27 replies to this topic

[DEVASTATOR]

Just curious if anyone out there has any idea what it will take in terms of player for this game to be successful? By "success" I mean profitable in amounts that make it worthwhile to continue support and development for the game. Just making it into the black wouldn't be enough for this to be a success I suspect.

I've no experience with any other MMO (although I'm familiar by name with many of them) and have no idea how many people regularly play them. Even though this is F2P a certain % of those players are always going to spend some money to get access to things in the game. So what's the threshold? What's the number that gets the game from a success to being hugely successful?

Does 5,000 = success (making money and worth supporting)?
Does 10,000 = huge success (even the receptionist can afford a Porsche)?
100,000?

Anyone have any experience from other MMO's?

Edited by DEVASTATOR, 20 January 2012 - 06:28 AM.

[Strayed]

Wish this was done like BBC..... we ain't here for ratings, we're here for that man over there....alone in the corner.

How many players have world of tanks got? Best way to probably judge.

[BigMo5]

Its not how many players, its how many paying customers.


WoT may not be the best because its more regional. In the RU server its Packed where as the NA it sits at about 13K daily...

I cannot even give a forcast without knowing what will be bought for USD, Will there be a premium account for faster learning, will there be Premium Mechs, Premium Items that force a module to be learned. There are a lot of things that have not been released yet, but know the producers are going to want to turn a profit.

Then you have the idea "What is success" to a Developer, just creating code that runs on 75% of the machines bug free? Could that be success, to an investor making about 8-9% RoR on the initial investment yearly.

We can speculate a few things: Prem Account. 10-15 monthly. using the same numbers of WoT(which would be low for MW) you get these numbers, just using about 75% of the total as paying customers: 1.1-4.4M annually minus expenses. That is just an estimate.

Edited by BigMo5, 20 January 2012 - 06:54 AM.

[Chuckie]

25,000 - Average free loader
200,000 - Avg spending $5-$10 a month
10,000 - Hardcore spending $20+ a month
500 - Complete MW nerds that spend more than they care to admit..

That would be at launch..

I think a steady 200,000-300,000 and they would be happy..

Eve has about 400,000

ST:O (which just went F2P) has about 100,000 (Kind of surprised about that number) and is still around

http://www.mmodata.net/ - Curious about the numbers here though as some games show subscriptions to the 90s..







If they have limited expectations they could be looking at something like EVE

If they plan to try to be a WoW killer then the 3-4 million

Noticed WoT Is not listed in these charts.. but that would be a good comparable as well.

Hopefully it doesn't end up like Warhammer; Age of Conan or ST:O with a high peak and a 1-2 year lifespan.

I think a better comparable is ST:O (Scifi, rabid fan base, but a niche market) and hopefully they do better than the reported 150,000 at launch and current 60,000 subscribers (It has been reported on some STO forums that the numbers are really off.. not sure if thats just Trekkies not dealing with the game being as successful as they want it to be).

That said if the numbers are right, it would be interesting to see them update numbers in a few months once ST:Os' move to F2P has taken hold.

That said, if MW:O is truly unique, fun to play and keeps everyone interested a long time it could beat EVE.

I do think though that having a "World" to explore for your mechwarrior (With bars, mech lab, auction house, jumpships, etc.. ) that would help keep people interested long term. It maybe something they want to think about implementing after launch. It simply could be a walk around city for each group.. nothing fancy (think ST:O or EVE space station). Just someplace for people to "see" one another between drops.. would give the game more of an immersion feel and being that the game is being built on Crysis3, not a far reach to build. But think that is for the future. RIght now I just want them to get the Mech Battles started.

Edited by Chuckie, 20 January 2012 - 07:17 AM.

[jjuurriijj]

Wow! A bit off-topic but I didn't realize until now how fast games like Age of Conan and Warhammer Online plummeted.

[DEVASTATOR]

Now THAT'S an answer! Great info.

So, we may need upwards of 100,000 to a quarter million subscribers for this to be a success. That doesn't indicate profitability but its probably a good yard stick. I think we have something like 25,000 people signed up now so we've got a long way to go.

People better get recruiting!

[Nik Van Rhijn]

Chuckie your a star - Like + 10k - very impressive work. As you say it's a pity no WoT. I would envisage that this and ST:O would be the comparable games. I played the Starfleet Command games (and still do occaisionaly) online but held off joining STO until I saw what it was like. The initial reports from friends were enough to put me off. Even though it's now F2P I can't be bothered, I'd rather wait for this.

[Chuckie]

Thanks..

I liked ST:O and played a few months.. but got busy ( I tend to play online MMOs during the winter months, then I get busy with my cars, etc.. ) Actually to play it again the last week.. Its a fun place to go and waste time..

Better than WoW (Although I will admit I got to 72nd level in WoW with a Druid.. but that took like 3 years off and on.)

Eve I never got into I installed and played a while, but to be honest.. seemed a bit boring and cliqish.

My kids played runscape for a while and I have watched that grow..

So I have a been around playing MMOs a while since I hung up my neurohelmet when the steam kind of went out of the MW4 community.

To be honest I have been playing MMORPGs since they were known as MUDs (http://en.wikipedia....#Graphical_MUDs) on a 386 (http://en.wikipedia....iki/Intel_80386) BTW Who knew they built 386 chips until 2007... Links are there for those under the age of 30 and have no clue what I am talking about.

Edited by Chuckie, 20 January 2012 - 07:32 AM.

[BigMo5]

How many of those are F2P from the start?

[Unclecid]

i call shenanigans on the info on those graphs.

there are at least 3 mmos on there from Turbine who NEVER release their subscription numbers so the info posted on their graphs are pure specualtion with no basis in any fact whatsoever.

which in my mind puts the whole website as pure fabrication.

[Damocles]

Yeah I doubt Warhammer ever had that many subs, and definitely now has way less.
Such waste!

and if Tibia went by active accounts it would prolly be several times higher at certain intervals

Edited by Damocles, 20 January 2012 - 08:44 AM.

[Fence]

BigMo5, on 20 January 2012 - 06:51 AM, said:

Its not how many players, its how many paying customers.


WoT may not be the best because its more regional. In the RU server its Packed where as the NA it sits at about 13K daily...

I cannot even give a forcast without knowing what will be bought for USD, Will there be a premium account for faster learning, will there be Premium Mechs, Premium Items that force a module to be learned. There are a lot of things that have not been released yet, but know the producers are going to want to turn a profit.

They have already stated that purchasable items will in no way affect gameplay; they don't want to put players in a P2W situation (as has been covered many times before here in the forums). Thus I doubt there will be premium mechs or perks for faster learning... But who knows. I guess these things will become more clear once we near launch.

[DEVASTATOR]

Fence, on 20 January 2012 - 08:53 AM, said:

They have already stated that purchasable items will in no way affect gameplay; they don't want to put players in a P2W situation (as has been covered many times before here in the forums). Thus I doubt there will be premium mechs or perks for faster learning... But who knows. I guess these things will become more clear once we near launch.

Yes but they NEED paying customers or this will die quickly. So, no matter what we think there will be "some" incentive to give them your money. If everything you could ever want can be had for free as quickly as if you paid for it why would anyone give them money? I suspect there will be a % of the base that will spend money. So, as a yard stick only, it'd be nice to know how many total players are needed to make this profitable and worth supporting with the understanding that a % of those people will be spending real cash too.

It'd be dissapointing if Chuckie's posted graphs turned out to be inaccurate. They sure do look impressive!

[Chuckie]

Unclecid, on 20 January 2012 - 08:36 AM, said:

i call shenanigans on the info on those graphs.

there are at least 3 mmos on there from Turbine who NEVER release their subscription numbers so the info posted on their graphs are pure specualtion with no basis in any fact whatsoever.

which in my mind puts the whole website as pure fabrication.

As the disclaimer on MMO Datas website:

Dispite being carefull and doing the necessary research, MMOData.net cannot guarantee the validity of the information found here as it is based on various sources which could be incomplete, inaccurate or otherwise unreliable. Furthermore, all estimates are the opinion of MMOData.net and should be treated as such.

So for the sake of argument you sometimes work with the best info you have available.

The guys at MMOData have been compiling the infor for the charts for over 2 years and have tried to be as nuetral as possible when getting thier data. So, these numbers should be statistically accurate enough to draw a reference from..

So while for some individual game the numbers may not be 100% accurate.. To answer the question raised they provide a point of reference to be inferred from. YOU will just have to pick and choose sometimes. Like I would be willing to be Atari would have dumped ST:O if it was doing as weak as the numbers look. Because only a few games have such low and drastically bad numbers. But if MMOData is correct, then the F2P thing ST:O is doing now is a last ditch effort to make some money off the franchise and breathe new life into it in the hopes it wont die like the others.

Still no matter what its all just a SWAG (Super wild @$$ guess), but at least one based in some sort of statistical data.

Edited by Chuckie, 20 January 2012 - 09:22 AM.

[MilitantMonk]

I doubt the veracity of the hard numbers but appreciate the graphs!

Sony and Turbine never publish their numbers. Heck I remember players on EQ crying for server merges for YEARS once WoW came out. In the last two years they've had two major consolidations. Another thing that's odd on those numbers is that a million copies of the EverQuest expansion Planes of Power were sold (hardcopies before DLC style took off) and yet that number of subscriptions was always under a half million. Weird.

Once more as with all MMOs how many accounts vs. how many actual people that play are totally different numbers. Lots of players run several subscriptions and accounts.

As for the data it seems like hitting 100k does good things for keeping the game around alot longer. Though I'd rather see a growth pattern like EVE instead of something like Tabula Rasa or Conan!

[Chuckie]

BigMo5, on 20 January 2012 - 07:48 AM, said:

How many of those are F2P from the start?

MUDs were

[DEVASTATOR]

MilitantMonk, on 20 January 2012 - 09:15 AM, said:

Sony and Turbine never publish their numbers.

Sony doesn't have to. They've been hacked so often that everyone has their numbers. I think I even have their numbers

[Nick Makiaveli]

DEVASTATOR, on 20 January 2012 - 07:11 AM, said:

Now THAT'S an answer! Great info.

So, we may need upwards of 100,000 to a quarter million subscribers for this to be a success. That doesn't indicate profitability but its probably a good yard stick. I think we have something like 25,000 people signed up now so we've got a long way to go.

People better get recruiting!

I've always heard that 100K is the baseline for subscription models, it that brings in enough to keep the doors open and hire enough guards to keep the devs from picking the locks and escaping.

For a F2P model, not a clue. But if there are 25K people interested in the forums, that's a good sign. I know many people who rarely visit the forums of the games they actually play, and many more don't want to "waste" time if the game flops or never actually appears.

[Morashtak]

Thanks for the charts, Chuckie.

Now, what is "success" has already been determined by the team through the business model. Would like a little peek but not into signing NDA's.

I would consider MW:O to be a success when it shows a steady rise in accounts and subscriptions. Now wanting something like some of the games that spiked and died.

Hopefully there are few people running around yelling how great this game will be (and implying so at launch) and more that are recruiting with the MVP (minimum viable product) clearly stated. This will bring people in with realistic expectations rather than those expecting a full formed, sandbox/MMORP/MMORTS/MMOFPS/RTARPG (plus what ever mix of letters that are missing).

Success; a loyal, devoted following with a viable base of paying customers over the life of the project. How's that?

[Chuckie]

Morashtak, on 20 January 2012 - 09:44 AM, said:

Now, what is "success" has already been determined by the team through the business model. Would like a little peek but not into signing NDA's.

I will gladly go quite on the forum, and/or talk in code, if they send me a URL to download the Alpha, a Key and a NDA to sign, heck I would even through in my 17 year old son to be their servant.. (Not sure if that would be a bonus to THEM or not.. )

Edited by Chuckie, 20 January 2012 - 10:07 AM.