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Matchmaker Tinfoil Hat Time


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#1 UnofficialOperator

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 05:33 AM

Ok so what if some of these conspiracy theorists on the matchmaker was right? What if the matchmaker really did put 1 team as overwhelming favorites? How is it able to do this and why? Is it malicious or simply unintentional incompetence?

So my theory is that the matchmaker simply puts you into the lobby based on how fast you can render the lobby. Therefore faster PCs would have an advantage.

Faster PCs = faster fps = better combat = WIN!

(I am very certain that current pilots with only 30 fps have very bad stats through no fault of their own. My stats vary especially widely when I stream the game or not.)

So the faster PCs usually aggregate on 1 side. Those who are good pilots but are on the other side probably came in late from choosing the map.

Anecdotal but what I find is that the faster PCs will usually load into the "better" side of the map. I have consistently not gotten the weaker side of the maps for quite some time now.

So unless you have a high WLR (like 2.0 and above) proving that you are really a difference maker, those hovering around the 1 WLR mark (whether it is 1.1 or 0.9) probably are there due to no fault/merit of their own.

#2 Grus

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 05:41 AM

Listen, if i can get to where im at stats wise with 25-35 fps per game then there is no excuse.. on that aspect atlest.

#3 FRAGTAST1C

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 05:42 AM

Posted Image So theory. Much conspiracy.

#4 justcallme A S H

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:02 AM

Wow... Better PC gets on Team 1?

Given I had a potato PC load time until rebuild earlier this year and it made no difference...

#5 El Bandito

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:11 AM

View PostUnofficialOperator, on 27 November 2018 - 05:33 AM, said:

Ok so what if some of these conspiracy theorists on the matchmaker was right? What if the matchmaker really did put 1 team as overwhelming favorites? How is it able to do this and why? Is it malicious or simply unintentional incompetence?


The MM potentially builds one team first, and then tries to fill out the second team with whoever that is left, but thanks to MWO's low population it cannot find enough eligible players thus loosens the valve and brings in lower tier players to the second team. Which causes imbalance in average skill level among the two teams.

When it comes to PGI, it is usually correct to attribute their faults to stupidity rather than maliciousness.

Edited by El Bandito, 27 November 2018 - 06:13 AM.


#6 Appogee

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:13 AM

I have a great PC ... and last Season I got the 'potato team' so many times that my win:loss was actually less than 1 for the first time in my 26 Season life.

So, sorry, your theory doesn't stack up.

Matchmaking is bad simply due to garbage-in-garbage-out. The matchmaker uses PSR Tiers to create teams. But the PSR Tiers are meaningless, because they are significantly weighted to increase over time. Even below-average pilots end up in Tier 1.

Which is where we are now. Tier 1 is bloated with pilots who aren't actually very good at the game.

#7 UnofficialOperator

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:15 AM

View Postjustcallme A S H, on 27 November 2018 - 06:02 AM, said:

Wow... Better PC gets on Team 1?

Given I had a potato PC load time until rebuild earlier this year and it made no difference...


Oceanic servers and off peak NA servers don't count because all potatos.

Come at me Aussies

#8 UnofficialOperator

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:19 AM

View PostAppogee, on 27 November 2018 - 06:13 AM, said:

I have a great PC ... and last Season I got the 'potato team' so many times that my win:loss was actually less than 1 for the first time in my 26 Season life.

So, sorry, your theory doesn't stack up.

Matchmaking is bad simply due to garbage-in-garbage-out. The matchmaker uses PSR Tiers to create teams. But the PSR Tiers are meaningless, because they are significantly weighted to increase over time. Even below-average pilots end up in Tier 1.

Which is where we are now. Tier 1 is bloated with pilots who aren't actually very good at the game.


Extenuating factors and probably due to your change in playstyle. The first season when you went all in Lights? You should go back to your old playstyle. (Lights can only affect matches for WLR only if they kill the stragglers fast in the first 2 mins. Otherwise Heavies and Assaults have the most impact on matches)

View PostEl Bandito, on 27 November 2018 - 06:11 AM, said:


The MM potentially builds one team first, and then tries to fill out the second team with whoever that is left, but thanks to MWO's low population it cannot find enough eligible players thus loosens the valve and brings in lower tier players to the second team. Which causes imbalance in average skill level among the two teams.

When it comes to PGI, it is usually correct to attribute their faults to stupidity rather than maliciousness.


Yeah well my theory is sexier so...

Besides I'm more right because my WLR is higher this month.

#9 UnofficialOperator

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 06:40 AM

View PostAppogee, on 27 November 2018 - 06:13 AM, said:

Tier 1 is bloated with pilots who aren't actually very good at the game.


To add on to my previous, because Heavies and Assaults impact the game so much, when you went all Lights in your last season, you are basically giving over control to fate and randomness that you get actually decent or even average Heavies and Assault pilots on your team.

#10 RickySpanish

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:09 AM

View PostAppogee, on 27 November 2018 - 06:13 AM, said:

I have a great PC ... and last Season I got the 'potato team' so many times that my win:loss was actually less than 1 for the first time in my 26 Season life.

So, sorry, your theory doesn't stack up.

Matchmaking is bad simply due to garbage-in-garbage-out. The matchmaker uses PSR Tiers to create teams. But the PSR Tiers are meaningless, because they are significantly weighted to increase over time. Even below-average pilots end up in Tier 1.

Which is where we are now. Tier 1 is bloated with pilots who aren't actually very good at the game.


I had a 30 game losing streak last season, went from 2.19 w/l to 1.3. In that time I tried everything humanly possible to carry my team and failed. This season feels the same, except when I pilot a Piranha. When I'm in my PIR not even God himself can stop me.

#11 The pessimistic optimist

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:02 AM

Unless you have some hard evidence its not a good idea to engage in conspiracy.

#12 Appogee

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:25 AM

View PostUnofficialOperator, on 27 November 2018 - 06:40 AM, said:

To add on to my previous, because Heavies and Assaults impact the game so much, when you went all Lights in your last season, you are basically giving over control to fate and randomness that you get actually decent or even average Heavies and Assault pilots on your team.

Your theory makes sense. In fact, since I've tonned up a bit this Season (more Mediums, some Heavies) my win loss is double that of my disastrous last season.

#13 Appogee

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:29 AM

View PostRickySpanish, on 27 November 2018 - 07:09 AM, said:

I had a 30 game losing streak last season, went from 2.19 w/l to 1.3.

Jeebus. I start to want to put my fist through the monitor when I get to half that number of straight losses :)

It's worse on those days when I'm "in the zone" and playing well. I can be doing double the damage and kills of the rest of the team. But STILL NO WIN!

Drives me crazy! :D

#14 Novakaine

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:26 AM

PGI's algorithm provides for this.
1. One maybe two Aces we'll go with two to for fun sake.
2. Three average players.
3. And the remainder from below average players to sheer potatoesPosted Image

#15 The pessimistic optimist

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 10:33 AM

View PostNovakaine, on 27 November 2018 - 10:26 AM, said:

PGI's algorithm provides for this.
1. One maybe two Aces we'll go with two to for fun sake.
2. Three average players.
3. And the remainder from below average players to sheer potatoesPosted Image

Dude the number of times I have had to carry a team is not funny...

#16 Grus

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 02:54 PM

View PostSirSmokes, on 27 November 2018 - 10:33 AM, said:

Dude the number of times I have had to carry a team is not funny...
its kinda funny.. even a little funny..

#17 The pessimistic optimist

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 02:56 PM

View PostGrus, on 27 November 2018 - 02:54 PM, said:

its kinda funny.. even a little funny..

Its fun in the my team sucks and I really didn't want to die and lose so I played really hard way:P

#18 Nightbird

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 02:59 PM

I think it sorts by weight class and then tier, then assigns to two teams by going 1, 2, 1, 2 etc down the list. Of course, tiers mean squat, so there's a 99% chance the balance of skill is not balanced. If teams are balanced, it's by luck and not by design.

#19 FRAGTAST1C

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 07:57 PM

Again, isn't avg. match score a better variable to base a MM around?

#20 justcallme A S H

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 08:05 PM

View PostUnofficialOperator, on 27 November 2018 - 06:15 AM, said:


Oceanic servers and off peak NA servers don't count because all potatos.

Come at me Aussies


Ive been playing more NA peak than anything else of late





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