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Lanchester's N-Squared Laws (Or Why Disconnects Matter More Than You Think)


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#21 Hythos

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Posted 04 July 2013 - 04:51 PM

Some people are missing the point.
Any time two opposing forces engage, a similar Law applies... In an 8v8 encounter, this condition of potential output applies (though of course, by a composite of damage-absorption vs damage-output.)

#22 PanzerMagier

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Posted 04 July 2013 - 05:33 PM

All that Op is saying is: If you think 7v8 isn't unbalanced and one team is immediately at a serious disadvantage, then you haven't been paying attention.

#23 Diablobo

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Posted 04 July 2013 - 07:27 PM

I think there should be a system where people can be dropped into a match within the first 30 seconds or so to replace disconnects.

#24 Donnie Silveray

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Posted 04 July 2013 - 07:48 PM

View PostDiablobo, on 04 July 2013 - 07:27 PM, said:

I think there should be a system where people can be dropped into a match within the first 30 seconds or so to replace disconnects.


I've heard a MOBA type game called Rise of Immortals has a sort of system where players can drop into a game that lost a player. MOBA games often suffer a similar issue here that in a 4v5 or pray to god it never happens... a 3v5 the odds are severely stacked against you. Rise of Immortals attempts to rectify this by allowing players to join ongoing matches. Whether this helps or not, I don't know. I've not played the game any time recently or am confident I could play it well. I have read in a review that said reviewer believed it to be a great idea and one that has the capability of doing a great deal of good in these unfair moments.

#25 William Mountbank

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Posted 04 July 2013 - 11:47 PM

View PostDiablobo, on 04 July 2013 - 07:27 PM, said:

I think there should be a system where people can be dropped into a match within the first 30 seconds or so to replace disconnects.


Or even, after restarting their client, that disconnects can log back into their match. I would say 75% of my discons occur when the client is loading textures or whatnot at the beginning of the drop.

#26 MustrumRidcully

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Posted 05 July 2013 - 02:21 AM

I think this is also one of the reasons why respawns in multiplayer games are popular, even if they are "unrealistic".

Respawning means a loss means you only temporarily suffer a significant blow to your team's effectiveness. It makes it a bit more likely to recover and turn the tide of the battle.

I tend to think the game could end if the match ends with a 4 point team size difference. (E.g. if one team has 4 more survivors than the other, that team has won.). That's probably where a company commander should order a retreat to avoid the inevitable. (I don't want Repair & Rearm ever again, but should it happen despite my wishes, I want a retreat option. Pseudo Ecomonics and fights to the bitter end don't work well together.)

#27 Karl Streiger

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Posted 05 July 2013 - 02:26 AM

32 vs 64 - the glory is mine.

Thats the reason why stick together is so obvious the most simple way - to not get completely wiped out.

Getting the advantage in numbers in fire power at a specific part of the battlefield is the core tactic of BT. Curent Meta however have helped a lot that people had forget that.

#28 Adridos

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Posted 05 July 2013 - 02:35 AM

Wouldn't it be a bit more accurate if you counted each weapon as a separate entity?

After all, riflemenhad only had one gun to shoot with and the odds will be less kind to you if a 4 PPC Stalker drops out than if it was a LL Spider instead.

#29 Karl Streiger

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Posted 05 July 2013 - 02:38 AM

View PostAdridos, on 05 July 2013 - 02:35 AM, said:

Wouldn't it be a bit more accurate if you counted each weapon as a separate entity?

After all, riflemenhad only had one gun to shoot with and the odds will be less kind to you if a 4 PPC Stalker drops out than if it was a LL Spider instead.

Maybe the potential missing damage...

If used right - the Spider may be as important as the 4PPC Stalker - not in front vs front - but what if this spider slips behind

Edited by Karl Streiger, 05 July 2013 - 02:39 AM.


#30 Dalziel Hasek Davion

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Posted 05 July 2013 - 02:46 AM

View PostAdridos, on 05 July 2013 - 02:35 AM, said:

Wouldn't it be a bit more accurate if you counted each weapon as a separate entity?

After all, riflemenhad only had one gun to shoot with and the odds will be less kind to you if a 4 PPC Stalker drops out than if it was a LL Spider instead.


Lanchester's model is necessarily simplistic. As soon as you start to refine it, you realize that there are too many variables to do anything other than an empirical analysis. You are correct - there is some factor based on scale of available firepower - influenced by rate of fire, heat, accuracy, spread, range. However there seems to be no way to refine the model to apply it to MWO without it becoming a chaotic non-linear system from a mathematical point of view.

#31 Hawks

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Posted 06 July 2013 - 01:57 PM

I'll bump this just to point out that one ray of sunshine is that when (if!) we get 12v12 matches, the loss of a single mech for whatever reason will tend to be less disastrous, relatively speaking, than it is at the moment.





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