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Elo Ratings And Granularity


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#1 Homeless Bill

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:12 PM

The Problem

So, I've come to a point where my assault Elo makes the majority of assault 'mechs I can play unfun. Almost without fail (and especially as it gets later), I'm paired with super angry players. SJR and Lords are all over the place, and a single mistake usually means death.

That's not the problem; in fact, whenever I'm in my 733C or 732, they're the only people I want to play against. I love trying to out-poptart the best snipers. Killing Jager, Siri, Villz, or Mav gives me a sense of satisfaction that can't be matched by the howls of 1000 dead scrubs.

The problem is when I trot out the Pretty Baby. Or any other Awesome. Or a brawler. Life instantly becomes ****** as I cower behind a rock, waiting for my chance to do some good. Two minutes later, six of my guys got smoked, and it's over.

I cannot, and will never be able to, affect matches to the same degree in my Pretty Baby as my 733C. Even my 733P running a cheese-free loadout isn't even in the same ballpark in terms of effectiveness.

This basically just makes me not play a lot of my 'mechs anymore (particularly Awesomes =[). Not only is it unfun to lose with near certainty, but I also don't want to crash my Elo down to where I don't get to play the fun people anymore.

The Solution

While I understand that splitting Elo ratings based on weight class is better than nothing, it's also not nearly as good or granular as it needs to be. Having said that, having a different Elo for each chassis or variant without any special work would be a matchmaking disaster since most people don't have a statistically significant number of matches (making it much more randomized than now). Here's my proposal for how to fix that:
  • Each variant has its own Elo rating. If a variant does not have a significant number of matches (probably around 50), it uses its base chassis' aggregate Elo rating.
  • Each chassis has an aggregate rating that is calculated by averaging all its variants' Elo ratings. If a chassis does not have a significant number of matches, it uses its weight class' aggregate rating.
  • Each weight class has an aggregate rating that is calculated by averaging all appropriate aggregate chassis Elo ratings.
  • Unplayed variants do not receive a rating until their first match, at which point they are assigned their parent tier's aggregate rating as a starting point.
  • Just like now, each weight class is assigned a default value for newbies (and thus the very first variant they play gets that default rating).
Because this is all pretty abstract, I'll try to paint a picture of how this would work. Some of this will probably be confusing, so if there's anything I can clarify, please let me know:
  • Poemless Bill signs up for an account and buys his first 'mech: an Awesome 8Q. I don't remember what new player Elo is currently, so I'll just use 1200 as the example.
  • Poemless Bill has a tough time adjusting to the game and scrapes to the end of the Basic efficiencies (25 matches) with an 1100 Elo for his AWS-8Q. Though he doesn't have 50 matches yet, his overall assault Elo rating is also at 1100 because that's the only rating there is to average - no other 'mechs have been played.
  • Bill buys another Awesome: the 9M. It receives 1100 as a starting Elo (the assault aggregate Elo). He ******* loves this 'mech, so he does better and pulls his Elo up to 1500 in his first 25 matches with that variant. Keep in mind that the matchmaker still isn't trying to match the 9M at its own rating - because there aren't statistically significant number of matches for that variant or chassis, it's using the assault aggregate Elo (which rose from 1100 to around 1300 through the course of playing the 9M).
  • Now that 50 matches have been played, the Awesome chassis has enough matches to have its own rating. Regardless of how much catastrophic failure ensues in any other assault 'mechs, the Awesome's Elo rating will not be affected.
  • Bill has been poptarted one too many times, and buys a 733C in a fit of rage. It gets assigned the assault aggregate Elo (1300), and then he proceeds to cheese his way through the ranks, ending up with a 2300 Elo rating at the end of 50 matches.
  • Though the matchmaker has been using the assault aggregate Elo for matches (rising from 1300 to 1800 as the 733C is played), the minute 50 matches has been reached for the 733C, its own rating is used. Because the matchmaker is now putting him in the 2300 range, he has a much harder time climbing through the ranks and can only get to 2400 after another 50 matches. Much like how the Awesome is locked-in an unaffected by all this, the 733C's rating will never be affected by any other chassis or variant after those first 50 matches.
  • Bill buys his final Awesome: the Pretty Baby. It is assigned the Awesome aggregate Elo (1300) since the chassis has enough matches to override the assault aggregate Elo. He regrets his purchase immediately and goes on an 18-hour drinking binge that results in a 500 Pretty Baby Elo after 150 matches. After the first 50 matches, the matchmaker stops using the Awesome aggregate Elo and prefers the Pretty Baby's specific Elo (though it will still use the Awesome aggregate Elo for the 8Q and 9M until they, too, have 50 matches).
  • His Awesome aggregate Elo is now around 900, and any future awesomes will be assigned that as default and use the aggregate for matchmaking until they hit 50 matches.
  • Any other Highlanders that are purchased will be assigned the Highlander aggregate Elo (currently 2400, since there are over 50 matches in the chassis and 733C is the only one owned). Let's say the 733P is next and it was ugly. Its first 100 matches bring the Highlander aggregate Elo down to 1700, which will then be bestowed on any future Highlanders. The 733P's inglorious slide has no effect on the 733C's rating.
  • Poemless Bill buys a Stalker 3F. Because no matches have been played in any Stalker, it is assigned the assault aggregate Elo (1300 based on Highlander's 1700 with 200 matches and Awesome's 900 with 200 matches).
It's a simple tree/hierarchy that, though it would take some effort to code, would really make the game a hell of a lot more balanced for the dedicated players. Sure, it's never going to be perfect (you could own four D-DCs, each with a different loadout), but it's a hell of a lot better than what we have now.

I'd greatly appreciate critical feedback. I intend to do a serious write-up later on, and I'd like to get all of the arguments and answers out on the table ahead of time.

TL;DR: I don't want to roll scrubs in my 733C, but I also don't want to die repeatedly to Siri in my 9M. Adding granular capability to the Elo rating system would solve this problem.

#2 Deathlike

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:16 PM

I suggested this kinda of type (every variant having its own elo) a long time ago (in the very elo related threads), but let's just say PGI hasn't catered to the vocal minority for a while now.

I agree fundamentally what you're suggesting, but this is PGI we're talking about.

Edited by Deathlike, 11 December 2013 - 03:17 PM.


#3 Homeless Bill

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:32 PM

View PostDeathlike, on 11 December 2013 - 03:16 PM, said:

I suggested this kinda of type (every variant having its own elo) a long time ago (in the very elo related threads), but let's just say PGI hasn't catered to the vocal minority for a while now.

I agree fundamentally what you're suggesting, but this is PGI we're talking about.

I'm well aware they don't give a **** and won't dedicate any time to making life better for a small, dedicated segment of the playerbase. Never stopped me before, did it?

#4 John MatriX82

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:33 PM

Dear(s) welcome to the high level helo hell.

I share Homeless' thoughts, there are mechs that fall within the same ELO of the best ones but aren't totally suited up to even bother bringing them in, against certain foes. That's why it's rare I even try to play my 9M rather than my DS or Highlanders.

However I fear that specific variant ELO won't be achievable, but I hope that at least chassis is doable and would allow to enjoy a better game experience especially when leveling up the variants of a new chassis.
Since the chassis is "fresh" your ELO shouldn't be the one you have within the same class.

Or make that the overall ELO of that chassis is the weighted average of the used variants.

The hell I've been through to level the Shawks or the BJs is one of the several things of this game that are unbearable. Think about getting against those tough guys with a not even basic BJ in teams that have 200+ tons difference between each other. It's not so "fair". It's challenging but at least when teams are even in tonnage, not when the matchmaker pairs you up in a mixed light/med/heavy 12 man against like 8 assaults 2 mediums and two heavies..

Edited by John MatriX82, 11 December 2013 - 03:42 PM.


#5 Deathlike

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:36 PM

View PostHomeless Bill, on 11 December 2013 - 03:12 PM, said:

I'd greatly appreciate critical feedback. I intend to do a serious write-up later on, and I'd like to get all of the arguments and answers out on the table ahead of time.


You don't really need that much feedback (it's mostly foolproof, with the exception mentioned). You've hashed out the details of how it would be done (at least in my mind, it would be similar to that type of system based on existing info, but it would be no better or different from yours)

The thing about this ELO related change is that it would provide better telemetry (that word PGI uses, but doesn't actually understand) as it makes it easier to understand the UPness or OPness of a mech and/or its build. Now, obviously it doesn't mean that players will be immediately more powerful if they pick the mech that the highest of ELOs use, but it should give PGI some indication of the "meta" that people keep spouting and the success they are having it. A mech and its variants can still be successful, but it needs to be collected in an ELO-like vacuum to understand it better.

For those of you wanting a discussion on BV (or other arbitrary systems), you can better base balancing decisions between mechs, weapons, loadouts... but it's not perfect. It won't make people who suck with JJs better, or those holding onto dear life the battered state of SRMs... it can give the devs some tangible and relative telemetry to at least look at and improve weapon balance.

That assumes of course that Paul is going to do something with it. Oh well. At least, it is a better way to expanding on the data gathered.

Edited by Deathlike, 11 December 2013 - 03:37 PM.


#6 WVAnonymous

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:38 PM

Why would any variant be different from any other variant? :huh:

Three Orions bought on the same day and their win/loss ratios:

PROTECTOR 2.71
ORION ON1-M 1.42
ORION ON1-V 1.00

Homeless Bill, you have my unfettered support.

#7 FupDup

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:40 PM

I will never forget the soul-crushingly painful experience of grinding Locusts at my Raven's Elo level.

#8 Deathlike

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:41 PM

View PostJohn MatriX82, on 11 December 2013 - 03:33 PM, said:

The hell I've been through to level the Shawks or the BJs is one of the several things of this game that are unbearable. Think about getting against those tough guys with a not even basic BJ in teams that have 200+ tons difference between each other. It's not so "fair". It's challenging but at least when teams are even in tonnage, not when the matchmaker pairs you up in a mixed light/med/heavy 12 man against like 8 assaults 2 mediums and two heavies..


New mechs or "fun mechs" are literally ELO induced hardmode. You literally have to build a meta compliant build to keep up and take multiple blows to your ELO before you are finally "readjusted". This is not a meaningful definition of fun by any stretch, although I enjoy the challenge... but that's just not healthy for the game.

#9 Duncan Aravain

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:45 PM

You make a sound,reasoned, and completely needed solution to a problem. What makes you think PGI actually cares?

#10 Roadbeer

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:49 PM

View PostDeathlike, on 11 December 2013 - 03:41 PM, said:


New mechs or "fun mechs" are literally ELO induced hardmode. You literally have to build a meta compliant build to keep up and take multiple blows to your ELO before you are finally "readjusted". This is not a meaningful definition of fun by any stretch, although I enjoy the challenge... but that's just not healthy for the game.


True this, working with the Tbolts under my Catapult Elo has been moral crushing outside a premade.

This thread gets...


THE ROADBEER STAMP OF APPROVAL



#11 Arcturious

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 03:59 PM

It would also be better if the match maker was more granular in assigning the teams based not just on variant but load out.

In your example of wanting to take a brawler, if the enemy also had a brawler to match against you it wouldn't be as bad.

Last night had a game where for some reason, all the brawlers got assigned to my team, all the snipers to the other in Canyons.

We had a few 'fun' build assaults like a 9M with all MPL or ML's. Our heavies were all SRM with at most a LL or two here and there.

The enemy team was entirely gauss phracts, AC Jagers, PPC highlanders etc. You can guess how it worked out lol

If the teams had been better split, it might have been a great match. However random chance completely stacked the deck in one direction. We need both systems to have increased granularity for maximum effect.

Edited by Arcturious, 11 December 2013 - 04:03 PM.


#12 Sandpit

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:09 PM

I like the idea of each variant having its own ELO

#13 anonymous161

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:16 PM

Inded would be awesome!

#14 St4LkeRxF

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:36 PM

View PostArcturious, on 11 December 2013 - 03:59 PM, said:

It would also be better if the match maker was more granular in assigning the teams based not just on variant but load out.

In your example of wanting to take a brawler, if the enemy also had a brawler to match against you it wouldn't be as bad.

Last night had a game where for some reason, all the brawlers got assigned to my team, all the snipers to the other in Canyons.

We had a few 'fun' build assaults like a 9M with all MPL or ML's. Our heavies were all SRM with at most a LL or two here and there.

The enemy team was entirely gauss phracts, AC Jagers, PPC highlanders etc. You can guess how it worked out lol

If the teams had been better split, it might have been a great match. However random chance completely stacked the deck in one direction. We need both systems to have increased granularity for maximum effect.



What you describe there is what i see day after day and it seem like ELO want you to lose to make that W/L work out in the end, so it will give you team that doesn't have much chance against other team.

Today got few games like that and for some weird reason we won every time.

#15 slide

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:45 PM

Likewise, I have suggested this elsewhere.

If ELO must stay then this is required AT LEAST on a per chassis basis (variants would be better). It is basically the same problem we had back when there was weight class matching in closed/open beta. There was no way that an Awesome was as effective as an Atlas, which is why few people took them.

PGI listen to this man he knows of what he speaks. Better yet give him a job!

#16 Corvus Antaka

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:47 PM

So. Jumsniping is OP, but rather than fix that so every mech is viable lets introduce a mech by mech battlevalue so the guys playing jumpsniper wars can keep doing so within MWO?

Easier just to fix the game balance issues certain mechs are causing.

#17 Sandpit

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:52 PM

View PostColonel Pada Vinson, on 11 December 2013 - 04:47 PM, said:

So. Jumsniping is OP, but rather than fix that so every mech is viable lets introduce a mech by mech battlevalue so the guys playing jumpsniper wars can keep doing so within MWO?

Easier just to fix the game balance issues certain mechs are causing.

since when in poptarting op?

#18 WarZ

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:54 PM

View PostHomeless Bill, on 11 December 2013 - 03:12 PM, said:

The Problem

So, I've come to a point where my assault Elo makes the majority of assault 'mechs I can play unfun. Almost without fail (and especially as it gets later), I'm paired with super angry players. SJR and Lords are all over the place, and a single mistake usually means death.

That's not the problem; in fact, whenever I'm in my 733C or 732, they're the only people I want to play against. I love trying to out-poptart the best snipers. Killing Jager, Siri, Villz, or Mav gives me a sense of satisfaction that can't be matched by the howls of 1000 dead scrubs.

The problem is when I trot out the Pretty Baby. Or any other Awesome. Or a brawler. Life instantly becomes ****** as I cower behind a rock, waiting for my chance to do some good. Two minutes later, six of my guys got smoked, and it's over.

I cannot, and will never be able to, affect matches to the same degree in my Pretty Baby as my 733C. Even my 733P running a cheese-free loadout isn't even in the same ballpark in terms of effectiveness.

This basically just makes me not play a lot of my 'mechs anymore (particularly Awesomes =[). Not only is it unfun to lose with near certainty, but I also don't want to crash my Elo down to where I don't get to play the fun people anymore.


This is my experience as well. I have a lot of fun coming up with alternative builds. However elo is constantly matching me with the absolute top tier players anytime I try and play. So unless I'm bringing my absolute best builds I end up being at a severe disadvantage. So I have to essentially ignore all but the best mechs and builds when I want to play mainly because they match me against high elo, all cheese, pop tarting teams. Experiments in speed vs armor vs different weapons are dicey at best.

Its gotten to the point that I play very little now waiting for changes to matchmaker (especially tonnage and class matching, and hopefully elo changes). I want to play a wider variety of my mechs. However I'm currently penalized if I do. Its a very discouraging situation.

In my defense, even when playing against top tier teams, I'm still usually top dog for kills and damage for my team (if not the whole match). I can carry hard when needed. But even carrying uber hard, you can only overcome so much. And when the deck is stacked so high against you from the beginning its very difficult to change the forgone conclusion.

#19 Corvus Antaka

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:56 PM

View PostSandpit, on 11 December 2013 - 04:52 PM, said:

since when in poptarting op?


Since the game devolved into what we said it would with the current design - everyone hiding behind ridges & pop-tarting is the #1 way to help you win, and for good reason.

pop-tarting is OP when it becomes the defacto standard way to play the game.

As a spider pilot with 650+ drops in a pop-tarting spider, I know pop-tarting is OP. I abuse it daily ;)

It's just so much slower and more boring when it's all highlanders.

#20 WarZ

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Posted 11 December 2013 - 04:58 PM

View PostSandpit, on 11 December 2013 - 04:52 PM, said:

since when in poptarting op?


Since it gives you HUGE reward vs. relatively tiny risk. Dropping your full pinpoint alpha, and having ALMOST no chance to be hit back is HUGE.

If they had to step out of cover and expose themselves for the shot then backpedal their slow heavy and assault mechs back to cover creating counter fire exposure time ... vs instantly dropping behind full cover it would be different.





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