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Skill Tree Economics: A Comparison


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#1 Nightmare1

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 08:26 AM

Intro:

I've been discussing the economics of the New Skill Tree with several people on the Steam and MWO forums. I thought I would compile the main posts here for everyone and see what y'all think.


Simple, Direct Comparison for Single Mech Mastery:

First up, the simple, direct comparison of XP and C-bills for Mastering a single Mech:

New system:
C-Bills required to Master 91 nodes = 4,095,000
XP required to Master 91 nodes = 72,800

Old system:
XP required to Master 13 nodes = 57,250
XP required to Basic two other Mechs so that you could Master your one Mech = 28,500
Total XP required to Master one Mech = 85,750
MC required if using all GXP = 3,430 (if not done on a GXP Conversion sale)

Under the old system, at a cost of 25 GXP per 1 MC (not during GXP conversion sale) it would cost you $22 or about 9 hours to Master one Mech, depending on whether you did a straight MC/GXP conversion or if you ground it all. Under the new system, it will require about 4 hours to grind it all out, or $15 to do it with an MC/GXP conversion (not during GXP conversion sale).

This also ignores the cost of modules, which would average between 21 million and 24 million C-bills for each Mastered Mech. Your true cost under the old system, if a player were to fully skill out a Mech with modules included, would be 85,750 XP and 63 million C-bills (assuming the 21 million figure). This does not include GXP needed to unlock the modules, by the way. The 63 million C-bills includes 21 million for 5 modules and 42 Million for three Mechs (13 million a piece for purchase and kitting).

The cost to unlock two Mech Modules is about 30,000 GXP, while the cost to unlock three weapon modules is about 10,500 GXP, for a grand total of 40,500 GXP (assuming the 21 million C-bill figure for 2x Mech Modules and 3x Weapon Modules). I haven't calculated the time necessary to grind that much GXP, but I know it would cost 1,620 MC, or about $14 (25:1 conversion rate).

Note: This is all written while ignoring part of the Rule of Three. Remember, for your very first Mech that you Master for EACH weight class, you need to Elite two extra variants. It's a one-time deal for each weight class, but it was required for new players under the old tree. This means that they would have to Elite three Mechs in order to Master their very first one at an additional cost of 43,000 XP that isn't even included in my calculations above. That makes the old tree extra difficult for new players who are resource-challenged.

My calculations are based on the assumption of the minimum. In other words, these are the minimum costs that shall be incurred.


Mastering 3 Mechs Under Both Systems:

Let's face it though, most players didn't keep all three variants under the old system. A few, such a myself, do keep every variant, but most get the one they want Mastered and then sell off the extras. My above estimation takes this into account, while the one below does not. Instead, it focuses on the cost if someone wanted to fully Master three Mechs total.

Let's say that someone wanted to Master all three variants under both systems. It would look like this:

New System:
C-bills required to Master 3 Mechs = 12,285,000
XP required to Master 3 Mechs = 218,400

Old System:
C-bills required to Master 3 Mechs (Module cost for three Mechs) = 63,000,000 (2x Mech Modules and 3x Weapon modules)
XP required to Master 3 Mechs = 171,750
GXP required (for above modules) = 40,500
XP and GXP combined = 212,250 (just for the sake of comparison)


Unlocking Every Node Compared to Old System:

Now, what if I wanted to unlock every node on my Mech? How would that stack up against the old system? We'll compare this on a 1:1 basis between both skill systems. We'll use one Mech with all nodes unlocked under the New System, and compare it to one Mech with shared modules under the Old System.

First off are the base numbers upon which we will build.

New system:
C-Bills required to Master 91 nodes = 4,095,000
XP required to Master 91 nodes = 72,800

Old system:
XP required to Master 13 nodes = 57,250
XP required to Basic two other Mechs so that you could Master one Mech = 28,500
Total XP required to Master one Mech = 85,750
MC required if using all GXP = 3,430 (if not done on a GXP Conversion sale)
C-bills required for modules for one Mech (Note: This does not include the cost of purchasing three Mechs for leveling purposes) = Between 21 - 24 million C-bills

Modules can be re-used, so let's assume 30 Mechs' worth of modules per 100 Mechs. We'll also assume the smaller figure of 21 million C-bills to be conservative.

That means it's (21 million C-bills x 30 Mechs)/100 Mechs = 6.3 million C-bills/Mech

Total cost to Master one Mech under the old system:
Total XP required to Master one Mech = 85,750
C-bills required for modules = 6.3 million (from the average above)
C-bills required for all three Mechs = 36 million (assuming 12 million per Mech for purchased and kitting)
Total C-bill cost for one Mech's Mastery = 42.3 million

Now, let's buy out every node (237 total) on the New Skill Tree. That would be a grand total of 189,600 XP and 10,665,000 C-bills. That would require 10 hours of grinding for the C-bills and 20.5 hours of grinding for the XP. Since you can earn C-bills and XP concurrently, that means that 20.5 hours would be the max time.

Under the old system, you would need 40 hours to grind the C-bills and 9 hours to grind the XP. Since you can earn C-bills and XP concurrently, that means that 40 hours would be the max time.

Hence, even if you purchased all 237 nodes, it still requires only half the time to actually grind the resources than it does to purchase three Mechs, Master one, Basic two, buy 2 Mech Modules, and buy 3 Weapon Modules that it did under the old system.

Now, under the old system, I only had 10 Mechs kitted out at once, but I actually had enough modules to fully kit out nearly 40 Mechs. I just kept them in my inventory so that I wouldn't have to play the module mini-game. We'll consider the 10 Mechs' worth of modules as the "minimum" number and use it in a few minutes.

As for how many modules a person owns, most of the people I've spoken with over the years have enough for 10 Mechs as their minimum, while many have enough modules for every Mech. In my experience, 30 Mechs' worth of modules per 100 Mechs is a rough average for the frugal MechWarrior though.

Even if we cut the previous module numbers in half (from 30 Mechs' worth down to 15), you wind up with 3.15 million C-bills per Mech, which is less than a million short of a fully Mastered Mech in the new Skill Tree. The new numbers would be:

Total cost to Master one Mech under the old system:
Total XP required to Master one Mech = 85,750
C-bills required for modules = 3.15 million
C-bills required for all three Mechs = 36 million (assuming 12 million per Mech
Total C-bill cost for one Mech's Mastery = 39.15 million

You would still need 9 hours for the XP, while the time to grind the C-bills would drop to 37 hours. Even allowing for this, it's still only 3 hours short of needing 2x the amount of time as the New Skill Tree.

If we use the minimum (10 Mechs' worth) which at 2.1 million C-bills per chassis (average module cost), the overall hours only drop by one down to 36 hours total. That's still 1.8x the amount of time needed for the New Skill Tree if you decided to purchase every single node.

The spreadsheet I used for calculations:

https://docs.google....dit?usp=sharing


Thoughts?

Edited by Nightmare1, 21 May 2017 - 08:28 AM.


#2 cazidin

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 09:36 AM

You forgot one very important factor.

PGI can now sell standalone mechs and offers fewer incentives for those packs. Posted Image

#3 Champion of Khorne Lord of Blood

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 09:39 AM

View Postcazidin, on 21 May 2017 - 09:36 AM, said:

You forgot one very important factor.

PGI can now sell standalone mechs and offers fewer incentives for those packs. Posted Image


But they may also sell those stand alone mechs at a cheaper value than the 20 dollar 3 packs. If I could have bought just a Kodiak-3 without wasting my time with the KDK-1 and KDK-2 then I would have. Maybe then we'll actually get as close to micro transactions in buying mechs as we ever have before.

#4 cazidin

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 09:41 AM

View PostDakota1000, on 21 May 2017 - 09:39 AM, said:


But they may also sell those stand alone mechs at a cheaper value than the 20 dollar 3 packs. If I could have bought just a Kodiak-3 without wasting my time with the KDK-1 and KDK-2 then I would have. Maybe then we'll actually get as close to micro transactions in buying mechs as we ever have before.


They may, but I'm looking at this from a more pragmatic business perspective. They'd more likely just add another million or two c-bills for the extra $ than lower the cost, except for rotating sales.

#5 Champion of Khorne Lord of Blood

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 09:51 AM

View Postcazidin, on 21 May 2017 - 09:41 AM, said:


They may, but I'm looking at this from a more pragmatic business perspective. They'd more likely just add another million or two c-bills for the extra $ than lower the cost, except for rotating sales.


If they're selling 1 mech at $20 and also selling 3 mechs at $20 then they better come with around a 40 million cbill boost to make up for the worth of just selling the 2 extra mechs you'd get in the first place.

Better yet just sell one mech for $5, give a day or a week of premium time with it, throw in a mechbay for it to go in and you have a reasonable mechpack.

Once you get down to $5 you get to the point where people ask if they'd want this or some cheap pizza, which really increases sales.

#6 cazidin

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 10:00 AM

View PostDakota1000, on 21 May 2017 - 09:51 AM, said:


If they're selling 1 mech at $20 and also selling 3 mechs at $20 then they better come with around a 40 million cbill boost to make up for the worth of just selling the 2 extra mechs you'd get in the first place.

Better yet just sell one mech for $5, give a day or a week of premium time with it, throw in a mechbay for it to go in and you have a reasonable mechpack.

Once you get down to $5 you get to the point where people ask if they'd want this or some cheap pizza, which really increases sales.


You're generally right but this is still a small game. The amount of sales they'd generate wouldn't recoup the loss from going that low and again, I doubt that they'll lower the price significantly.

#7 Nightmare1

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 10:41 AM

View Postcazidin, on 21 May 2017 - 09:36 AM, said:

You forgot one very important factor.

PGI can now sell standalone mechs and offers fewer incentives for those packs. Posted Image


Lol, I wasn't even considering all that. I was completely focused on the grind to Mastery. :lol:





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