27 replies to this topic

[zverofaust]

Since reinstalling a few days ago I've played on River City probably around 30 times or so, the usual amount.

Of those 30 times, I've started at the Airfield for all but 2 games.

This goes well above and beyond random chance. 2 out of 30+ games? Something is amiss here.

I suspect it has something to do with how the game places connecting Players on this map. I am often one of the first to load (at least, my name appears in the top of the list for my team most of the time) so it seems logical that for whatever reason, Players are placed in specific non-random order depending on the order of their connecting/loading the map.

Maybe it's something else entirely, I don't know. That's all I can come up with to explain why I've only started at the Docks twice in so many, many games.

[IIIuminaughty]

I thought you had a real problem

[Booran]

It might still be random you know. Improbable, but not impossible

[Roughneck45]

Its a conspiracy zverofaust.

The devs are trying to put you on a flight out of town...

Edited by Roughneck45, 17 December 2012 - 07:19 AM.

[Mercules]

zverofaust, on 17 December 2012 - 07:13 AM, said:

Since reinstalling a few days ago I've played on River City probably around 30 times or so, the usual amount.

Of those 30 times, I've started at the Airfield for all but 2 games.

This goes well above and beyond random chance. 2 out of 30+ games? Something is amiss here.

I suspect it has something to do with how the game places connecting Players on this map. I am often one of the first to load (at least, my name appears in the top of the list for my team most of the time) so it seems logical that for whatever reason, Players are placed in specific non-random order depending on the order of their connecting/loading the map.

Maybe it's something else entirely, I don't know. That's all I can come up with to explain why I've only started at the Docks twice in so many, many games.

Someone doesn't understand probability. Just because the chance is 50/50 doesn't mean that in 30 instances you will get an even distribution. It doesn't mean it will even come close to an even distribution. You could literally flip a coin 30 times and have heads come up all but 2 times. Is it likely? No, but it is also not improbable. Each flip, no matter what the previous 29 flips have been, is just as likely to be Heads as it is to be Tails. To believe otherwise is Gamblers Fallacy and is why casinos make money.

[AlexEss]

that being said this is perhaps one of those times when it would be a good idea to have such a system. At least in the PUG part of the MM:

[zverofaust]

3 more games since my last post on River City, all 3 starting at the Airfield.

Yep totally just random chance coincidence.

[soarra]

zverofaust, on 17 December 2012 - 07:36 AM, said:

3 more games since my last post on River City, all 3 starting at the Airfield.

Yep totally just random chance coincidence.

this isnt a conspiracy against you, its Random. 50% chance each time you get that map to see where you start.

[Mercules]

zverofaust, on 17 December 2012 - 07:36 AM, said:

3 more games since my last post on River City, all 3 starting at the Airfield.

Yep totally just random chance coincidence.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

"Gambler's fallacy arises out of a belief in the law of small numbers, or the erroneous belief that small samples must be representative of the larger population. According to the fallacy, "streaks" must eventually even out in order to be representative."

Edited by Mercules, 17 December 2012 - 07:44 AM.

[zverofaust]

soarra, on 17 December 2012 - 07:39 AM, said:

this isnt a conspiracy against you, its Random. 50% chance each time you get that map to see where you start.

Who said anything about conspiracy? I gave facts, and a potential cause.

[FrDrake]

Your theory would hold true only if all the other maps also had you spawning in one or the other locations consistently. I doubt they have special code just for river city placement, that just doesn't make sense.

[zverofaust]

FrDrake, on 17 December 2012 - 07:41 AM, said:

Your theory would hold true only if all the other maps also had you spawning in one or the other locations consistently. I doubt they have special code just for river city placement, that just doesn't make sense.

It could be as simple as one misplaced semicolon in the script package for spawning locators for River City. It does not require any sort of special unique code being in place.

[Joseph Mallan]

Yeah and in statistics class I was taught that 90% of the facts, are wrong 70% of the time.

(Seriously, The facts You think you know are usually wrong. Without substanciating data.)

[Penance]

this thread has been hijacked...it's now about this gif.

[elbloom]

it´s not random, whoever has more premade will start down at the city. The solo puggers start at the airfield.

OP, you were solo-pugging, right ?

[Mercules]

elbloom, on 17 December 2012 - 07:45 AM, said:

it´s not random, whoever has more premade will start down at the city. The solo puggers start at the airfield.

OP, you were solo-pugging, right ?

Also not true. As a 3-4 man pre-made I start up in the starport roughly as often as I do on the docks.

[Apoc1138]

Mercules, on 17 December 2012 - 07:20 AM, said:

Someone doesn't understand probability. Just because the chance is 50/50 doesn't mean that in 30 instances you will get an even distribution. It doesn't mean it will even come close to an even distribution. You could literally flip a coin 30 times and have heads come up all but 2 times. Is it likely? No, but it is also not improbable. Each flip, no matter what the previous 29 flips have been, is just as likely to be Heads as it is to be Tails. To believe otherwise is Gamblers Fallacy and is why casinos make money.

just to be pedantic... the meaning of the word "improbable" is "not likely or unexpected"... so you've written "it's not likely, but it's also not not likely"

I think you meant to say: it's improbable, but not impossible

the chances of getting a 50/50 chance always land on 1 instead of 2, 28 times in 30 is nearly 1 in a billion... I would call that improbable... but not impossible

edit; sorry, about 1 in 400million

Edited by Apoc1138, 17 December 2012 - 07:52 AM.

[GODzillaGSPB]

Random, yeah. Last night I played around 10 rounds or so, not much. I guess 8 of them where Caustic. And I wanted to level the basic skills of my Hunchback 4SP, a short range mech. Talking about chance...

[EyeOne]

I'd say that 28 out of 30 is an exaggeration but that being said I seem to spawn in one location a noticeable amount more than the other. It's not even close to 93% like Zero claims. But I tend to spawn on the top side of Frozen City, the non refinery side of Caustic, the bottom side of Forrest Colony and the Airfield side of River City the most.

Sometimes I play Caustic 8 times in a row too. It's just the way it goes.

[PurpleNinja]

Sometime ago I started collecting data on maps and spawn points because it doesn't appears to be really random to me, and it was not quite surprising that my feelings were right.

Out of about 80 matches, around 60 were Frozen City or Forest Colony, there were no snowy spinoffs by the time.
On Forest Colony, just in two matches I started with the water on my right side. The same goes to Frozen City and the cavern/tunnel.

But it all can be just coincidence.

Then the new map came and I scrapped all the data.
Maybe I'll start all over again after the next patch.