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Why Elo Doesn't Work Here


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#301 RussianWolf

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:11 AM

View PostRichAC, on 24 January 2014 - 10:06 AM, said:



ok so your a little below avg. Could be alot of factors. Alot of people get their ratio higher, by playing their best mech over and over again.

A little rule i have for myself. Is only change mechs if I die without a kill. Otherwise i see how long i can keep the streak going. and I do have my goto mechs, like my ctf or atlas or shadowhawk if I feel i'm getting stomped too much.

I have over 70 mechs and never play a mech that doesn't offer me the 2x XP bonus (at least not until I get them all mastered, which may be soon). So 2-3 games per mech is a max before I swap, usually just once and done for the night. Some of my best, don't get played very often because they are too easy. And I don't run cheese builds.

I'm one of the first to admit I have a bit of an aggressive play style that gets me killed more often than not. :ph34r:

Both those Win/Lose and Kill/Death rates have been increasing steadily. Was at less than .5 a year ago on both.

Edited by RussianWolf, 24 January 2014 - 10:15 AM.


#302 Joseph Mallan

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:13 AM

Yeah I have 39 hours of drops listed for my 2 Atlases and 20ish hour combined in my other 23 Mechs! :ph34r:

#303 Roadkill

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:15 AM

View PostRichAC, on 24 January 2014 - 09:52 AM, said:

The problem many have with this is they feel match score doesn't really reflect a players worth. Well thats been the age old debate over this game. They give more cbills for dmg done more then everything else combined, and no real reward at all for winning. But apparenlty thats how the majority players like it.

I think the c-bill rewards have ended up where they are in order to help prevent farming. If they reward a win or loss with lots of c-bills, we'll back to the days when people would join games and quit immediately to earn c-bills as fast as possible. Or they'll just rush straight into the enemy lines to die as fast as possible so that they can quit. It used to happen all the time, which is why wins and losses are only worth 25k now.

Damage doesn't show skill so much as it shows participation. The way the thinking goes, if you participated in the match then you deserve to earn c-bills. (Anti-farming.) So they tilted the c-bill rewards in favor of damage so that the people who stick around and play would make more than the people who didn't do anything.

I'm not sure why match score seems to rely so heavily on damage done. Since match score isn't recorded anywhere (that we know of), it seems like there's really no reason for it to favor damage. I'd like to see it favor the various role warfare bonuses instead.

#304 RussianWolf

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:21 AM

View PostRoadkill, on 24 January 2014 - 10:09 AM, said:

15 pages into this thread and you still don't understand?

It's been explained over and over backed up by enough statistics to make my head hurt. And I was a Math major. In statistics. Go back and re-read one of those explanations.

Did you read anything beyond that first line? I suggest you do so to get my point.

#305 RichAC

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:25 AM

View PostRoadkill, on 24 January 2014 - 10:09 AM, said:

15 pages into this thread and you still don't understand?

It's been explained over and over backed up by enough statistics to make my head hurt. And I was a Math major. In statistics. Go back and re-read one of those explanations.



But roadkill the only math that matters is the scoreboard at the end of a match! haha

According to your math, the guy could be last place on the server every match, but still get a higher ELO, because he happened to be on the winning team everytime.

Which is just luck. Or in his case, WINNING would be considered bad luck...hahah

Youve self professed how your good at "gaming" they system. Don't you see this is just more reasons for people not to care about trying to win a match? I'm ready to revive my thread about how MWO is the only game where winning is a bad thing in every aspect.

People are going to feeling so down they are going to quit the game. They were no help to their team that won, they can't get a decent score, and it might even get worse for them because their team still won.

You don't need to be a math major or rocket scientist to understand basic sportsmanship. In fact those are the worst guys to be advising on this.

And ELO system is only good for private teams not random pugs. People are not playing to win in a game with no incentives to do so. Especially since its:

1. a random team game.

2. a game based on match scores and cbills.

Edited by RichAC, 24 January 2014 - 10:37 AM.


#306 Roadkill

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:28 AM

Lifetime I'm currently sitting at 2,992 / 1,247 or 70.58%.

But that's inflated by a ton of matches played before the matchmaker started using Elo to try to create balanced matches. Since then I'm at 839 / 743 or 53.03%. To get those latter numbers you have to add up your Map Stats page. Game Mode Stats page doesn't work because they didn't track the first month(ish) of Skirmish stats.

So if the goal of the matchmaker is to drive your win/loss ratio to 50/50, it seems to be working pretty well for me.

View PostRussianWolf, on 24 January 2014 - 10:21 AM, said:

Did you read anything beyond that first line? I suggest you do so to get my point.

Re-read it. Still don't see your point. Everything you talk about has been explained earlier in this thread.

#307 RussianWolf

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:33 AM

Adding up the map stats I get 2092/1990

As I said, I've been winning more and more.

#308 Roadkill

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:38 AM

View PostRichAC, on 24 January 2014 - 10:25 AM, said:

But roadkill the only math that matters is the scoreboard at the end of a match! haha

According to your math, the guy could be last place on the server every match, but still get a higher ELO, because he happened to be on the winning team.

Which is just luck. Or in his case, WINNING would be considered bad luck...hahah So then chances are hes going to get smashed even harder then he already is in another match, and be even more frustrated because his ELO got higher.

Youve self professed how your good at "gaming" they system. Don't you see this is just more reasons for people not to care about trying to win a match? If the guy is already the lowest scorer on the server even though his team won, why would he try for a harder challenge? To score even lower?

You don't need to be a math major to understand this.

It's also possible for you to flip a coin 10 times and get heads every time. Doesn't mean it happens very often. :huh:

No one has claimed that Elo is perfect. Just that it works, because it does. Even in this environment. It may fluctuate more in this environment, and it may take more matches to stabilize, but it still works.

The simplicity of Elo means that there's no real way to game it. You can... sort of... by deliberately throwing a couple of matches to lower your rating, but that just means that you'll then win a couple of matches in a row and bring your rating right back up. Sandbagging doesn't accomplish anything in the current environment, so while it's technically possible to "game" the system, it's also pointless.

However, I do game PGI's system for my own personal stats. One of my personal goals is to have a positive (meaning 1.0 or greater) win/loss ratio on all of my Mechs. And I have 48 of them, so it's a challenge. So how do I game the system?

Easy, I watch the pattern of wins and losses. When I expect that I'm going to lose my next match because of the pattern, I use a Mech that has a 1+ win/loss ratio. It can "absorb" a loss and still remain positive. But when I expect that I'm going to win my next match, I use a Mech that has a win/loss ratio less than 1. A win will bring it closer to 50/50.

Does it matter to anyone else? No, not really. But I'm "gaming" the system to accomplish a goal.

View PostRussianWolf, on 24 January 2014 - 10:33 AM, said:

Adding up the map stats I get 2092/1990

As I said, I've been winning more and more.

That's a lot of matches since they started recording stats. :ph34r:

Also a good ratio - 51.25%.

#309 MustrumRidcully

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:38 AM

View PostRichAC, on 24 January 2014 - 10:25 AM, said:



But roadkill the only math that matters is the scoreboard at the end of a match! haha

According to your math, the guy could be last place on the server every match, but still get a higher ELO, because he happened to be on the winning team everytime.


Outliers like that are extremely unlikely. If it happens to someone, then maybe he might eventually have a bad time at some point. Such a series will eventually stop, and then the players Elo would be overinflated - and shrink again in the subsequent matches. Maybe this particularly player will have a bad time, but the majority of players won't notice.
Such a guy would have the importance to the discussion whether Elo or match-making works as some guy that reports that Mechwarrior Online caused his computer to overheat (but no one else ever reporting this issue), shut down, causing him to be angry, leading to his wife believing he doesn't care, her consequently committing suicide, and he suffering a nervous breakdown and landing into psychiatry and returning 2 years and then posting on the forum that MW:O ruined his life. It would be a sad story, but... don't expect a bugfix.

Edited by MustrumRidcully, 24 January 2014 - 10:40 AM.


#310 RichAC

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:40 AM

View PostRoadkill, on 24 January 2014 - 10:15 AM, said:

I think the c-bill rewards have ended up where they are in order to help prevent farming. If they reward a win or loss with lots of c-bills, we'll back to the days when people would join games and quit immediately to earn c-bills as fast as possible. Or they'll just rush straight into the enemy lines to die as fast as possible so that they can quit. It used to happen all the time, which is why wins and losses are only worth 25k now.

Damage doesn't show skill so much as it shows participation. The way the thinking goes, if you participated in the match then you deserve to earn c-bills. (Anti-farming.) So they tilted the c-bill rewards in favor of damage so that the people who stick around and play would make more than the people who didn't do anything.

I'm not sure why match score seems to rely so heavily on damage done. Since match score isn't recorded anywhere (that we know of), it seems like there's really no reason for it to favor damage. I'd like to see it favor the various role warfare bonuses instead.



That makes absolutely no sense. THe cbills ended up the way the did, because of so many people shedding tears over "capwarriors". Well guess what. we have skirmish now for people who want damage and kills to affect the outcome of a game only...so cbill earnings can be adjusted more fairly again. And people who prefer the other game modes and for weight classes and other aspects that help a team win can get rewarded as well.

people were afraid of cap warriors base rushing in assault. Well now people can base rush in assault and WIN a match and have no issues doing so because they will be rewarded accordingly if this is addressed. And when they get tired of base rushing they can play skirmish for a change of pace.

There should be no issues now.


And I know your a genius and all. But most people judge skill by damage and kills. Basically good aim and postitioning/tactics.

But that shouldn't outweigh matchscores of people in game modes like conquest who have good win/loss ratios, because they ensure their team gets a cap victory. And it should be adjusted accordingly.

View PostRussianWolf, on 24 January 2014 - 10:33 AM, said:

Adding up the map stats I get 2092/1990

As I said, I've been winning more and more.



Don't worry Russian wolf it all evens out over time. You just need faith...Roadkill has done the math....
lmao.

Edited by RichAC, 24 January 2014 - 10:45 AM.


#311 RussianWolf

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:43 AM

Internal Combustion Engines work as a propulsion system. We'll through one on a Submarine for propulsion and we won't have any problems...........

#312 Roadkill

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:45 AM

View PostRichAC, on 24 January 2014 - 10:40 AM, said:

That makes absolutely no sense. THe cbills ended up the way the did, because of so many people shedding tears over "capwarriors"

Crying over "capwarriors" may have been part of it, too, but I distinctly remember c-bill earnings being altered specifically to discourage farming.

View PostRussianWolf, on 24 January 2014 - 10:43 AM, said:

Internal Combustion Engines work as a propulsion system. We'll through one on a Submarine for propulsion and we won't have any problems...........

You mean like all those old diesel submarines?

#313 RussianWolf

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:47 AM

View PostRoadkill, on 24 January 2014 - 10:45 AM, said:

Crying over "capwarriors" may have been part of it, too, but I distinctly remember c-bill earnings being altered specifically to discourage farming.


You mean like all those old diesel submarines?

I was hoping you'd say that.

Diesel Subs use electric motors for propulsion. The Diesel is used only on the surface to recharge the batteries used to power the electric motors.

#314 RichAC

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:48 AM

View PostRoadkill, on 24 January 2014 - 10:45 AM, said:

Crying over "capwarriors" may have been part of it, too, but I distinctly remember c-bill earnings being altered specifically to discourage farming.


You mean like all those old diesel submarines?



how are they farming damage, if they join and quit a match. What are you talking about bud?

Its simply because people didn't like the fast cap wins in assault, because they prefer to fight and brawl, and supposedly earn cbills....

And like I said, I know your genius rocket scientist and all, but most people judge skill by damage and kills. Meaning good aim, sitatuional awareness and tactics.

BUT, that shoudln't nescessarily mean top score or cbills, because even you realize, the guy in conquest who has a high win/loss ratio for always helping his team ensure victory by capping has just as much worth in that game mode.

Noone needs a complicated algorithm or fancy equation. They just need to adjust the cbills and rank people accordingly in each game mode. That is what people play the game for, that is how PGI based their game.

Edited by RichAC, 24 January 2014 - 10:51 AM.


#315 Roadkill

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:52 AM

View PostRichAC, on 24 January 2014 - 10:25 AM, said:

People are not playing to win in a game with no incentives to do so.

Been thinking about this.

At least until CW comes out, MWO is just a casual game. There's no point to winning or losing because there's nothing to win or lose.

Back in 8 vs 8 when it was relatively easy for 3rd party organizations to hold unsanctioned tournaments, people played hard in order to practice for those competitions. But it's really tough to organize those tournaments now so most of them have stopped. Which means there's no reason for serious players to practice. Which in turn means that most of the matches played are just people goofing off or grinding c-bills. (Or stroking their e-peens, but we'll ignore that for now.)

I think a lot of the frustration comes from the fact that there really is no point. We want there to be a point. We want MWO to be more than just a casual game used only to goof off. But right now that just isn't the case.

Hopefully CW will arrive in time to give the serious players a reason to come back and play again.

View PostRussianWolf, on 24 January 2014 - 10:47 AM, said:


I was hoping you'd say that.

Diesel Subs use electric motors for propulsion. The Diesel is used only on the surface to recharge the batteries used to power the electric motors.

Which doesn't change the fact that it works.

#316 RichAC

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:53 AM

View PostRoadkill, on 24 January 2014 - 10:51 AM, said:

Been thinking about this.

At least until CW comes out, MWO is just a casual game. There's no point to winning or losing because there's nothing to win or lose.

Back in 8 vs 8 when it was relatively easy for 3rd party organizations to hold unsanctioned tournaments, people played hard in order to practice for those competitions. But it's really tough to organize those tournaments now so most of them have stopped. Which means there's no reason for serious players to practice. Which in turn means that most of the matches played are just people goofing off or grinding c-bills. (Or stroking their e-peens, but we'll ignore that for now.)

I think a lot of the frustration comes from the fact that there really is no point. We want there to be a point. We want MWO to be more than just a casual game used only to goof off. But right now that just isn't the case.

Hopefully CW will arrive in time to give the serious players a reason to come back and play again.



You didn't answer the question. How do you consider joining and quitting a match farming damage?

No matter how much people get paid for damage done. They still consider damage done on the scoreboard = more skill. And thats why i believe it was changed.

12v12 is not casual. If it was a tourney with a static team you could use your fancy ELo algorithm. But the problem is noone plays it. I think alot of people in this game are in for a rude awakening when alot of their delusions about CW and weight limits is not going to be any different at all.

The point of this game is cbills. The same reason Lebron James plays basketball. TO get PAID.

But as we keep saying, there is more worth then just damage in assault and conquest, and now that we have skirmish they should be adjusted accordingly so people play those modes like the devs intended.

If someone wants to cap assault in 2 mins. If they win they should get paid for it. If people have a problem with it, they can play skirmish.

Edited by RichAC, 24 January 2014 - 10:59 AM.


#317 RussianWolf

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:54 AM

View PostRoadkill, on 24 January 2014 - 10:52 AM, said:



Which doesn't change the fact that it works.

Not as a propulsion system in this case. Wrong environment.

#318 Roadkill

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:58 AM

View PostRichAC, on 24 January 2014 - 10:48 AM, said:

how are they farming damage, if they join and quit a match. What are you talking about bud?

They aren't. Back before it was changed, people would farm wins/losses. Not damage. They could make more c-bills by simply joining game after game, waiting for it to launch, then either dying swiftly or simply exiting. Switch mechs, drop in another game, rinse, repeat.

That's no longer effective because more c-bills are awarded for damage (i.e. participating) than just for the win or loss.

RichAC said:

most people judge skill by damage and kills. Meaning good aim, sitatuional awareness and tactics.

Sure. Doesn't mean it's smart. :ph34r: It's just the only publicly visible way to stroke their e-peens. If Elo rankings were public, I suspect people would care about them.

RichAC said:

BUT, that shoudln't nescessarily mean top score or cbills, because even you realize, the guy in conquest who has a high win/loss ratio for always helping his team ensure victory by capping has just as much worth in that game mode.

Noone needs a complicated algorithm or fancy equation. They just need to adjust the cbills and rank people accordingly in each game mode. That is what people play the game for, that is how PGI based their game.

Sure, absolutely. There are lots of things that need fixing, and I agree 100% that rewards are one of those things. Role warfare isn't fully implemented yet. Hopefully that will help balance out the rewards for the guy who stood on a hill and directed his teammates to victory. But right now that guy's not being appropriately rewarded, despite some of the efforts that PGI has made in that direction.

#319 RussianWolf

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 10:59 AM

View PostRichAC, on 24 January 2014 - 10:53 AM, said:



You didn't answer the question. How do you consider joining and quitting a match farming damage?

No matter how much people get paid for damage done. They still consider damage done on the scoreboard = more skill.

12v12 is not casual. If it was a tourney with a static team you could use your fancy ELo algorithm. But the problem is noone plays it. I think alot of people in this game are in for a rude awakening when alot of their delusions about CW and weight limits don't affect the outcome of their games at all.

The point of this game is cbills. The same reason Lebron James plays basketball. TO get PAID.

But as we keep saying, there is more worth then just damage in assault and conquest, and now that we have skirmish they should be adjusted accordingly so people play those modes like the devs intended.

If someone wants to cap assault in 2 mins. If they win they should get paid for it. If people have a problem with it, they can play skirmish.

pretty sure they changed the cbill rate because they wanted to slow down how fast people could buy mechs. Slowing people down makes it slightly more likely that some will buy using MC (as stupid as that sounds).

#320 Roadkill

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Posted 24 January 2014 - 11:01 AM

View PostRussianWolf, on 24 January 2014 - 10:54 AM, said:


Not as a propulsion system in this case. Wrong environment.

I didn't say it was a propulsion system. Just that it works, which it does.

View PostRichAC, on 24 January 2014 - 10:53 AM, said:

You didn't answer the question. How do you consider joining and quitting a match farming damage?

I never said it was.

Joining and quitting a match was farming c-bills, not damage. And back when c-bill rewards were higher for wins and losses, it was a highly effective way to make money.

Why would anyone farm damage? That makes no sense.





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