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Elo Based On Win/loss (Or Anything Based On Win/loss) Is Silly


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#161 Heffay

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Posted 14 November 2013 - 09:35 AM

View PostDoctor Proctor, on 14 November 2013 - 08:31 AM, said:

Take the match I just played on Forest Colony. The other team had a premade group of lights with capture accelerators. It was two ECM Spiders, an ECM Raven and a Jenner. They went via the caves and had our cap point down by 25% within a minute or two of the match starting. We sounded the alarm that a group of lights were on cap, and more were coming through the caves. We targeted enemies, told people to come back, etc...but that didn't stop half our team wandering over to the enemy's side of the map, which meant the half defending the base got massacred, followed by the cleanup of the other half of our team as they attempted to organize a cap (which would have failed if the 4 lights with cap accelerators started capping us again).


Anecdotes don't prove Elo or matchmaking is screwed up. A single game is a data point. And for the 8 people who dropped with the 4 lights, a sign that matchmaking *and* Elo is just fine. :ph34r:

#162 Ryan Steel

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Posted 14 November 2013 - 10:47 AM

View PostSarsaparilla Kid, on 10 November 2013 - 03:22 PM, said:


Witnessed something similar in a Twitch stream, and apparently there's a pilot out there that is managing to end up in high-Elo matches always piloting an Atlas, yet does very little damage and usually dies first. I obviously can't mention his name, but because of his moniker, I almost wonder if PGI is experimenting with an AI bot as a match filler. If that's not the case, MM is really borked to be consistently putting him in such high-end matches as a solo player.

I felt bad for the D-DC on the losing side here (not related to the above Atlas)...he couldn't carry hard enough despite his score, possibly due to the 6 v 3 assault ratio, which lowered his Elo to some degree as a result:

Posted Image


Villz had told me about this pilot a while back, telling me he was doing absolutely horribly (scoring 46 damage a match) and being paired up with him match after match. When we dropped together I realized he was not exaggerating. He was indeed on our team for at least the next 5-7 matches dying FIRST on our team with less than 60 damage EVERY SINGLE GAME. There were also instances where we would be facing SJR a few matches in a row and this pilot was being placed randomly on either our team or theirs. Of course I can't mention his name here but I'll give you a hint that his name contains a type of bird that we eat during lots of holiday meals.

What remains certain about this player is that he has a high Elo and he doesn't respond in team chat. Villz and I were partly joking/partly serious that this player is a Dev trolling us. After seeing a few matches that he played with exactly 46 damage, and then Savage Hero messaging me in chat that he witnessed him in one of HIS matches with exactly 46 damage, I suspect that he could be an AI as you suggest and that he's programmed to alpha an X number of times. Depending on the Atlas that he's using it could be 46 damage or some other value, but what remains certain is that this player's contribution to the match is minimal to zilch.

Edited by Ryan Steel, 14 November 2013 - 10:51 AM.


#163 Doctor Proctor

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Posted 14 November 2013 - 10:56 AM

View PostHeffay, on 14 November 2013 - 09:35 AM, said:


Anecdotes don't prove Elo or matchmaking is screwed up. A single game is a data point. And for the 8 people who dropped with the 4 lights, a sign that matchmaking *and* Elo is just fine. :wub:


Yes and no. Anecdotes are useful in certain situations, but not in others. In this case, the anecdote shows that even when matching players of similar skill level, a premade can create a large unbalancing factor if the other team is nothing but solo PUGs. The anecdote can't tell us though, for example, how frequently this occurs...just that it exists.

If it exists in any significant amount though, which it seems to since so many people have essentially the same anecdote, then it can show that perhaps ELO and MM together are not building matches correctly. Which was the entire point of my post that you quoted... I perhaps can't exactly say what we should fix and tweak and in what ways, but it's enough to say that it's broken in it's current implementation.

#164 Heffay

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Posted 14 November 2013 - 11:29 AM

View PostRyan Steel, on 14 November 2013 - 10:47 AM, said:


Villz had told me about this pilot a while back, telling me he was doing absolutely horribly (scoring 46 damage a match) and being paired up with him match after match. When we dropped together I realized he was not exaggerating. He was indeed on our team for at least the next 5-7 matches dying FIRST on our team with less than 60 damage EVERY SINGLE GAME. There were also instances where we would be facing SJR a few matches in a row and this pilot was being placed randomly on either our team or theirs. Of course I can't mention his name here but I'll give you a hint that his name contains a type of bird that we eat during lots of holiday meals.

What remains certain about this player is that he has a high Elo and he doesn't respond in team chat. Villz and I were partly joking/partly serious that this player is a Dev trolling us. After seeing a few matches that he played with exactly 46 damage, and then Savage Hero messaging me in chat that he witnessed him in one of HIS matches with exactly 46 damage, I suspect that he could be an AI as you suggest and that he's programmed to alpha an X number of times. Depending on the Atlas that he's using it could be 46 damage or some other value, but what remains certain is that this player's contribution to the match is minimal to zilch.


Most likely a high Elo player letting his kid play his account.

#165 WVAnonymous

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Posted 14 November 2013 - 04:07 PM

View PostSarsaparilla Kid, on 10 November 2013 - 03:22 PM, said:


Witnessed something similar in a Twitch stream, and apparently there's a pilot out there that is managing to end up in high-Elo matches always piloting an Atlas, yet does very little damage and usually dies first. I obviously can't mention his name, but because of his moniker, I almost wonder if PGI is experimenting with an AI bot as a match filler. If that's not the case, MM is really borked to be consistently putting him in such high-end matches as a solo player.

I felt bad for the D-DC on the losing side here (not related to the above Atlas)...he couldn't carry hard enough despite his score, possibly due to the 6 v 3 assault ratio, which lowered his Elo to some degree as a result:

Posted Image


Not the case. My 8-year old daughter has her own account. When the 24 match challenge came up, like any good Daddy, I stayed up past her bedtime so she could get her medallion. My 8-year old daughter was dropping regularly with PEEFSmash and Bitchin' Betty.

You were seeing a new player "initialization ELO" having a wonderful new player experience.

#166 WVAnonymous

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Posted 14 November 2013 - 04:20 PM

View PostRyan Steel, on 14 November 2013 - 10:47 AM, said:


What remains certain about this player is that he has a high Elo and he doesn't respond in team chat.



Also, my daughter is under orders not to chat online.

#167 Heffay

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Posted 14 November 2013 - 04:30 PM

View PostWVAnonymous, on 14 November 2013 - 04:07 PM, said:

My 8-year old daughter was dropping regularly with PEEFSmash


That would be a horrible experience, but that isn't due to Elo at all. :wub:

#168 Zolaz

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Posted 16 November 2013 - 02:11 AM

You see ... the problem is that PGI is bad at coding and implementation. Matchmaking on win/loss is just another example of that.





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