32 replies to this topic

[GaussDragon]

I posted this in the KaoS forums a few days ago. Some things have now played out like Jade Wolf playing a few games vs Swords of Kentares thus far and Steel Jaguar beating Bropocalypse Now 3 - 0. I welcome people to discuss how they see the progression of the season + their thoughts on matches played, etc.

KaoS Legion

Week 1 - CAE: 3 - 0
Week 2 - KDR Squad: 3 - 1
Week 3 - AoD: 3 - 0
Week 4 - WM2: 3 - 0
Week 5 - LW: 3 - 1

Current W/L ratio
15 - 2
88.235 %

Remaining opponents
Stalkers in the Night
Skye Rangers
Dark Sabers (already an automatic 3 - 0 since DS is out)
Eridani Light Pony CMC

Steel Jaguar

Week 1 - DD: 3 - 1
Week 2 - 10th SR: 3 - 0
Week 3 - AS: 3 - 1
Week 4 - BW: 3 - 0
Week 5 - MS: 3 - 0

Current W/L ratio
15 - 2
88.235 %

Remaining opponents
Word of Lowtax - Bropocalypse Now Battalion
Firepower Unlimited, LLC
Templar Exodus
Draagun

Jade Wolf

Week 1 - 9th SD: 3 - 0
Week 2 - DV8: 3 - 1
Week 3 - BA: 3 - 2
Week 4 - KE: 3 - 0
Week 5 - Not yet played

Current W/L ratio
12 - 3
80%

Remaining opponents
Swords of Kentares (week 5)
cReddit Merc Corp: Task Force JSOC
WidowMakers 1
Bravo Whiskey Charlie
Equestria Royal Guard (already an automatic 3 - 0 since EQRG is out)

Analysis

Snow Raven would be in contention if they hadn't lost to Paragon, and since it's W/L record first, then games won/lost, it's only down to the 3 teams for top seeding in the playoffs. Also, the team that Snow Raven lost to (Paragon) already has a loss at the hands of WoL Hard Corg so division 1's 1st place team will be the lowest seed in the 1st place seeding (as opposed to the seeding of all the 2nd place teams).

Basically, top seed overall is between us and SJr for the moment but not by much since Jade Wolf is only 1 loss behind us and SJr. Unless cReddit JSOC can win a game versus Jade Wolf, it's safe to say they're going to only have 3 losses from here on in considering the rest of their schedule.

What the top seed really comes down to is our remaining opponents and Steel Jag's remaining opponents. We're both 15 and 2 right now. We've already played our best opponents and the rest of our schedule should be relatively clear sailing but we have to be careful not to lose any games in our match ups vs our remaining 3 opponents. DS is out so we've got a free 3 and 0 so it comes down to winning 9 games straight against SIN, Skye Rangers and ELPCMC. While we shouldn't have trouble beating these teams in our match ups, we don't want to do something stupid that could cost us a game like getting capped or something.

Steel Jag has it harder than we do since they still have to fight WoL Bropocalypse Now who have been playing really well and are undefeated too. While Bropocalypse Now isn't supposed to be as good as KDR Squad on paper, they haven't been slouching. Between mutual opponents, Steel Jag beat Midnight Sons 3 - 0 and Bropocalypse now beat Midnight Sons 3 - 1. Against 10th Solaris Rangers, both teams won 3 - 0 but since 10th SR isn't the most formidable team, that's not saying much. The Steel Jaguars are definitely favoured over Bropocalypse Now however Bropocalypse seems to have the capability to win at least one game and even possibly upset the Jags. After that game, it's pretty much clear sailing for the Jags unless Draagun miraculously pulls a trick out of the bag.

Also, some teams may be offended by my estimation of them, I appologize. I don't mean to ruffle too many feathers here but I wanted to carry it over mostly unedited so people see it how we see it.

Edited by GaussDragon, 08 February 2013 - 08:57 PM.

[Alaric the Arcane]

Snow Raven being a lower seed just means that either SJR or KaoS will be leaving the playoffs earlier than expected.

[GaussDragon]

Alaric the Arcane, on 08 February 2013 - 10:21 PM, said:

Snow Raven being a lower seed just means that either SJR or KaoS will be leaving the playoffs earlier than expected.

Believe me when I say we weren't expecting you to lose any games.

[Oderint dum Metuant]

GaussDragon, on 09 February 2013 - 07:35 AM, said:

Believe me when I say we weren't expecting you to lose any games.

Tactical plan is tactical!

[Bryan Bekker]

I forsee the season being ended early by ELO.

[BoyWonder]

I will be colored surprised if they put ELO into 8 mans. Not enough players, same reason they did not keep weight chassis sync.

[Glory in the Highest]

GaussDragon, on 08 February 2013 - 08:59 PM, said:

Steel Jag has it harder than we do since they still have to fight WoL Bropocalypse Now who have been playing really well and are undefeated too. While Bropocalypse Now isn't supposed to be as good as KDR Squad on paper, they haven't been slouching. Between mutual opponents, Steel Jag beat Midnight Sons 3 - 0 and Bropocalypse now beat Midnight Sons 3 - 1. Against 10th Solaris Rangers, both teams won 3 - 0 but since 10th SR isn't the most formidable team, that's not saying much. The Steel Jaguars are definitely favoured over Bropocalypse Now however Bropocalypse seems to have the capability to win at least one game and even possibly upset the Jags. After that game, it's pretty much clear sailing for the Jags unless Draagun miraculously pulls a trick out of the bag.

The match vs Bropoc was actually played on Thursday night, and SJR won 3-0-1. (GGs, Bropoc, a huge challenge!)

[GaussDragon]

Bryan Bekker, on 09 February 2013 - 08:51 AM, said:

I forsee the season being ended early by ELO.

BoyWonder, on 09 February 2013 - 08:57 AM, said:

I will be colored surprised if they put ELO into 8 mans. Not enough players, same reason they did not keep weight chassis sync.

:\

[chiXnhawk]

Congrats SJ!

[GaussDragon]

Glory, on 09 February 2013 - 09:02 AM, said:

The match vs Bropoc was actually played on Thursday night, and SJR won 3-0-1. (GGs, Bropoc, a huge challenge!)

I forgot to point out that the very first paragraph and the very last paragraph in my post were add-ons, not from the original haha.

[Az0r]

Cool stuff as usual GD, I didn't even know that W/L for individual games was taken into account, kind of disappointed we drop some games now : (

*edit* Also Alaric, wouldn't the seeding be 1v8 2v7 etc, why would seeds 1 and 2 have a higher chance of being knocked out early on than say 3,4,5,6?

Edited by Az0r, 09 February 2013 - 10:33 AM.

[GaussDragon]

Az0r, on 09 February 2013 - 10:28 AM, said:

Cool stuff as usual GD, I didn't even know that W/L for individual games was taken into account, kind of disappointed we drop some games now : (

With a 9 game regular season and the way skill is distributed, it was kind of inevitable this would have to happen. We're also disappointed we lost Chix to a disconnect on game 1 vs Luna Wolves haha. I've been working with Machine to ramp up an articles section of the KaoS site with regular commentary on tactics and tournament going-ons.

[TheMagician]

I think that KaoS has the easiest chance of getting top seed, as out of the last 3 weeks, there are 2 forfeits. But one of their games is against ELPCMC, who is a good team. Jade Wolf has a few tough matches remaining, versus cReddit, WidowMakers 1, and BWC (who is a well organized team with good discipline).

The league got very interesting when Paragon beat Snow Raven, and then Wolf Spider Battalion beat Paragon. Paragon now has 2 losses, so unless WSB loses another game, Paragon might miss the playoffs.

With 3 matches to go, I think its very possible that some of the currently top ranked teams (per division) will have a loss. But Division 4 is up for grabs with a bunch of teams fighting for that spot.

With a double elimination playoff, the seeding isn't quite as important.

I hope that we can stream some of the playoff games on a substantial delay, as I know I want to watch them.

Edited by TheMagician, 09 February 2013 - 11:23 AM.

[Oderint dum Metuant]

TheMagician, on 09 February 2013 - 11:12 AM, said:

The league got very interesting when Paragon beat Snow Raven, and then Wolf Spider Battalion beat Paragon. Paragon now has 2 losses, so unless WSB loses another game, Paragon might miss the playoffs.

With 3 matches to go, I think its very possible that some of the currently top ranked teams (per division) will have a loss.

With a double elimination playoff, the seeding isn't quite as important.

I hope that we can stream some of the playoff games on a substantial delay, as I know I want to watch them.

Let's be honest we all said that our division needed spicing up, it got that when Paragon beat us.
I was surprised they lost to WSB (no offence intended)

[GaussDragon]

TheMagician, on 09 February 2013 - 11:12 AM, said:

The league got very interesting when Paragon beat Snow Raven, and then Wolf Spider Battalion beat Paragon. Paragon now has 2 losses, so unless WSB loses another game, Paragon might miss the playoffs.

Agreed, I had to reel back my cynicism about predetermined results after that happened. Though, after talking to Snow Raven, Paragon was using a similar strategy that Luna Wolves uses, only with more capping - That strategy is to try and take all brawler setups and A: be patient as all hell and play conservatively until the other team comes to you. The day before we were set to play Luna Wolves, we ran into them twice (while playing with some Snow Raven guys) so we were wise to their strategy and planned accordingly. I'm convinced Snow Raven is still the better team (no offense intended to Paragon) but I'm guessing they got caught with their pants down, and that could have happened to us had we not known the Luna Wolves play style before hand.

[Oderint dum Metuant]

GaussDragon, on 09 February 2013 - 11:17 AM, said:

Agreed, I had to reel back my cynicism about predetermined results after that happened. Though, after talking to Snow Raven, Paragon was using a similar strategy that Luna Wolves uses, only with more capping - That strategy is to try and take all brawler setups and A: be patient as all hell and play conservatively until the other team comes to you. The day before we were set to play Luna Wolves, we ran into them twice (while playing with some Snow Raven guys) so we were wise to their strategy and planned accordingly. I'm convinced Snow Raven is still the better team (no offense intended to Paragon) but I'm guessing they got caught with their pants down, and that could have happened to us had we not known the Luna Wolves play style before hand.

Agreed, and if there is one thing i know, its that revenge drives us almost as much as hate.
We now have 1 more score to settle.

[GaussDragon]

DV McKenna, on 09 February 2013 - 11:23 AM, said:

Agreed, and if there is one thing i know, its that revenge drives us almost as much as hate.

Hahahaha, agreed. We don't have anything against ELP whatsoever, but I'd be lying if I said we didn't want to earn back some ego.

[M3atloaf]

Bryan Bekker, on 09 February 2013 - 08:51 AM, said:

I forsee the season being ended early by ELO.

Didn't the Devs state that they were going to include the ability to use UID's for teams trying to match against each other when Phase 3 hit?

[Oderint dum Metuant]

M3atloaf, on 09 February 2013 - 01:20 PM, said:

Didn't the Devs state that they were going to include the ability to use UID's for teams trying to match against each other when Phase 3 hit?

Not that i have seen

[GaussDragon]

M3atloaf, on 09 February 2013 - 01:20 PM, said:

Didn't the Devs state that they were going to include the ability to use UID's for teams trying to match against each other when Phase 3 hit?

where?where?where?where?where?where?where?where?where?where?where?where?

If so, this is great news.