54 replies to this topic

[Tiewolf]

I play QP only. I am a mediocre player T1 but I pull an average match score of about 300 and k/d is way better then 1. I played a lot of matches in the last seasons so no bias of too few matches.

I keep losing, losing and losing. Way too much as by chance. My performance is ok but my w/l ratio drops far below 1. How is that even possible over +200 games?

Edit: I looked up my stats. Lol. I didn't knew that I am in the top 10% player population. And my feeling didn't trick me either. W/L ratio is .90 with match score around 300 and 1.8 k/d

Edited by Tiewolf, 07 April 2019 - 10:00 AM.

[Bud Crue]

Tiewolf, on 07 April 2019 - 04:03 AM, said:

I keep losing, losing and losing. Way too much as by chance.

Can you elaborate more on this? I mean what makes you sure it isn't just a question of chance? What are you doing in game that convinces you that you ought to be assured of more wins than what you are experiencing via "chance"?

[Maddermax]

Tiewolf, on 07 April 2019 - 04:03 AM, said:

I play QP only. I am a mediocre player T1 but I pull an average match score of about 300 and k/d is way better then 1. I played a lot of matches in the last seasons so no bias of too few matches.

I keep losing, losing and losing. Way too much as by chance. My performance is ok but my w/l ratio drops far below 1. How is that even possible over +200 games?

Yeah, it is a bit odd. You’re still winning more games than you’re losing, but considering you have a better K/D ratio and score, I have a consistently higher W/L ratio (not massively better, but consistently so).

Only thing I can think of is that I fairly consistently call on comms (just simple things like open components, good targets to focus, and not to get split up) that might make a difference.

[Nesutizale]

Seriously you wonder why you loose when the team plays bad or do you think that you can carry so heavy that you should win just because you have a positiv W/L ?

With so little population you will have days where you are matched with lots of people who play...suboptimal again and again.
That is pretty much normal. Its a teamgame, you fall and win with the others.

[Tiewolf]

Bud Crue, on 07 April 2019 - 04:20 AM, said:

Can you elaborate more on this? I mean what makes you sure it isn't just a question of chance? What are you doing in game that convinces you that you ought to be assured of more wins than what you are experiencing via "chance"?

By chance w/l should be 1. Everything above or less should be a result of your performance over x amounts of games. If x is high enough like in my case the results are very unlikely by chance. If my performance would be outright bad I wouldn't wonder. But it is not and still my teams loose significant more often as they should. And yes I play objectives and try to win.

Edited by Tiewolf, 07 April 2019 - 04:43 AM.

[Snowhawk]

Matchmaker thinks that you Play like Proton or Bowser. So you have to cary your Team....

[Tiewolf]

Maddermax, on 07 April 2019 - 04:25 AM, said:

Only thing I can think of is that I fairly consistently call on comms (just simple things like open components, good targets to focus, and not to get split up) that might make a difference.

Even drop calling and comms should even out over so many games in QP. That's why I wonder if something has changed or if there is a MM variable we all do not know.

[Asym]

Low population creates a sill polarization effect.... I am a potato and play for the fun of it... But, what I have witnessed are teams that are one sided skill wise for well over a year now. Even, to the point that I am in the top three score wise some days......

Constant losses to massive stomps or being on the Stomping team ! Skill is not a measure this MM uses at all and, because of that, with low populations, you are going to see a lot of stomps that continue to drive the population even lower.....

Wait till MW5 drops ! I wouldn't be surprised to see MWO suspend operations at certain times of the day.

[John Bronco]

Bad luck and the the fact that matches are not really independent given the low population.

Count the deadbeats on your team after the match is over, like people with less than 100 dmg, if your team has more of those than the other team you probably lost. And these people keep coming up over and over.

[Grus]

Tiewolf, on 07 April 2019 - 04:03 AM, said:

I play QP only. I am a mediocre player T1 but I pull an average match score of about 300 and k/d is way better then 1. I played a lot of matches in the last seasons so no bias of too few matches.

I keep losing, losing and losing. Way too much as by chance. My performance is ok but my w/l ratio drops far below 1. How is that even possible over +200 games?

Maybe it's a correction? The teir level means nothing really, just a exp bar. So as you progress in the tiers, you run into more and more experienced players.

[Helsbane]

Grus, on 07 April 2019 - 07:36 AM, said:

Maybe it's a correction? The teir level means nothing really, just a exp bar. So as you progress in the tiers, you run into more and more experienced players.

What Grus said. Tier level is nothing but an XP bar. The more you play, the higher it goes. If it really meant anything related to performance, I'd be in the middle of tier 3 where I belong, because I'm merely a serviceable pilot and nothing spectacular. 99% of tier 1 is the same, only there because of regular play.

[Dionnsai]

@Tiewolf

Your perception is not reality at all: https://leaderboard....earch?u=tiewolf

You are a good 90th percentile pilot with a solid ~1.5+ K/D and roughly a ~1:1 win/loss ratio. Statistically speaking, if you are dropping solo queue ALOT, I would expect you to have more or less the Win/Loss you do, simply because the more QP games you play, the more you should trend towards a 50/50 chance of winning or losing.

If you look closely at your numbers by season, there is some deviation above or below 1:1 but collectively across all seasons you can see the numbers pulling true.

The only pilots I would see as an exception to this rule are:

1. 99.9th percentile pilots with an exceptional carry ability.
2. Solid drop commanders with an exceptional ability to pug wrangle.
3. Pilots who drop GROUP QP more than SOLO QP and always drop with a solid team.
4. Terrible pilots who are so bad they pull their team down or aggravate them on comms will have significantly lower win/loss ratios than the average.

On a brighter note, I sent you a friend invite in game, we run daily faction group drops as well as Solaris matches and we are always looking for good pilots like yourself.

Edited by Dionnsai, 07 April 2019 - 08:35 AM.

[CFC Conky]

Hi Tiewolf,

Funny, I'm experiencing the same thing over the last couple of seasons. I'm about in the middle of T3, and for a long time my matches have been fairly well balanced with some stomps, but more often than not a good fight that is not decided too quickly. Lately, however, it's 12-0/2 or vice-versa about three-quarters of the time.

Some forum denizens may well respond with something along the lines of 'well, the only constant is you, what are you doing to tank your matches?', but when it's a 12-0 stomp, I don't think one can say that's it's all on the shoulders of one player.

My Jarl's stats are up and down like a yo-yo, sort of trending upwards but it does feel like I'm hitting a wall. Like Helsbane, it looks like I might be a serviceable player, but not much more.

Not ready to start my 'I'm leaving' thread yet though, so don't ask for my stuff ok?

Good hunting,
CFC Conky

Edited by CFC Conky, 07 April 2019 - 03:42 PM.

[Tiewolf]

Grus, on 07 April 2019 - 07:36 AM, said:

Maybe it's a correction? The teir level means nothing really, just a exp bar. So as you progress in the tiers, you run into more and more experienced players.

Helsbane, on 07 April 2019 - 08:08 AM, said:

What Grus said. Tier level is nothing but an XP bar. The more you play, the higher it goes. If it really meant anything related to performance, I'd be in the middle of tier 3 where I belong, because I'm merely a serviceable pilot and nothing spectacular. 99% of tier 1 is the same, only there because of regular play.

I am T1 since...actually i do not know. A very long time and countless seasons. Just wrote it to preempt "you moved up a tier" comments. I do not judge my performance by my tier rating. This would be indeed hilarious.

[FupDup]

[Tiewolf]

Asym, on 07 April 2019 - 05:18 AM, said:

Low population creates a sill polarization effect.... I am a potato and play for the fun of it... But, what I have witnessed are teams that are one sided skill wise for well over a year now. Even, to the point that I am in the top three score wise some days......

Constant losses to massive stomps or being on the Stomping team ! Skill is not a measure this MM uses at all and, because of that, with low populations, you are going to see a lot of stomps that continue to drive the population even lower.....

Wait till MW5 drops ! I wouldn't be surprised to see MWO suspend operations at certain times of the day.

BlaizerP, on 07 April 2019 - 05:47 AM, said:

Bad luck and the the fact that matches are not really independent given the low population.

Count the deadbeats on your team after the match is over, like people with less than 100 dmg, if your team has more of those than the other team you probably lost. And these people keep coming up over and over.

With x= 400 games in the last season it should make no difference and bad luck, more extreme teams due to low player population or everything else should even itself out.

[John Bronco]

Logically that makes sense and we'd expect bad luck to average out in the long run, it just seems the run is longer than we would expect. Just saying I've been there too and your stats indicate a rubbish streak of luck. As always, focus on maximizing your own performance. there's not much you can do about potato teams.

[Tiewolf]

Dionnsai, on 07 April 2019 - 08:21 AM, said:

@Tiewolf

Your perception is not reality at all: https://leaderboard....earch?u=tiewolf

You are a good 90th percentile pilot with a solid ~1.5+ K/D and roughly a ~1:1 win/loss ratio. Statistically speaking, if you are dropping solo queue ALOT, I would expect you to have more or less the Win/Loss you do, simply because the more QP games you play, the more you should trend towards a 50/50 chance of winning or losing.

If you look closely at your numbers by season, there is some deviation above or below 1:1 but collectively across all seasons you can see the numbers pulling true.

The only pilots I would see as an exception to this rule are:

1. 99.9th percentile pilots with an exceptional carry ability.
2. Solid drop commanders with an exceptional ability to pug wrangle.
3. Pilots who drop GROUP QP more than SOLO QP and always drop with a solid team.
4. Terrible pilots who are so bad they pull their team down or aggravate them on comms will have significantly lower win/loss ratios than the average.

On a brighter note, I sent you a friend invite in game, we run daily faction group drops as well as Solaris matches and we are always looking for good pilots like yourself.

Thx for the invite!
Well i looked up my stats too and I was quite surprised because most of the time I use no consumables and drop with not fully skilled non meta mechs in solo Q solely.
You are right that over a lot of games/seasons regession to the mean kicks in stronger. In the last season I played about 400 games. That sample size should be enough to rough out the most spikes caused by chance. The only times my w/l ratios were that low was when I deliberately tested things e.g. playing excusively IS mechs for one or two whole season etc.. And then my performance was noticeably worse so my w/l ratio drop was predictable. But that was not the case in the last season. My teams were constantly so bad, that I am astonished that my w/l ration is still around .9.

Maybe you are right and it is just a very very long streak of bad luck. But with 400 games played the probability for that is highly unlikely.

Edited by Tiewolf, 07 April 2019 - 11:59 AM.

[M R T]

I have also noticed a lot of randomness lately. I have two accounts, one try hard were I play as best I can, and this one were I basically don't give a damn and actively tank my stats. However I haven't really gotten a good feeling from matches of late, there just seem to be to much left to chance.

For instance, the other day I played 8 really good matches, lots of damage and kills, yet I got 6 losses. One match I even got 5 kills and 1K damage, but it still wasn't enough to win, and that's a heavy load carried. And when I just gave up, and played a few horribad matches with some unskilled mechs, I got 8 wins, no thanks to my contribution to say the least.

Statistically it doesn't prove anything, but I've noticed the same as you in the last month or so. Maybe there's still some residual returning players lingering from the event hanging around, making more random T1 teams. I've just decided not to play on my alt account, until I know for sure that my contribution actually leads to more wins than losses.

Edited by Morte Nilsum, 07 April 2019 - 12:09 PM.

[Variant1]

Matchmaker doesnt balance teams, it just randomly cobles them together. There have been suggestion to fix this like distributing the avg match score. but this will never get fixed

FupDup, on 07 April 2019 - 11:13 AM, said:

you can have fun if you play for fun. That image makes no sense, if they were having fun and carrying the team thats fine but if they are complaining about bad teams then thats on them, mm pairs randomly not evenly. time peeps embrace the potatoes and let go