Karl Berg, on 09 May 2014 - 03:11 PM, said:
I have some recent numbers, this is for a single day of telemetry:
Light: 16%
Medium: 21%
Heavy: 35%
Assault: 28%
Yay! Real numbers thanks very much!
Now ... here are the expected queue times with 3/3/3/3 assuming this distribution is representative.
nLaunch is the number of folks launching in an hour (and is actually completely irrelevant to queue times)
0.16 * nLaunch light
0.21 * nLaunch medium
0.35 * nLaunch heavy
0.28 * nLaunch assault
0.16 * nLaunch/3 matches are formed in one hour since the light mechs are the limiting factor
0.16 * nLaunch mechs in each class will get a match in the time frame - the rest are queued
After one hour there are:
0.21 * nLaunch - 0.16 nLaunch = 0.05 * nLaunch mediums in queue
0.35 * nLaunch - 0.16 nLaunch = 0.19 * nLaunch heaavies in queue
0.28 * nLaunch - 0.16 nLaunch = 0.12 * nLaunch assaults in queue
Every hour there are 0.16 nLaunch mechs of each class which get a match ... everyone else is queued ... so after one hour of uptime the queue times for the last mech entering the queue are:
medium = 0.05 * nLaunch / 0.16 * nLaunch = 0.05/0.16 hr = 18.75 minutes
heavy = 0.19 * nLaunch / 0.16 * nLaunch = 0.19/0.16 hr = 71.25 minutes
assault = 0.12 * nLaunch / 0.16 nLaunch = 0.12/0.16 hr = 45 minutes
Please note that the queue times are COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT of the number of players launching in an hour - it is ONLY dependent on the mech class distribution.
In addition, these are queue times after one hour ... the queue times increase linearly so they will be twice as long after 2 hours and so on.
ANY imbalance in mech distribution generates queues quickly, PERIOD. I've said this in at least half a dozen forum posts.
e.g. a 24/25/26/25% distribution queue times after one hour:
0.01/0.24 = 2.5 minutes for assault and medium
0.02/0.24 = 5 minutes for heavy
In three hours they will be 7.5 minutes and 15 minutes
Even 2.5 minutes is too long in my opinion ... however, I don't think we need worry since I don't think we would EVER see a mech distribution this evenly matched ... to start with, it would require 50% more players to drop in light mechs than do currently ... and I am not sure that there are enough folks who even like light mechs to make up that difference.
So .. I think that the 3/3/3/3 paradigm is broken as currently designed and will NOT work with a real distribution of players. Expecting players to switch mechs to get a match faster will just mean folks will quit rather than play a mech they don't like.
Fundamentally, I think the matchmaker MUST respond to the mech distribution in the input queues or the design is broken.
My suggested fix for this was the following:
Monitor queue times. Set a maximum acceptable queue time (I choose 2 minutes).
When all queue times are 2 minutes or less - generate 3/3/3/3 match distributions
IF a queue goes over 2 minutes then adjust the distribution to increase the number of mechs from queues over 1 minute proportional to the number of mechs queued ... so that the long queues reduce over time ... the rate limiting step is still the class of mech with the least number in the queue. This may mean generating 1/2/5/4 or some other distribution for a while to reduce queues - it has to be adaptable - BUT the matches will all be evenly matched with the same classes and ideally tonnage on each team. Folks don't really care about 3/3/3/3 - they do care about balanced matches.
When all queues are 1 minute or less go back to generating 3/3/3/3 until a queue hits 2 minutes - rinse and repeat.
This would mean:
1) All matches are balanced for weight but there will be some variety in matches.
2) At least some fraction of matches will be 3/3/3/3 ... the closer to equal the queues are the more 3/3/3/3 matches there will be
3) The maximum wait time is 2 minutes
4) The game will not force people to play mechs they do not want to play in order to get a match in less than an hour ... this is crucial for player retention ... if I have to wait even 10 minutes for a match that only lasts 10 minutes ... I won't be playing MWO at all ... and there are probably a lot of folks in this boat.
Feel free to pass this one along Karl if it is worthwhile.
Edited by Mawai, 13 May 2014 - 06:38 AM.