk513]

Juodas Varnas, on 07 May 2017 - 07:39 AM, said:

Well... That's like a 20% difference in wins.

Actually, that's a 55% clan win rate. So 5% difference.

Technically 54.97070585% before my calculator ran out of numbers, but nobody cares.

[Juodas Varnas]

Nighthawk513, on 07 May 2017 - 07:44 AM, said:

Actually, that's a 55% clan win rate. So 5% difference.

Technically 54.97070585% before my calculator ran out of numbers, but nobody cares.

41377 / 33894 x 100% = ~122.1%

Math is not my strong suit though.

Edited by Juodas Varnas, 07 May 2017 - 07:48 AM.

[El Bandito]

Nighthawk513, on 07 May 2017 - 07:44 AM, said:

Actually, that's a 55% clan win rate. So 5% difference.

Technically 54.97070585% before my calculator ran out of numbers, but nobody cares.

More than 5% difference, mate. Cause IS is less than 50%.

Gimpy117, on 07 May 2017 - 07:34 AM, said:

thats still a pretty big departure from the 50/50 win split you would expect if things were balanced. sure, there shpould be some deviation from the norm, but with so many mathes played you would expect something close to 50/50...the clan is winning by some 7,000 odd matches...and thats multiplied by number of participants.

Yes, that is what I meant.

Edited by El Bandito, 07 May 2017 - 07:54 AM.

[Nighthawk513]

41,377 + 33,894 = 75,271 total points.
41,377 / 75,271 = .5497070585 % clan wins
33,894 / 75271 = .4502929415 % IS wins
.5497070585 + 450292415 = 1
There is the math. Have fun.

[invernomuto]

El Bandito, on 07 May 2017 - 07:12 AM, said:

That's the cumulative number of wins multiplied by number of participants. So the actual win difference so far is about 5.5:4.5 to Clan advantage. Ignore the 97% bar.

*edit* Can anyone confirm that the numbers include Scouting or not?

Excuse me, where do you get that numbers?

Edited by invernomuto, 07 May 2017 - 07:57 AM.

[Nighthawk513]

Also, I am nearly certain they include scouting, which has been back and forth a lot for both factions. So the invasion stats may be significantly different.
However, note that Smoke jag has MJ12 and other Mercs on their leaderboard, and they have almost half the clan points.

[Lily from animove]

Gimpy117, on 07 May 2017 - 07:34 AM, said:

thats still a pretty big departure from the 50/50 win split you would expect if things were balanced. sure, there shpould be some deviation from the norm, but with so many mathes played you would expect something close to 50/50...the clan is winning by some 7,000 odd matches...and thats multiplied by number of participants.

not that big, at least not balance related that much, played on my IS account too, it's sad what you see that people DO. and if you wann achieve 50:50 you need to balance peoples mind, which you never will be able to.

Edited by Lily from animove, 07 May 2017 - 08:00 AM.

[MerryIguana]

Nighthawk513, on 07 May 2017 - 07:44 AM, said:

Actually, that's a 55% clan win rate. So 5% difference.

Technically 54.97070585% before my calculator ran out of numbers, but nobody cares.

Wouldnt that be a 10% difference? 55 - 45 = ?

[El Bandito]

invernomuto, on 07 May 2017 - 07:56 AM, said:

Excuse me, where do you get that numbers?

https://mwomercs.com/tournaments

[Nighthawk513]

Nope. 5% difference either way from 50%.

Edit for clarity: If one side wins 5% more matches, the other side has to lose those matches.

Edited by Nighthawk513, 07 May 2017 - 08:09 AM.

[Andi Nagasia]

Gimpy117, on 07 May 2017 - 07:34 AM, said:

thats still a pretty big departure from the 50/50 win split you would expect if things were balanced. sure, there shpould be some deviation from the norm, but with so many mathes played you would expect something close to 50/50...the clan is winning by some 7,000 odd matches...and thats multiplied by number of participants.

true but theirs still that small margin for error,
flipping a Coin 1000 times i doubt you will get a perfect 50/50 split,
(assuming of course the Coin doesnt have 2 Heads-sides )

[Tarogato]

Nighthawk513, on 07 May 2017 - 07:44 AM, said:

Actually, that's a 55% clan win rate. So 5% difference.

Technically 54.97070585% before my calculator ran out of numbers, but nobody cares.

55:45 ... wouldn't that be a 10% difference? =P

Although, if the numbers in the topic title are correct, then Clans are winning 22% more?

That's not ... insignificant.

[Andi Nagasia]

Tarogato, on 07 May 2017 - 08:17 AM, said:

55:45 ... wouldn't that be a 10% difference? =P

Although, if the numbers in the topic title are correct, then Clans are winning 22% more?

That's not ... insignificant.

but they arnt winning 22% more, its only 5%ish more,
Clan is Winning by 5%(55%) and IS is losing by 5%(45%)
its a close margin considering the Margin for Error,
(see Post about Coin Averages Above)

[Juodas Varnas]

Andi Nagasia, on 07 May 2017 - 08:21 AM, said:

but they arnt winning 22% more, its only 5%ish more,
Clan is Winning by 5%(55%) and IS is losing by 5%(45%)
its a close margin considering the Margin for Error,
(see Post about Coin Averages Above)

I'm pretty sure that's not how statistics work.

Also, if you throw 1000 coins, it will actually be very close to 50/50.
The more coins you throw, the closer it will be.

[Andi Nagasia]

Juodas Varnas, on 07 May 2017 - 08:24 AM, said:

I'm pretty sure that's not how statistics work.

Also, if you throw 1000 coins, it will actually be very close to 50/50.
The more coins you throw, the closer it will be.

well last Tuk2 i believe was 56-44, so we are moving closer to balance,
also we cant know where the Merc Units are stationed right now(IS/Clan)
those would throw off the numbers alittle as well,

True, but i was noting the margin for error that exists,
with that, 50/50 is possible, but its unlikely to get perfect 50/50,
thats all i was saying,

Edited by Andi Nagasia, 07 May 2017 - 08:28 AM.

[Ade the Rare]

Nighthawk513, on 07 May 2017 - 07:53 AM, said:

41,377 + 33,894 = 75,271 total points.
41,377 / 75,271 = .5497070585 % clan wins
33,894 / 75271 = .4502929415 % IS wins
.5497070585 + 450292415 = 1
There is the math. Have fun.

Nighthawk513, on 07 May 2017 - 07:44 AM, said:

Actually, that's a 55% clan win rate. So 5% difference.

Technically 54.97070585% before my calculator ran out of numbers, but nobody cares.

So, we're talking about how far away we are from 50/50 even odds right?

In which case, we're talking about the difference from half the total number, not the whole.

75,271 / 2 = 37,635.5

For Clan:

41337 / 37,635.5 = 1.099 x 100 = 110%, so Clan over-performs by 10%, not 5%.


As for scouting, I stopped playing for over half a year because of how unbalanced FW events are. Since the start of this event, I've done all the scout ones, and I have to say I've been impressed with how even it seems now. Did they reduce the drop weight for Clan or something? I haven't seen a single Streakcrow in any of the games I've played...

[Tarogato]

Andi Nagasia, on 07 May 2017 - 08:21 AM, said:

but they arnt winning 22% more, its only 5%ish more,

41377 is 22% more wins than 33894...

Clans are winning by about 5%.
IS is losing by about 5%.

There is a 10% differential in the ratio there. 55 - 45 = 10.


But hey, I'm a math noob anyways.