142 replies to this topic

[FatBabyThompkins]

Summary: 43% increase in match length from sample average, 12-16% reduction in performance rewards, 70-80% reduction in salvage rewards, higher risk (skewing your win/loss towards loss over win and thereby reducing your CBill mean) equate to a significant reduction in CBill revenue. To break even with the old system per match, you need to do 115 more damage, kill one more mech, get 5 more assists/savior/defensive kills, and 2 spot/TAG/NARC/Component bonuses (based upon a game with 3 kills, 4 assists, 4 components, 600 damage, 2 spots, 40k salvage bonus in 8 vs. 8).

Update: Paul says he wanted a general C-Bill revenue reduction, which is opposed to the official patch notes, "- CB rewards have been adjusted to compensate for the additional 4 players on the battlefield.". Discussion can be found here: http://mwomercs.com/...rning-too-much/

Combined research
Performance numbers
You have likely seen the reduction in performance rewards, which equate to 10-15%.

Spoiler

	Conquest			Assault
	New	Old	PerCh	New	Old	PerCh
Win	25000	25000	0%	25000	25000	0%
Loss	25000	25000	0%	25000	25000	0%
Tie	25000	25000	0%	25000	25000	0%
Kill	2099	2500	16.04%	4300	5000	14%
Assist	3200	3750	14.67%	6500	7500	13.33%
DefKill	6500	7500	13.33%	6500	7500	13.33%
Savior	6500	7500	13.33%	6500	7500	13.33%
Component	1100	1250	12%	2099	2500	16.04%
Damage	21	25	16%	21	25	16%
Spot	1100	1250	12%	1100	1250	12%
Tag/Narc	1100	1250	12%	1100	1250	12%
Resource	50	50	0%
Avg			9.11%			10.48%

Salvage Study
You may not have seen, but reasoned the reduction to salvage was 60-80%.

Spoiler

4/19/2013: Assault, 2 kills, 5 assists, 42,825 salvage
Unknown: Assault, 4 kills, 2 assists, 1437 damage, 22,248 salvage
3/1/2013: Assault, 3 kills, 5 assists, 478 damage, 32,066 salvage
4/1/2013: Assault, 1 kill, 6 assists, 851 damage, 59,942 salvage
4/4/2013: Conquest, 1 kill, 7 assists, 407 damage, 36,452 salvage
5/16/2013: ??, 1 kill, 5 assists, 616 damage, 44,637 salvage
'': Assault, 2 kills, 4 assists, 461 damage, 37,198 salvage

Sample average: 39,338
Current salvage rates are 8-12k per win.

Time study

Spoiler

I recorded all of the times from the end of matches on the twitch.tv feeds for 7/15, 7/16 before the patch and 8/6 and 8/10 after the patch. Below is a table with the results.

Highlights:

• Remove highest and lowest from both
  
• 43.1% increase in match length in sample average
  
• Need much more data points to confirm

	Before Patch	After Patch
	0:05:50	0:07:59
	0:06:00	0:07:25
	0:04:10	0:07:02
	0:06:20	0:08:01
	0:04:53	0:08:01
	0:04:42	0:09:29
	0:15:00	0:10:06
	0:05:18	0:09:15
	0:05:42	0:09:09
	0:06:06	0:06:52
	0:05:25	0:09:31
	0:06:38	0:07:17
	0:05:21	0:08:32
	0:06:42	0:09:30
	0:04:09	0:08:10
	0:05:09	0:08:22
	0:07:41	0:07:11
	0:07:11	0:07:47
	0:05:39	0:07:02
	0:03:41	0:09:29
	0:05:08	0:10:28
	0:10:33	0:05:48
	0:04:42
	0:04:35
	0:04:32
	0:05:00
	0:07:44
Avg.	0:05:48	0:08:18
Min.	0:04:09	0:06:52
Max.	0:10:53	0:10:06
StDev	0:01:24	0:01:01

Now let's say you average 100k CBills per game (pre patch). A bad loss would usually be in the 30k (no kills, no assist, 200 dmg) to 50k range with good wins in the 150k (3 kills, 4 assists, 4 component, 600 damage, 2 spots, 50k salvage) to 170k range giving you your total 100k CBills per game average. (For simplicity here, let us ignore that it is much easier to get the 30k loss than the 170k win, thus we do not have symmetrical distribution).

In the new system you're receiving 29.2k (no kills, no assists, 200 dmg) to 45k on bad losses and only 99k (3 kills, 4 assists, 4 component, 600 damage, 2 spots, 10k salvage) to 112k for those good wins. Notice the good wins are seeing a 34% reduction in revenue while losses are seeing 2.6% reduction.

But you have more mechs to fight and can get more monies that way! Not exactly. First, you're receiving 12-16% less per performance stat. Secondly, you have to make up the difference of 30k salvage on the win. So, you already have to perform 12-16% better than before just to break even on performance. Mathmatically, if you did 600 damage on average before, you now need to do 715 on average and get 1 more kill and 1 more assist to break even on performance from before.

But then have to get the equivalent of 4.6 additional assists/savior/defensive kills as well to make up the additional 30k of salvage. Basically, you have to at least tag those 4 new mechs on the field to get the assist bonus and perform 12-16% better than before and then find another 2 spots. And that just about breaks you even to previous numbers.

To summarize, you now need to do 115 more damage, get 1 more kill, 5 more assists/defense/savior kills and 2 more spots/tag/narc/components to break even from before. It is not just 12-16% better in one category, but all categories and then overcome a 30k deficit on those reduced performance numbers.

If the idea behind 12 vs. 12 was to split lances apart so several scrums were occurring, how can anyone realistically, and more important, ethically, do this? My best game (to try and hit all mechs) as a light mech saw 0 kills, 11 assists. I was looking to tag mechs, yet still perform as needed. Most screen shots I've seen have the excellent players only getting shots on about 10 mechs (some combination of kills and assists that equate to 10). This leads me to conclude that very few, if any, are achieving the assist/defense/savior kills necessary to recoup the reduction.

You then realize matches are taking longer (I've guesstimated the average going from 7 to 10 minutes ~6 minutes in 8 vs 8 to ~8 min in 12 vs 12). That is a 33% increase in match length (sample above shows closer to 43%). If you don't stay the entire time, you lose your salvage (at least from what I've read, have not independently verified this myself).

Play is also riskier where one mistake can severely cripple or destroy your mech, further skewing the win/loss distribution towards loss frequency (that is, a bad loss is much easier now to obtain than that great win). Your CBill/match average will go down based upon this fact alone.

Ultimately, matches are 43% longer on sample average, total rewards are 10-30% lower, and with increased risk. When combined, we are seeing a significant reduction in CBills/hour. The higher your win/loss ratio, the more impact you are seeing as salvage was a significant portion of your income. Low win/loss ratio players with average or below average performance are not likely to see much of a change.

I honestly do not know how to get this into the eyes of the developers. The math does not lie. There are some assumptions above (and I'm trying to reduce those assumptions as we go on), but the results do not change much as the majority of the reduction is in areas we, the players, have no realistic or ethical control over (salvage reduction, 12-16% increase in performance required, increased match length).

Edited by FatBabyThompkins, 14 August 2013 - 06:12 AM.

[El Bandito]

There are several possible explanations.

1. The devs were too dumb to fully understand their own system. I hope they will revert some nerfs after they come to their senses.

2. The devs knew but hoped we wouldn't know. They want us to spend more MC.

3. The devs knew but this is "just a small part of their long term plan" to introduce CW rewards. (highly unlikely, judging from the way they handled Pulse Lasers and SSRM2)

Either way, we are screwed in the short run.

Edited by El Bandito, 09 August 2013 - 04:51 PM.

[Vassago Rain]

And this is the true reason we can't have nice things.

[The Justicar]

Basically, they straight up broke it.

[Biglead]

Or buy a Hero mech and get your 30% back.


Eh? Eh? You see what they did there?

Edited by Biglead, 09 August 2013 - 01:42 PM.

[Hellcat420]

this was just an underhanded way to get us to buy premium time(which is a total ripoff to begin with). makes me less likely to purchase any premium time.

[GODzillaGSPB]

Hellcat420, on 09 August 2013 - 02:17 PM, said:

this was just an underhanded way to get us to buy premium time(which is a total ripoff to begin with). makes me less likely to purchase any premium time.

Playing for cbills is now a tedious, slow and frustrating process. With premium.

[Team Leader]

DANGIT PGI


FIX ITTTTTT

Edited by Team Leader, 09 August 2013 - 02:46 PM.

[KuruptU4Fun]

Posting this thread without using the search button first was Unjustified. Here's Why...





If you want your 30% back, buy some premium time and ensure this game will be around for a while.

If you don't want it, but still like playing then don't spend a dime on this game.

If you're really offended by losing a little bit of profit, then just walk away...

Edited by KuruptU4Fun, 09 August 2013 - 03:00 PM.

[FatBabyThompkins]

KuruptU4Fun, on 09 August 2013 - 02:57 PM, said:

Posting this thread without using the search button first was Unjustified. Here's Why...





If you want your 30% back, buy some premium time and ensure this game will be around for a while.

If you don't want it, but still like playing then don't spend a dime on this game.

If you're really offended by losing a little bit of profit, then just walk away...

Sir/Ma'am, I don't know what Kool-Aid you're drinking, but this is definitely not a little profit nerf. This equates to a 50% reduction in CBill revenue. 10%? Ok, I can buy that as a small loss in profit. 50%? Not even close.

And the purpose of this post was to put all of the relevant information people need to know about this reduction in one place. It outlines the performance based number reductions, the salvage reduction, how that can be interpreted in real action and then further explains how increased time and risk are also reduction factors to the overall 50% reduction. This most definitely hurts the new and mostly new (myself) players.

[xCico]

Its like they pushing away players from this game, they really need to back old cbill rewards -.-

[KuruptU4Fun]

FatBabyThompkins, on 09 August 2013 - 03:07 PM, said:

Sir/Ma'am, I don't know what Kool-Aid you're drinking, but this is definitely not a little profit nerf. This equates to a 50% reduction in CBill revenue. 10%? Ok, I can buy that as a small loss in profit. 50%? Not even close.

And the purpose of this post was to put all of the relevant information people need to know about this reduction in one place. It outlines the performance based number reductions, the salvage reduction, how that can be interpreted in real action and then further explains how increased time and risk are also reduction factors to the overall 50% reduction. This most definitely hurts the new and mostly new (myself) players.

All the F2P casual games on iOS and Android use the same money making models. So why is this any different? You want to make the money you were used to making before, spend money. If you don't then don't spend money. If you'd rather buy a hero mech and earn 25% more in c-bills great. If you'd rather make more c-bills AND XP buy premium time.

19cico96, on 09 August 2013 - 03:09 PM, said:

Its like they pushing away players from this game, they really need to back old cbill rewards -.-

Old C-bill rewards didn't make PGI any money, this does.

People should take a minute and stop looking at how this issue screws over how they play. But instead how PGI is using it to make money so they can play longer... Because otherwise, they close shop and we don't play at all.

Edited by KuruptU4Fun, 09 August 2013 - 03:41 PM.

[AnnoyingCat]

all you space money are belong to PGI

[Astrolux]

KuruptU4Fun, on 09 August 2013 - 03:38 PM, said:

All the F2P casual games on iOS and Android use the same money making models. So why is this any different? You want to make the money you were used to making before, spend money. If you don't then don't spend money. If you'd rather buy a hero mech and earn 25% more in c-bills great. If you'd rather make more c-bills AND XP buy premium time.



Old C-bill rewards didn't make PGI any money, this does.

People should take a minute and stop looking at how this issue screws over how they play. But instead how PGI is using it to make money so they can play longer... Because otherwise, they close shop and we don't play at all.

This game is already heavily monetized, if PGI really needs to do changes like this to get people to spend money, the game is in way more trouble than most people think.

[KuruptU4Fun]

Astrolux, on 09 August 2013 - 03:47 PM, said:

This game is already heavily monetized, if PGI really needs to do changes like this to get people to spend money, the game is in way more trouble than most people think.

Play Candy Crush Saga and see just how much a game can be monetized...

[Royalewithcheese]

I love how they literally have no idea how grinding works in a game they have the metrics for. C-bills per [insert unit of time here] matters more than c-bills per match because last time I checked people measured time in seconds/minutes/hours/etc not in online robot matches.

[FatBabyThompkins]

KuruptU4Fun, on 09 August 2013 - 03:38 PM, said:

All the F2P casual games on iOS and Android use the same money making models. So why is this any different? You want to make the money you were used to making before, spend money. If you don't then don't spend money. If you'd rather buy a hero mech and earn 25% more in c-bills great. If you'd rather make more c-bills AND XP buy premium time.



Old C-bill rewards didn't make PGI any money, this does.

People should take a minute and stop looking at how this issue screws over how they play. But instead how PGI is using it to make money so they can play longer... Because otherwise, they close shop and we don't play at all.

Already have both (several hero's and premium), so thank you for jumping to conclusions

But let us examine your argument. It is saying that we should be happy with what we're given. That if we want more, we should spend real money. So, the logical conclusion of that argument is, what is the minimum we should be happy with? The money we were making pre patch? The 50% reduction we just saw? How about a 75% or 99%? What number constitutes "happy"?

Or you just want to monetize everything? Why not just go to a subscription if it take only money to play? That's another logical conclusion of your argument.

KuruptU4Fun, on 09 August 2013 - 03:38 PM, said:

Old C-bill rewards didn't make PGI any money, this does.

Please prove both of those premises. Where did PGI say they aren't making money off of the old CBill rewards? They said the reduction was because we would be making more in 12 vs. 12, not because they weren't making money due to too high CBill rewards. Show me that this new system makes PGI more. Are you so certain new players will spend money? And that those new players will continue to spend money? Please show me your marketing data that shows that at certain CBill reward levels you'll see X number of new customers per week with Y number of repeat customers.

So, I've stopped and taken a minute (or more, really) to see how this affects my play. This entire topic, and several of my others, are to outline exactly how your play is affected, both in a direct and indirect way.

And you do realize, if PGI cannot retain customers, lights go out as well, right? If all people do is come in, see the grind through rose color glasses, buy some MC and then abandon ship a few weeks later because the true grind is presented, then how can PGI sustain a business?

[xCico]

KuruptU4Fun, on 09 August 2013 - 03:38 PM, said:

.



Old C-bill rewards didn't make PGI any money, this does.

People should take a minute and stop looking at how this issue screws over how they play. But instead how PGI is using it to make money so they can play longer... Because otherwise, they close shop and we don't play at all.

And BAM, this game is evoluting to P2W. If they dont fix it, goodbye folks.
But damn, I just bought 6button mice, just for this game :/

Edited by 19cico96, 09 August 2013 - 04:36 PM.

[General Taskeen]

Biglead, on 09 August 2013 - 01:41 PM, said:

Or buy a Hero mech and get your 30% back.


Eh? Eh? You see what they did there?

Ah yes, the GB with the huge CT. It is the "UnAwesome" of Mediums. Get a little bit more for your loss and getting cored in the first 3 minutes.

Edited by General Taskeen, 09 August 2013 - 04:44 PM.

[Angel of Annihilation]

FatBabyThompkins, on 09 August 2013 - 07:42 AM, said:

Summary: 20-40% increase in match length, 10-30% reduction in match rewards, higher risk (skewing your win/loss towards loss over win and thereby reducing your CBill mean) equate to a significant reduction in CBill revenue. To break even with the old system, you need to do 115 more damage, kill one more mech, get 5 more assists/savior/defensive kills, and 2 spot/TAG/NARC/Component bonuses (based upon a great game with 3 kills, 4 assists, 4 components, 600 damage, 2 spots, 40k salvage bonus in 8 vs. 8)

Totally agree. I have to pretty much perform twice as good in a much less survivable environment to even approach the same rewards I got prior to the patch.

Pre-patch I considered a good match one where I got 2 kills, 3 Assists and around 500 damage. That would have easily netted me 225k, maybe more in the way of c-bills. Now it takes 7 kills, 3 assists and 500 damage to earn the same reward.

Additionally, where getting those 2 kills, 3 assist, 500 damage matches for 200k more more C-bill rewards were quite common for me in 8 vs 8, I am barely averageing 1 kill and 250 damage a match anymore due to so much concentrated firepower being flung around. Sure I get a few more assists, it is hard not to but that doesn't make up for everything else that is down.

I think now I am probably averaging around 130k for a good win, and 60k for a bad loss. Down from 200k for a good win and 90k for a bad loss when all factors are considered.