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Battle Of Tukayyid Question


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#241 CyclonerM

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 12:49 PM

View PostKay Wolf, on 02 December 2013 - 12:02 PM, said:

I'm afraid I still have to throw up the BS flag on this one. Kerensky would have had hundreds of thousands, not 1.5 million and, even if he'd had the 1.5 million, that's one-half of a percentage point of our own U.S. population, and that would not be enough people to support the sort of industry, typical non-danger-based growth rates in place, for them to come back after that short an amount of time.




U dare say a canon sourcebook is wrong? :P However, i would point out that , even if with a terrible civil war, they still had about 300 years to colonize the planets, build industry and develope new technology (which was actually an evolution of Star League era tech, as later claimed in the sourcebook) .

#242 pbiggz

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 12:52 PM

The formative years for the clans were allegedly extremely harsh as the pentagon worlds and the worlds of the kerensky cluster are considered only marginally habitable in comparison to worlds of the Inner Sphere.

#243 Threat Doc

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 01:08 PM

View Postpbiggz, on 02 December 2013 - 12:52 PM, said:

The formative years for the clans were allegedly extremely harsh as the pentagon worlds and the worlds of the kerensky cluster are considered only marginally habitable in comparison to worlds of the Inner Sphere.
First, the Rim World's armies, though large and well-armed, were no match for the SLDF. Second, very few worlds actually supported the Usurper during that war, so he really didn't have all that many resources to count on. Third, if I remember reading correctly, it was a pitched fight and cost the SLDF, which was the ONLY sanctioned army of that time in the Hegemony, a great deal in materials and manpower. Because of all of this, the exodus forces were still only able to take a couple of hundred regiments. One regiment is 324 MechWarrior's. With support personnel per MechWarrior, you're talking 650 people, roughly, including the MechWarrior's of the regiment. This includes techs, scientists, medical, administrative, command and control, etc.

So 650 x 300 (regiments; just throwing this out there) = 195,000 folks. That's a liberal estimate. How many thousands do you think Kerensky invited and/or coerced to go along with him? How much in the way of materials, based on what's available in the TROs, do you believe Kerensky would have been able to take with him? That's why the BS flag went up.

Finally, the rate of attrition on the pentagon worlds, being as marginally habitable as they are -and they WERE much worse-, due to disease, animal attacks -the Clans DO get their names from beasties on the habitable worlds, after all, and generally for good reason-, frustration and depression, would have been huge. Throw in Nikolas' civil war after Aleksandr died, and you have just a great soup for the Clans NOT being able to come back within three-hundred years.

It just does NOT make sense.

#244 CyclonerM

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 01:25 PM

Your estimate is quite correct... If you count only the Battlemech regiments. Do you know how many are 1000 Jumpships? ;)
Posted Image

According to your estimate of 650 people for regiment, that would be a total of more than 455000 people.. Without counting pre-fabricated factories (which helped much setting up basic industry) and buildings, plus 'Mechs, plus Aerospace Fighters, plus tanks, plus 1000+ JumpShips (and relative crews!), 400 WarShips and crews, this 1.5 million invited/forced.. But after all, why are we arguing? The answer is just a few lines below :wub:

2+4= 6 millions people following the dream of General Kerensky!


And this was a fraction of the strength the SLDF had before the rebellions!

#245 Threat Doc

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 03:04 PM

View Postpbiggz, on 02 December 2013 - 12:42 PM, said:

There is a reason Alexandr Kerensky was so eager to remove the SLDF from the Inner Sphere once he knew that war was coming.
Yes, but that reason had NOTHING to do with Stefan Amaris. It was about each member of the Hegemony council wanting claim first lordship.

View PostDevillin, on 02 December 2013 - 12:43 PM, said:

When Rhonda Snord went to reclaim it, the Falcons fought them for it, and again lost. Only this time they lost omnimechs and warriors as well
You do remember that Snord's Irregulars/Rhonda's Irregulars had also originated with the Clans, right?

#246 pbiggz

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 03:07 PM

View PostKay Wolf, on 02 December 2013 - 03:04 PM, said:

Yes, but that reason had NOTHING to do with Stefan Amaris. It was about each member of the Hegemony council wanting claim first lordship.


Never said it did, point I was making was that the SLDF was mind-bogglingly huge, and presented a very real threat to the inner sphere if it was abused by the council lords.

#247 Threat Doc

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 04:03 PM

Well, if we ever get multiple periods (Amaris War, 3rd Succession War, 4th, War of '39, Clan Invasion, FedCom Civil War), I would love to see just HOW big they were supposed to be.

#248 pbiggz

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 04:13 PM

The sheer scale is something that people dont always notice about the SLDF, and it's something we dont really see after the first and second succession wars. The clan invasion was a return to larger scale conflicts but it still didn't quite capture the scale due to the division of the invaders.

#249 Skylarr

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 05:14 PM

View Postpbiggz, on 02 December 2013 - 03:07 PM, said:


Never said it did, point I was making was that the SLDF was mind-bogglingly huge, and presented a very real threat to the inner sphere if it was abused by the council lords.



Quote

Star League Defense Force

At the birth of the Star League, the SLDF was comprised of ~270 regiments of ground forces (conventional armor, infantry and BattleMechs), as well as a fleet of greater than 500 capital vessels. At the outset of the Reunification War the SLDF was divided into 10 Corps. Each Corp was named based on its theater of operations and recruitment:

Quote

A Corps consisted of 1-3 BattleMech Divisions, 2-7 Infantry Divisions, several Independent Regiments, as well as its own WarShips and transports. Each Corps was usually assigned 30 worlds to protect, though that number could go as high as 100.


By 2764, the SLDF had over 15,000 regiments and just as many WarShips, JumpShips and DropShips. This force was organized into 125 BattleMech divisions, 200 mechanized infantry divisions, 75 jump infantry divisions, and 50 infantry divisions, with the rest fighting as independent regiments. These formations were further combined into 20 armies divided between several military regions.


#250 Strum Wealh

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 06:33 PM

View PostCyclonerM, on 02 December 2013 - 01:25 PM, said:

Your estimate is quite correct... If you count only the Battlemech regiments. Do you know how many are 1000 Jumpships? :rolleyes:
Posted Image

According to your estimate of 650 people for regiment, that would be a total of more than 455000 people.. Without counting pre-fabricated factories (which helped much setting up basic industry) and buildings, plus 'Mechs, plus Aerospace Fighters, plus tanks, plus 1000+ JumpShips (and relative crews!), 400 WarShips and crews, this 1.5 million invited/forced.. But after all, why are we arguing? The answer is just a few lines below :wub:

2+4= 6 millions people following the dream of General Kerensky!


And this was a fraction of the strength the SLDF had before the rebellions!

To add a bit of perspective:
  • The populations of New York City (not the New York Metropolitan Area, but NYC itself) and London (not the metropolitan area, but the City of London itself) as of 2012 were each approximately 8.3 million.
  • The US Armed Forces (all branches, combined) as of early 2013 had a total of roughly 2.3 million personnel (including active personnel, reserve personnel, and paramilitary personnel). (source)
Were it not for the Clans' eventual extensive use of genetic engineering and related technologies, such concepts as minimum viable population (MVP) and effective population size (EPS) might have had more of an impact into the Invasion Era.

Though, even then, MVP would likely be somewhere in the mid-to-high single-digit thousands (so, six million persons should be more than enough for the SLDF-in-Exile from a genetics standpoint; sources), with EPS falling into roughly the same range as MVP (sources).
Combined with access to advanced pre-fabricated technologies and mobile manufacturing equipment & the SLDF equivalent of the USACE, setting up and maintaining settlements would have been well within the realm of the SLDF-in-Exile's capabilities (provided the planet(oid)s had sufficient gravity to retain an atmosphere, a breathable atmosphere, and were at a reasonable temperature and level of geological activity).

Where the reasonableness/sensibility falls apart, though, is where this foundling civilization - ostensibly made up primarily of highly-educated and disciplined military personnel with the resolve to remove their combat expertise and war-making materials from the reach of humanity-at-large - decides to go neo-tribal, fracture into almost two-dozen smaller groups, and adopt the names and behaviors of fancifully-named animal totems... ;)

Edited by Strum Wealh, 02 December 2013 - 06:46 PM.


#251 pbiggz

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 06:57 PM

They justify that by saying the pentagon civil war essentially was a byproduct of human nature, and nicholas kerensky feared that his second exodus would end in a war the same way the first one did, so it forced them to find a solution to human nature, and clan society was their answer. Embed conflict into the very fabric of your society. Master it, instead of letting it consume you. That was nicholas kerensky's aim.

He knew that conflict among his clans was inevitable, so he placed extremely strict controls on the nature by which those conflicts could be executed in order to both maximize the military effectiveness of the clans and minimize waste and collateral damage, which had been widespread during the amaris civil war that allegedly had a profound impact on him in his formative years prior to the exile.

The use of animal totems and neo-tribal/mongol khanate/shogunate japan concepts is purely the authors artistic license, there isn't much else that would explain that.

Edited by pbiggz, 02 December 2013 - 07:00 PM.


#252 Guido

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 07:46 PM

View PostKay Wolf, on 02 December 2013 - 09:17 AM, said:

This is actually as good a question as...

How could between 80 - 85% of the Star League Defense Forces boost out to worlds more than a year away from the furthest Periphery state, with no factories, a few engineers and scientists, no ability to extract minerals nor refine them once extracted, almost kill one-another in a mass civil war, which prompted the creation of the Clans and the 300 blood names, and then rise less than two-hundred years after that to be a complete civilization with manufacturing and scientific capabilities to far-exceed over a thousand years of development on around 2000 worlds, with a vast army, only one-fourth of which was required to be able to take and hold over 100 worlds within a few months, to be the greatest threat the Inner Sphere has ever seen?


I realize that's a big question, but it has a very simple answer...

It's a science fiction game of giant hokey-robot combat.


While true that it's a science fiction game of "giant hokey-robot combat", this question isn't as good a question as questioning the tactical logic of the battle of Tukayyid. You can answer your question and stay within the realm of possibility.

Battletech history specifically states that the first two Succession Wars forsake the Ares Conventions and absolutely decimated industries, civilian populations (specifically skilled civilians), and information databases, along with military equipment and knowledgeable personnel via weapons like orbital bombardments and nuclear warheads, not to mention specific targeting of scientists and jumpships. Reversal of technology is part of what happens when someone pulls all the morality from a war and releases literally any horror he/she can onto his/her enemies to win it, like completely breaking industrial capabilities by nuking all facilities in enemy territory and slaughtering entire worlds of civilians.

Clans never had to suffer that because the Kerensky exodus was essentially a departure of moral military personnel who didn't want to be used as a tool to destroy a house. The "Nearly Destroyed" statement in BT history is worded rather ambiguously. It's entirely likely based on clan beliefs the statement referred to military assets, but strongly worded as the numbers that are available only refer to around 33% of military assets lost, and there is no information about casualties or the lack thereof.

When one considers that the clans had 21 years of civil war, likely a limited civil war considering that Nicholas managed to retain 260 of 406 warships (which is pretty close to 2/3 of that particular asset), which were probably used to fight with during the civil war, one can assume that the clans kept a lot of what they brought out during Operation Exodus in terms of civilians and assets.

On the other hand, the Inner Sphere saw 60+ years of complete total war before the Successor Lords decided to start following the Ares Conventions again, and then another 175 years of almost continuous war before the clans returned. Even after the Ares Conventions were reinstated, you can bet safe that any budget that most Successor Lords had for R&D went instead to funding more military assets in their standing armies. Only on Avalon in the Federated Suns was there any real research and development of weapon and medical advancements, and that only happened after Hanse Davion was crowned prince.

Toss in the Comstar group, that horded and kept secret all technological knowledge instead of spreading it amongst the known universe, but had little in the way of R&D to improve technology, and it's entirely feasible that the degradation of technology was widespread and quite regressed.

For examples, let's take this to real world application. The U.S. doesn't win wars by pouring numbers into the fight, it does so by it's military industry (which is still America's largest industry), logistics (U.S. has the largest fleet of ships in the world), and advancements in military technology. Limited war creates a demand for improving war tech, while total war will destroy it. If someone nuked San Diego, who knows what R&D we'd lose when that part of Boeing disappears.

Using another example, the Romans carved out an empire by creating a professional standing army and training soldiers to use pilums that they could throw to maim or destroy shields and short swords used for stabbing in concert with tactics and discipline. Small advances in technology often are the difference.

As for the ability to survive out in other areas, during the Star League era there was a lot of colonization occurring still, so the tools to turn a barely habitable planet into an industrial complex had to be capable of space travel. During the Exodus, the clans made pitstops on the way out and gathered a lot of skilled laborers, tools, and assets, some by force, and brought them along. That means they had the tools and personnel with the correct knowledge to operate them for colonizing planets.

View PostKay Wolf, on 02 December 2013 - 09:17 AM, said:

The Clans shouldn't exist and, until the Clans came about, neither did the ComGuards, at least not with 85 regiments worth of Star League era technology BattleMechs. As for the training, if you want to get picky, no one messes with ComStar, so spying on them would be fruitless. Technically, with the kind of technology they have, and the intelligence apparatus they've been known to possess for real-world decades, they could test everyone in simulators for years and come about with the nearly same effect as fighting in the field.

Not sure if that answers the question, and I didn't read anything between the OP and here, but that's what it is.


There has been mention in the novels that there has been several attempts to infiltrate Comstar with eyes and ears, but with no success. A direct reference to that was made by Quintus Allard that he had sent agents to attempt it. Plus, having the war stockpile of 85 regiments of mechs is not entirely unfeasible, considering that Comstar has had Terra (Earth) to mull over for centuries, where the seat of power during the Star League was, and where some of the last fights Cameron the Usurper put up. Who's to say that there wasn't a stockpile left there for Jerome Blake, along with what remained of the SLDF after the Exodus, in which the CO was placed under Jerome's command. Plus, all that money that Comstar makes from being the only name in interstellar communications probably helped increase that stockpile over the 2 centuries. During all that time, not once was any group allowed free rein to run around Terra looking for bunkers of pristine Star League era Battlemechs.

Edited by Guido, 02 December 2013 - 07:52 PM.


#253 Devillin

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 09:13 PM

View PostKay Wolf, on 02 December 2013 - 03:04 PM, said:


You do remember that Snord's Irregulars/Rhonda's Irregulars had also originated with the Clans, right?


Wrong. Cranston Snord originated from the Clans, and the original Irregulars were all Inner Sphere. Also add into that is that the Camelot Command mission took place 43 years after they left the Dragoons. Everybody in the Irregulars at that point were Inner Sphere, born and trained. So any knowledge they might have had of the Clans would have been what little was passed on by Cranston (who, like Jaime Wolf, didn't pass the knowledge on until the Clans arrived), and whatever they picked up over a year of constant fighting.

#254 CyclonerM

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 05:19 AM

View PostStrum Wealh, on 02 December 2013 - 06:33 PM, said:



Where the reasonableness/sensibility falls apart, though, is where this foundling civilization - ostensibly made up primarily of highly-educated and disciplined military personnel with the resolve to remove their combat expertise and war-making materials from the reach of humanity-at-large - decides to go neo-tribal, fracture into almost two-dozen smaller groups, and adopt the names and behaviors of fancifully-named animal totems... :(

View PostGuido, on 02 December 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:



When one considers that the clans had 21 years of civil war, likely a limited civil war considering that Nicholas managed to retain 260 of 406 warships (which is pretty close to 2/3 of that particular asset), which were probably used to fight with during the civil war, one can assume that the clans kept a lot of what they brought out during Operation Exodus in terms of civilians and assets.


They do not seem so much moral soldiers after all.. War is inside the human soul.
Posted Image

Posted Image

#255 Ridersofdoom

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 05:44 AM

All stories have a lot of similarities with what happened in the Second World War, and the Battle of tukayid with some events at the Battle of Stalingrad, right or wrong?

#256 Karl Streiger

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 05:58 AM

View PostRidersofdoom, on 03 December 2013 - 05:44 AM, said:

All stories have a lot of similarities with what happened in the Second World War, and the Battle of tukayid with some events at the Battle of Stalingrad, right or wrong?

Uhm... not really. Stalingrad was named as the battle that turned the tide.... but if a Battle of WWIIcould be compared with Tukayyid it must be the Battle of Kursk... so you had superior tech (but few - and used by dilettante prussian generals (like those lyran social generals)
- and on the other hand a force that had numbers - extra ordinary ground attack crafts and the courage of desperation (like zealot ComGuards)

Edited by Karl Streiger, 03 December 2013 - 05:58 AM.


#257 Guido

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 04:10 PM

View PostCyclonerM, on 03 December 2013 - 05:19 AM, said:


They do not seem so much moral soldiers after all.. War is inside the human soul.


Touche good sir.

I'll give you that the first year of that civil war was fought without consideration to moral standing, but no entire planets were nuked to lifelessness and it only lasted a year.

Less moral than a person in peacetime, but still more moral than the IS houses.

Also, food for thought, armed civilian population isn't civilian at that point, it's a militia. Even the US's democratic-liberalist ROE allows engagement of militia.

#258 Vhetra

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 05:01 PM

It wasn't that they were all amazing pilots from all over the Inner Sphere. Not as such.

They were all FRR who had been pushed back. They were hyped on mead and anger from losing their homelands. See FRR wouldn't have lost at all even with the tech disadvantage if FRR could actually get decent mechs and weren't completely assaulted by two clans in cowardly, surprise attacks.

Once they were on even terms the skill of the FRR pilots came into the light, and thus the filthy meat tube babies were beaten.

Edited by Vhetra, 03 December 2013 - 05:02 PM.


#259 pbiggz

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 05:41 PM

FRR had virtually nothing to do with Tukayyid. Comguard warriors are not FRR warriors...


IN FACT, the FRR was poorly armed and suffered from a pathological hate for mercenaries, meaning they refused to call for help, meaning the clan victories there were as much FRR failures as they were displays of superior tech stomping a poorly armed and tiny state.

Edited by pbiggz, 03 December 2013 - 05:52 PM.


#260 Vanguard319

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 06:28 PM

View PostKay Wolf, on 02 December 2013 - 09:17 AM, said:

This is actually as good a question as...

How could between 80 - 85% of the Star League Defense Forces boost out to worlds more than a year away from the furthest Periphery state, with no factories, a few engineers and scientists, no ability to extract minerals nor refine them once extracted, almost kill one-another in a mass civil war, which prompted the creation of the Clans and the 300 blood names, and then rise less than two-hundred years after that to be a complete civilization with manufacturing and scientific capabilities to far-exceed over a thousand years of development on around 2000 worlds, with a vast army, only one-fourth of which was required to be able to take and hold over 100 worlds within a few months, to be the greatest threat the Inner Sphere has ever seen?


In all fairness, not everyone in the Exodus would necessarily be a soldier. You would also have spouses and dependants. In addition, you would also have military engineers, as well as medics and surgeons, probably some R&D personnel. Finally, you may have individuals who were not SLDF personnel, but were aware of the Exodus, and were allowed to join because they had relevant skills for building a new settlement.

Also, the exodus fleet wandered for almost two years before they reached the pentagon worlds. That would be plenty of time to start learning new skills and trades, assuming the ships had a sufficient library





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