283 replies to this topic

[Nesutizale]

Ahh okay. Will be interesting to see how well the simulation goes in the future.
Question to that. You are useing just W/L for the prediction or the current PSR system?

[Nightbird]

Nesutizale, on 26 July 2020 - 03:01 AM, said:

Ahh okay. Will be interesting to see how well the simulation goes in the future.
Question to that. You are useing just W/L for the prediction or the current PSR system?

Both. Blue is Jay Z's system, the current PSR system, red is WLR which is mine.

[Nightbird]

An update. Rather than present season 49 data, I combine season 49 with season 48 since the prediction is based on cumulative games.



We're currently at 40.5% of the population within the middle 3 bars 0.9-1.1. It is predicted to rise to 44.6% by the time the average games reaches 240.

The WLR method is predicted to reach 79.8% over the same number of games played.

[Nesutizale]

For the understanding. This means the simulation of the new PSR system is pretty similar to what we see happening with ~40% to 44% between real result and prediction. So about 4% differance what I think it pretty close.

When we say that the WLR prediction is similar close to what would happen, what does that mean beside a differance in scattering of people with different systems.

When the goal is to have better matchmakeing, isn't the further spread of people in the current PSR system preferable to the WLR system that has a higher concentration of people in the middle?
It seams that PSR is more precice by seperating people more instead of haveing lots in the middle slot.

[Nightbird]

Nesutizale, on 03 August 2020 - 02:14 AM, said:

For the understanding. This means the simulation of the new PSR system is pretty similar to what we see happening with ~40% to 44% between real result and prediction. So about 4% differance what I think it pretty close.

When we say that the WLR prediction is similar close to what would happen, what does that mean beside a differance in scattering of people with different systems.

When the goal is to have better matchmakeing, isn't the further spread of people in the current PSR system preferable to the WLR system that has a higher concentration of people in the middle?
It seams that PSR is more precice by seperating people more instead of haveing lots in the middle slot.

Having more people near 1 in the middle means the PSR is less bad. The more easily people can be >1 or <1 WLR means the PSR sucks.

P.S. The prediction is 44.6% after 240 games average, we're currently at 146. Still many weeks before we can call it. You can see this post for the 120 games prediction which we just passed: https://mwomercs.com...ost__p__6345038

Edited by Nightbird, 03 August 2020 - 07:16 AM.

[Nightbird]

42.4 @ 160 games of a predicted 44.6 @ 240 games

[Nightbird]

43 @ 175 games of a predicted 44.6 @ 240 games

This is taking too long. I've made the point I wanted to make, so I'm making this my last update.

Edited by Nightbird, 15 August 2020 - 02:55 PM.

[VonBruinwald]

Nightbird, on 15 August 2020 - 02:22 PM, said:

This is taking too long. I've made the point I wanted to make, so I'm making this my last update.

You made your point long ago, but thick skulls need hard drills.

If I may request, I would be interested in seeing this updated monthly in parallel to Jarls. Not so much as for making a point but rather as a case of "statistics vs. reality".

"JZ (Theoretical) vs. Nightbird. Vs. JZ (Actual) would suffice.

Thanks either way.

[Nightbird]

I was happy to let this thread die but thievingmagpi requested I bump it to remind you who to thank for the current soup queue PSR MM fiasco.

[thievingmagpi]

Oh hey, petty "math guy" doesn't know how to communicate with other humans. Gets mad when no one listens.

Lmao.

[Nightbird]

thievingmagpi, on 10 October 2020 - 01:19 PM, said:

Oh hey, petty "math guy" doesn't know how to communicate with other humans. Gets mad when no one listens.

Lmao.

I can only dumb myself down so much... you're asking for too much m8.

[thievingmagpi]

Nightbird, on 10 October 2020 - 01:21 PM, said:

I can only dumb myself down so much... you're asking for too much m8.

Crazy thing is there *are* people who can do that and do it well. People whose entire jobs is relaying technical information by those who aren't good at communicating, to those who aren't very good at understanding it.

Turns out you tried to pull one over on them by posting screenshots suggesting the cabal is insulting the playerbase again.

Edited by thievingmagpi, 10 October 2020 - 01:26 PM.

[Nightbird]

thievingmagpi, on 10 October 2020 - 01:22 PM, said:

Crazy thing is there *are* people who can do that and do it well. People whose entire jobs is relaying technical information by those who aren't good at communicating, to those who aren't very good at understanding it.

Turns out you tried to pull one over on them by posting screenshots suggesting the cabal is insulting the playerbase again.

I wouldn't want those technical people working on anything I use based on how bad the PSR is...

[thievingmagpi]

Nightbird, on 10 October 2020 - 01:31 PM, said:

I wouldn't want those technical people working on anything I use based on how bad the PSR is...

Wow, not only are you bad at communicating, but you're bad at reading too.

[Nightbird]

thievingmagpi, on 10 October 2020 - 01:32 PM, said:

Wow, not only are you bad at communicating, but you're bad at reading too.

When you said "People whose entire jobs is relaying technical information by those who aren't good at communicating" you meant Jay Z right? Jay Z is bad at communicating, and therefore others did that part.

[thievingmagpi]

Nightbird, on 10 October 2020 - 01:35 PM, said:

When you said "People whose entire jobs is relaying technical information by those who aren't good at communicating" you meant Jay Z right? Jay Z is bad at communicating, and therefore others did that part.

So maybe go back and read what I said.

[Nightbird]

thievingmagpi, on 10 October 2020 - 01:37 PM, said:

So maybe go back and read what I said.

I did, and it's nothing for Jay Z to be embarrassed about. I on the other hand have gotten paid as an invited speaker at professional conferences several times, so my communication skills are at least passable.

[thievingmagpi]

Nightbird, on 10 October 2020 - 01:41 PM, said:

I did, and it's nothing for Jay Z to be embarrassed about.

Ah, so when you say you weren't insulting people?

Nightbird, on 10 October 2020 - 01:41 PM, said:

I on the other hand have gotten paid as an invited speaker at professional conferences several times, so my communication skills are at least passable.

Clearly not passable enough to make a few graphs understandable.

[Nightbird]

thievingmagpi, on 10 October 2020 - 01:42 PM, said:

Ah, so when you say you weren't insulting people?

I didn't bring up Jay Z's communication skills... you did?

[thievingmagpi]

Nightbird, on 10 October 2020 - 01:44 PM, said:

I didn't bring up Jay Z's communication skills... you did?

I didn't mention Jay Z at all.

But go ahead, keep showing everyone how insecure you are.