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Elo Is Coming: What To Expect


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#81 80Bit

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:18 AM

View PostLethalRose, on 17 February 2013 - 01:38 AM, said:


Source?




View PostMackensen, on 17 February 2013 - 05:56 AM, said:


I thought that Elo was based on damage. Is it confirmed that Elo is based on wins and losses?


There was a thread about Elo in January someone from PGI commented several times. In their comments they verified that Elo is based on win/loss only, not damage or k/d. They also replied to people talking about abusing their Elo that they would not be able to actually see their Elo, and that it was hidden not out of a specific desire to hide it, but because they are just using it as part of a larger match making system, not necessarily as a ranking system for the game.

Can't seem to find the thread again right now. I found it doing a search for "Elo" or "Phase 3" and the dev comments were several pages in.

#82 Mycrus

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:28 AM

View PostMischiefSC, on 17 February 2013 - 06:52 AM, said:

If someone has a high Elo from pug farming and wants to gimp themselves down they'd have to lose something like 150 or 200 games *back to back* and then never win more than 50% of their games again. If you play with a joystick that's fine - you'll end up playing with people you can still beat 50% of the time :D


and to unveil my next trolling project...

a few weeks into ELO (when the MM has had more than enough to sample my exquisite OPness)... i'll start posting end of round screenshots while PUGging...

if i'm really a gimp with a stick i shouldn't run into the l33t pilots that puff & peacock themselves in the forums... or will I?

btw, i'm at 1 KDR / 1.4 WLR / Ave 590xp right now... i'm your quintessential average joe kerensky... except with a joystickzzz fetish...

and cue evil PUG laugh... err yelp...


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#83 80Bit

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:29 AM

View Postarghmace, on 17 February 2013 - 07:00 AM, said:


That's exactly the problem. This is a very short period of time. Maybe someone hasn't played at all in the last two weeks? Maybe someone has just pugged or just played premades lately even though usually he does both? The ELO that people start with is completely random when it's based on such a short period. Why not check the W/D ratio since the start of open beta?


They can't look at older data, because the formula requires both W/L data, and Elo rating for the Winning and Losing teams. The Elo ratings only existed since the last patch.

In regards to a player who has been winning 95% of matches while in a group (Pug Stomping), they are absolutely driving their Elo rating sky high. However it is possible players will have separate Elo ratings. They may have one for their solo play, and another for their group play. If that's the case then this 95% player will only get his face smooshed into the dirt after phase 3 while they are playing in groups, not solo.

PGI has not specifically said there will be separate solo and group ratings, but they have said there will be more than one rating per player.

#84 Targetloc

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:32 AM

View PostVassago Rain, on 16 February 2013 - 09:33 PM, said:



Illustrated.


Steeringwheel underhive. I couldn't stop laughing for 3 minutes.

Edited by Targetloc, 17 February 2013 - 07:37 AM.


#85 Murzao

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:33 AM

I'm always up for a good match win or lose...............I'm just happy I won't be paired with people that I shouldn't be.

Like yesterday where one baddie in a brand new mech all he had to do was to press x to stop on our cap to prevent capping from a heavily damaged Cicada....we were capping the enemy base at the time after wiping out the enemy team short handed by a few......and the guy literally did not stop, kept on running outside the basecap (he was in an assault of course why are superbads always in an assault) and firing 3000m behind the Cicada.

His ping was 100ish.

#86 MischiefSC

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:35 AM

View PostMycrus, on 17 February 2013 - 07:28 AM, said:


and to unveil my next trolling project...

a few weeks into ELO (when the MM has had more than enough to sample my exquisite OPness)... i'll start posting end of round screenshots while PUGging...

if i'm really a gimp with a stick i shouldn't run into the l33t pilots that puff & peacock themselves in the forums... or will I?

btw, i'm at 1 KDR / 1.4 WLR / Ave 590xp right now... i'm your quintessential average joe kerensky... except with a joystickzzz fetish...

and cue evil PUG laugh... err yelp...



I think the results will be shocking for pugs and the mid-high range of premades but in opposite directions. Us puglies. will suddenly find ourselves in matches with and against people who play close to our own skill and style. More communication, everyone knows to stick together and follow the plan, focus fire, etc. The premades will suddenly find themselves getting hammered again and again and again.

Don't forget that 12v12 is coming. Oh yes, yes indeed. Suddenly games will be won or lost based on pug performance. A premade is likely to only be 1/3rd of their team, not 1/2. Thus they'll need pug support to win games.

Someone linked to an old thread about people cheering for the rise of 8v8 and the 'freedom from pugs'. Oh irony, delicious irony.

#87 bloodnor

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:37 AM

I do not like the idea of Every match being an even fight i really hope they don't do that. The same amount of lights meds heavies and assaults no thanks. not every match you would come across in real life (it's meant to be a simulation so for arguments sake I'm saying real life) would be a fair fight. I don't want fair fights

Edited by bloodnor, 17 February 2013 - 07:39 AM.


#88 Mycrus

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:51 AM

View PostMischiefSC, on 17 February 2013 - 07:35 AM, said:

The premades will suddenly find themselves getting hammered again and again and again.


YES!

Many will complain of PUGs 'synch' dropping... muhahaha
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#89 p4r4g0n

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:54 AM

View Post80Bit, on 16 February 2013 - 09:30 PM, said:

snip ...


Don't completely agree with you on the list of things that you have listed as confirmed or implied by PGI but since it is only a couple of days more till the system goes live, I'll wait for the explanatory Command Chair post or patch notes.

I believe the one thing that could throw your projected outcome of the implementation of Elo rating in Phase 3 MM is the fact that we are not really clear on how teams are put together as I've mentioned in another thread -

1. Teams are randomly put together from solos and groups who have clicked "Launch" around the same instant and the matchmaker attempts to find a match based on Elo rating for the team; or

2. Teams are put together based on solos and groups of approximately equivalent rating who have clicked "Launch" around the same instant and the matchmaker then tries to find a match based on Elo rating of the team.

You may appreciate that these two approaches can give rise to totally different game outcomes.

Most of the Dev comments you are referring to were posted by Karl Berg in this thread.

Edited by p4r4g0n, 17 February 2013 - 07:54 AM.


#90 dal10

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:54 AM

key to maintaining a high win loss rating, run 4 medium mechs. very few (if any) premades would run this weight set up. so you will constantly head down til you run into 4 pugs worth of mediums.

there, i have already figured out how to game the system.

#91 Utilyan

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 08:03 AM

I mainly pilot a cicada with 4mgs and flamer. I got K/D .44. (i'm not familiar with whats good or not)

I don't care who I'm matched against although i love playing the underdog, but I would be concerned over how this elo thing might affect dibs on planet/faction stuff assuming one day it will come.

Is there a condition where im told whoa hold on you can't fight here or something you don't have the elo........Then forced to dust off a brutally guilt filled swayback know what I mean? :D

#92 Mycrus

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 08:10 AM

View PostUtilyan, on 17 February 2013 - 08:03 AM, said:

I mainly pilot a cicada with 4mgs and flamer. I got K/D .44. (i'm not familiar with whats good or not)


so we're clear, you talking about the mech or the KDR?

#93 Utilyan

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 08:23 AM

View PostMycrus, on 17 February 2013 - 08:10 AM, said:


so we're clear, you talking about the mech or the KDR?


The portion you quoted was just to point out on paper I assume I'm horribly skilled.

My main concern is if I got a low ELO is that going to give restrictions on the meta-aspect of factions/planets/loyalty points.

#94 Mycrus

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 08:28 AM

View PostUtilyan, on 17 February 2013 - 08:23 AM, said:

The portion you quoted was just to point out on paper I assume I'm horribly skilled. My main concern is if I got a low ELO is that going to give restrictions on the meta-aspect of factions/planets/loyalty points.


can't trolls ask simple questions anymore?

must all dice be loaded?

#95 MischiefSC

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 08:40 AM

View Postdal10, on 17 February 2013 - 07:54 AM, said:

key to maintaining a high win loss rating, run 4 medium mechs. very few (if any) premades would run this weight set up. so you will constantly head down til you run into 4 pugs worth of mediums.

there, i have already figured out how to game the system.



Not quite.

What will happen is you'll be dropped alongside 4 considerably less competent team-mates - also you're more likely to end up in a game against 4 D-DC atlases with 4 random pugs in hunchies and centurions than swing down into a low level Elo matchup.

The more you win the further up the Elo ladder you'll go and correspondingly the more often you'll end up in ROFLSTOMP losses which, due to the drastically higher Elo score of the people you're dropping with the less you'll lose for each loss.

So if you succeed in gaming the system for a bit you'll only get yourself into Elo hell - used as filler for matches between uber-elite teams who, when they beat you, won't cost you much if any Elo ranking so that you'll end up losing 3, 5, even 10 times each win you get.

The system will push you towards a flat Elo score. A point at which you are gaining and losing the same amount of Elo points on average. Ideally this is done by winning/losing 50% of your games against equally skilled opponents.

Gaming the system though puts you in Elo hell. What is that?

Well, you lose less points for losing to better opponents and gain less points beating inferior opponents. This helps the over-all balance.

If you're gaming the system though you'll end up in a situation where your Elo score is artificially inflated. Higher Elo ranks are less populous than average Elo so the best players will inevitably be matched with less skilled people but as close to their own rank as possible. The result being that if you push yourself up above mid range premade groups but don't have the skill to compete....

You'll drop against uber-teams. They will crush you. The win will gain them little (keeping them in the same range that dropped them with you to begin with) and the loss will cost you little, also keeping you in the same range. Wins against the pugs who are only a little bit less skilled than you will afford you a big jump - closer to your own Elo score so bigger reward.

Result? You'll lose several matches against vastly better opponents for each 'pugstomp' you get. The Elo value will remain constant but your win/loss will be skewed towards losing more than you're winning.

Gaming Elo will hurt you while padding the scores of your betters. Gain Elo via skill and competency so that when you do rise into the more talented ranges you'll be able to keep up. Otherwise you'll be food. Because once you get there it's very, very hard to get back out.

Elo hell. Minded by the infernal imps of elite players, populated with pug-farmers.

GLORIOUS.

#96 Utilyan

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 08:40 AM

View PostMycrus, on 17 February 2013 - 08:28 AM, said:


can't trolls ask simple questions anymore?

must all dice be loaded?



I apologize. I thought I was clear. Will having a bad ELO have restrictions on the meta-aspect like factions/planets?

Edited by Utilyan, 17 February 2013 - 08:41 AM.


#97 MischiefSC

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 08:45 AM

View PostMycrus, on 17 February 2013 - 07:51 AM, said:


YES!

Many will complain of PUGs 'synch' dropping... muhahaha



LOL. That's awesome. 'All PUGS are cheating now. They keep organizing and winning by dint of skill and coordination without VOIP. They should be forced to join teams and get into 8-mans and not ruin the game for the rest of us!'

Sync dropping pugs. You just wait. The thread will come. Late February, early March.

View PostUtilyan, on 17 February 2013 - 08:40 AM, said:



I apologize. I thought I was clear. Will having a bad ELO have restrictions on the meta-aspect like factions/planets?


By all accounts no.

Community Warfare is a ways away but the general guidelines indicate that if you're not in a player organization (who will all be mercenaries) then you'll drop as a pug representing house troops of whatever faction you want, or conversely in a random faction. You'll just be balanced into the overall team equation.

Remember, we're already going to 12v12 in March. In a year or two it may be 24v24 or so for teams, possibly even huge 48v48 matches. It's hard to say as it's a long way down the line. You'll be part of a team and you'll be every bit as involved as everyone else.

#98 Joseph Mallan

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 08:47 AM

I'm still expecting much QQ from both camps and much Face planting by the DEVs! :rolleyes: :wub: :D

#99 80Bit

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 08:56 AM

View Postdal10, on 17 February 2013 - 07:54 AM, said:

key to maintaining a high win loss rating, run 4 medium mechs. very few (if any) premades would run this weight set up. so you will constantly head down til you run into 4 pugs worth of mediums.

there, i have already figured out how to game the system.


Or you will just get matched up with a pre-made of whatever makup and 4 solo mediums at your correct Elo level...

#100 MischiefSC

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 08:57 AM

View PostJoseph Mallan, on 17 February 2013 - 08:47 AM, said:

I'm still expecting much QQ from both camps and much Face planting by the DEVs! :rolleyes: :wub: :D


My big concern is the being stuck aspect.

Changes in rating are going to involve a lot of wins/losses to see much of a shift. If you end up 'in the wrong place' for some reason (maybe you were in a guild who carried you and are now pugging) it's going to be hard to shift.

If you're very good but ranked too low you might end up bad enough off that your teammates hamstring you.

If you're not very good but too high up you'll see a diminishing returns trap - the excellent players will beat you but your ranking will drop very little due to it. It'll take a constant and ferocious beating to get down to where you belong.

Give it 60 days. A few hundred matches will even it out. There will still be swings but I think for the vast bulk of players it'll be fun.





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