315 replies to this topic

[Acid Phase]

I've been playing 10-15 matches in which I've seen the same players over 8 matches. "Same players", "Wow you again", "What is that like 5 times". I'm even waiting a good 5 minutes before pressing launch. Playerbase must be at an all time low.

ELO matchmaking is also fubar, as it is throwing brand new players into the mix with experienced players. PGI really has to do something about that. Otherwise, even their "target demographic" players are going to pull out.

[Jasen]

Yea, the 8 man queue is even worse. We were trying to practice LMS drop decks last night and fail to find more than we did find... Ended up getting the same team 3 times too, and this other team once.


(there is pretty much NOONE playing 8 mans... can't even practice drop decks.)

[zBaer]

No one wants to fight 8 PPC/Gauss stalkers...

[IceSerpent]

Acid Phase, on 13 June 2013 - 06:31 AM, said:

I've been playing 10-15 matches in which I've seen the same players over 8 matches. "Same players", "Wow you again", "What is that like 5 times". I'm even waiting a good 5 minutes before pressing launch. Playerbase must be at an all time low.

Does it really surprise you? During the last few months PGI has been breaking more and more stuff and not even attempting to fix things that already were broken. Naturally, players take a break and wait for "storm to pass".

Quote

ELO matchmaking is also fubar, as it is throwing brand new players into the mix with experienced players. PGI really has to do something about that. Otherwise, even their "target demographic" players are going to pull out.

When you only have a few players in the queue, there's nothing matchmaker can do about it even if it works flawlessly (which it doesn't). It's also unclear what their current target demographic is - most of BT fans have already pulled out and it looks like FPS crowd is starting to get bored too.

[JokerVictor]

I'd expect a few more hero mechs/skins in the next couple weeks, just to milk that cow a little harder. Plug will likely get pulled before CW happens (or CW will be delayed indefinitely like every other feature). Considering the utter lack of detail we have with regards to how the system that is supposed to launch in 3 months will actually operate, I'd say it's a safe bet to say it's vaporware.

Besides, it's a lot more cost effective to make promises you don't intend to keep than it is to actually develop features.

It's fairly obvious to me that they are doing just enough work to keep the diehards hopeful and spending money, but even that will only last so long. Your experience running into the same players again and again is a great indication of that.

Edited by JokerVictor, 13 June 2013 - 07:52 AM.

[Ayestes]

If you don't want to play the same group of players again and again, give yourself a 5 minute break after a match. When everyone that was just in the same game clicks the Launch button again, it's likely you will match against those same people. It'd take a massive population size to make much if any difference there.

Edited by Ayestes, 13 June 2013 - 07:44 AM.

[Gallowglas]

Elo matchmaking increases the likelihood that you'll see the same players, so there's effectively no way you can determine how many or how few players there are at any point in time.

That said, unless you're talking about 8-mans, my experience apparently is radically different than yours. While I occasionally see individual players repeat from match to match, I don't think I've ever seen the same exact team in anything outside of 8-mans. And if you're talking about 8-mans, it's because no one is playing 8-mans.

[IceSerpent]

Acid Phase, on 13 June 2013 - 06:31 AM, said:

I've been playing 10-15 matches in which I've seen the same players over 8 matches. "Same players", "Wow you again", "What is that like 5 times". I'm even waiting a good 5 minutes before pressing launch. Playerbase must be at an all time low.

Ayestes, on 13 June 2013 - 07:44 AM, said:

If you don't want to play the same group of players again and again, give yourself a 5 minute break after a match.

Somebody needs more coffee...

[Acid Phase]

Ayestes, on 13 June 2013 - 07:44 AM, said:

If you don't want to play the same group of players again and again, give yourself a 5 minute break after a match. When everyone that was just in the same game clicks the Launch button again, it's likely you will match against those same people. It'd take a massive population size to make much if any difference there.

I did say I took 5 minutes off before pressing the launch button.

Gallowglas, on 13 June 2013 - 07:47 AM, said:

That said, unless you're talking about 8-mans, my experience apparently is radically different than yours. While I occasionally see individual players repeat from match to match, I don't think I've ever seen the same exact team in anything outside of 8-mans. And if you're talking about 8-mans, it's because no one is playing 8-mans.

No. I don't do 8-man drops. I drop in solo everytime.

[Ayestes]

Acid Phase, on 13 June 2013 - 07:51 AM, said:

I did say I took 5 minutes off before pressing the launch button.

I missed that, I apologize. Given I haven't ever really been in anything close to a 5 minute queue before though, I'm curious to how much this is exaggerated even if it is subconsciously rather then consciously. Only thing I could come up with is those other people took a 5 minute break just to do the same thing. Unless you do have something along the lines of 5 minute queues at this time of day?

Edited by Ayestes, 13 June 2013 - 07:57 AM.

[Gallowglas]

Acid Phase, on 13 June 2013 - 07:51 AM, said:

No. I don't do 8-man drops. I drop in solo everytime.

Hmmm. Maybe it's a difference in Elo or something. Who knows?

[IceSerpent]

Ayestes, on 13 June 2013 - 07:56 AM, said:

I missed that, I apologize. Given I haven't ever really been in anything close to a 5 minute queue before though, I'm curious to how much this is exaggerated even if it is subconsciously rather then consciously. Only thing I could come up with is those other people took a 5 minute break just to do the same thing. Unless you do have something along the lines of 5 minute queues at this time of day?

Dude, you really need coffee - he is waiting for 5 minutes before hitting launch, not sitting in the queue for 5 minutes.

Here, this should help

[xDeityx]

Gallowglas, on 13 June 2013 - 07:47 AM, said:

Elo matchmaking increases the likelihood that you'll see the same players, so there's effectively no way you can determine how many or how few players there are at any point in time.

You can't definitively determine the population but you can get a feel for how many players are in your Elo range. And you can kind of get a feel for how big of a range is in your game by how long it takes the matchmaker to make a match. The longer it takes, the wider your Elo range is going to be. You can also tell how big the skill disparity is between players by spectating. In the same game I've seen a herpderp pilot who couldnt' drive or shoot and a pro who was snapping shots off at CTs with his arm weapons while using the CTRL key to aim and protect his CT at the same time.

You can also compare how many times you see the same faces now to how many times you saw the same faces a month or so ago. Highly unscientific, but it still can give you a feel for the population.

Also it's a bit telling that PGI used to display the number of players logged into the game in the bottom right corner of the client but now hides that data and refuses to answer questions about population other than with obvious lies. I remember Bryan Ekman claiming that there were "thousands" of games ongoing concurrently. Here's the quote from the Reddit AMA:

Quote

Nickrenfo2: Approximately how many games are being played at any given moment?

Quote

BryanEkman: I don't have all the number handy, but it's thousands (games). I'll have to do another stats post.

I find the "thousands" number very hard to believe because the minimum number that meets the definition of "thousands" is either 2,000 or 1,001 depending how pedantic you want to be. That would mean that there are either 32,000 players logged on at once (2,000 games x 16 players in each game), or 16,000 concurrent players if the number is just barely over 1,000, and I doubt we are even coming close to half of that. Maybe TOTAL players but not CONCURRENT players as Ekman is claiming. What also leads me to believe that quote is just PR lies is that he claims he "doesn't have the numbers handy." It's a Reddit thread, not a live interview, he could easily look them up before replying. He also says he'll do a stats post soon (that was over a month ago)...did I miss it?

[C E Dwyer]

I think it depends which time you log on to play, at certain times, you see the same names pop up and the same people disconecting(either deliberate, or crashing) enough to get coments.

The game spec don't help, I just upgraded my graphics card, and I mostly get a green status fps at medium settings now, where I'd hover above the red on low with my old, and while it wasn't a gamers card it played every game I've owned on med-max settings, except MWO.

This game is allways going to be a niche game.

The player stats pages gives slightly under 25k for numbers.

How many are still active I can't say, as it doesn't say
How many are hidden because of low match numbers ?

However with low numbers your going to get people that want to play mechwarrior, and are not just there because the game looks cool

[Gallowglas]

xDeityx, on 13 June 2013 - 08:08 AM, said:

You can't definitively determine the population but you can get a feel for how many players are in your Elo range. And you can kind of get a feel for how big of a range is in your game by how long it takes the matchmaker to make a match. The longer it takes, the wider your Elo range is going to be. You can also tell how big the skill disparity is between players by spectating. In the same game I've seen a herpderp pilot who couldnt' drive or shoot and a pro who was snapping shots off at CTs with his arm weapons while using the CTRL key to aim and protect his CT at the same time.

None of those are necessarily true. We don't know exactly all the algorithms used to prioritize matches. Having worked with matchmaking systems before, the only accurate read that can be really made is that the longer it takes, the fewer people there are which fit a specific criteria for which the matchmaker happens to be looking. We don't know what criteria it's trying to use at any given time though. There are also compounding factors like premade group sizes, weight classes, and whether people are actually queued up and available at the time of the matching (as opposed to already in a match), all of which we know the matchmaker considers and which can obfuscate any firm conclusion about numbers.

Ultimately, I just don't think you can draw any firm conclusions. Heck, there's even some grey area with regard to observed skill. I'm sure the Atlas who charged me last night in Frozen City Night thought I was a drooling *****, when the truth was that I had a cursor bug that dropped me to desktop right as I was attempting to flank. By the time I got back in game he was completely in my grill and I was all but dead.

Anyway, I'm not saying you guys are wrong. However, I build web-based experiments for a living and I've seen how careful you have to be to avoid false correlations.

Edited by Gallowglas, 13 June 2013 - 08:30 AM.

[Ryokens leap]

Player count surely can't be climbing, why would it with garbage mandatory trial mechs. All trial mechs should be player designed with proper heat management. I've got 4 friends to load this game and they all gave up because of trials. I even let them run my mechs to show them how great it can be if they just stick it out for 25 matches then buy a mech of their own. How PGI can be so obtuse in regards to capturing new players is unbelievable. I recently watched a PGI team play on Twitch and it sounded like none of them know anything about Mechwarrior or Battletech. They sounded like a bunch of 20 year olds, jacked up on Red Bull who were playing Mario Kart. The c-bill bonus on trials is great but it doesn't compensate for frustrating game play experience that turns people off in the first 5 matches.

[Kaldor]

zBaer, on 13 June 2013 - 07:22 AM, said:

No one wants to fight 8 PPC/Gauss stalkers...

Yep. When we do drop 8man, once a week or so, we avoid the assault queue like the plague. At least this way we have a choice whether or not we want to engage the group of 6 assaults and 2 lights, or just kill their lights, and cap them out.

[Dracol]

Acid Phase, on 13 June 2013 - 06:31 AM, said:

I've been playing 10-15 matches in which I've seen the same players over 8 matches. "Same players", "Wow you again", "What is that like 5 times". I'm even waiting a good 5 minutes before pressing launch. Playerbase must be at an all time low.

ELO matchmaking is also fubar, as it is throwing brand new players into the mix with experienced players. PGI really has to do something about that. Otherwise, even their "target demographic" players are going to pull out.

10am on a Thursday morning is not the most popular playing time for a game targeted at the late 20s / early 30s crowd. From work we can only usually post to forums.

[xDeityx]

Gallowglas, on 13 June 2013 - 08:27 AM, said:

None of those are necessarily true. We don't know exactly all the algorithms used to prioritize matches. Having worked with matchmaking systems before, the only accurate read that can be really made is that the longer it takes, the fewer people there are which fit a specific criteria for which the matchmaker happens to be looking. We don't know what criteria it's trying to use at any given time though. There are also compounding factors like premade group sizes, weight classes, and whether people are actually queued up and available at the time of the matching (as opposed to already in a match), all of which we know the matchmaker considers and which can obfuscate any firm conclusion about numbers.

Ultimately, I just don't think you can draw any firm conclusions. Heck, there's even some grey area with regard to observed skill. I'm sure the Atlas who charged me last night in Frozen City Night thought I was a drooling *****, when the truth was that I had a cursor bug that dropped me to desktop right as I was attempting to flank. By the time I got back in game he was completely in my grill and I was all but dead.

Anyway, I'm not saying you guys are wrong. However, I build web-based experiments for a living and I've seen how careful you have to be to avoid false correlations.

I agree, you can't draw any hard conclusions. But what we have is a whole lot of circumstantial evidence that adds up to paint a pretty convincing picture. It wouldn't hold up in a court of law or science but what I put in my post as well as the poor quality of the game's balance lately combined with all the outstanding bugs and PGI's general obliviousness to the "pulse" of their game leads me to believe that in all likelihood our numbers are looking more and more grim.

I'm just really hoping that the Community Warfare that we know nothing about isn't going to turn out to be vaporware. CW is one of the biggest items on the upcoming feature list that will hopefully restore some of the lost population.

[Gamgee]

Game isn't even out of beta and it's already starting to die. *sigh* I have a feeling MWO is going to be the first major casualty of the F2P market.