49 replies to this topic

[Natred]

Some of these players prolly used alt accounts at once and decieded to stick with a main.

[Mechwarrior4670152]

Natred, on 07 July 2017 - 12:45 PM, said:

Some of these players prolly used alt accounts at once and decieded to stick with a main.

A distinct possibility.
But one that the haters are quick to dismiss.
After all, it doesn't support their point of view

I have 4 accounts, but usually only play on one of them.

[Jman5]

RussianWolf, on 07 July 2017 - 12:24 PM, said:

Not sure why you would think July will be bigger. Most of the player base, from what I've gathered, is later 30's to early 50's. July is prime time to take the kids on vacation and not be around a computer. More vacations during this time than in December. So I'd wager on a continuation of the slide in July. We'll see for sure next month.

I said why I think July might be bigger. Because that is the trend that happened last year. June had a huge slump in playerbase, July had a rebound.

[Revis Volek]

Johnny Z, on 06 July 2017 - 06:03 PM, said:

Noticed at least a couple topics about tier one gameplay and the quality of players lately. Yes tier 1 has been trolled heavily lately.

What does this even mean?

SQW, on 06 July 2017 - 06:59 PM, said:

Not really. Only the LFE has any real impact on gameplay on the IS side and a minor one at that. Yes, it will make existing players play a bit more for a short time but it will do little to bring back old players or attract new ones. Think about it, people didn't leave MWO because they can't make their IS mechs work with STD or XL engine and they certainly wouldn't be coming back because their old chassis is now a bit more survivable.

As long as the core game play remains the boring lobby shooter on tiny maps, MWO will continue to lose players.

So all these new weapons (for the IS too) arent going to change anything? Light and heavy gauss? New ppcs? Micro lasers for the clan? Heavy MG's?!?!


You are putting a lot more weight into the LFE then most i think, its not gonna be a savior to all and every IS mech. Certain mechs may be able to make use of LFE but its not a straight upgrade over STD or XL on every mech across the board.

New weapons, new metas, Stronger IS alphas are all welcome and something you will see. Now if PGI just gets the heat scales right so those giant 3 slot DHS arent stones being thrown into a ocean (of heat).

People leave the game for many different reasons, You can make claims as to why people quit but i can assure you not making there XL mech work is very, very low on that totem pole you are correct. But the game is what it is, its an arena shooter, no one ever said it was gonna be more then that and im not really sure where you ever got that idea? PGI isnt exactly dreaming big these days.

Edited by Revis Volek, 07 July 2017 - 03:46 PM.

[vandalhooch]

RussianWolf, on 06 July 2017 - 07:30 PM, said:

Just looking at season 6 through 12... almost a 25% drop in 6 months. That's.... not..... good.

Nice cherry picking. That's the same fallacy climate change deniers used to claim there was a "pause" in global warming since 1998.

[RussianWolf]

Jman5, on 07 July 2017 - 02:17 PM, said:

I said why I think July might be bigger. Because that is the trend that happened last year. June had a huge slump in playerbase, July had a rebound.

with no real data. Just the word of Russ, who has reason to string everyone along for as long as possible.

[RussianWolf]

vandalhooch, on 07 July 2017 - 05:07 PM, said:

Nice cherry picking. That's the same fallacy climate change deniers used to claim there was a "pause" in global warming since 1998.

i also said if you look at the entire data stream we have, its still better than a 20% drop in 11 months. That is not an insignificant number. I'm using the data we have, not some guesses about unreleased data from 2012-2016 that we can't prove.

And you seem to be the denying what the data shows.

[vandalhooch]

RussianWolf, on 07 July 2017 - 08:09 PM, said:

i also said if you look at the entire data stream we have, its still better than a 20% drop in 11 months.

That's not what you started with. You started with the cherry picked fallacy.

Quote

That is not an insignificant number.

Really? Did you do anything besides take the starting and ending values and subtract them?

I did. The Pearson correlation coefficient is -0.69 with a R squared value of 0.47. That's not a particularly large R squared value. There is a negative trend but only roughly 47% of the variance can be explained by a decrease in population size over time.

Quote

I'm using the data we have, not some guesses about unreleased data from 2012-2016 that we can't prove.

And you seem to be the denying what the data shows.

Whatever.

[Gwei Loong]

The population is not growing, we all know that. I'd be interested to see what time zones people are playing in. If we lose enough people from one region its like a house of cards. I think this is why PGI wants to move the servers. So that they can try and save the region by marketing better pings but I am not sure where things stand.
MWO is not popular in Asia, not even in the slightest. That's interesting because E-Sports in huge here. So how can you try and compete as an e-sports title without one of the worlds largest contributors to it?
You have no idea how big Overwatch is and you say this community is better but you have never played with the Chinese speaking players. There is a language barrier but once your over that it's like two different worlds. I'll just leave it at that.
I wish MWO did better then it is. I like the mechs and the game but it needs to expand to larger game modes with zones and more maps, I just don't see that happening. Lets face it, producing a game that has all this cost lots of money. I think it's very hard for an indie title to compete these days.
Just stick around for a year and you won't have to ask if the population is getting lower, we can just look back and see if it was.

[Burke IV]

vandalhooch, on 07 July 2017 - 05:07 PM, said:

Nice cherry picking. That's the same fallacy climate change deniers used to claim there was a "pause" in global warming since 1998.

You know the same experts that talk about climate change told us that the world was in danger of slipping into a new ice age in the 1970s right? They told everybody that the production of greenhouse gas was vital to humanitys survival. Yeah... climate change. Cause global warming sounded good in light of previous bs but in time was found to be a poor choice of words

[vandalhooch]

Burke IV, on 08 July 2017 - 02:07 AM, said:

You know the same experts that talk about climate change told us that the world was in danger of slipping into a new ice age in the 1970s right? They told everybody that the production of greenhouse gas was vital to humanitys survival. Yeah... climate change. Cause global warming sounded good in light of previous bs but in time was found to be a poor choice of words

Please go learn some actual science and actual history.

Edit: Last time as the topic is not relevant to this forum - What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970's?

Edited by vandalhooch, 08 July 2017 - 02:29 AM.

[Burke IV]

I was there at the time i can rememeber that being said on tv

Edit: i realise that time cover is fake now, but yeah it happened

Edited by Burke IV, 08 July 2017 - 02:30 AM.

[Dee Eight]

KodiakGW, on 06 July 2017 - 04:58 PM, said:

2K dip from season 11 to 12. Hmmm...I wonder what happened then....

A large # of significant holidays when it comes to family obligations. Father's day for starters. Then for quebecers we had the 24th of june weekend. Canada Day fell on the following saturday (and so people took early vacations starting a couple days beforehand since the following monday automatically becomes a government & banking holiday).

[Dee Eight]

Burke IV, on 08 July 2017 - 02:21 AM, said:

I was there at the time i can rememeber that being said on tv

Edit: i realise that time cover is fake now, but yeah it happened

I was there too... i remember the majority were talking about warming already. Hell I was living it as our winters got milder her in Ottawa, and we got generally LESS snowfall.

[Dee Eight]

Jman5, on 06 July 2017 - 06:04 PM, said:

What we do see from the numbers is that major feature releases do bring in more people. So July might see some decent numbers with the new tech coming.

You also see that "seasons" which have more days in the month get better #s generally. June had 30, May had 31. If you figure an average of just over 1k more accounts passing the 10 match point each day, then that pretty much makes up the difference between may and june.

[ScrapIron Prime]

vandalhooch, on 07 July 2017 - 11:52 PM, said:

Really? Did you do anything besides take the starting and ending values and subtract them?

I did. The Pearson correlation coefficient is -0.69 with a R squared value of 0.47. That's not a particularly large R squared value. There is a negative trend but only roughly 47% of the variance can be explained by a decrease in population size over time.

Aaaaand and statistical analysis just showed up. Integers just got real, yo. =)

Statisticians are like lawyers. Once one side has one, the other better match it or go home. =)

[ScrapIron Prime]

Burke IV, on 08 July 2017 - 02:07 AM, said:

You know the same experts that talk about climate change told us that the world was in danger of slipping into a new ice age in the 1970s right? They told everybody that the production of greenhouse gas was vital to humanitys survival. Yeah... climate change. Cause global warming sounded good in light of previous bs but in time was found to be a poor choice of words

Don't buy the hype. ONE guy was paid by the US department of energy in the 1970's to do a theoretical paper on minimization of Nuclear Winter with the aim of making a global thermonuclear conflict more available as a strategy. A poorly sourced three paragraph section is the root of this whole nonsense.

Can we get back to arguing over how the player base is shrinking, please?

[Jman5]

RussianWolf, on 07 July 2017 - 08:04 PM, said:

with no real data. Just the word of Russ, who has reason to string everyone along for as long as possible.

You seem to have trouble following what I'm saying.

I'm going to repeat myself.

Again.

This time with even more clarity.

According to the steam charts, WHICH HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH RUSS, June 2016 saw a large drop in player activity. Afterwards, July 2016 saw positive gains. ON A DIFFERENT NOTE, Russ has said that they get a player drop every year around the same time. This is why based on the TWO things I mentioned that I think there is a fair chance July numbers will be larger than June numbers.

Dee Eight, on 08 July 2017 - 03:32 AM, said:

You also see that "seasons" which have more days in the month get better #s generally. June had 30, May had 31. If you figure an average of just over 1k more accounts passing the 10 match point each day, then that pretty much makes up the difference between may and june.

That's a good point I hadn't thought about.

Edited by Jman5, 08 July 2017 - 07:29 AM.

[RussianWolf]

Jman5, on 08 July 2017 - 07:08 AM, said:

You seem to have trouble following what I'm saying.

I'm going to repeat myself.

Again.

This time with even more clarity.

According to the steam charts, WHICH HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH RUSS, June 2016 saw a large drop in player activity. Afterwards, July 2016 saw positive gains. ON A DIFFERENT NOTE, Russ has said that they get a player drop every year around the same time. This is why based on the TWO things I mentioned that I think there is a fair chance July numbers will be larger than June numbers.



That's a good point I hadn't thought about.

Sorry, not seeing much of a correlation between the two sets of data (plotted the percentage changes of Steam Avg., Steam Peak, and your MWO numbers, the line crisscross all over the place with no decernable pattern). So I don't know how you can use one to extrapolate the other. I sure wouldn't trust them to make predictions.

I think the issue is that, from my understanding, Steam players are more overall gamers and some non-steam people playing MWO only play MWO. I know for instance that I was only playing MWO (and occasionally ED) but I haven't played anything in nearly a year.

All that being said, With the exception of the spike in December (which the steam numbers don't really show), the population shows a fairly steady decline.

[RussianWolf]

vandalhooch, on 07 July 2017 - 11:52 PM, said:

That's not what you started with. You started with the cherry picked fallacy.



Really? Did you do anything besides take the starting and ending values and subtract them?

I did. The Pearson correlation coefficient is -0.69 with a R squared value of 0.47. That's not a particularly large R squared value. There is a negative trend but only roughly 47% of the variance can be explained by a decrease in population size over time.



Whatever.

Won't bother checking your math. It's been better than 20 years since I took my one and only Stats course, but I did ace it at the time. Just don't have much need for it in my job.

So you have a decreasing trend that you can only explain roughly half the variance with a decrease in population. So the 20% overall drop indicates that 10% is a result of a decrease of population. Since anything over 5% is generally considered a significant percentage. I think you may have confirmed what I said. That MWO has a significant drop in population over either scale. (by the way, I "cherry picked" the first numbers since they were the most recent 6 months and all the data for 2017, You know we accountants usually confine things to a given year, right?)